Nominal house prices will continue to rise for the UFA 100, a broad based composite index of 100 US cities. Under current economic conditions commonly used house price indices will rise between 8.5 and 22 percent cumulatively over the next five years, but recovery will be slow for the larger metro areas in the Case-Shiller 10 city composite.
These are the key findings of the latest UFA Mortgage Report by University Financial Associates of Ann Arbor, which successfully predicted increased defaults in Southern California in the mid-90s and the current increases in defaults.
“UFA’s nominal, five-year house price forecasts are solidly positive at both the state and metro area levels,” said Dennis Capozza, who is the Dale Dykema Professor of Business Administration in the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, and a founding principal of UFA. “This forecast confirms that for lenders, homebuyers and investors in the residential real estate and mortgage markets it is once again safe in most metro areas to go back in the water.”
UFA has provided accurate and timely house price predictions since 1990 -the original and most credible house price forecasts available. The research that UFA’s principals have done underlies many other popular house price forecasts.
The UFA forecast is rosier than the latest price expectations survey of more than 100 experts and economists by Pulsenomics for Zillow. The September 2012 edition of the Zillow survey found that professional forecasters expect home prices to rise by an average of 2.3 percent during 2012. The survey was compiled from 113 responses by a diverse group of economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists.
The Zillow survey reflects quite a change in attitude toward home prices this year given that three months ago (for the June survey), economists thought home prices were going to fall by 0.4 percent. The lowest price projection among panelist responses was a depreciation of 2.5 percent by the end of this year, while the highest was an appreciation of 9.2 percent.
By 2016, the average price increase of predictions by Zillow’s survey participants was 15.6 percent. The most pessimistic in the survey foresaw a 5.6 percent increase in prices while the most optimistic was a 24.2 percent over the next four years.
Category Archives: Chappaqua
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Using an FHA 203(k) loan to buy a college-town rental | Chappaqua NY Real Estate
Using an FHA 203(k) loan to buy a college-town rental
Student-landlord can play key role in financing
By Tom Kelly, Wednesday, September 19, 2012.
Mortgage financing image via Shutterstock.
Foreclosures and short-sales still make up a significant portion of the housing market. In fact, in some areas, distressed properties make up more than one-third of all recorded sales.
What if you were to find one in the college town where your child plans to spend the next several years of her life? What if you turned a dilapidated, community eyesore into a college rental that could serve as an alternative to dormitory living for your kid, then as a long-term housing resource for faculty and staff once she has moved on?
In a recent column, I discussed how the first question regarding a college rental is the maturity of the child/student living in and managing the property. Could she handle the responsibility and choose roommates who would not continually party and upset the neighbors? There’s a reason why local residents do not live near fraternity row and they are not happy when other homes with fraternity-like hours and behaviors suddenly pop up on their once-sleepy block.
However, let’s assume for a moment that all the stars are aligned — your kid really has her head on straight and you found a fixer-upper on a safe block where she could walk or bike to campus. With today’s low interest rates and attractive loan programs, it might make sense to do the research and see what’s possible.
In the example I used in a previous column, let’s say you found a home in a college town that cost $275,000. You would make a down payment of at least $27,500. If you finance the remaining $247,500 at an interest rate of 4 percent over 30 years, your principal and interest payment will be about $1,186 a month. Toss in taxes, fire insurance and a few light bulbs, and you will be looking at $1,300 a month — certainly doable for four mature roommates.
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When investing in a college rental makes senseLoans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development) permit expanded guidelines, such as loan-to-value ratios. More importantly, FHA allows for children to remain on the title as owner-occupants, even though the parents supply the down payment and are the actual purchasers.
One of the creative programs is the FHA 203(k), which was designed to roll all financing into one package. The borrowers can take out one mortgage loan, at a long-term fixed or adjustable rate, to finance both the acquisition and the rehabilitation of the property. The mortgage amount is based on the "as will be" (projected) value of the property and takes into account the cost of the work.
"Remember the FHA 203(k) is a program that is limited to owner-occupants," said Mark Palmer, vice present of loan production for Seattle Mortgage. "With the children on title and living in the property, it will work."
Let’s say a run-down house near a university is priced at $80,000 and needs $20,000 in repairs. The parents, as non-owner-occupants, would probably have to pay 15 percent down, or $15,000. An appraiser estimates that the house will be worth $130,000 after the work is done.
Enter the child as co-owner and landlord. The bank says based on the $130,000 appraisal, it will lend $123,750 to a qualified buyer. The kid and parents qualify for the FHA 203(k) because the child is viewed as an owner-occupant.
"The child-landlord could obtain the down payment from all gift funds from the parents," Palmer said. "The down payment required would be 3.5 percent of total acquisition cost — base purchase price plus the rehab funds."
Another piece that goes into funding the 203(k) transaction is a 10 percent holdback on the amount of the rehab funds. So, $20,000 in repairs means $2,000 would be held back. According to Palmer, if all the work stays on budget and schedule (both of those elements are very important) the money will come back to the buyer after the last draw is taken and the release of mechanic’s liens is obtained.
So, in some-fixer-upper situations, student co-owners can play a key role in securing creative financing.
Tom Kelly’s new e-book, "Bargains Beyond the Border: Get Past the Blood and Drugs: Mexico’s Lower Cost of Living Can Avert a Tearful Retirement," is available online at Apple’s iBookstore, Amazon.com, Sony’s Reader Store, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, Diesel eBook Store, and Google Editions.
Contact Tom Kelly: Letter to the Editor
Copyright 2012 Tom KellyAll rights reserved. This article may not be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever, in part or in whole, without written permission of Inman News. Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright law.
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Third Time’s a Charm? Frankie Muniz’s Home Returns to the Market | Chappaqua Realtor
Poor Frankie Muniz. First he struggled to shake his teenybopper image, and now he cannot seem to sell his Hollywood Hills home.
Listed for $3.195 million, the estate at 1229 N Wetherly Dr., Los Angeles CA 90069 has been on the market twice before, first in 2010 and then again in 2011. In the interim singer Cee Lo Green rented the home for $10,000 a month. After failing to sell in 2010, the price was dropped by $100,000 but since has remained steady despite Hollywood Hills home prices increasing 2.3 percent over the past year.
The 4,200-square-foot Hollywood Hills home has 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. With high gates, city views, a pool and exquisite interior details, this Los Angeles area home suits the celebrity lifestyle, which could bode well for Muniz getting out the middle of his housing standstill.
But don’t feel too bad for the former child star. He bought the home at the young age of 21 and recently purchased another home in the Phoenix real estate market for $2.65 million.
Is This the Most-Viewed Photo of All Time? | Chappaqua Real Estate
It may not be as well known as the Mona Lisa, but Charles O’Rear’s photo, Bliss, may have been viewed as many times, if not more.Published in 2002, the photo got most of its distribution as the default desktop wallpaper for Microsoft’s Windows XP’s “Luna” theme. O’Rear snapped the photo while he was on break from another assignment in California’s Napa Valley. O’Rear, a former National Geographic staffer, didn’t disclose what Microsoft paid for rights to the photo, but O’Rear has said it’s “extraordinary.”
Long acknowledged for its exposure across the globe, the photo drew attention once again on Monday when a photo blog claimed the audience for the photo at 1 billion. The entry got wide circulation on Google+.
However, O’Rear told Mashable that the 1 billion figure “has always been a guesstimate.” However, “All the folks I talk with agree it is the most ‘recognizable’ photo ever. If it were shown to a villager in rural China, for example, good chance they would recognize it. If it were shown to astronauts on the ISS, good bet they would know it, too. I have seen it appear in photos of the White House situation room, the Kremlin, etc.”
Can you think of a photo that might have been seen more times?









