Monthly Archives: January 2022

Slowing Fourth Quarter Sales Did Not Derail Record 2021 Housing Market | Mt Kisco Real Estate

WHITE PLAINS—Residential sales in 2021 in the counties served by OneKey MLS, Inc. reached a historic peak. This, despite a slowing of sales in the fourth quarter in all areas served by OneKey MLS with the exception of Bronx County.

Arguably, some of the slowdown can be attributed to the dearth of inventory in the counties north of New York City, while the “Bronx Tale” is more closely aligned to a return of buyers to the New York City market.

While the view of the market in terms of units sold and dollar volume is a positive one, it was a frustrating arena for many buyers who lost homes to higher bidders and for the practitioners dealing with client frustration and disappointment.

Bronx County had the largest percentage increase in residential sales at 61.4% year-over-year with 2,553 units sold as compared to 1,582 sales for 2020. Total residential sales in the counties to the north were more in line with each other with Rockland County leading the group with an increase of 19.3% (3,631 units compared to 3,044 units in 2020); Westchester, a close second at 19.1% (11,855 units compared to 9,955 units for 2020); followed by Orange County with a 16% increase (5,406 residential sales compared to 4,662 sales in 2020); Putnam experienced a 10.6% increase over 2020 (1,605 units compared to 1,451) and Sullivan County had a 9.6% increase for 2021 (1,393 compared to 1,271 in 2020).

Sales of single-family residential units increased across the board with Bronx County sales increasing an eye-opening 45.8% (716 units vs. 491 units for 2020). The median price of a single-family residence in Bronx County increased 8.5% to $575,000. The largest percentage price increase for a single-family home occurred in Sullivan County with a 25.3% increase to $244,400 from $195,000 in 2020. Notably, Westchester County, with the highest prices in the region, had the smallest percentage increase in median price for the year at 6.1% ($780,000 as compared to $735,000 in 2020) and actually experienced a slight decrease (-0.8%) in median price for the fourth quarter. This may be indicative of price increases beginning to moderate.

Orange County has seen consistent increases in the single-family median price with a year-over-year increase of 16.5% ($367,000 compared to $315,000 in 2020). Orange County single-family home sales increased by 11.2 % for the year to 4,444 units (compared to 3,996 in 2020) despite a drop of 20.7% in the fourth quarter.

In Rockland County the single-family median sale price increased 12% to $560,000 (from $500,00 in 2020) and Putnam County saw its single-family median price rise 15.8% to $440,000 (from $380,000 in 2020).

In terms of percentages, condominium, multi-family (2-4 family), and in Westchester County, co-op sales as well, all outpaced the increases in single-family units and, in most instances, the percent of median price increase. In Westchester County, where co-op sales lagged in 2020, they increased 36.3% to 2,129 units (from 1,562 in 2020). Affordability is the most prevalent reason for these choices particularly in view of the price increases in single-family dwellings. For many suburban purchasers, condos and co-ops represent a means to build equity to purchase a single-family residence.

When focusing solely on the fourth quarter residential sales numbers, they reflect a return to the more typical seasonality in the market, which disappeared in the fourth quarter of 2021. While there were significant decreases in the number of residential sales in all counties, except the Bronx, when comparing the 2021 fourth quarter to the 2020 fourth quarter sales, it is important to remember that the fourth quarter 2020 sales were fueled by a surge in buying activity in the second half of 2020 once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. A more realistic comparison would be to the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2018, and the 2021 fourth quarter residential sales numbers were significantly higher than either of those two years.

Indicators such as days on market were down significantly in all market areas. Homes selling close to or at list price and above list price were a relatively common event. Lack of inventory continues to be a problem with no meaningful resolution on the near horizon. With the Fed tightening monetary policy it is expected that mortgage rates will begin a steady rise in 2022. However, despite these headwinds, the real estate market in the New York City and greater suburban area, including the lower Hudson Valley, have shown remarkable resiliency in the last year and a half, and we expect a strong real estate market to continue into 2022.

With the exception of the second quarter of 2020, the real estate market has been an anomaly outperforming the economy. Sales and prices have enjoyed a trajectory which is likely unsustainable going forward, however the economy of the Hudson Valley continues to improve and grow more vibrant, which bodes well for real estate. It is likely that price increases will moderate and additional product will come on the market, which will sustain a strong market in the near term.

HGAR/OneKey® MLS 2021 Fourth Quarter Residential Real Estate Sales Report

Data provided by OneKey MLS, one of the largest Realtor subscriber-based MLS’s in the country, dedicated to servicing more than 46,310 real estate professionals that serve Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Sullivan, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. OneKey MLS was formed in 2018, following the merger of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service and the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island.

realestateindepth.com/news/

Mortgage rates hit 9-month high | South Salem Real Estate

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 3.33% last week and is now about half a percentage point higher than a year ago.
Applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% last week compared with two weeks ago and were 40% lower year over year.
Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell 4% from two weeks earlier and were 12% lower year over year

The economic damage from the omicron variant of the coronavirus is now expected to be less than initially thought, and that has interest rates back on their upward trajectory yet again. As a result, mortgage demand fell 2.7% to end 2021, compared with two weeks before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. [The MBA did not release application volume last week due to the holidays.]

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.33% at the end of last week from 3.27% two weeks before, with points rising to 0.48 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 47 basis points lower the same week one year ago.

As a result, applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% last week compared with two weeks ago and were 40% lower year over year. The refinance share of mortgage activity, however, increased to 65.4% of total applications from 63.9% the previous week, due to continued weakness in the purchase loan market.

“Mortgage rates continued to creep higher over the past two weeks, as markets maintained an optimistic view of the economy,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Refinance demand continues to dwindle, as many borrowers refinanced in 2020, and in early 2021.”

Rates continued to climb at the start of this week, rising sharply Tuesday to the highest level since early April of last year, according to Mortgage News Daily, which calculates daily rates as opposed to weekly averages.

Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell 4% from two weeks earlier and were 12% lower year over year. That was the weakest showing since October 2021. Home sales began pulling back in November, but more because of low inventory than high interest rates. Home prices also continue to gain compared with 2020, up just over 18% in November, according to CoreLogic.

“Despite supply and affordability challenges, 2021 was a record year for purchase originations,” said Kan. “MBA expects 2022 to be even stronger, with total purchase activity reaching $1.74 trillion.”

Home affordability plummeted in fourth quarter | Waccabuc Real Estate

Homeownership continues to swerve into unaffordable territory, with median-priced single-family homes becoming less affordable in three-quarters of the nation’s market, a report published by ATTOM Data Solutions last week said.

Per the report, between October to December 2021, median home prices in 440 of the 575 counties analyzed by the data vendor saw notable home-price growth. As a result, 77% of counties included in the report have now been labeled as less affordable by ATTOM, up from 39% of counties in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The data vendor also noted that in the third quarter of 2021, 428 counties from the same data set were labeled as less affordable, up from 224 counties in the fourth quarter of 2020.

On average, the median national home price grew by 17% over the past year to $317,500, according to the report.

Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM, said in a statement that the financial comfort zone for homebuyers continues to shrink as home prices rise and mortgage rates tick upwards.

“Historically low rates and rising wages are still big reasons why workers can meet or come very close to standard lending benchmarks in a majority of counties we analyze,” Teta said. “ But the portion of wages required for major ownership expenses nationwide is getting closer to levels where banks become less likely to offer home loans.”

ATTOM found that ownership costs have risen in the fourth quarter of 2021, with the typical home consuming 25.2% of the average national wage of $65,546. In comparison, the fourth quarter of 2020 saw ownership costs at 21.5%.

However, ATTOM noted that the latest level is still within the 28% standard lenders prefer for how much homeowners should spend on mortgage payments, home insurance and property taxes.

The report added that house hunters unscathed financially by the pandemic have buoyed housing costs, as they “surged into the market amid a combination of mortgage rates hovering around 3 percent and a desire to trade congested virus-prone areas for the perceived safety of a house and yard, as well as the space for growing work-at-home lifestyles.”

“Amid very uncertain times, with the pandemic again threatening the economy, we will keep watching this key measure of housing market stability,” Teta concluded.

housingwire.com/articles/

NY Among Top States Residents Are Fleeing From | Cross River Real Estate

The Pandemic Continued to Influence Americans’ Decisions to Move as They Relocated to Lower-Density Areas and Desired to be Closer to Family

Interactive Map: To understand inbound and outbound percentages for each state, use the legend. To view reasons for moving and demographic data, select the year and state that you would like to view using the dropdown menus. (If you are using a desktop computer, you can use your mouse to click and select a state.) Please note that percentages pertaining to demographic data may not always total 100% due to respondents having the ability to opt out of answering survey questions and/or to select more than one survey response per question.

United Van Lines released the company’s 45^th Annual National Movers Study today, which indicates Americans were on the move to lower-density areas and to be closer to their families throughout last year.

The annual study, which tracks the company’s exclusive data for customers’ state-to-state migration patterns, determined Vermont as the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration (74%) with United Van Lines. Topping the list of outbound locations was New Jersey (71%), which has held the spot for the past four years.

South Dakota (69%), South Carolina (63%), West Virginia (63%) and Florida (62%) were also revealed as the top inbound states for 2021. Meanwhile, states like Illinois (67%), New York (63%), Connecticut (60%) and California (59%), which have regularly appeared on the top outbound list in recent years, again ranked among states with the largest exoduses.

In addition to the state-by-state data, each year United Van Lines also conducts an accompanying survey to examine the motivations and influences for Americans’ interstate moves. This year’s survey results indicated 31.8% of Americans who moved did so in order to be closer to family – a new trend coming out of the pandemic as priorities and lifestyle choices shift. Additionally, 32.5% of Americans moved for a new job or job transfer, a significant decrease from 2015, when more than 60% of Americans cited a job or transfer.

“This new data from United Van Lines is indicative of COVID-19’s impact on domestic migration patterns, with 2021 bringing an acceleration of moves to smaller, midsized towns and cities,” Michael A. Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, said. “We’re seeing this not only occur because of Americans’ desire to leave high density areas due to risk of infection, but also due to the transformation of how we’re able to work, with more flexibility to work remote.”

What’s more, amid the pandemic, many Gen Xers are retiring (often at a younger age than past generations), joining the Baby Boomer generation. While many are retiring to states like Florida, United Van Lines’ data reveals they’re not necessarily heading to heavily populated cities like Orlando and Miami — they’re venturing to less dense places like Punta Gorda (81% inbound), Sarasota (79% inbound) and Fort Myers-Cape Coral (77% inbound). Similarly, in Oregon, cities including Medford-Ashland (83%) and Eugene-Springfield (79%) saw high inbound migration in 2021.

“For 45 years now, our annual United Van Lines study, with its data-driven insights, has allowed us to explore a deeper understanding of Americans’ overall migration patterns,” Eily Cummings, director of corporate communications at United Van Lines, said. “As the pandemic continues to impact our day-to-day, we’re seeing that lifestyle changes — including the increased ability to work from home — and wanting to be closer to family are key factors in why Americans are moving today.”

Moving In

The top inbound states of 2021 were:

Vermont
South Dakota
South Carolina
West Virginia
Florida
Alabama
Tennessee
Oregon
Idaho
Rhode Island

Of the top ten inbound states, six — Vermont, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alabama, Oregon and Idaho — are among the 20 least densely populated states in America, with less than 100 people per square mile. And, Tennessee and South Carolina are among the top 25.

Moving Out

The top outbound states for 2021 were:

New Jersey
Illinois
New York
Connecticut
California
Michigan
Massachusetts
Louisiana
Ohio
Nebraska

Balanced

Several states saw nearly the same number of residents moving inbound as outbound.

Kentucky and Wyoming are among these “balanced states.”

Since 1977, United Van Lines annually tracks migration patterns on a state-by-state basis. The 2021 study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. and ranks states based off the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

To access the study details and creative assets, use the link to the press kit at the top or bottom of the page.

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