Though a number of critical questions face the US economy, from the unfinished business in Washington like the debt limit and spending cuts to lackluster growth, the outlook for mortgage rates is relatively predictable and not very exciting.
Rates will stay low, below 4 percent on a thirty-year fixed mortgage, predicts Bankrate.com senior financial analyst Greg McBride. Even the prospect that Congress might finally act on reforming the GSEs does not deter him from his view that the Fed will not abandon QE3 in light of the fragility of both the national economy and housing economies.
With Fannie and Freddie originating 90 percent of new mortgages, removing the government guarantee that helps make these loans possible would ruin the recovery. “Say what they want about ending the GSEs, it’s not going to happen,” said McBride.
Nor does he see significant changes in lending standards that many claim are making it too difficult for first-time buyers to get financing. “Today’s median FICO of 750 and other financial qualifications are not insurmountable to young buyers with low debt and good jobs.” he said.
“Lukewarm jobs reports of 155,000 to 160,000 new jobs are not enough. We need to see job growth twice that size before the Fed should even think about changing its policies,” he said.
This week on Bankrate.com’s Rate Trend Index, 55 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so, 27 percent think rates will fall, and 18 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the mortgage field to see if they believe mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. The panel is comprised of mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers.
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Despite New Health Law, Some See Sharp Rise in Premiums | Katonah NY Real Estate
Particularly vulnerable to the high rates are small businesses and people who do not have employer-provided insurance and must buy it on their own.
In California, Aetna is proposing rate increases of as much as 22 percent, Anthem Blue Cross 26 percent and Blue Shield of California 20 percent for some of those policy holders, according to the insurers’ filings with the state for 2013. These rate requests are all the more striking after a 39 percent rise sought by Anthem Blue Cross in 2010 helped give impetus to the law, known as the Affordable Care Act, which was passed the same year and will not be fully in effect until 2014.
In other states, like Florida and Ohio, insurers have been able to raise rates by at least 20 percent for some policy holders. The rate increases can amount to several hundred dollars a month.
The proposed increases compare with about 4 percent for families with employer-based policies.
Under the health care law, regulators are now required to review any request for a rate increase of 10 percent or more; the requests are posted on a federal Web site, healthcare.gov, along with regulators’ evaluations.
The review process not only reveals the sharp disparity in the rates themselves, it also demonstrates the striking difference between places like New York, one of the 37 states where legislatures have given regulators some authority to deny or roll back rates deemed excessive, and California, which is among the states that do not have that ability.
New York, for example, recently used its sweeping powers to hold rate increases for 2013 in the individual and small group markets to under 10 percent. California can review rate requests for technical errors but cannot deny rate increases.
The double-digit requests in some states are being made despite evidence that overall health care costs appear to have slowed in recent years, increasing in the single digits annually as many people put off treatment because of the weak economy. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that costs may increase just 7.5 percent next year, well below the rate increases being sought by some insurers. But the companies counter that medical costs for some policy holders are rising much faster than the average, suggesting they are in a sicker population. Federal regulators contend that premiums would be higher still without the law, which also sets limits on profits and administrative costs and provides for rebates if insurers exceed those limits.
Critics, like Dave Jones, the California insurance commissioner and one of two health plan regulators in that state, said that without a federal provision giving all regulators the ability to deny excessive rate increases, some insurance companies can raise rates as much as they did before the law was enacted.
“This is business as usual,” Mr. Jones said. “It’s a huge loophole in the Affordable Care Act,” he said.
While Mr. Jones has not yet weighed in on the insurers’ most recent requests, he is pushing for a state law that will give him that authority. Without legislative action, the state can only question the basis for the high rates, sometimes resulting in the insurer withdrawing or modifying the proposed rate increase.
The California insurers say they have no choice but to raise premiums if their underlying medical costs have increased. “We need these rates to even come reasonably close to covering the expenses of this population,” said Tom Epstein, a spokesman for Blue Shield of California. The insurer is requesting a range of increases, which average about 12 percent for 2013.
Although rates paid by employers are more closely tracked than rates for individuals and small businesses, policy experts say the law has probably kept at least some rates lower than they otherwise would have been.
“There’s no question that review of rates makes a difference, that it results in lower rates paid by consumers and small businesses,” said Larry Levitt, an executive at the Kaiser Family Foundation, which estimated in an October report that rate review was responsible for lowering premiums for one out of every five filings.
Federal officials say the law has resulted in significant savings. “The health care law includes new tools to hold insurers accountable for premium hikes and give rebates to consumers,” said Brian Cook, a spokesman for Medicare, which is helping to oversee the insurance reforms.
“Insurers have already paid $1.1 billion in rebates, and rate review programs have helped save consumers an additional $1 billion in lower premiums,” he said. If insurers collect premiums and do not spend at least 80 cents out of every dollar on care for their customers, the law requires them to refund the excess.
As a result of the review process, federal officials say, rates were reduced, on average, by nearly three percentage points, according to a report issued last September.
In New York, for example, state regulators recently approved increases that were much lower than insurers initially requested for 2013, taking into account the insurers’ medical costs, how much money went to administrative expenses and profit and how exactly the companies were allocating costs among offerings. “This is critical to holding down health care costs and holding insurance companies accountable,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said.
While insurers in New York, on average, requested a 9.5 percent increase for individual policies, they were granted an increase of just 4.5 percent, according to the latest state averages, which have not yet been made public. In the small group market, insurers asked for an increase of 15.8 percent but received approvals averaging only 9.6 percent.
But many people elsewhere have experienced significant jumps in the premiums they pay. According to the federal analysis, 36 percent of the requests to raise rates by 10 percent or more were found to be reasonable. Insurers withdrew 12 percent of those requests, 26 percent were modified and another 26 percent were found to be unreasonable.
And, in some cases, consumer advocates say insurers have gone ahead and charged what regulators described as unreasonable rates because the state had no ability to deny the increases.
Two insurers cited by federal officials last year for raising rates excessively in nine states appear to have proceeded with their plans, said Carmen Balber, the Washington director for Consumer Watchdog, an advocacy group. While the publicity surrounding the rate requests may have drawn more attention to what the insurers were doing, regulators “weren’t getting any results by doing that,” she said.
Some consumer advocates and policy experts say the insurers may be increasing rates for fear of charging too little, and they may be less afraid of having to refund some of the money than risk losing money.
Many insurance regulators say the high rates are caused by rising health care costs. In Iowa, for example, Wellmark Blue Cross Blue Shield, a nonprofit insurer, has requested a 12 to 13 percent increase for some customers. Susan E. Voss, the state’s insurance commissioner, said there might not be any reason for regulators to deny the increase as unjustified. Last year, after looking at actuarial reviews, Ms. Voss approved a 9 percent increase requested by the same insurer.
“There’s a four-letter word called math,” Ms. Voss said, referring to the underlying medical costs that help determine what an insurer should charge in premiums. Health costs are rising, especially in Iowa, she said, where hospital mergers allow the larger systems to use their size to negotiate higher prices. “It’s justified.”
Some consumer advocates say the continued double-digit increases are a sign that the insurance industry needs to operate under new rules. Often, rates soar because insurers are operating plans that are closed to new customers, creating a pool of people with expensive medical conditions that become increasingly costly to insure.
While employers may be able to raise deductibles or co-payments as a way of reducing the cost of premiums, the insurer typically does not have that flexibility. And because insurers now take into account someone’s health, age and sex in deciding how much to charge, and whether to offer coverage at all, people with existing medical conditions are frequently unable to shop for better policies.
In many of these cases, the costs are increasing significantly, and the rates therefore cannot be determined to be unreasonable. “When you’re allowed medical underwriting and to close blocks of business, rate review will not affect this,” said Lynn Quincy, senior health policy analyst for Consumers Union.
The practice of medical underwriting — being able to consider the health of a prospective policy holder before deciding whether to offer coverage and what rate to charge — will no longer be permitted after 2014 under the health care law.
Look at how great a Google smartwatch could be | Katonah Realtor
Katonah NY Realtor | How to Increase Blog Reader Engagement
Companies are always excited when they increase in Google rankings or finally reach that PR 6 that puts them right in the rankings with all the rest. However, what many companies don’t realize is that PR isn’t always the best way to determine your place in your niche online. Page Rank and Google rankings prove to readers that Google has recognized your good SEO, but this doesn’t mean much if your readers don’t find your content engaging. One of the things (one of the very major things) that separates one PR 6 site from another, or even one PR 3 site from another, is blog reader engagement. It will take some time to gain these numbers, however, so it’s best to start creating a strategy and putting this at the top of the priority list as you enter into the New Year.
Top 5 Ways to Improve the Engagement on Your Blog
It might sound as though it’s easy to improve your engagement, but this is one area of your website that actually can turn quite difficult. It takes careful planning and even more careful analysis of your efforts to determine how to make your readers respond. A few ideas to get you started on the process include:
- Relevant Posts. This is first and foremost the most important thing to remember about reader engagement. If you’re not writing something that is current and you’re not writing something that is directly related to your niche or the keywords you are targeting, you’re going to find the wrong readers and give them the wrong information. Readers are far more likely to comment on something if it is relevant to them, so do your best to think about what is going on in the news and what advice you can give to really help.
- Related Post Plugin. On that same note, this is one of my favorite things as an editor and as a reader. This plugin is easy to use and will allow other relevant blog posts that you have written to show up on the bottom of the article. This will help readers find something that interests them by giving them more choices, and so you have a better chance that the person will respond to the text.
- Ask Questions. Giving readers a reason to respond is never a bad idea. End your posts with questions or offer a controversial or interesting thought that will provoke some responses. People are usually more apt to engage if they have a clear idea about how to really get the conversation (and even promotion) started.
- Be Readable. You want to make sure the font and size of your content is something easy to read. Not only that, but make sure that the article is formatted in a way that is easy to read—lots of bullet points, subheadings, italics and bold faced text, etc. You’ll also want to make sure that the article isn’t too long that it turns readers away. Keep it between 700 and 1400 words. There are certain instances where this may not be the case, but the majority of the time this will do the trick for your readers.
- Load Times. If your article doesn’t load fast enough, readers are going to leave and choose another one of the top ten results on Google. It’s easy, and the Internet isn’t the place to bother being patient. Google also likes to see faster load times for pages, so you’ll get an added SEO benefit. You can learn more about how to improve your load times here.
In the end, reader engagement often works like a domino affect. Once people see that hundreds of others are tweeting your articles, they will be more apt to do the same.
North Salem NY Real Estate | 23 Top Tips to Make Your Blog Posts More Conversational
Let’s face it; most blog posts that are currently being put out are simply b-o-r-i-n-g.
Dull. Unexciting. A big fail when it comes to keeping our attention.
The blogger is writing about a worthwhile topic no doubt, but the writing does nothing for the reader. It fails to engage, or draw you in. Even when you are supposed to be paying attention, you really aren’t. You keep on thinking about what else is out there. Your mind is wandering.
The writer is unable to form a connection and you end up clicking away. Hardly surprising, is it?
A tiny number of people are getting it right, though. They open their posts with a bang. They are spot on with their calls to action. Before you know it, you have read every single word and you wonder what happened to logging off for the day.
People like Jon Morrow, and Sonia Simone, and Darren himself. They are masters of engagement. They are talking directly to you. Only you.
How on earth do they do it? How do they make you stay put even though your pots are boiling over and your kids are screaming for dinner? Turns out they have quite a few tricks up their sleeves.
Let’s take a look, shall we?
Write like you talk—only better
You have probably heard this advice before, but we will take it up a notch here. Dig a little deeper. What does exactly it mean to write like you talk?
1. The most important word in blogging is “you”
Address you audience. Imagine you are sitting across the table from a really close friend, and write your post for them. You are allowed ask rhetorical questions, but cut down on ums and ahs. It makes for poor talking and appalling writing.
2. Mirror their responses
Say things like, “so you feel like nobody’s paying attention …” or “I know crafting effective calls to action can be really hard.”
What have your readers been telling you? Use some of their language to reflect that you are paying attention.
3. Use contractions
Some people hardly ever use any. They stay proper, but that’s not how you talk to a friend. Use don’t, isn’t, it’s. Make it less stilted. Make it flow better and sound like human speech.
4. Be bold with exclamatory phrases
By this, I mean things like “Oh no!” and “Holy cow!”
Psst! Watch some reality TV or reporting shows. See how they keep you glued to the set with exclamations.
5. Ignore your high school English teacher—within reason
Your old English teacher was right when she told you to choose the right word, make it vivid and interesting and add adjectives to your prose.
This is not something you should mess with. You can, however, get away with breaking some rules of grammar. You just need to know which.
5. Use fragments
Like this one. Believe it or not, it is fine to use them even if you are not actually saying them out loud.
6. Start your sentences with a preposition
But that is not grammatically correct, you say. Well, this is one of those rules.
7. Stay away from adverbs
On most occasions that add nothing to your writing. Most of them are redundant like scream loudly, sigh sadly. Use sparingly.
8. Don’t be afraid to use a bit of slang, but don’t go overboard
Dig?
9. Use exclamation points when necessary
Cut back on the usage though. Dramatically.
10. Write at an eighth-grade reading level
Reader’s Digest does it. So can you. Keep it simple.
11. Avoid being formal
Instead of saying however, moreover, or furthermore, say but, so, or then. We are aiming for conversational here. Get a dialogue going.
12. Avoid jargon
Corporate lingo, marketing speak, gobbledygook. Call it what you want, if it is unintelligible, it has no business being there.
13. Use short words
Leave the thesaurus alone. Stephen King suggests picking the first word that comes to mind (in most cases). That’s gold.
14. Don’t be wordy
Notice how eyes begin to glaze over when it happens in face-to-face conversations?
Same is the case in the virtual world. Keep it tight; nobody likes people who ramble.
15. Don’t use the passive voice
Consider these options:
- A decision was made vs. I decided.
- Your email has been received vs. we have received your email.
- Your response is appreciated vs. we appreciate your response.
Which sounds better? You decide (or, it has to be decided by you)!
16. Avoid monologue (keep paragraphs short)
You are not really having a conversation, we get it, but does it have to come across like a lecture? Keep your paragraphs short. Talk to readers, not at them. Don’t preach.
17. Forget about being politically correct
“He or she” is fine. Nobody will say anything, I promise.
18. Show off your personality
Pretend you are writing an email to a close friend. What’s different about this writing? It’s more authentic, more genuine, more you.
19. Don’t use words that you won’t use while talking
Is it something you’d say to somebody’s face? If not, it might be a good idea to skip it.
20. Use phrases that only you would use
Put your unique stamp on all your writing.
21. Ask hard-to-answer questions
Exercise tough love. Make their brains hurt!
22. Watch your tone
Snarky, inspirational, flippant, self-deprecating, tough … how do you want to come across? Carry it throughout your piece. Be consistent.
23. Take a stand
Say what you mean. What’s the point otherwise?
You are writing for the most important person there is—your reader. Do you want to be clever or engaging? The choice is yours.
Latest from the NAR re the fiscal cliff and realtors | Cross River Realtor
Below is the press release from the National Association of Realtors regarding the new bill that has been passed. Please note the highlighted areas as they pertain to the ramifications for the housing industry.
The U.S. House of Representatives late Tuesday passed the Senate legislation to avert the “fiscal cliff,” paving the way for enactment by President Barack Obama. “[T]his agreement is the right thing to do for our country,” the president said on Monday. The House vote was 257 for and 167 against.
Under the agreement, tax rates would remain the same for most households and mortgage cancellation relief is extended. The “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012’’ extends current tax rates for all households earning less than $450,000, and $400,000 for individual filers. For households earning above these limits, tax rates would revert to where they were in 2003, when taxes were reduced across the board. That means taxpayers in the highest bracket would pay taxes on ordinary income at a rate of 39.6 percent, up from 35 percent.
The tax rate on capital gains would also remain the same, at 15 percent, for most households, but for those earning above the $400,000-$450,000 threshold, the rate would rise to 20 percent.
Importantly from NAR’s perspective, the exclusion from taxes for gains on the sale of a principal residence of up to $500,000 ($250,000 for individuals) remains in effect, so only home sellers whose income is $450,000 or above and the gain on the sale of their house is above $500,000 would pay taxes on the excess capital gains at the higher rate (with corresponding numbers for individual filers). For the vast majority of home sellers, there is no change.
The bill also reinstates provisions that phase out personal exemptions and deductions for incomes over $250,000 for singles and $300,000 for couples.
A number of what lawmakers call extenders are in the bill. Extenders keep in place expiring tax provisions. Of most interest to real estate, the bill would extend mortgage cancellation relief for home owners or sellers who have a portion of their mortgage debt forgiven by their lender, typically in a short sale or foreclosure sale for sellers and in a modification for owners. Without the extension, any debt forgiven would be taxable, which, for underwater households, represents a financial burden.
Also extended are deductions for mortgage insurance premiums and for state and local property taxes, which, along with the mortgage interest deduction, are important tax considerations for home owners and buyers.
In two other important provisions, the alternative minimum tax (AMT) is permanently adjusted for inflation, making it unnecessary for Congress to adjust it each year. The AMT was enacted in 1969 to help ensure a minimum tax bill for high-income households that would otherwise minimize their taxes by shielding much of their income in deductions and using other tax strategies. Because it was never indexed to inflation, AMT threatens to catch middle-income households in the tax, so Congress each year adjusts it. Now the adjustment would be permanent.
The other key provision is a change in the estate tax so that estates would be taxed at a top rate of 40 percent, with the first $5 million in value exempted for individual estates and $10 million for family estates. Currently, the top rate is 35 percent.
The other side of the fiscal cliff is hundreds of billions of dollars in automatic, across-the-board federal spending cuts, with a disproportionate share of the cuts affecting defense spending. The Senate bill would push back the deadline for the cuts for two months.
Excerpt from a White House summary of the agreement:
- Restores the 39.6 percent rate for high-income households, as in the 1990s: The top rate would return to 39.6 percent for singles with incomes above $400,000 and married couples with incomes above $450,000.
- Capital gains rates for high-income households return to Clinton-era levels: The capital gains rate would return to what it was under President Clinton, 20 percent. Counting the 3.8 percent surcharge from the Affordable Care Act, dividends and capital gains would be taxed at a rate of 23.8 percent for high-income households. These tax rates would apply to singles above $400,000 and couples above $450,000.
- Reduced tax benefits for households making over $250,000 (for singles) and $300,000 (for couples): The agreement reinstates the Clinton-era limits on high-income tax benefits, the phaseout of itemized deductions (“Pease”) and the Personal Exemption Phaseout (“PEP”), for couples with incomes over $300,000 and singles with incomes over $250,000. These two provisions reduce tax benefits for high-income households. This sets the stage for future balanced approaches to deficit reduction, which could include additional revenue through tax reforms that reduce tax benefits for Americans making over $250,000.
- Raises tax rates on the wealthiest estates: The agreement raises the tax rate on the wealthiest estates – worth upwards of $5 million per person – from 35 percent to 40 percent, in contrast to Republican proposals to continue the current estate tax levels.
- The agreement’s $620 billion in revenue is 85 percent of the amount raised by the Senate-passed bill, if that bill had been enacted and made permanent: The agreement locks in $620 billion in high-income revenue over the next ten years. In contrast, the bill passed by Democrats in the Senate achieved approximately $70 billion through one-year provisions; these same provisions could have raised a total of $715 billion over ten years if Congress acted again to extend it permanently. However, the Senate bill itself locked in only one year’s worth of savings so would have required additional extensions to achieve those savings.
Kenneth R. Trepeta Esq.
Director – Real Estate Services
National Association of Realtors®
500 New Jersey Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20001
(202) 383-1294
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Fiscal cliff bill extends tax relief for struggling homeowners facing foreclosure | Katonah NY Real Estate
The fiscal cliff agreement reached Tuesday will extend a tax exemption for distressed homeowners. Without the extension of a 2007 law, mortgage debt forgiven in foreclosure, loan modifications or short sales would have been considered taxable income. The Associated PressExpiring tax exemptions for homeowners facing foreclosure, a relatively uncontroversial response to the foreclosure crisis that had lingered for months on Congress’ to-do list, will be extended in the fiscal cliff deal approved late Tuesday.
Debt canceled through a foreclosure, a short sale or a loan modification on a primary residence was considered taxable income until 2007’s Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act. Under the fiscal cliff bill passed by Congress and awaiting the president’s signature, that forgiven debt will remain untaxed for another year.
Without an extension, short sales and loan modifications would have come with an increased tax burden on an already struggling homeowner. That would likely have pushed more to fight foreclosure, dragging out the impact of the foreclosure crisis on the housing market.
Don McCredie, a principal broker with Realty Trust Group in Lake Oswego, spent the last days of the 2012 shuttling paperwork for a short sale that closed the day after Christmas. The seller, he said, would have backed out if the increased tax burden took effect.
“If this didn’t close by the end of the year, he wasn’t going to take a chance,” he said. “They seemed really concerned about having to pay taxes on the bank’s losses.”
Meanwhile, despite renewed interest in short sales among both struggling homeowners and banks, fewer have been coming across his desk in recent weeks (though that’s also a seasonally slow period for home sales).
“I would be willing to bet some people are holding off,” he said.
The act now expires Jan. 1, 2014. The relevant bit of legalese:
SEC. 202. EXTENSION OF EXCLUSION FROM GROSS INCOME OF DISCHARGE OF QUALIFIED PRINCIPAL RESIDENCE INDEBTEDNESS.
(a) IN GENERAL.—Subparagraph (E) of section 108(a)(1) is amended by striking ‘‘January 1, 2013’’ and inserting ‘‘January 1, 2014’’.(b) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendment made by this section shall apply to indebtedness discharged after December 31, 2012.
California Foreclosure laws go into effect | Katonah Real Estate
Hundreds of new laws take effect Tuesday• From high-speed rail to pipeline safety to foreclosure protections
• “Will give Californians a fair opportunity to stay in their homes”
The fruits of a year of work by legislators are harvested by constituents beginning Tuesday with some 800 new laws kicking in as the New Year rings in.
Among the new laws that could have immediate impact on the Central Valley, epicenter of the nation’s foreclosure crisis, is the package of legislation that extends key mortgage and foreclosure protections to California homeowners and borrowers.
Dubbed the California Homeowner Bill of Rights, the new laws restrict dual-track foreclosures, guarantee struggling homeowners a reliable point of contact at their lender and impose civil penalties on fraudulently signed mortgage documents. In addition, homeowners may require loan servicers to document their right to foreclose.
“For too long, struggling homeowners in California have been denied fairness and transparency when dealing with their lending institutions,” says Attorney General Kamala Harris, who pushed for the new laws. “These laws give homeowners new rights as they work through the foreclosure process and will give Californians a fair opportunity to stay in their homes.”
Other new laws include:
• Another new law impacts the California High-Speed Rail project, due to start construction first in the Central Valley.
It requires the High-Speed Rail Authority to encourage purchasing high-speed train rolling stock and equipment made in California consistent with federal and state law and continued investment in California businesses.
• Natural-gas pipeline safety upgrades are required by several new laws. One requires disclosure of gas transmission lines when a home is sold, another forces the Public Utilities Commission to finally answer the recommendations of the National Transportation Safety Board’s investigation of the San Bruno pipeline blast that killed eight people and leveled a residential neighborhood.
• Women who breast-feed their children will be protected from harassment by their employers. A new law puts breast-feeding under the scope of the Fair Employment and Housing Act.
• Another business-related law says that employees and former employees have the right to obtain copies of their personnel records. Businesses will have to provide them within 30 days.
• Employers and higher-education officials will now be banned from asking for applicants’ social-media user names and passwords.
• Another law lurches California into step with much of the rest of the world by allowing juveniles who have been sentenced to life without parole the opportunity to petition for a new sentence of 25 years to life. The United States is the only country in the world that sentences children to life in prison without the possibility of parole. According to state Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, the author of the new law, California has over 300 youth serving this sentence and who without SB 9 would have died in prison without any chance to earn release.
• SB 1001 increases fees required of registered lobbyists, ballot measure committees, and independent expenditure committees, in order to finance the maintenance of the state campaign and lobbying database known as Cal-Access, which keeps the public informed as to who is influencing their elected officials.




