Monthly Archives: April 2020

Housing industry experts look for glimmers of hope in dismal jobs report | Katonah Real Estate

The U.S. economy reported a plummet of 701,000 nonfarm payrolls in the early part of March, according to new data posted Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This marked the first decline in payrolls since September 2010. As a result, the unemployment rate increased by 0.9 percentage point to 4.4%, the greatest over-the-month increase since January 1975 and the highest unemployment level since August 2017.

The number of unemployed persons spiked by 1.4 million to 7.1 million in March, with the BLS citing the COVID-19 crisis for the statistical mayhem. The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff more than doubled in March to 1.8 million while the number of permanent job losers increased by 177,000 to 1.5 million.

It’s important to note that this BLS report does not take the entire month of March into account. And recent data shows that nearly 10 million filed for unemployment in the last few weeks, meaning the BLS figure will rise significantly in next month’s report.

“This report reflects the initial impact on U.S. jobs of the public health measures being taken to contain the coronavirus,” Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia said in a statement. “It should be noted the report’s surveys only reference the week and pay periods that include March 12; we know that our report next month will show more extensive job losses, based on the high number of state unemployment claims reported yesterday and the week before.”

The leisure and hospitality industries were particularly hard hit with a loss of 459,000 jobs, and other industries experiencing acute declines included health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade and construction.

Within the mortgage and housing industry, there was a grim acknowledgment of an unprecedented economic crisis – yet several thought leaders tried to find bright spots in the dismal data.

Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, noted the report “showed almost an additional 1.5 million households now working part-time when they would rather have full-time hours. The decline in the participation rate already indicates that some workers are stepping back from even looking for a job as the pandemic crisis continues.”

Fratantoni predicted next month’s employment numbers will record higher levels of job losses, which would lead to “a drop in demand for purchase mortgages,” although refinancing activity is expected to remain vibrant. He also noted one small bright spot in the new data regarding home construction.

“Although construction employment declined last month, there was a small increase in residential construction, with the decline driven by non-residential builders,” he continued. “When housing demand recovers later this year, we will once again be facing a supply shortage, so it is good to see that homebuilders are continuing to hire.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, also acknowledged that the residential side of the construction industry was stronger than the commercial property side, adding that residential construction jobs “were steady and higher by 27,000 from a year ago for actual building construction and higher by 44,000 among general contractors. We had a housing shortage before going into the crisis and home builders were gearing up to relieve the inventory tightness.”

Yun also maintained a sense of hopefulness for the newly out-of-work, explaining that “the enhanced unemployment insurance checks to make up for a good portion of lost income” and the post-pandemic weeks will be framed by “spending power ready to be unleashed once the all-clear signal is declared.”

Anthony Casa, chairman of the Association of Independent Mortgage Experts, warned that the U.S. economy in general and housing in particular could withstand continued waves of millions filing for unemployment benefits, with small businesses facing an existential crisis because most companies in that sector “do not have the money to shut down for multiple months.” And while Casa praised the mortgage industry for remaining “very strong” thanks to historically low rates, he expressed concern over the real estate industry.

“The longer this goes on, the bigger the impact on them,” he said. “Real estate is in for a tough year if home values decline.”

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Housing industry experts look for glimmers of hope in dismal jobs report

NY home purchase applications down 30% | Cross River Real Estate

The coronavirus appears to be splitting the mortgage market: More borrowers are refinancing to save money on monthly payments, while potential homebuyers are backing away fast. 

Driven entirely by refinancing, total mortgage application volume increased 15.3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was 67% higher than one year ago, when interest rates were higher.

After rising for two weeks, mortgage rates plunged to the lowest level in the MBA’s survey. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.47% from 3.82%, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 89 basis points higher one year ago.

As a result, refinance volume surged again. Those applications spiked 26% for the week and were 168% higher than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 75.9% of total applications from 69.3% the previous week.

“Mortgage rates and applications continue to experience significant volatility from the economic and financial market uncertainty caused by the coronavirus crisis,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “The bleaker economic outlook, along with the first wave of realized job losses reported in last week’s unemployment claims numbers, likely caused potential homebuyers to pull back.”

Weekly jobless claims soared past 3 million to record high, the Labor Department reported last Thursday.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 11% last week and were 24% lower than a year ago. Real estate agents and homebuilders have reported a sharp drop in buyer interest, and open houses and model homes are shuttering. Some potential buyers are doing virtual tours, but the demand is not even close to normal spring volume.

“Buyer and seller traffic — and ultimately home purchases — will also likely be slowed this spring by the restrictions ordered in several states on in-person activities,” Kan said.

The effects of the coronavirus on housing are widespread, but most acute in certain states. Purchase applications are down over 30% in New York, California and Washington state.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-mortgage-applications-to-buy-a-home-plummet-24percent-annually.html

Nahb polling numbers for Covid week 2 | Bedford Hills Real Estate

The second week of NAHB’s online poll showed that several of the coronavirus’s impacts on the residential construction industry have become more widespread and severe.  Once again, traffic ranked as the most widespread problem, with 93 percent of respondents saying the coronavirus has had an adverse impact on traffic of prospective buyers.

This result is based on 318 responses collected online between March 24 and March 30.  As in week 1, the largest share of responses came from single-family home builders; and respondents were most often owner, president or CEO of their companies.  The geographic distribution was somewhat different in week 2, however, with a greater share of responses coming from the Northeast and West Census regions.

The week 2 poll listed eight possible impacts of the coronavirus and asked if each has so far had a major, minor, or no adverse effect on respondents’ businesses.  After traffic, 89 percent of respondents for whom the item was applicable said the virus was having a noticeable, adverse impact on homeowners’ concerns about interacting with remodeling crews, followed by the rate at which inquiries for remodeling work are coming in (86 percent), cancellations or delays of existing remodeling projects (82 percent), how long it takes to obtain a plan review for a typical single-family home (80 percent), and how long it takes the local building department to respond to a request for an inspection (78 percent).  The least common problems on the list were supply of building products and materials and willingness of workers and subs to report to a construction site, but even these were cited as a virus-induced problem by over three-fifths of the respondents.

Five of these problems were also covered in week 1 of the poll.  Four clearly worsened in week 2.  For example, the 80 percent of respondents who said the virus has had an adverse impact on how long it takes to obtain a plan review for a single-family home was up from 57 percent a week earlier.  Comparisons across weeks should be interpreted cautiously, due primarily to differences in the geographic distribution of responses.  In this case, however, the percentage increased significantly in each of the four Census regions.

Similarly, the 78 percent who said the virus has had an adverse impact on how long it takes the local building department to respond to a request for an inspection was up from 50 percent a week earlier.  Again, the increase was present and significant in each of the four regions.

As mentioned above, problems with willingness of workers and subs to report to a construction site were less widespread than the other items on the list, but the 64 percent who cited it as a virus-induced problem in week 2 was nevertheless up from 42 percent a week earlier.  Again, the rising trend was consistent across regions.

Even a decline in the traffic of prospective buyers, the most widespread problem in week 1 of the poll, was more widespread in week 2.  The incidence of the problem increased in every region except the Northeast.  The Northeast, however, showed a marked increase (from 57 to 73 percent) in the share reporting that the virus had a major, rather than minor, adverse impact on traffic.

The trend was not completely consistent across regions for the fifth item present in both weeks of the poll: supply of building products and materials.  Although the overall share reporting this as a virus-induced problem was up, this was primarily due to a particularly strong increase (from 45 to 74 percent) in the Midwest.  For additional details—including tables for each question broken down by respondents’ region, primary business, and position in the company—please see the full survey report.

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eyeonhousing.org

Mortgage rates average 3.3% | Waccabuc Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.33 percent.

“Mortgage rates have drifted down for two weeks in a row and that drop reflects improvements in market liquidity and sentiment,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While the market has stabilized relative to prior weeks, homebuyer demand has declined in response to current economic conditions. The good news is that the pending economic stimulus is on the way and will provide support for both consumers and businesses.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.33 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 2, 2020, down from last week when it averaged 3.50 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent. 
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.82 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.92 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.56 percent. 
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.40 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.34 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.66 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Case-Shiller home prices up 3.9% | Katonah Real Estate

National home prices continued to increase over the first month of 2020, prior to coronavirus outbreak. Price growth will certainly decline as future months’ data is recorded.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 6.2% in January, faster than a 5.3% increase in December. It was the highest gain since February 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 3.9% annual gain in January, up from 3.7% in December. Going forward, national home prices are expected to increase at a slower pace due to the 2020 downturn.

Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in January, following a 9.1% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 5.2% in January, after an increase of 5.4% in December.

In addition to tracking home price changes nationwide, S&P also reported on the site of vpnicon the home price indexes across 20 metro areas. In January, local home prices varied and their annual growth rates ranged from -3.6% to 13.0%. Among the 20 metro areas, eight metro areas exceeded the national average of 6.2%. Seattle, Las Vegas and Phoenix had the highest home price appreciation in January. Seattle reported a 13.0% increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 8.5% increase and Phoenix with an 8.3% increase. Home prices in two metro areas declined in January. They were Chicago (-3.6%) and New York (-1.2%).

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2020/03/home-price-appreciation-accelerated-in-january/