Daily Archives: August 15, 2012

Waccabuc NY Real Estate | Investment Watch: How many people can you fit in a Portuguese apartment?

How many people can you fit in a Portuguese apartment? Hundreds, according to this month’s Investment Watch. The report, which ranks the level of interest in TheMoveChannel.com’s listings, saw investors piling into flats on the Albufeira coast in July.

The sea-view apartments were only built with two bedrooms, but buyers rushed to squeeze into the properties, despite the gloomy European economy.

Indeed, Portuguese house prices have dropped by over 11 per cent since last year, according to official figures, leaving the market with no immediate sign of recovery. But the low prices seem to have done the trick for the Faro resort, attracting over 2.5 times the number of enquiries received by TheMoveChannel.com’s second most popular property: a hotel investment in Leeds.

Buy-to-let property continued to prove popular among investors last month, with the 12 per cent yields generated by the Leeds hotel attracting slightly more attention than a development of student pods in Sunderland, which ranked in fourth place. More ambitious buyers went as far as Canada in search of a guaranteed monthly income – the country’s first ever appearance in the Investment Watch Top 10.

While returns remained a priority, though, investors showed they were no longer afraid to go back to the euro last month. Indeed, Spain accounted for two of the top 10 listings, thanks to La Manga’s rental properties, and Italy made its second consecutive monthly appearance as Lake Como apartments won on lifestyle appeal. But after months of the UK, USA and Brazil dominating TheMoveChannel.com enquiries, Portugal’s resort landed the biggest surprise punch, leaving buyers crowding into the two-bedroom flats little room to move.

TheMoveChannel.com director Dan Johnson comments: “Portugal has always been one of the most popular destinations for property buyers on TheMoveChannel.com, but no one expected apartments in Albufeira to receive the most enquiries in July. Apart from the UK, the only European country to top the Investment Watch chart this year has been Spain – and that was with a remarkable investment property. With the apartments’ offers limited until the end of August, were Faro’s low-priced flats enough to spark a one-off flashmob? Or are buyers finally starting to return to the Eurozone in bigger numbers?”

Owners mull fate of big West Side site | South Salem NY Real Estate

CBRE Group Inc. vice chairman Darcy Stacom has been retained to evaluate and possibly sell a huge development parcel on the West Side, across 11th Avenue from the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center.

The Imperatore family, which has had been involved in everything from real estate and shipping to running ferries, has owned the site along with partners for 28 years.

“We have engaged a broker but it is not on the market now,” said Edward Imperatore. Mr. Impertore’s uncle, Arthur, founded NY Waterway, a ferry service 25 years ago. The family started out in the trucking business but is no longer active in that industry.

Mr. Imperatore said the owners want to explore what the property is worth and what market conditions are like in the area. Depending on the answers to those questions the owners may decide to put the parcel on the market. Several years ago the site was being quietly marketed for $100 million, according to one source.

Mr. Imperatore declined to give any details about the property. However, sources who are familiar with it describe it as an L-shaped site that would allow for the construction of an 800,000- to 1 million-square-foot building. It fronts on 11th Avenue and spans West 36th to West 37th streets, as well as across part of the planned Hudson Boulevard and park, an approximately four-acre plot which will run between 10th and 11th avenues from West 33rd to West 42nd streets.

It is unclear if there are any buildings on the site at present.

Sites on the far West Side have been becoming more desirable because of the planned Hudson Yards project and extension of the No. 7 train line to a terminus at West 34th and 11th Avenue. To date there has been more development on the south side of the rail yards near the present northern end of the High Line at West 30th.

Muted U.S. inflation supports more Fed easing | Cross River Real Estate

U.S. consumer prices were flat in July for a second straight month and the year-over-year increase was the smallest in more than 1-1/2 years, giving the Federal Reserve room to ease policy further to tackle high unemployment.

Other reports on Wednesday showed home-builder sentiment in August hit its highest level in more than five years, while industrial production rose in July. However, a gauge of manufacturing in New York state contracted this month.

The tame inflation reading leaves the door open to more monetary stimulus from the U.S. central bank, even though data on job growth and retail sales have hinted at a bit of a pick-up in economic activity early in the third quarter.

Economists say growth is still too weak to do much to lower the nation’s uncomfortably high 8.3 percent unemployment rate.

“The bigger worry is high unemployment,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania. “Additional monetary easing is likely, but they are probably going to wait until later this year, possibly after the election” in November.

The flat Consumer Price Index reading confounded economists’ expectations for a 0.2 percent gain.

In the 12 months to July, the CPI rose 1.4 percent, the smallest gain since November 2010 and down from June’s 1.7 percent increase, the Labor Department said.

The core CPI, which strips out food and energy, gained 0.1 percent from June. That was the smallest rise since February and it broke four straight months of 0.2 percent increases.

In the year to July, the core index, which is closely watched by the Fed, rose 2.1 percent – the smallest rise in nearly a year.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES

A second report showed industrial production increased 0.6 percent in July after a 0.1 percent gain in June, offering more hope the economy was improving after growth slowed in the second quarter.

The gain in industrial output, combined with surprisingly strong retail sales and a pick up in job growth in July, led some economists to argue the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee probably does not need to launch a third round of bond purchases this year.

“If the FOMC is waiting to see if recent weak data were anomalous, this month’s round of numbers seems to make the case that it might be, which in turn is enough to keep the Fed on the fence,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

Officials at the Fed meet on September 12-13. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at the central bank’s high-profile gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August could offer clues on the near-term course of monetary policy.

Bernanke used that forum in 2010 to communicate the Fed’s intention to pursue a second round of so-called quantitative easing.

U.S. home builder confidence at five-year-high in August | Katonah NY Real Estate

U.S. home builders grew more confident in the housing recovery in August, as many reported that prospects for sales are the best they’ve been since the home bubble burst five years ago.

  • Jim Christy moves a five-paneled door after staining at a new home Tuesday, July 10, 2012, in Pepper Pike, Ohio.

    Tony Dejak, AP

    Jim Christy moves a five-paneled door after staining at a new home Tuesday, July 10, 2012, in Pepper Pike, Ohio.

Tony Dejak, AP

Jim Christy moves a five-paneled door after staining at a new home Tuesday, July 10, 2012, in Pepper Pike, Ohio.

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The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Wednesday rose two points this month to 37, up from 35 in July. That’s the highest reading since March 2007.

The index, which is based on responses from 478 builders, has been trending higher since October and only dipped once since January. That suggests a turnaround in housing is solidifying after years of stagnation.

Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn’t reached that level since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

Home builders have mostly enjoyed improved sales trends this year, aided by low mortgage rates and a decline in the inventory of unsold homes. The pace of foreclosures slowed sharply last year, and banks appear to be holding back from flooding the market with foreclosed properties.

As confidence has increased, so has construction. Builders broke ground in June on the most new homes and apartments in nearly four years. And permits to build single-family homes rose to the highest level since March 2010.

Consumers also appear more upbeat about the housing market and are investing more in their homes. Home Depot, the nation’s largest home-improvement retailer, said healthy sales of paint, bathroom accessories and kitchen installations helped lift its net income in the second quarter by 12%.

In August, builders reported seeing the best sales level since February 2007, according to a separate measure in the NAHB survey. Their outlook for sales in the next six months is at the highest level since March 2007. Turnout by prospective buyers, meanwhile, returned to levels not seen since May 2006.

GL Homes, which has eight open communities in Florida and caters to everyone from entry-level buyers to retirees, is among the builders that are seeing sharply improved sales this year.

Its sales have risen 79% from a year ago, said Marcie DePlaza, division president of the Sunrise, Fla.-based builder.

And DePlaza anticipates sales will continue to strengthen, citing still-low interest rates and shrinking inventory levels of unsold homes.

“A lot of people sat on the fence the past several years and now they’re ready to make a move,” DePlaza said. “People are feeling like the bottom has hit.”

Other builders remain skeptical.

Sales for Sivage Homes, which builds homes in New Mexico and Texas, are up about 50% so far this year. But CEO Michael Sivage is quick to note that the gains are coming after sales of new homes sank in 2011 to the lowest level on records going back half a century.

Sivage says sales trends in his 14 open communities remain uneven. For example: San Antonio is seeing gains, but demand remains weak in Albuquerque.

“I would not go so far to say I absolutely believe a housing recovery is under way,” Sivage said. “I’m not convinced that it’s sustainable quite yet.”

The housing recovery has been subject to fits and starts. Sales of new homes fell 8.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000 — the biggest decline since February 2011. That was down from a two-year high of 382,000 in May.

Most economists say a healthy market has annual sales of new homes closer to 700,000.

And the housing recovery could stumble further if economic growth and employment stay weak.

From April through June, employers added an average of only 73,000 jobs. And the economy grew at a tepid 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter.

Hiring appeared to recover somewhat in July. Employers added 163,000 jobs, the most since February. Still, the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3% from 8.2% in June.

Though new homes represent less than 20% of the housing sales market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to the NAHB’s data.

Post-WWII recessions and recoveries, at a glance | Bedford NY Real Estate

Since the Great Depression, the U.S. economy has fallen into recession 12 times, according to economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research who establish dates for business cycles.After 10 of those recessions ended, the economy continued to grow for at least three years. The periods of growth between recessions are called recoveries. But strictly speaking, economists say a recovery lasts until the economy returns to where it was when the recession started. Once it does, it becomes an “expansion.”Here’s a list of postwar recessions and recoveries/expansions:Recessions Recoveries/expansionsFebruary 1945 through October 1945—eight months October 1945 through November 1948—37 monthsNovember 1948 through October 1949—11 months October 1949 through July 1953—45 monthsJuly 1953 through May 1954—10 months May 1954 through August 1957—39 monthsAugust 1957 through April 1958—eight months April 1958 through April 1960—24 monthsApril 1960 through February 1961—10 months February 1961 through December 1969—106 monthsDecember 1969 through November 1970—11 months November 1970 through November 1973—36 monthsNovember 1973 through March 1975—16 months March 1975 through January 1980—58 monthsJanuary 1980 through July 1980—six months July 1980 through July 1981—12 monthsJuly 1981 through November 1982—16 months November 1982 through July 1990—92 monthsJuly 1990 through March 1991—eight months March 1991 through March 2001—120 monthsMarch 2001 through November 2001 —eight months November 2001 through December 2007—73 monthsDecember 2007 through June 2009—18 months June 2009 through August 2012—38 months so far

US economic recovery is weakest since World War II | Pound Ridge Real Estate

The recession that ended three years ago this summer has been followed by the feeblest economic recovery since the Great Depression.

Since World War II, 10 U.S. recessions have been followed by a recovery that lasted at least three years. An Associated Press analysis shows that by just about any measure, the one that began in June 2009 is the weakest.

The ugliness goes well beyond unemployment, which at 8.3 percent is the highest this long after a recession ended.

Economic growth has never been weaker in a postwar recovery. Consumer spending has never been so slack. Only once has job growth been slower.

More than in any other post-World War II recovery, people who have jobs are hurting: Their paychecks have fallen behind inflation.

Many economists say the agonizing recovery from the Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, is the predictable consequence of a housing bust and a grave financial crisis.

Credit, the fuel that powers economies, evaporated after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. And a 30 percent drop in housing prices erased trillions in home equity and brought construction to a near-standstill.

So any recovery was destined to be a slog.

“A housing collapse is very different from a stock market bubble and crash,” says Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “It affects so many people. It only corrects very slowly.”

The U.S. economy has other problems, too. Europe’s troubles have undermined consumer and business confidence on both sides of the Atlantic. And the deeply divided U.S. political system has delivered growth-chilling uncertainty.

The AP compared nine economic recoveries since the end of World War II that lasted at least three years. A 10th recovery that ran from 1945 to 1948 was not included because the statistics from that period aren’t comprehensive, although the available data show that hiring was robust. There were two short-lived recoveries — 24 months and 12 months — after the recessions of 1957-58 and 1980.

Here is a closer look at how the comeback from the Great Recession stacks up with the others:

—FEEBLE GROWTH

America’s gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — grew 6.8 percent from the April-June quarter of 2009 through the same quarter this year, the slowest in the first three years of a postwar recovery. GDP grew an average of 15.5 percent in the first three years of the eight other comebacks analyzed.

The engines that usually drive recoveries aren’t firing this time.

Investment in housing, which grew an average of nearly 34 percent this far into previous postwar recoveries, is up just 8 percent since the April-June quarter of 2009.

That’s because the overbuilding of the mid-2000s left a glut of houses. Prices fell and remain depressed. The housing market has yet to return to anything close to full health even as mortgage rates have plunged to record lows.

Government spending and investment at the federal, state and local levels was 4.5 percent lower in the second quarter than three years earlier.

Three years into previous postwar recoveries, government spending had risen an average 12.5 percent. In the first three years after the 1981-82 recession, during President Ronald Reagan’s first term, the economy got a jolt from a 15 percent increase in government spending and investment.

This time, state and local governments have been slashing spending — and jobs. And since passing President Barack Obama’s $862 billion stimulus package in 2009, a divided Congress has been reluctant to try to help the economy with federal spending programs. Trying to contain the $11.1 trillion federal debt has been a higher priority.

Since June 2009, governments at all levels have slashed 642,000 jobs, the only time government employment has fallen in the three years after a recession. This long after the 1973-74 recession, by contrast, governments had added more than 1 million jobs.

Bay Area real estate market stays hot, as home sales and prices keep increasing | Bedford Corners Real Estate

The median price of a Bay Area home remained at a near-four-year-high in July and sales increased for the 13th consecutive month, as the real estate market continues to recover from the depths of the Great Recession with a renewed emphasis on higher priced homes.

Nearly 8,500 homes sold in July, representing a 22.9 percent increase from July of the previous year, at a median price of $421,000, 12.6 percent higher than the previous July, DataQuick reported Wednesday.

Sales have increased year-over-year in every month since July of 2011, and the median price is at its highest since August of 2008, when home prices were beginning to descend amid a wave of foreclosures attributed to the subprime mortgage crisis.

DataQuick attributed the continuing rise in both sales and prices to the market straying away from the pervasive pattern of foreclosure purchases, with demand for medium- and high-priced homes returning. The real estate tracking company said that about half of the growth in median price could be attributed to buyers targeting higher-priced homes.

“The market has really been lopsided the past couple of years, tilted toward low-end bargain chasing. Now it’s re-balancing, slowly, with increased activity in mid and move-up markets,” DataQuick president John Walsh said Wednesday.

Buyer Satisfaction with Real Estate Brokerages Hits All-Time Low | Chappaqua NY Homes

Home-buyer satisfaction at an all-time low and home-seller satisfaction declining as well, real estate companies are challenged to manage customer expectations though Keller-Williams ranked highest among both buyers and sellers, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2012 Home Buyer/Seller Satisfaction Study released today.

The study, now in its fifth year, found that overall satisfaction among home buyers is at its lowest level in the history of the study, averaging 789 on a 1,000-point scale, compared with 797 in 2011. Satisfaction among sellers has declined as well, averaging 768, compared with 779 in 2011.

“Although home buyers and sellers are aware of continuing challenges in the real estate market, a key reason satisfaction is down is that customer expectations are not being met, either in terms of sellers having to compromise on their listing price, or for buyers who are compromising on the home’s condition and size,” said Christina Cooley, senior manager of the real estate practice at J.D. Power and Associates. “This is understandably frustrating all around. However, we also find that real estate companies that set themselves apart in terms of working closely with their customers and meeting their needs may play an important role in both managing expectations, but more importantly, exceeding them.”

Keller Williams ranks highest in customer satisfaction in both the home-buyer and home-seller segments. Further, Keller Williams achieves the highest scores in all factors across both segments, including agent/salesperson, which is the most important aspect of the customer experience for home buyers and sellers. In the home-buyer segment, Keller Williams is followed in the rankings by Prudential. In the home-seller segment rankings, Keller Williams is followed by Coldwell Banker.

The study finds that the highest-performing real estate companies are more consistent at capturing a greater proportion of the listing price. On average, sellers report receiving 89 percent of their listing price.  The stud measures customer satisfaction of home buyers and sellers with the largest national real estate companies. Overall satisfaction is determined by examining three factors of the home-buying experience: agent/salesperson; office; and variety of additional services.  Four factors are examined for the home-selling experience: agent/salesperson; marketing; office; and variety of additional services.

Higher levels of customer satisfaction also translate into higher levels of customer loyalty. Notably, although the agent/salesperson has the largest impact on overall customer satisfaction among both home buyers and sellers, customer loyalty is stronger toward the real estate company than toward the agent. Less than 20 percent of customers say they “definitely will” switch real estate companies if their agent moves to another company.

“As customers continue to feel anxious about the current housing market, it requires a combination of a high-performing company, process and resources along with a truly exceptional agent to put home buyers and sellers at ease,” said Cooley. “At the end of the day, real estate companies may best satisfy their customers by keeping them informed, educating them on comparable sales information and following up with them after the closing.”

Additional Industry Findings

  • The study finds that the majority of home buyers and sellers are experienced with the process, with 60 percent indicating they are repeat buyers and 70 percent indicating they are repeat sellers.
  • Approximately one-third (33%) of customers indicate they are likely to consider buying or selling a home in the next 12 months.
  • Among home buyers, 17 percent purchased a foreclosure and 14 percent purchased a short sale. Among sellers, 14 percent of sales were short sales.

The 2012 Home Buyer/Seller Study includes more than 2,990 evaluations from more than 2,790 respondents who bought or sold a home between March 2011 and April 2012. The study was fielded between March and May 2012.

Home-Buyer Segment
Customer Satisfaction Index Ranking J.D. Power.com Power Circle Ratings
(Based on a 1,000-point scale) For Consumers
Keller Williams

818

5

Prudential803

4

Coldwell Banker791

3

Home-Buyer Segment Average789

3

RE/MAX788

3

Century 21764

2

Home-Seller Segment
Customer Satisfaction Index Ranking J.D. Power.com Power Circle Ratings
(Based on a 1,000-point scale) For Consumers
Keller Williams800

5

Coldwell Banker772

3

Home-Seller Segment Average768

3

Prudential766

3

RE/MAX760

3

Century 21751

2

Power Circle Ratings Legend:
5 – Among the best
4 – Better than most
3 – About average
2 – The rest

California is Leading the Recovery | Armonk NY Homes

The state that gave America Alt-A loans, Countrywide, the first tidal wave of foreclosures, the highest prices during the boom and the fastest fall during the bust now is leading the nation out of the six-year housing depression.

In the second quarter, California replaced Florida as the state dominating Realtor.com’s quarterly list of top turnaround towns. In the first quarter of 2012, seven Florida markets and one California market made the top 10 positions in the Realtor.com ranking. Just one market in Florida and six in California now dominate the first 10 positions.

Leading economists like Clear Capital’s Alex Villacorta now describe the West, led by California, as leading the recovery beyond its first phase.

“Now at the start of a more advanced recovery, mid and top tier price segments in the West reported yearly gains in July of 5.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. These gains indicate the buyer pool in the West has expanded beyond the segment focused on investment opportunities in low tier homes, to the owner occupied segment purchasing higher priced residences,” wrote Villacorta in Clear Capitals July market report.

The California Association of Realtors reports prices continued to improve, with the median home price posting both month-over-month and year-over-year gains for the fourth consecutive month in June. June’s price rose 1.3 percent from a revised $316,410 in May and 8.1 percent from a revised $296,410 recorded in June 2011. The June 2012 figure was 30.7 percent higher than the cyclical bottom of $245,230 reached in February 2009. The median price has posted above the $300,000 level for the third straight month after remaining below that mark for 15 months.

Major California markets have cut inventory dramatically, reduced REOs and now are witnessing growing demand and improving prices. REOs are down 41.7 percent from last year, according to Foreclosure Radar, and short sales are up. In Sacramento, for example, 54.4 percent of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up slightly from 54.2 percent last month, and down from 61.3 percent in July 2011. The percentage of REOs fell to 22.4 percent, according to the Sacramento Association of Realtors.

From Realtor.com and other sources: here’s a review of turnaround markets.

Oakland. In the second quarter of 2012, median list prices in Oakland are up 10.79 percent compared to the same time last year, and inventory is moving 58 percent faster than in Q2 2011. Oakland also reduced its inventory by just over half (57 percent). The foreclosure rate in Contra Costa County is one in every 242 units while Alameda County is one in every 402, both significantly greater than the national rate of one in every 666 housing units.

San Jose. The median sale price of Silicon Valley homes neared a four-year high in June 2012, also the 12th consecutive month with year-over-year increases in home sales. One of the sharpest inventory level decreases occurred in San Jose in Q2 2012; totals were down 41 percent compared to Q2 2011, while median list prices increased 12.03 percent over the same quarter last year. Homes moved 29 percent faster in the last quarter compared to Q2 2011.

Bakersfield saw median list prices appreciate 7.62 percent in the second quarter of 2012 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. While Kern County today generates one foreclosure filing for every 197 homes, its for-sale inventory decreased 49 percent in compared to the same quarter last year. Bakersfield’s 35-day median age of inventory, 40 percent faster in the second quarter of 2012 than the same quarter last year, positions this agricultural capital as the fifth fastest-moving market. New-home closings in Bakersfield in April 2012 were up 66.1 percent from a year ago.

San Francisco housing costs have been one of the most expensive in the nation for years, and its median list price of $699,000 for Q2 makes it one of the most expensive in the nation. Yet, its Q2 2012 inventory is 39 percent lower than it was a year ago and prices are up 11 percent on a year-over-year basis. Its 8.5 percent unemployment rate is higher than the national average. Key to the market’s improvements is fewer foreclosures and an increased number of high-end sales, as well as improved mortgage availability and ultra-low interest rates.

Fresno has seen a nearly 50 percent year-over-year quarterly reduction of inventory. Its age of inventory was 37 days in Q2 2012, which placed it in the top 10 fastest moving markets in the country. Fresno still suffers from very high negative equity at 46.3 percent , compared to 27.3 percent nationwide .Fresno County’s foreclosure rate – at one in every 145 homes – and its 15.3 percnt unemployment rate may make it especially challenging to generate the demand that its housing market will need to continue to improve at the current rate.

Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc has seen a 31 percent decrease in year-over-year quarterly for-sale inventory and an increase of median list prices of 17 percent compared to the same time last year. Santa Barbara’s housing market moved 21 percent faster in the second quarter of 2012 than the same quarter last year. Santa Barbara County today generates one foreclosure filing for every 330 homes