Daily Archives: March 18, 2012

Armonk NY Real Estate | Asking Prices Go Black in 2012

For the first time in six years, sellers’ asking prices tracked by the Department of Numbers Website have gone positive on a year-to-year basis, another sign that the housing economy is slowly healing itself.

Sellers’ asking prices nationally first showed a positive year over year gain in December, and increased to 3.9 percent as of March 5.

“I wanted to see January’s data follow suit lest I prematurely announce a sign change only to have it reverse direction the following month. Of course there’s nothing that precludes that even with two months of positive Y/Y numbers, but it does tell me that the housing market is slowly healing itself,” wrote Ben Engebreth, an independent programmer and data analyst who operates the site.

As of March 5, 2012 there were about 858,688 single family and condo homes listed for sale in the 54 metro areas Engebreth tracks. The median asking price of these homes was estimated to be $224,322.2 Since this time last year, the inventory of homes for sale has decreased by 20.5 percent and the median price has increased by 3.9 percent.

“The Y/Y inventory decline of roughly 15 percent (which puts it at an all-time low for the series) offers additional supporting evidence. That’s not to say that we’ll be returning to rapid price appreciation any time soon; I certainly don’t foresee that,” Engebreth wrote.

The median asking price for homes in the US peaked in June 2006 at $319,459 and is now $95,137 (29.8 percent) lower. From a low of $211,844 in January 2011, the median asking price in the US has increased by $12,477 (5.9 percent).

In its January data, Realtor.com, the massive listings site which also tracks asking prices, reported list prices were up 3.69 percent on the year in the 146 metros it covers. The site reported the top four markets in terms of year over year increases were all in Florida: Miami (up 32.75 percent), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (up 21 percent), Punta Gorda (up 19.33 [percent), and West Palm Beach (up 18.60 percent). Inventory was down 23.20 percent on the year.

Chappaqua NY Realtor Robert Paul | Want More Comments? Let ProBlogger Help!

To be honest with you, I can’t remember much about the first comment I ever received on a blog post I’d written. It was back sometime in 2000, after all!

What I do remember is the thrill. When that first reader comments on your blog, you know you’ve finally reached someone. Your writing has moved one of the people who’s arrived at your blog to respond.

Whether the comment’s long or short, detailed or simple, it doesn’t much matter: that first real (non-spam) comment is a milestone for any blogger.

Comments are always an issue for bloggers.

When you’re waiting for that first-ever comment, you dream of the days when your blog’s swamped with thoughtful comments the way the A-list blogs are.

But experienced bloggers have other considerations to tackle—and they’re not just about finding time to sift through spam or respond to commenters. As your blog grows, and attracts more comments, you’ll probably find yourself wanting to create the right kind of culture around comments, and that’ll dictate the kinds of comments you send to trash, respond to, and maybe even highlight in posts you write.

So all of us—not just those starting out—need ideas that we can use to generate comments on our blogs, and comments of the right type (no trolls, please!). Recently, I asked some experienced bloggers if they’d share their wisdom with us in a series of posts on generating comments. I’ll be publishing their responses throughout the week, starting today, and I hope we’ll all find it useful!

For now, though, I’d love to hear where you’re at with comments on your blog. Are you still waiting for that all-important first one? Are you reaching a point where you’ve had to reduce the proportion of comments you respond to? Or have you turned comments off altogether? Share your experience with us … in the comments!

Eight More Months of Pain | Pound Ridge Real Estate for sale

Housing prices will drop four more percentage points and they won’t bottom out until next fall. That’s the latest forecast from Standard & Poor’s housing experts, from a Webcast on the US Housing Market distributed to investors and the media.

The 1.6 to 2 million properties that will be released following the finalization of the multi-state attorneys general settlement yesterday will depress housing markets enough to drive prices down another four points in the S&P/ Case-Shiller index, the experts said.

“The shadow inventory is a key concern for the housing market. There are about 4 million homes sold annually. We don’t expect them to dump all two million on the market all at once. That’s the reason for our estimate that prices won’t bottom out until the fall,” said Erkan Erturk, Senior Director, Structured Finance Global Research.

The S&P/ Case-Shiller Index has fallen 34 percent since its peak in 2006 and reached a new low in December. It is expected to fall four more points before the bottom is reached, said Beth Ann Bovino S&P Ratings Service’s deputy chief economist.

“Prices are affordable. Mortgage rates are low. Yet people are afraid to buy,” she said. She said unemployment will remain high as long-time unemployed and under employed workers re-enter the work force.

Bedford NY Realtor Robert Paul | Sales and Homeownership Improve 8 Percent

For the first time in 18 months, home prices in the 53 cities surveyed by the RE/MAX National Housing Report in February rose by 1.1 percent over February 2011. As an early spring drew buyers to market, home sales were even higher, up 8.7 percent from one year ago. Attitudesd towards homeownership also improved 8 percent, according to a new survey by Prudential.

As a result of reduced foreclosure activity and positive sales of eight straight months above the previous year, inventory continued a downward trend for the 20thstraight month, 22.4 percent lower than the housing inventory in February 2011.

Consumer sentiment appears to be rising, and record low mortgage rates coupled with favorable home prices are attracting homebuyers and investors who don’t want to miss a historic opportunity.

“All the data is pointing to a very active spring and summer selling season this year, which is great news for a recovering housing market,” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC. “As sales numbers have trended higher for several months, we have been anticipating a turnaround in home prices, and it looks like it’s finally starting.”

Rising optimism over homeownership may in part account for the improving sales picture, according to a a new national survey showing that Americans are significantly more optimistic about homeownership than they were a year ago. According to the second-annual Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey, a full 60 percent of Americans have favorable views toward the real estate market. That’s up 8 percentage points since last year.

Some 70 percent of respondents have some degree of confidence that property values will improve over the next two years; 63 percent believe that real estate is a good investment despite the recent market volatility; up 11 points from last year. Eight in 10 respondents said homeownership is very important to them; only 15 percent said the economic downturn made homeownership less important.

“Respondents told us what our sales professionals see every day that, despite recent market volatility, homeownership remains integral to the dreams of most Americans and that consumers’ confidence in the housing market is returning,” said Earl Lee, president, Prudential Real Estate. “This is good news for home buyers and sellers, communities and our economy as a whole. As more people look to take advantage of historic interest rates and prices, we believe the foundation for a sustainable recovery is in sight.”

Among the generations, 94 percent of respondents believe that finding the right home and community are crucial to helping their family be happy. Only a small minority of older Americans said the recent housing crisis made homeownership less important to them. Nearly half of Gen Y respondents said it made homeownership more important. Gen Y’ers are particularly optimistic about the road ahead with 72% expressing favorable views about the residential real estate market.

“Characteristically, many of these consumers, particularly Gen Y, share a firm sense of family and community,” Lee said. “It’s not surprising now that they’re embracing homeownership to build on that sense.”

Foreclosures Spread North | Bedford Hills NY Homes for Sale

The latest data from RealtyTrac and CoreLogic makes it official. Driven by the still suffering economy, Foreclosures are marching northward from their traditional haunts in the recovering Sand States, invading markets that have seen relatively few foreclosures to date.

Even though nationally foreclosure activity fell 2 percent in February from the previous month and was down 8 percent from a year ago, RealtyTrac reported annual foreclosure activity increased in 21 states in February compared to only seven last September.

Judicial states, where a court order is required to foreclose, accounted for a lion’s share of the growth in foreclosures. Hundreds of thousands of foreclosures were backlogged over the past year due to concerns about lenders’ processing practices, in judicial states, which include New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Illinois.

“The foreclosure and mortgage settlement filed in court earlier this week will help pave the way to a properly functioning foreclosure process by providing a clear roadmap for necessary foreclosures,” Moore continued. “That should result in more states posting annual increases in the coming months. Not surprisingly, many of the biggest annual increases in February were in states with the more bureaucratic judicial foreclosure process, which resulted in a larger backlog of foreclosures built up over the last 18 months in those states.”

Ten of the nation’s 20 largest metro areas by population documented year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in February, led by the Florida cities of Tampa (64 percent increase) and Miami (53 percent increase).

The 10 metro areas with increases were all on the East Coast or in the Midwest, while most of the metro areas with year-over-year decreases in foreclosure activity were in the West, led by Seattle (59 percent decrease) and Phoenix (43 percent decrease).

The metro areas with the highest foreclosure rates among the 20 largest were Riverside-San Bernardino in California (one in 166 housing units), Atlanta (one in 244), Phoenix (one in 259), Miami (one in 264) and Chicago (one in 302).

CoreLogic reported today that in January approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.3 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the foreclosure inventory compared to 1.5 million, or 3.6 percent, in January 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in December 2011.

Nationally, the number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by 145,000, or 9.5 percent in January 2012 compared to January 2011. The foreclosure inventory is the stock of homes in the foreclosure process. A property moves into the foreclosure inventory when the mortgage servicer places the property into the foreclosure process after serious delinquency is reached and remains there until the foreclosure is completed. The foreclosure inventory is measured only against homes with an outstanding mortgage, rather than against all homes. Nationwide, roughly one third of homeowners own their homes outright.

The share of borrowers nationally that were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payment, including homes in foreclosure and REO, fell to 7.2 percent in January 2012 from 7.8 percent in January 2011, but remained unchanged from December 2011.

“The pace of completed foreclosures is gradually increasing again, but the clearing ratio is falling as REO sales have slowed in the winter months. Judicial foreclosure states are continuing to process foreclosures more slowly than non-judicial foreclosure states,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic. “Non-judicial foreclosure states completed almost twice as many foreclosures per 1000 active loans as judicial foreclosure states in January.”

Katonah NY Realtor Robert Paul | Realtor.com: The Stage is set for Recovery

Inventories are at historic lows, list prices have strengthened over the past 12 months and demand is healthier.  The February data from Realtor.com paints a positive picture for the coming recovery.

With the spring home buying season just weeks away, three critical metrics tracked by Realtor.com are substantially improved over a year ago.  The total US for-sale inventory was down by 22.02 percent in February compared to 2011 and declined in all but two of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com. The median age of the inventory fell to 9.76 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the median national list price is up by 6.82 percent.   The nation’s housing markets as a whole are in better shape today than at any time since the 2009-2010 tax credits.

The nationwide median list price for single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops in February was $188,000, up from $185,500 in January and 6.82 percent higher compared to a year ago.  At the same time last year-roughly the beginning of the 2011 home buying season–the median national list price stood at $176,000, 6.88 percent below the median list price in February 2010.  While higher list prices do not always translate into higher sales prices, they may nevertheless signal a growing optimism on the part of sellers that the market has begun to turn around.

The national for-sale inventory was relatively stable in February (+0.54 percent), reversing eight consecutive months of decline but consistent with the onset of the spring home buying season. More telling is that the total number of listings on Realtor.com was 22.02 percent below the levels observed in February 2011.  This favorable trend again represents a considerable improvement over conditions observed at the beginning of the 2011 home buying season, when for-sale inventories were down by 4.96% compared to the previous year (February 2010.)

The dynamics of recovery and market reversal are remaking the geography of conditions across the nation.  Many markets in areas hardest hit by foreclosures and low prices at the beginning of the housing decline, such as Florida markets and Phoenix, continue to register large year-over-year declines in inventories and large year-over-year increases in median listing prices.  At the same time, median list prices in other markets once the epicenter of the housing boom — including Las Vegas and many parts of California – continue to lag behind the country as a whole.  Finally, markets that never experienced the dramatic run-up in housing values that preceded the housing crisis nor the subsequent decline, are suddenly suffering declining prices. Chicago, Knoxville, Detroit and Milwaukee-have registered some of the largest declines in their median list prices on a year-over-year basis as the impact of a weak economy continues to take its toll.

Declines resulting from the processing slowdown and increases due to economic factors and increases in negative equity-are having their impact on both prices and inventories.  However, inventories will certainly increase in the coming months, especially in judicial states like Florida, as lenders process and list the huge backlog freed by the recent multi-state Attorneys General agreement. The so-called shadow inventory of potential foreclosures now stands at an estimated 1.6 million units-almost the same as the total for-sale inventory (1.8 million) in February.  Unless properly managed, the disposition of these properties could easily undermine the progress that has been made to date in many markets.

For sale inventories in February declined in all but two of the 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com compared to a year ago, with the for-sale inventory in more than half of all markets (79) dropping by 20 percent or more.  In February 2011, market conditions were not as favorable.  While inventories had begun to decline in many markets, the declines were smaller and not nearly as widespread-one year ago, only 96 markets had experienced a year-over-year decline in their for-sale inventories and only 5 markets had dropped by 20 percent or more.

Areas experiencing the greatest year-over-year reductions in their for-sale inventory in February 2012 also looked very different than they did a year ago.  In February 2012, the 10 MSAs with the greatest declines were concentrated in Florida, Arizona, and California-areas that have been among the hardest hit by the housing crisis. In February 2010, the 10 MSAs with the largest percent declines in their for-sale inventories were primarily small Midwestern areas.

Why Facebook Must Stay Quiet | Cross Rivers NY Homes for Sale

While Facebook’s plan to go public seems to be all many investors talk about these days, the company itself is keeping mum. That’s because it’s in the so-called quiet period, mandated by federal rules dating to 1933 that aim to prevent companies from hyping and selling stocks that aren’t worth as much as the sellers claim. It’s one part of the intricate process that will take the social network from its initial filing on Feb. 1 to being publicly traded in several months.

The markets have evolved since the ’30s, but the temptation for companies to puff their feathers for investors is still strong. “We’re watching all the time,” Shelley Parratt, an SEC deputy director, said at a conference in January. Parratt helps run the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, which polices the quiet period rules. What companies can and can’t say loosened up in 2005, when the Securities and Exchange Commission overhauled the IPO process for the first time in more than 70 years. Before the changes, companies felt their hands were tied to communicate publicly at all, even halting regular advertising campaigns. “There was a good set of complaints that said the IPO process should be about making sure various types of manipulations don’t occur but shouldn’t be about stopping the business plan of a company dead in its tracks,” says Eric Talley, a law professor at University of California Berkeley.

In 2005, the SEC’s new, more open guidance said companies still couldn’t hype their stocks, but they could continue regular communications with customers, shareholders, and suppliers. The key there is that a company’s communications can’t be new or differ from what it has done before, it can’t make any forward-looking statements, and it can’t talk about the offering specifically.

If a company starts talking when it shouldn’t, it’s “gun jumping,” as industry parlance has it. The ramifications can be costly—the SEC can delay approving an IPO, and shareholders can possibly sue a company over public comments if there are material misstatements, says Onnig Dombalagian, a law professor at Tulane University. After Google’s (GOOG) founders gave an interview to Playboy during the company’s IPO, the SEC forced the company to include the interview as an exhibit to its final filing.

Since the 2005 reforms are fairly recent, and the IPO market has been cool during much of that time, lawyers are still quite conservative about how they interpret the relaxed rules, Talley says. They advise their clients to keep extra quiet, which can prove to be particularly hard for tech companies, where “part of the culture is to have a little bit of public swagger,” and showmanship is part of the business plan, he says.

Previously, during the road shows when companies pitch to investors, they distribute what is known as the “red herring” prospectus, a reference to the red cover text cautioning possible investors that these securities aren’t yet for sale. “The overhaul completely upended what you can use,” Dombalagian says. Companies can use other marketing documents, so long as they don’t contradict what’s in the formal SEC filings and they provide links to the red herring, which lists out all of the risk factors and other cautions related to the offering, he says. “When you do speak about the offering or when you do provide additional sales materials, having the prospectus there throws some cold water on the sales.”