Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won’t fade away in the fall and winter because  an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today’s housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

That’s the thesis of a new outlook on the housing economy published today by CoreLogic’s chief economy, Mark Fleming.

Noting that CoreLogic’s price index shows a 4.6 percent increase, the housing is now a significant positive sector contributing to GDP growth, Fleming said that the recovery is spreading geographically as prices are increasing in all but six states.   New home sales are up 24 percent over a year ago and existing home sales are up 11 percent.

Fleming said the biggest constraint supply is the 22 percent of mortgaged owners who owe more on their homes than they are worth and the 45 percent of all mortgaged homeowners who are “under-equitied” and cannot afford a 20 percent down payment on a conventional mortgage.

He predicts prices will decline 0.9 percent in November and 1.2 percent in December as growth decelerates, and the year will end with an implied growth rate of 5.5 percent this year.

“Why?  Price gains observed on a month-over-month basis between February and May were the strongest we have seen since the beginning of the series in 1976 and were driven by the uniqueness of this recovery” Fleming said.

“Simply trending out the fall and winter fade in growth sill results in a housing market that has appreciated more than 5 percent in 2012,” he said.

Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won’t fade away in the fall and winter because  an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today’s housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

That’s the thesis of a new outlook on the housing economy published today by CoreLogic’s chief economy, Mark Fleming.

Noting that CoreLogic’s price index shows a 4.6 percent increase, the housing is now a significant positive sector contributing to GDP growth, Fleming said that the recovery is spreading geographically as prices are increasing in all but six states.   New home sales are up 24 percent over a year ago and existing home sales are up 11 percent.

Fleming said the biggest constraint supply is the 22 percent of mortgaged owners who owe more on their homes than they are worth and the 45 percent of all mortgaged homeowners who are “under-equitied” and cannot afford a 20 percent down payment on a conventional mortgage.

He predicts prices will decline 0.9 percent in November and 1.2 percent in December as growth decelerates, and the year will end with an implied growth rate of 5.5 percent this year.

“Why?  Price gains observed on a month-over-month basis between February and May were the strongest we have seen since the beginning of the series in 1976 and were driven by the uniqueness of this recovery” Fleming said.

“Simply trending out the fall and winter fade in growth sill results in a housing market that has appreciated more than 5 percent in 2012,” he said.

Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won’t fade away in the fall and winter because  an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today’s housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

That’s the thesis of a new outlook on the housing economy published today by CoreLogic’s chief economy, Mark Fleming.

Noting that CoreLogic’s price index shows a 4.6 percent increase, the housing is now a significant positive sector contributing to GDP growth, Fleming said that the recovery is spreading geographically as prices are increasing in all but six states.   New home sales are up 24 percent over a year ago and existing home sales are up 11 percent.

Fleming said the biggest constraint supply is the 22 percent of mortgaged owners who owe more on their homes than they are worth and the 45 percent of all mortgaged homeowners who are “under-equitied” and cannot afford a 20 percent down payment on a conventional mortgage.

He predicts prices will decline 0.9 percent in November and 1.2 percent in December as growth decelerates, and the year will end with an implied growth rate of 5.5 percent this year.

“Why?  Price gains observed on a month-over-month basis between February and May were the strongest we have seen since the beginning of the series in 1976 and were driven by the uniqueness of this recovery” Fleming said.

“Simply trending out the fall and winter fade in growth sill results in a housing market that has appreciated more than 5 percent in 2012,” he said.

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