Daily Archives: June 4, 2012

The 20 Most Miserable Places In The World | South Salem Real Estate

As the Greek economy deteriorates further, the country’s people have grown despondent over a lack of leadership and failed austerity measures.

But on a list of the most miserable countries in the world, Greece wouldn’t even crack the worst 50. 

The misery index, a crude economic theory created by Arthur Orkum, sums a country’s unemployment and inflation rates to assess conditions on the ground (the higher the number, the worse off a country is). 

The reasoning: you can tell a great deal about an economy by a soaring jobless rate and a population that can afford less and less of required goods.

Business Insider totaled the figures for 197 countries and territories — from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe — to compile the 2012 Misery Index.

Note: Results are based on CIA World Factbook data, which estimates figures for countries and territories that do not have reliable local reporting agencies.

FHA Foreclosures Soared in April | Waccabuc NY Homes for sale

FHA foreclosures rose 73 percent in April, driven primarily by defaults of loans made in 2008 and 2009 vintage loans, raising new questions about the solvency of the popular government program, which accounts for about a third of all new mortgages.

New foreclosures on FHA-backed loans rose to 63,126 in April from 36,311 a month earlier, mortgage-data provider Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS) said yesterday.

“In 2008, when the loan origination market virtually dried up, the FHA stepped in to fill the void,” explained Herb Blecher, senior vice president for LPS Applied Analytics, which released the data of FHA foreclosures in its May Mortgage Monitor Report. “FHA originations tripled that year, and increased to five times historical averages in 2009. High volumes like that, even with low default rates, can produce larger numbers of foreclosure starts. That represents a lot of loans to work through – the 2008 vintage alone represents some $14 billion of unpaid balances in foreclosure, and the overall FHA foreclosure inventory continues to rise.

The FHA immediately challenged the data, saying its own numbers showed an 11 percent drop in April foreclosures to 18,975. LPS may have erred extrapolating numbers from its database of information on 40 million loans, said an FHA spokesman.

The LPS report showed that defaults for loans written from 2004 through 2010 rose in April, but the largest spike was in loans originated in 2008 and 2009. Since the 2008-2009 period, when FHA lending exploded as private lenders pulled out of the housing market, reaching nearly 2.5 million loans, FHA has instituted higher lending standards, including higher credit requirements and increased mortgage insurance premiums to reduce its risk. As a result, default rates on loans written after 2008 have improved significantly, according to LPS.

Though FHA foreclosures are still far below private lenders as a percentage of total inventory, the sheer dollar volume of LPS figures could have a significant implications for the agency’s portfolio, especially if the trend continues.

Weaker Home Sales Seen in 2012 | Bedford Hills NY Real Estate

Record low mortgage rates are failing to generate stimulate mortgage applications for home purchases, which are down 3.9 percent below last year’s level.  As a result, last week the Mortgage Bankers Association lowered its 2012 estimate for home sales.

MBA is lowered its purchase originations forecast for 2012 from $415 billion to $409 billion, as a result of sagging applications and lower expectations for home sales. The association now predicts existing home sales for the year will reach 4.6 million, an increase of less than one percent from 2011.  Despite a 5.5 percent drop in April pending home sales, the National Association of Realtors upgraded its sales forecast last week, to a total 4.66 million units in 2012, slightly higher than the MBA.  There were 4.26 million sales in 2011.forecast has been upgraded, with existing-home sales expected to reach this year, compared with

The Realtors blamed strict standards imposed by lenders for depressing sales, noting that if lending were normal, their 2013 outlook for existing-home sales, which is currently 4.92 million units, would improve to 5.3 million.

At the same time that the MBA lowered its target for purchase mortgages, it raised its forecast for refinancing applications, which resulted in an overall mortgage origination forecast for 2012 by higher almost $200 billion.  MBA now expects that mortgage originations will reach $1.28 trillion in 2012, up from $1.26 trillion in 2011. The refinance estimate for 2012 reflects an upward revision of $188 billion from MBA’s April forecast, driven by an increase in the pace of refinance applications and originations.  Refinance originations are now expected to total $870 billion in 2012, an almost identical amount to 2011.

“Scenarios we have consistently highlighted that could drive rates down and refis up have materialized, primarily due to market turmoil in Europe,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research. “Deterioration of the debt situation in Spain and Greece and a new regime in France that is a weaker proponent of European austerity, along with slower economic growth globally, have driven the US Ten Year Treasury yield down. Thus, we are projecting lower U.S. mortgage rates for the rest of the year and raising our refinance forecast as a result.”

Last week MBA reported that mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from the previous week.  Its seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 3.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

House Poor: What’s the Matter with Kids Today? | Bedford NY Real Estate

Every Friday morning my real estate team-Bea Meriwether, real estate agent and Earnest S. Crowe, mortgage guy-meets for coffee at the Deli Delight in what’s left of downtown Mirage Mills, the Chernobyl of American real estate and the epicenter of the foreclosure crisis. The other morning Bea was not merry at all. She held a printout of a news story from her favorite site, Realty Reality. It was coffee-stained and crumpled, as if she had retrieved it from a wastebasket.

“Did you see this?” She seethed, waving it at us. “This survey says 24 percent of young people today never plan to buy a home. How could they RENT FOR THE REST OF THEIR LIVES?”

I glanced over the article. It was one of those surveys about Gen X or Y or whatever letter young people call themselves now. “Shoot, Bea” I said calmly. “When I was under 23, I had no clue about getting married, having kids, owning a home. But today I’m considered an expert homeowner.”

Earnest also tried to calm her down. “It’s just a survey cooked up by the rental industry. They ask the questions so that they get the answers they want. Next week some other survey will come out and say the exact opposite: there’s nothing wrong with kids today; they can’t wait to buy a house.”

She frowned. “I don’t think so. This is serious. The real estate industry dies without a constant influx of new buyers. Without first-time buyers, move-up buyers can’t sell and move up. The housing ladder breaks down and everything freezes,” Bea said.

I wondered what they call move-up buyers when they can’t move up. Stuck up?

“The sad thing is, I believe the survey. I think we may be losing the next generation,” Bea continued. “I can’t remember the last time a young couple with stars in their eyes walked into the agency.”

“Come to think of it, I haven’t pre-approved anyone under 30 in six months and it’s been almost as long since I had a first-timer,” said Earnest.

Bea slumped back in her chair and sighed. “I’ll tell you one thing. If my daughter ever told me that she never wants to buy a home, it would break my heart.”

Knowing Bea’s only child, Millie Meriwether, I secretly agreed that she had good reason to worry. The punk rock princess of MM High dropped out of school five years ago for a boyfriend and a burger job. Now Millie, with purple hair and a pin cushion-full of piercings, rang up customers at Willie’s Hardware in Mirage Mills Mall. Not much of a homeownership prospect any time soon.

When my team gathered the following Friday, Bea had some news. “Earnest, you were wrong.”

“I am often wrong,” said Earnest with mock humility.

“I know for a fact that kids today don’t always move back home to avoid homeownership. They do it to save for a down payment so that they can BECOME homeowners.”

“So just how do you know that?” I asked.

She smiled. “Millie is moving back in with us so that she can save for a down payment. They want to buy a house. They’re moving in this weekend.”

“They?”

“Well, Melvin too.” Melvin was Millie’s boyfriend, a fellow punker who Millie supported as he pursued a musical career with a rock band. “I’m proud of them both,” she said defiantly.

Two months passed before the topic of youthful homeownership returned to our Friday morning get-togethers.

“Earnest, I need your help,” Bea said . “The kids are driving us crazy. We can’t wait two years for them to save enough for a down payment, so I’ve offered to help them out. But they can’t get a mortgage.”

“I’m not surprised,” said Earnest. “They need steady jobs, a better income-to-debt ratio, and underwriters don’t look kindly on parents paying down payments. These days, borrowers need to be self-sufficient.”

Earnest did his best. He called in every chit he could think of and restructured the loan application several different ways, but the go-go days of mortgage lending are long over and no bank would touch Millie and Melvin.

So Bea and her husband Morley did the only thing they could think of. They told Millie and Melvin that the house was too much for them and the time had come to downsize. Over the young couples’ protests, they sold at a lot less than they would have received ten years ago and moved into a condo in the city.

The kids found themselves on their own again but they found another way to save for a down payment. As I was walking the dog one evening, I noticed Millie’s Scion parked a couple of blocks away from my house, in front of a modest ranch that had been vacant more than a year but had no “bank-owned” for sale sign.

I saw Millie sneak out the back door and head for her car. She stopped when she saw me and said sheepishly, “Hi, Mr. Guthrie, I guess we’re neighbors. Kinda.”

“I didn’t know this house is for rent,” I said.

“Oh, it isn’t. You see, we’d like to buy it someday. Since it was just sitting empty we thought we would try it out to see if we liked it. Don’t worry. We’re taking good care of it. It was a real mess when we moved in but we’re fixing it up.”

“Well,” I said. “Good luck.”

So the American dream, a little battered and bruised, lives on in a new generation, I mused as I walked home. Maybe Millie and Melvin weren’t really much different than the homeless Europeans who squatted on Indian lands that seemed to be sitting empty and could use some fixing up.

Local Market Reports: Foreclosure Rates | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Since February of 2011, the foreclosure rate has fallen in many metro areas around the country. The markets with the largest absolute declines were dominated by markets that experienced the harshest impact from the subprime meltdown and subsequent housing market recession. Las Vegas experienced a decline of 3.4%, from 8.3% in February of 2011 to 4.9% in February of 2012. Markets in Michigan and Arizona also made the top 10 in terms of largest absolute change, but Florida dominated the list with five markets and several more in the next group of ten (e.g. 11-20 largest improvements). Seattle was a surprise on the list, improving 0.8%, from 2.0% to 1.2% over this same 12-month period and is less than half the national foreclosure rate of 2.8%.

For more information on foreclosure patterns in local housing markets, see the Local Market Reports for the 1st quarter of 2012.

Employment for Bedford Corners NY Real Estate

In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the latest employment figures.

  • A net job gain of 69,000 jobs in May will continue to add more people into the pool of potential homebuyers and increase demand for commercial real estate spaces. However, job gains of 200,000 is needed every month for the next 8 years to get the unemployment rate down to 5%.
  • The slow job gains and more people entering the labor force resulted in the unemployment rate ticking up to 8.2%.
  • Because of the elevated unemployment rate, there are only slight wage gains. A typical wage rate is now $23.41, which is up 1.7% from one year ago. Unfortunately, all the wage gain is getting eaten by inflation, which rose by 2.3% over the same period.
  • There is good news in that the higher paying manufacturing sector is adding jobs. Health care-related jobs rose the strongest, with 33,000 net job additions. But surprisingly, construction jobs fell by 28,000, which is counterintuitive to the recent rises in housing starts. Most of these job cuts appear to be related to highway and other heavy civil engineering cutbacks.
  • Meanwhile, REALTOR® membership figures are down by 3% from one year ago. Recent gains in industry activity and income will therefore be shared by fewer numbers of members this year.
  • Given the latest data, the jobs forecast for this year looks to be 1.7 to 1.9 million, rather than the 2.0 to 2.5 million jobs anticipated at the beginning of the year.

Time That Homes Are On the Market When Sold – Slight Decrease | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

According to the April Realtors® Confidence Index report, as of April 2012, 27 percent of properties had been on the market for six months or more when sold. In contrast, 48 percent had been on the market for three months or less. Additional information on a variety of topics related to current residential market conditions may be found here.