In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses unemployment insurance claims.
- Today’s data on initial claims for unemployment insurance and call back service brings some hope to the employment picture, following last week’s disappointing employment numbers.
- Initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending July 7 fell by 26 thousand from the previous week, with 350 thousand claims filed. The 4-week moving average, which is less volatile, shows a decline in initial claims. Still, the gains are very modest, with jobless claims still at levels higher than in the beginning of the year.
- As of the week of July 7, the insured unemployed (those with continuing claims) is at 3.3 million. The number of insured unemployed has been declining, which indicates that these unemployed get rehired. Still, the economy has to generate more jobs at a pace fast enough to get the unemployed rehired as well as absorb new labor market entrants, which average about 150 thousand a month (based on June 2011-June 2012 civilian labor force data). Notwithstanding, we expect at least 1 million net jobs in 2012 which represent a potential base of homebuyers.