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Fed Officials Saw Start of Subprime Crisis in August 2007 | Cross River Real Estate
Federal Reserve officials in August 2007 saw the beginnings of the crisis in subprime mortgages and concluded that the U.S. economy would be able to withstand it, transcripts from their 2007 meetings show.
“Well-capitalized banks and opportunistic investors will come in and fill the gap, restoring credit flows to nonfinancial businesses and to the vast majority of households that can service their debts,” Donald Kohn, then vice chairman of the board, said in Aug. 2007 according to transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings released today in Washington.
The transcripts show the committee’s slow grasp on the enormity of contagion that was to spread throughout global markets as a result of billions of dollars in low-quality housing assets that had been securitized into bonds and sold to banks and investors worldwide.
“The odds are that the market will stabilize,” Bernanke told the committee in Aug. 2007, according to the transcripts from that year. “This restrictive effect could come in various magnitudes. It could be moderate, or it could be more severe, and we are just going to have to monitor how it adjusts over time.”
Concern about capital losses from toxic mortgage securities froze interbank lending markets and prompted runs against major investment banks. The Fed and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rescued Bear Stearns Cos. in March 2008, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed into bankruptcy that September. Both Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley converted to bank holding companies to access backup funding from the discount window.
Rate Unchanged
U.S. central bankers kept their benchmark lending rate unchanged at their regularly scheduled meeting on Aug. 7, 2007, saying in their statement that “the predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.”
Fed officials did have a legitimate inflation worry in 2007. Revised data shows the personal consumption expenditures price index rising at a 3.5 percent rate for the year ending that December. The unemployment rate hit a low of 4.4 percent in March and May. Still, financial markets were beginning to unravel.
via bloomberg.com
“Sand States” are Still the Wettest | Cross River Real Estate
Some 10.7 million homeowners, or 22 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage, were in negative equity at the end of the third quarter of 2012, down by 100,000 from the second quarter. But the “sand states”, the states that dominated foreclosures for years, still account for a lion’s share of underwater borrowers.
With the addition of 100,000 borrowers, the total number of borrowers who moved from negative equity to positive equity by September reached 1.4 million year-to-date. An additional 2.3 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity in their home, referred to as near-negative equity, at the end of the third quarter, according to a new analysis from CoreLogic.
Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 26.8 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide in the third quarter of 2012, down from 27 percent at the end of the second quarter in 2012. Nationally, negative equity decreased from $689 billion at the end of the second quarter in 2012 to $658 billion at the end of the third quarter, a decrease of $31 billion. This decrease was driven in large part by an improvement in house price levels. This dollar amount represents the total value of all homes currently underwater nationally.
Rising home values also pushed the equity Americans have in their homes higher than at it was at the onset of the housing crash five years ago, according to the December HUD Scorecard. Homeowners’ equity reached $7714.3 billion, a 5.2 percent increase over the second quarter and an 18 percent increase over the level of $6526.9 in the third quarter of 20011. In 2007, homeowners’ equity reached $1.02 trillion, but fell to $7050.9 billion in 2008, according to the quarterly Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report.
Negative equity has been a major cause of foreclosures and short sales. Even three years after the height of the foreclosure flood in 2010, a handful of states that were reasonable then for the majority of the foreclosures are the same states that today are home to an overabundance of underwater homes.
Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgaged properties in negative equity at 56.9 percent, followed by Florida (42.1 percent), Arizona (38.6 percent), Georgia (35.6 percent) and Michigan (32 percent). These top five states combined account for 34 percent of the total amount of negative equity in the U.S.
Of the total $658 billion in aggregate negative equity, first liens without home equity loans accounted for $323 billion aggregate negative equity, while first liens with home equity loans accounted for $334 billion.
Third quarter highlights included:
- 6.6 million upside-down borrowers hold first liens without home equity loans. The average mortgage balance for this group of borrowers is $214,000. The average underwater amount is $49,000.
- 4.1 million upside-down borrowers possess both first and second liens. The average mortgage balance for this group of borrowers is $298,000.The average underwater amount is $82,000.
- Approximately 41 percent of borrowers with first liens without home equity loans had loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of 80 percent or higher and approximately 61 percent of borrowers with first liens and home equity loans had combined LTVs of 80 percent or higher.
- At the end of the third quarter 2012, 17.1 million borrowers possessed qualifying LTVs between 80 and 125 percent for the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) under the original requirements first introduced in March 2009. The lifting of the 125 percent LTV cap via HARP 2.0 opens the door to another 4.6 million borrowers.
5 Awesomely Bad Listing Photos | Cross River Real Estate
Clients are Worth More than Customers | Cross River Homes
Many real estate agents today create temporary relationships with home buyers and sellers. Agents provide transaction services, take buyers from property search to home closing; or take sellers from property listings to home closings. But when the closing is completed, most agents hand over the house keys and move on to the next hot prospect. It’s the nature of sales.
Some agents keep in touch with past customers by sending trinkets, jam, calendars, anniversary cards and holiday greetings. But too often, past customers are neglected as a prime source for future transactions.
When you neglect or ignore a happy, well-treated, well-served customer, you give up a great deal of hidden value in the form of client goodwill. Immediately after a successful real estate transaction, a satisfied customer is prepared to become your client for life. A customer becomes your client when you pro-actively provide products and services distributed throughout the years in between transactions: newsletters, information reports, market alerts, product discounts, seminar invitations and other useful information about your local housing market.
You now have a long-term, professional relationship with these home owners or sellers. They’re impressed that you treat them well and fairly, even though the transaction is complete. You become their real estate agent – the name they know and the professional they recommend.
Indeed, past clients recommend you to family, friends and neighbors, generating quality referrals and prospecting leads. And expect these well-maintained clients to buy or sell more real estate using you as their “insider” authority. The goodwill factor stays with happy clients years after the sale, when you reach out and maintain interest and contact.
Now, this sounds good in theory, but you don’t have enough time to provide services to past customers. You have to cut expenses, generate and convert leads so that you generate income today, not five years down the road.
Not to worry, the client approach gives you the best of both worlds. You focus on making money today, while obtaining clients for tomorrow. You do both because the time and cost of client management is insignificant when weighed against the benefits you derive.
Agents continue to use traditional marketing channels such as online lead generation services, postcards and mailers, open houses, local newspaper advertisements, local real estate listing hand-outs and telemarketing to focus their near-term activity on converting leads to customers and fulfilling customer transactions.
Now let’s look at the client-based approach. Growing a client business is based on the concept of “self generating” referrals and leads, accomplished by creating a large network of exposure points, which, in turn generate more referrals and leads naturally, organically.
For example, an agent who conducts a seminar on foreclosure sales to an audience of 100 people creates an exposure point because once the seminar is over, the power and reach of your expertise and authority spreads by word of mouth – the best advertising an agent has.
One hundred seminar attendees now have a favorable opinion of the agent. Each tells family, friends, neighbors and colleagues about the agent. In turn, some of these people tell others and your reputation grows virally. A one-hour seminar creates a self-generating process of referrals and leads.
The fact that a client-based approach creates self-generating referrals is a bonanza for today’s ambitious agents. According to a recent survey conducted by HomeGain, real estate agents believe that referrals are the most effective marketing strategy to acquire new clients.
Clients Eventually Generate More Business
If you keep clients for life, they’ll ultimately naturally generate more commission income for your business practice, while you are focused on generating short-term customer business. Here’s why:
A meaningful percentage of an agent’s book of clients will eventually purchase a trade-up or trade-down property, organically generating more business for the agent and agency.
A percentage of clients will eventually purchase a resort property, giving the agent the referral fee from another agent in a different location.
A percentage of clients purchase investment properties, giving the agent all of these transactions.
Satisfied clients refer their agent to family, friends, and neighbors, growing the agent’s client base. This word of mouth exposure expands on its own as the agent continues to provide advice and counsel.
And finally, serving a large number of clients in a relatively small community gets the agent recognized as highly credible with a solid reputation.
Simply stated, clients are worth more than customers-over time.
New social search engine focuses on real estate | Cross River Real Estate
When searching on social media networks, it’s often difficult to decipher what’s legitimate and what isn’t. However, a new search engine is entering the scene, one that is powered entirely by the Facebook API.
Curaytor organized tens of thousand of conversations from various groups on Facebook about topics such as technology products worth investing in, business tips and companies that should be avoided at all costs. The engine also allows web users with an interest in real estate to find conversations related to housing.
The latest search engine also hand picks its favorite discussions, which will be labeled as “staff picks.” Curaytor also uses a simple tagging system to make groups of conversations on the same topic easily findable.
Curaytor will begin by focusing on the real estate industry, but plans to eventually expand to other topics.
To get a better understanding of the search engine, watch the video below.
via housingwire.com
2013 Autos: Mileage Matters | Cross River NY Realtor
“Fuel economy is the No. 1 concern of buyers,” says Ford’s new Chief Operating Officer Mark Fields, and that’s all the more true for real estate practitioners, who spend a good part of their week behind the wheel. The latest in a long-running series of studies by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute finds that the typical car is now delivering better mileage than ever before. But the better news is that you don’t necessarily have to sacrifice comfort, convenience, or legroom to improve your efficiency.
Consider the new-for-2013 Porsche 911 Carrera 4S. The all-wheel-drive sports car delivers a marked improvement in power compared to the outgoing model, even as mileage jumps more than 15 percent. You can tell a similar story about almost every new product on the market. As we earlier noted, the new three-row Nissan Pathfinder gains 30 percent compared to the old 2012 model.
There are a variety of reasons behind these improvements. Even conventional gas-powered products makers are slashing vehicle weight, and the general rule of thumb is that every 100 pounds translates into about one extra mile per gallon. The industry also is migrating to more advanced powertrain designs, such as the direct injection used in the new Honda Accord V-6 and the turbocharging technology that’s at the heart of the various Ford EcoBoost engines. Ford will offer a new 1.0-liter EcoBoost on the updated Fiesta model that will deliver significantly more power than the current 1.6-liter naturally aspirated engine, even though mileage expected to be well in excess of 40 miles per gallon will likely be the highest of any non-hybrid model sold in the United States.
That said, expect to see more hybrids and other battery-based vehicles in 2013 and beyond. By the end of the new model year, virtually every maker in the U.S. market will have at least one “electrified” offering. Toyota and its Lexus brand will offer hybrid versions of virtually every model. Toyota has also just launched its first pure battery-electric vehicle, the RAV4-EV, as well as a plug-in version of the Prius.
Honda will add a plug-in version of the Accord and a full battery-powered Fit. Nissan, meanwhile, is working up a hybrid Altima and will have a battery car for Infiniti in 2014, though the Leaf will remain its primary electrified model this coming model year.
Detroit is expanding its battery-model mix as well. GM’s Chevy brand will add the new Spark EV minicar alongside the Volt plug-in, currently the nation’s best-selling advanced propulsion vehicle. Ford is rolling out an array of new battery-based products, such as the C-Max and Fusion hybrids and Energi plug-ins.
Japanese makers were first to market with hybrid technology, and Toyota remains the dominant player from a sales perspective — especially having expanded its Prius “family” to include the plug-in and the new compact Prius C hybrid. But Europeans are rapidly expanding their lineup; even Porsche is offering hybrid versions of its Panamera four-door coupe and Cayenne crossover models. Among more mainstream offerings, there’s the new Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid. That said, European makers are well aware that American motorists have less than fully embraced battery technology so far. Add all the hybrids, plug-ins, and BEVs together, and they still account for less than 3 percent of the total U.S. new car market.
No wonder, then, that European makers are expanding their lineup of diesel powertrains. Audi will adding four new models for 2013. Also, VW is trying to boost capacity at its new U.S. assembly plant. Currently, about 20 percent of its midsize Passat models are coming with diesel technology. VW Group of America CEO Jonathan Browning believes that could soon top 30 percent. For those who tend to do more highway driving, diesels tend to deliver better mileage than most hybrids — and even in urban settings they’re close, while sacrificing little in terms of performance.
3 Core Link Baiting Strategies for 2013 | Katonah NY Real Estate
The search engines are always changing, but link baiting strategies never die. Here are the three core elements of an effective link bait campaign, which will only be more vital in the year ahead:
1. Understand Shareability
A link is, fundamentally, really just a social share from somebody who happens to run a website. While the platform (HTML) is different, the psychological forces in play are the same. Content that goes viral on social networks will tend to attract links as well.
And, if you pay attention to social networks, you’ll notice that there are definite patterns. Most viral content has at least one of the following attributes:
It’s opinionated
The popularity of conspiracy theories on the Internet is perhaps one of the best examples of how bold opinions attract attention and propagate rapidly. A strong stance can alienate you from a large portion of your potential audience, but it can also expand your existing reach and strengthen your following. It’s probably best to stick to values you actually believe in, of course, to avoid a PR disaster at some point down the road.
It’s funny
The humor site Cracked currently has over 2.3 million Facebook likes and a Domain Authority of 88. They have accomplished this simply by collecting interesting facts and making them hilarious.
It’s insider information
The Wall Street Journal linked to WordStream, an online ad-consulting firm, because they published their own proprietary data about Google. The original source of new information tends to attract more links than the site that re-purposes it, unless they are extremely good at re-purposing content, or already have a larger following.
It’s cute
Cats rule the internet, and according to this article on the science of Internet cats, this is largely because they’re cute and vulnerable. Cute pictures and videos of babies and dogs also abound on the Web. There’s something about cuteness that demands to be shared.
It’s bizarre and quirky
Gawker hired Neetzan Zimmerman to produce the viral content that, as Gawker’s primary editor said, “for the sake of the other writers, [is] a necessary cog.” Zimmerman, who created The Daily What, says “When something goes viral, it tends to be something that is not expected to go viral.” Headlines like “This Pizza Has a Crust Made Out of Cheeseburgers,” and “Dead And Buried Hamster Emerges From Grave Alive And Well And Hungry For Brains,” tend to go viral more than what would traditionally be called “headline news.”
As Zimmerman said, A “taxidermied cat being that’s been turned into a helicopter—that’s clearly going to be successful, right? Because it’s got that element of shock, it’s got that element of a cat, you know, it’s basically just tailored to the Internet.”
It should hopefully be obvious from all of this that shareability is only one component of success. A piece of content that’s designed only to go viral is also likely to be poorly branded, irrelevant, and unlikely to lead to conversions down the road. For some more examples of successful link bait campaigns, we recommend taking a look at these 10 examples from WebPageFX.
2. Brainstorm Frequently
What should also be obvious from all of the above is that linkbait demands originality in some form. If the information isn’t new, the presentation must be. If the topic is “boring,” it takes creativity to transform it into something bizarre, quirky, or hilarious.
And while “cuteness” doesn’t necessarily demand creativity, if you keep pushing that button too often, it’s going to be seen as obvious pandering. Besides, it will still take creativity to transform a branding message into something even remotely cute.
Here are a few brainstorming tips to help you launch a successful link bait campaign:
Small groups are best
Put too many people in a brainstorming meeting and most of them won’t contribute. Groups of three to five are better for group brainstorming. In larger groups, people forget their ideas before they’re called on, and it’s difficult to get into a productive rhythm.
Individual brainstorming is a must
Some of the brainstorming should be done by individuals brainstorming alone. Many psychological experiments on the subject have demonstrated individual brainstorming sessions result in more ideas. Group brainstorming is a necessity in order make sure ideas are aligned with business goals and long-term strategy, but individual brainstorming is an important component that shouldn’t be ignored.
Try “brainwriting” instead of brainstorming
Studies have shown that this technique beats the pants off of traditional brainstorming. The process is simple. For three minutes, everybody writes at least three ideas. Then they pass their sheet to the left, read the previous ideas, and again record as many ideas as they can for three minutes. Keep doing this for either a set amount of time or until the group feels its ideas are exhausted.
Write it all down
Whether you’re brainstorming alone or in a group, write down every single idea. As we mentioned over at ProBlogger, psychology suggests that we reject creative ideas, even when we think we want them, and rationalize this by telling ourselves the idea wasn’t creative. Do not reject any idea that comes to mind. There’s plenty of time to weed through the list later.
Encourage constructive debate
This probably goes against everything you’ve ever heard about brainstorming, but the science is clear. Debate has a positive effect on brainstorming. While you should definitely record every single idea, debates paradoxically make people feel more liberated, and more comfortable sharing minority viewpoints. This allows more ideas to make their way into the discussion. Don’t get carried away with this, of course.
Mix ideas
If there is only one thing you should take away from all of this, it’s that mixing and matching ideas together is the best way to come up with new ideas. Don’t confine yourself entirely to your niche: Pull in ideas, concepts, facts, and stories from other disciplines in order to spice things up and draw analogies with your own subject matter.
Clearly, some of these tips contradict each other (debate vs. brainwriting vs. working alone, for example). Use more than one brainstorming method and measure the results. You may find that some techniques work better than others, or you may find that you need many different types of brainstorming in order to achieve the right variety of ideas.
3. Find Effective Sources of Information
Sometimes research comes before brainstorming, and sometimes it comes afterward. Both methods work fine, but result in different kinds of posts.
When the research comes first, it provides the raw material to combine and mash up into a unique idea. The advantage here is that you already have some idea of what facts and elements are going to go into the post. The disadvantage is that your ideas will be somewhat confined by the body of knowledge you’ve researched.
When the ideas come first, it forces you to stretch in your research and pull information from more unique sources. This can result in more unique ideas. The downside, however, is that you may discover the facts contradict your original idea, and that making your idea work would simply stretch things too far.
Hopefully, it’s clear that you need both kinds of posts, and that it’s actually a good idea to do some research both before and after brainstorming in most cases.
As we said before, “insider information” is far more likely to go viral than a redundant article. You can’t always be the next Bob Woodward, but you can get your information from places most people aren’t willing to look:
Google Scholar
Peer reviewed articles and scholarly papers aren’t easy to read, but that’s precisely what makes them so useful as a source of information. There’s a lot of information contained in these texts that has never made it’s way into the blogosphere, and most of it is only “boring” because it’s presented in a very technical way. Pull out the most surprising facts and the key takeaways and you’ve got yourself some “insider” information, of a sort.
Your Client
This isn’t the first time we’ve mentioned how useful your client can be as a source of information, and it won’t be the last. Odds are your client has a proprietary database of some kind. If you can, take advantage of it as a source of raw data.
Industry Experts (and People in General)
Get in touch with experts in your niche. The well known ones can help with exposure, and the less well known source can also offer some “from the front lines” information that you can’t find anywhere else. Watch the nightly news and notice how even an interview with a random person on the street can help a bit with credibility. There’s no reason to limit sources of information to your own research. Mine people for ideas, opinions, and information. Be a journalist.
The Library
Yes, it still exists. Believe it or not, this is also a great place to look if you want to find information that’s never made it’s way online. Yes, this still happens sometimes!
Anything That Could be Considered “Raw Data”
Whether it’s government statistics or an industry survey, raw data that’s never been turned into an article or blog post is one of your most useful “insider sources.”
Other Disciplines
We might be repeating ourselves a bit by saying this, but we can’t emphasize it enough. While the other research strategies demand looking through dense material, this one allows you to skim lighter blog posts and news articles and use them as insights for your own field. This makes the research part easier, but the creative part becomes more involved. This is the tradeoff.
Conclusion
To produce linkbait, you need to “get” the Internet, and understand why things go viral. It takes a comprehensive brainstorming strategy and a keen understanding of where to find original data in order to pull this off. The sweet spot between these three strategies is the launching pad for your most successful link bait campaign.
Did you learn anything new from this post, and do you have something to add? Let’s keep this going in the comments, and please pass this along if you liked our contribution. Thanks!
Image Credit: Shutterstock / Melpomene
Facebook vs. Google: It’s on in search | Cross River Realtor
Facebook’s new “graph search” is the beginning of a long-term attempt to strike at Google’s most lucrative product.
When Google unveiled free word processing and spreadsheet apps back in 2007, the company wasn’t trying to immediately topple Microsoft’s Office suite. After all, Google’s apps were―and still are―inferior to powerful programs like Word and Excel. But their launch was the beginning of a long-term campaign to nibble away at one of Microsoft’s core franchises. In fiscal 2012 Microsoft’s business division, which includes Office, brought in $24 billion. But there is little doubt that it would be even larger had Google not offered a cheaper alternative now used by millions of businesses.
Facebook (FB) is taking a page from Google’s (GOOG) playbook. The social networking giant on Tuesday unveiled a search service. It is not aimed at toppling Google from its perch as the king of Web search any time soon. Instead, it is the opening round in a long-term campaign to erode Google’s monopoly over the most powerful and profitable business on the Internet. If successful, Facebook’s so-called “graph search” will offer users an alternative to Google that may work better for many types of queries. In due time, it could turn into a tidy business for Facebook.
“Graph search is not Web search,” Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s co-founder and chief executive, said during a packed press conference at the company’s headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif.
Indeed, Facebook only searches for things that have happened on its sprawling site. For now, it concentrates on four types of searches: people, photos, interests and places. But the types of queries possible with Facebook’s new service are innovative and useful. Users can “find friends who like soccer” or “find friends who like soccer in your hometown.” Users can find all the photos they’ve liked or all the photos their friends have taken in Paris. They can find restaurants in San Francisco liked by friends who are locals, or by friends who are Indian―say if they’re in the mood for spicy food. Users can’t do that on Google.
The promise of this kind of service—which, by the way, was built by a team of 50 engineers led by two ex-Googlers—is enormous. For starters, it could broaden the utility of Facebook, turning it from a tool of interaction into one that helps users discover new things. And Google, which is trying to be the place where people find not only other Web pages, but also restaurants or plumbers or HD televisions, should be worried. (Google declined to comment.)
Yet Facebook’s caution―graph search is still in beta or test mode, and is only being rolled out to a very small fraction of the site’s more than 1 billion users―is warranted. The company’s demo was dazzling, but the queries were for users who were also Facebook employees. These are Facebook “super-users” who likely check in every place they go, and click the Like button on every book, song or brand they, well, like.
I’d venture a guess that the majority of Facebookers are more parsimonious in their usage of the site and may not regularly share what they’re reading or listening to, let alone recommend their plumber, dentist or contractor to their closest 500 friends. Without that information, their contribution to the search graph will be limited. I have hundreds of Facebook friends, yet the answer to the query “pizza places in Oakland that my friends like” was hardly satisfying—it listed just one result. (Regular Facebook users can request access to graph search here.)
And of course, Google has never been known for taking its eye off the ball when it comes to search. The company already has a social network in Google+. While it lacks the level of activity that Facebook enjoys, it could readily serve as the basis for Google to build a rival graph search service. (As Fortune chronicled in its 2011 cover story, this battle has been a long time coming.)
The biggest understatement of the press conference may well have been Zuckerberg’s response to the question of monetization. “This could potentially be a business over time,” he said. For now, graph search has no ads. But if people start searching for restaurants of stores in large numbers, plenty of those businesses will be willing to pay Facebook in exchange for preferential placement in search results. Zuckerberg said Facebook would focus on improving the product, and rolling it out on mobile phones and in other languages, before it considers taking ads.
“This is one of the coolest things that I think we have done in a while,” Zuckerberg said. Many Facebook analysts agree. If Facebook appeared beleaguered after its disastrous IPO, Zuck’s crew is gunning for Google again, reminding its biggest rival that while it was down for while it certainly wasn’t out.
Oh, and as the two giants battle it out in the coming years, there is bound to be collateral damage. On Tuesday, shares of Yelp (YELP), which risks being tripped up by Facebook’s graph search sooner than Google will, dropped more than 6%.
‘Spider-Man’ Star Apartment Makes Debut Appearance | Cross River Realtor
via zillow.com