Monthly Archives: June 2022

Housing affordability collapses to lowest level on record | Waccabuc Real Estate

Surging home prices and mortgage rates cut housing affordability by 29% over the last year, as measured by the National Association of Realtors.

  • It’s the sharpest year-over-year decline in affordability on record.

Why it matters: The cost of housing is a major source of irritation for the American public after two years of pandemic restrictions and persistent inflation.

A separate report from housing market research firm Black Knight published yesterday shows that the monthly principal and interest payment on an average-priced home, by a buyer who puts 20% down, has gone up by roughly $600 —44% — since the start of the year.

How it works: The drop in affordability is being driven by two components.

  • Surging house prices: One popular gauge of home prices known as the Case-Shiller index showed home prices posting their biggest ever year-on-year gain in March when they rose 20.6%.
  • Surging mortgage rates: Over the last year, the rate for a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has jumped from 3% to more than 5%.

What they’re saying: “Given 2022’s affordability collapse, these [home price appreciation] levels likely are at or near the peaks for this cycle. Key question is how much and how quickly they will decline,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a research note published on Friday.

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axios.com

Residential construction spending up 18.4% | Cross River Real Estate

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending rose 0.9% in April after an increase of 0.7% in March 2022. Spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $891.5 billion. Total private residential construction spending was 18.4% higher than a year ago.

These monthly gains are attributed to the strong growth of spending on improvements. Spending on improvements rose 1.5% in April, after a dip of 0.1% in March, as it was approaching summer, the best time of year to remodel. Single-family construction spending increased to a $477.7 billion annual pace in April, up by 0.5% over the upwardly revised March estimates. Multifamily construction spending rose 0.8% in April, after a decrease of 0.4% in March. Home building is still facing higher interest rates and supply-side headwinds.

The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates construction spending on single-family, multifamily and improvements have slowed down the pace since early 2022 under the pressure of supply-chain issues and elevated interest rates. Before the COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, single-family construction and home improvement experienced solid growth from the second half of 2019 to February 2020, and the quick rebound since July 2020. New multifamily construction spending has picked up the pace after a slowdown in the second half of 2019.

Private nonresidential construction spending decreased to $503.2 billion (SAAR) in April from the upwardly revised March estimates. And it was 10.1% higher than a year ago. The largest month-over-month nonresidential spending increase was made by the class of power ($1.6 billion), followed by transportation ($0.8 billion), and class of health care ($0.35 billion).

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eyeonhousing.org

Case Shiller home prices up 20.6% | Katonah Real Estate

National home prices grew at an unsustainable pace in March, reaching an all-time high. This indicates that the imbalanced market with strong demand and record-low inventory continued to put upward pressures on home prices. However, keep in mind this is a backward-looking reading.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 28.2% in March 2022, following a 27.4% increase in February. National home prices are now 60.7% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in March 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 20.6% annual gain in March, after a 20.0% increase in February. The year-over-year home price appreciation slowed a little during the last quarter of 2021, and accelerated in the first three months of 2022, before the spring home-buying season from April to June.

Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19.0% in March, following a 25.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 19.0% in March, following a 19.4% increase in February.

In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P CoreLogic reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in March. All 20 metro areas reported positive home price appreciation and their annual growth rates ranged from 8.8% to 57.1%. Among all 20 metro areas, fifteen metro areas exceeded the national average of 28.2%. Dallas led the way with a 57.1% increase, followed by Tampa with a 49.9% increase and Seattle with a 49.2% increase.

The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in February and in March 2022. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in February; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in March. Seven out of the 20 metro areas had a deceleration in home price growth, including Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Portland, and Seattle.

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eyeonhousing.org