Mirroring the uneven economic recovery, the housing market is expected to move in a slow, gradual upward path in 2012, while encountering its share of speed bumps along the road, according to economists participating in yesterday’s National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) construction forecast webinar on the housing and economic outlook.

While the latest monthly housing data have shown signs of a slight softening, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said this is more reflective of typical month-to-month volatility in the numbers and unusual seasonal factors than they are an indication of any significant downward trend in the broader housing market.

“The aggregate information suggests we’re just in a pause mode right now in terms of these measures,” said Crowe, who noted this could partly be the result of an early spring that brought much better weather than usual into the picture at the start of this year and pulled some housing activity forward.

Pointing out that less volatile quarterly data have continued to show modest improvement in key housing indicators such as builder sentiment, new-home sales and housing production, Crowe said the “housing outlook continues to slowly brighten.”

Crowe noted that numerous other fundamentals remain positive for housing at this time, including demographic factors (with pent-up household demand expected to ramp up and echo-boomers heading into their prime household formation ages), historically favorable mortgage rates that are not expected to move higher than 5 percent by the end of next year, more than 100 local markets currently listed on the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, and the fact that house price-to-income ratio has now returned to its historical average of about three-to-one versus the nearly five-to-one to which it had previously risen during the height of the housing boom.

However, he cautioned that housing still continues to face formidable challenges of its own – such as rising foreclosures, persistently tight lending standards for home buyers and builders and difficulties in obtaining accurate appraisals. Moreover, disappointing job growth numbers in March and uncertainty in the European economy are undermining prospects for a vigorous recovery.

“No one is anticipating that an upward path for housing will run in a straight-line trajectory,” said Crowe. “The economy is in an uneven recovery and we can expect some corresponding ups-and-downs in the housing market in the months ahead. However, NAHB believes that on the whole, we can expect a slow and gradual recovery in housing starts, home sales and the overall housing market in 2012.”

Home prices fell to post-recession lows in the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national indices.  Home values in nine metro areas also reached record lows, the report said.  

S&P said its 10-city composite index experienced an annual home price decline of 3.6% in February, while the 20-city composite index declined 3.5% from a year earlier. 

This is a slight improvement from January when the indices declined 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively, year-over-year. 

“While there might be pieces of good news in this report, such as some improvement in many annual rates of return, February 2012 data confirm that, broadly-speaking, home prices continued to decline in the early months of the year,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices.

“Nine MSAs — Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa — hit new post-crisis lows. Atlanta continued its downward spiral, posting its lowest annual rate of decline in the 20-year history of the index at -17.3%.”

The Atlanta metro area suffered the worst, experiencing a year-over-year home price decline of 17.3%.

Five metros did see positive annual returns, including Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Phoenix. 

Blitzer added, “Atlanta has now recorded five consecutive months of double-digit negative annual rates and seven consecutive monthly declines. On the other hand, Phoenix has posted two consecutive months of positive annual rates, with its latest being positive 3.3%, and five consecutive positive monthly returns.” 

2012 NAR Statistical News Release Schedule
April 19	March Existing-Home Sales
April 26	March Pending Home Sales Index
May 9	1st Qtr. Metro Home Prices/State Resales
May 22	April Existing-Home Sales
May 24	Commercial Real Estate Report/Forecast
May 30	April Pending Home Sales Index
June 21	May Existing-Home Sales
June 27	May Pending Home Sales Index
July 19	June Existing-Home Sales
July 26	June Pending Home Sales Index
August 9	2nd Qtr. Metro Home Prices/State Resales
August 22	July Existing-Home Sales
August 27	Commercial Real Estate Report/Forecast
August 29	July Pending Home Sales Index
September 19	August Existing-Home Sales
September 27	August Pending Home Sales Index
October 19	September Existing-Home Sales
October 25	September Pending Home Sales Index
November 7	3rd Qtr. Metro Home Prices/State Resales
November 19	October Existing-Home Sales
November 26	Commercial Real Estate Report/Forecast
November 29	October Pending Home Sales Index
December 20	November Existing-Home Sales
December 28	November Pending Home Sales Index

NAR’s Analysis of Economic Indicators

NAR’s analysis of economic indicators provides its members with the tools to interpret economic trends and apply that knowledge to their business. NAR Research analyzes the most important economic indicators that influence real estate markets. In addition to NAR’s own existing-home sales and Pending Home Sales Index, other indicators such as new-home sales, housing starts, mortgage interest rates, employment, Gross Domestic Product and the Consumer Price Index are monitored by the Research staff. All these indicators are used by NAR analysts to prepare the Association’s economic forecast, which can be accessed in the Research section, under Housing Statistics. For the latest, check NAR’s news releases.

Some 244 lawsuits were tracked in Mortgage Daily’s fourth-quarter 2011 Mortgage Litigation Index the highest number since the index’s 2007 launch.

Foreclosure cases dominated quarterly mortgage litigation activity and show no sign of relenting.  Case count jumped from 218 in the third quarter and 151 in the fourth-quarter 2010.  Among categories to show the worst deterioration were criminal, servicing and mortgage fraud. But investor actions slowed.

“Unfortunately, the phenomena that led to the surge in litigation in the fourth quarter of 2011 have only intensified in 2012, suggesting that we are unlikely to see a significant decline in litigation in the near term,” Christopher Willis, a partner at Ballard Spahr LLP, who prepared an analysis of the data.

Criminal cases climbed to 57 from the third quarter’s 34; activity on litigation related to mortgage servicing grew to 70 cases from 51; and mortgage fraud cases, those typically involving insiders at mortgage firms or a foreclosure-rescue scheme, increased to 23 from just five during the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, cases related to fees leapt to 17 in the fourth quarter from the prior period’s two. Another category with a big increase was “title,” which expanded to 46 cases from 31.

To be honest with you, I can’t remember much about the first comment I ever received on a blog post I’d written. It was back sometime in 2000, after all!

What I do remember is the thrill. When that first reader comments on your blog, you know you’ve finally reached someone. Your writing has moved one of the people who’s arrived at your blog to respond.

Whether the comment’s long or short, detailed or simple, it doesn’t much matter: that first real (non-spam) comment is a milestone for any blogger.

Comments are always an issue for bloggers.

When you’re waiting for that first-ever comment, you dream of the days when your blog’s swamped with thoughtful comments the way the A-list blogs are.

But experienced bloggers have other considerations to tackle—and they’re not just about finding time to sift through spam or respond to commenters. As your blog grows, and attracts more comments, you’ll probably find yourself wanting to create the right kind of culture around comments, and that’ll dictate the kinds of comments you send to trash, respond to, and maybe even highlight in posts you write.

So all of us—not just those starting out—need ideas that we can use to generate comments on our blogs, and comments of the right type (no trolls, please!). Recently, I asked some experienced bloggers if they’d share their wisdom with us in a series of posts on generating comments. I’ll be publishing their responses throughout the week, starting today, and I hope we’ll all find it useful!

For now, though, I’d love to hear where you’re at with comments on your blog. Are you still waiting for that all-important first one? Are you reaching a point where you’ve had to reduce the proportion of comments you respond to? Or have you turned comments off altogether? Share your experience with us … in the comments!

What if we were to stop thinking about social media in terms of likes, followers, pins, re-blogs and ROI $ and instead thought of it as a storytelling tool or a customer service platform?

Thinking of social platforms as a meeting place for like-minded individuals (‘fans’) to discuss their common interests (‘the brand’) enables companies to not only enhance their commitment to each individual customer, but also to inadvertently facilitate the storytelling process. Giving people a place to share their stories not only generates rich brand-inspired conversations, but plays off one of the greatest marketing techniques of all time: word of mouth.

In the age of social media, consumers are the true brand owners; what they have to say about a brand will ultimately shape its reputation both on and offline. A positive review on Amazon or Yelp can be much more influential in determining a brand’s success than any PR or ad campaign. By leveraging their online communities, companies can use this grassroots marketing movement to their advantage.

One company that’s getting this right is Steam Whistle Brewery. I recently had the opportunity to speak with their community manager, Marina Arnaout, about the company’s consumer-centric approach to social media.

Much like their do-one-thing-really-well approach to beer making, using social channels to connect with consumers is a natural extension of the Steam Whistle brand. “For us, social media is about engaging in transparent, two-way conversations with Steam Whistle drinkers. It’s never been about finding a way to put a numerical value on a consumer,” said Marina. “At the core, social media is really about customer service. It’s real-time, it’s constantly on, and it’s definitely the future of our industry,” she added.

This fan-centric approach – focusing on fan engagement levels instead of ROI $ – has helped Steam Whistle cultivate a passionate community of brand ambassadors both on and offline. Want proof? Check out Trip Advisor, where fans of the brewery have ranked it as one of the top ten tourist attractions in Ontario.

Author: Laura Chambers     Laura Chambers on the Web Laura Chambers on Facebook Laura Chambers on Twitter Laura Chambers on LinkedIn Laura Chambers on Google Plus Laura Chambers RSS Feed

Digital Content Co-ordinator at Nurun… View full profile

This article originally appeared on Digital for Real Life and has been republished with permission.

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