Having recently participated on a panel at the National Apartment Summit, I had a chance to discuss drivers of demand and overall trends for the multifamily market. Investors are still bullish on the performance of the apartment sector, though they are concerned with the pace of job creation and the impact of sluggish economic growth on the under-35 years of age demographic. In addition to low wages, this group of traditional renters has also been contending with increasing education debt levels.
With payroll employment still stuck in second gear, demand for apartments has been slowing into the third and fourth quarters. Net absorption of apartment space—a measure of demand—is projected to be 54.830 units in the third quarter, with a year-end total of 219,318 units. This figure represents a noticeable improvement over last year’s demand numbers, especially in light of the supply trends.
Completions of new multifamily buildings have been rising, boosted by financing availability from Government Sponsored Enterprises. Supply of apartments is projected to total about 31,543 units in the third quarter and 80,000 units for 2012.
Given the strong demand of the past year, there’s still a gap of about 140,000 units between demand and supply of space in 2012. Vacancy rates have been declining, reaching 4.3 percent in the third quarter. However, with the slight decline in demand, national vacancies are expected to close the year at a level 4.3 percent. The local markets with the lowest availability rates are Portland, Minneapolis and New York with vacancy rates of 2.0 percent, 2.2 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, Memphis, Jacksonville and Houston continue to work through rates at or above 7.0 percent. Rent growth for office space has been positive so far and is expected to stay in the 4.0 percent range for 2012, although the underlying fundamentals are pointing to a potential slowdown.
Category Archives: Bedford Corners NY
Why You Need to Get 3 Bids for Your Construction Project | Bedford NY Realtor Robert Paul
Getting prices from contractors for your construction project probably scares the daylights out of you and for good reason: You don’t really know what you should be paying for the work.
How do you know whether the price you’re offered for your new home or remodeling project is a “good” price?
How do you know whether you’re paying too much?
There are no window stickers to compare
Hiring a contractor isn’t at all like buying a car.
By the time you get to the car dealer, you’ve already checked KBB.com, Autotrader.com, Edmunds.com and maybe a few other websites. You’ve checked newspaper car ads and talked with someone you know who bought the same car you’re considering.
You know exactly what you should pay for the car because there are hundreds — maybe thousands — of cars for sale just like the one you want; the price is pretty much set.
What’s the “set” price for your one-of-a-kind custom home or remodeling project?
How custom projects are priced
When a general contractor picks up a set of plans from the architect, he starts by making a series of take-offs — estimates of the amount of a particular finish or material based on the plans.
The contractor might estimate he’ll need 80 square feet of granite countertop in the kitchen, for example, and at $50 per square foot, that’s a line item in his bid of $4,000.
He’ll also send copies of the plans to his suppliers and subcontractors for prices on the work he’ll hire them to do. The window supplier will price each unit and send a total to the contractor, and the contractor will be responsible for figuring the price to install the windows.
The contractor will add line items for permits, insurance, temporary utility services and dozens of other things. Finally, he’ll total them all up and add his overhead and profit.
It’s a time-consuming and nerve-wracking process for the general contractor because he’s got to get it right — too high and he won’t get the job. Too low and he’ll lose money on the project.
Different contractors, different prices
Surprisingly, different contractors bidding from the same set of drawings can come up with substantially different prices, especially when the drawings aren’t as detailed as they should be. That’s too often a culprit.
But just as important, and frequently overlooked, is your choice of contractors to bid on the project.
Choose three qualified contractors, and you’ll get comparable bids. Choose poorly, and — well, read on …
Apples and oranges
We recently completed the construction drawings for a medium-sized but fairly complex remodeling and addition project with a construction budget of about $240,000.
I recommended two qualified contractors to the owner — contractors I’d worked with before and knew well. The homeowner added the third bidder, someone their neighbor had used for work on their house.
I’d also worked with that third bidder and knew he did top-quality work — but for significantly higher prices than other contractors in the area. I also knew that he rarely bid on work; he preferred designing his own projects.
I didn’t think he was a good fit for our project, but the owner insisted, and we kept him on the list. Here’s how the three prices came out on the $240,000 project:
- Bidder 1: $236,000
- Bidder 2: $243,000
- Bidder 3: $363,000
Clearly, something’s wrong with that last bid at 50 percent higher than bid No. 2 — a math error perhaps?
No, the contractor told me; that was his price. More importantly, it was the price he would expect to get on a similar project.
Imagine if the owner had chosen to not bid the project and had only taken a price from bidder No. 3 — he would never have known that he was paying $120,000 more than he had to!
This is not the contractor you’re looking for
Bidder No. 3 boasts a wall of awards, does great quality work and has a long list of satisfied clients. And if you’re willing to spend a lot more to assure quality, it might be the right choice for you.
But with the help of your architect, you should be able to get the same quality work for a far more reasonable price. And with properly-detailed drawings, a good list of specifications and three qualified, comparable contractors, your bids should come in reasonably close to each other.
Two bidders aren’t enough to give you confidence in the bids; four or five are too many to manage — and you’ll greatly decrease a contractor’s motivation to bid if he has only a 20 or 25 percent chance of getting the job.
The key is three: Always, always get three qualified bids on any significant custom home or remodeling project.
And maybe you’ll save enough on the project to go out and buy that new car you’ve been dreaming of.
How to Buy or Sell a Home That’s off the Market | Bedford Corners NY Realtor Robert Paul
It happens all the time. Sue hears that a friend of a friend, Bob, is looking to buy a place. Turns out, Sue is looking to sell her home. Or a guest in someone’s one-of-a-kind home tells the owners they’d love to buy the property, should the homeowners ever decide to sell.
And so begins the discussion between the would-be buyer and seller of a home that’s not even on the real estate market. How do they do the transaction? What steps are involved? What are the risks?
There are pros and cons for both parties and major considerations before either signs on the bottom line. But too often, these sellers and buyers get ahead of themselves and don’t think through the logistics and details. Here are seven questions to ask yourself about selling or buying a home that’s off the market.
Are both parties serious?
Buyers and sellers like the idea of making a deal off the market. But when it comes down to it, are both parties really on the same page? Has the buyer been in the market for a while? Are they truly ready to buy? Is the seller really ready to sell? Are their numbers in the same range, or is one way off?
Often, an unrealistic seller will throw out a number that’s way higher than what the market supports. They do this because they’re either uninformed or they feel they should get more because they’re risking selling off the market. On the opposite side, an uneducated buyer will throw out a lowball offer if they haven’t been in the game long enough to know the value.
How to decide on price?
Both parties have a serious commitment and are ready to do a deal. Great; now they need to agree on how to make it work.
Among other things, a price needs to be established. If they’re in the same price range but can’t agree on a number, there are a few options. One would be to have two independent appraisers come out and do formal appraisals of the property. The buyer and the seller can average the two. However, many argue that the appraised value (the number the appraiser comes up with) is always lower than the market value (the amount an able and willing buyer/seller would pay on the open market). In this case, a real estate agent may be called in; more on that in a minute.
Are there savings on the real estate commission?
Many sellers see the opportunity to sell off the market as a chance to save the agent’s standard 6 percent commission. But this can be short-sighted. First, both parties often bring a real estate agent into the transaction at some point. Second, the buyer might want the 6 percent commission deducted from the purchase price, but the seller doesn’t see it that way. For example, the seller might want $500,000. The buyer offers $470,000 ($500,000 minus the 6 percent commission). If they split the difference and the home sells for $485,000, they both win.
What ultimately happens is that the market decides the purchase price. If inventory is low and the buyer wants to make the deal work, they may pass the savings on to the seller. Or if it’s a slow market and there’s too much inventory, the seller may pass on the savings to the buyer. Many times, however, the seller and buyer agree on a number in the middle of the 6 percent, so each party benefits.
What are the risks?
The buyer and seller will likely have that little voice inside saying, “What would this sell for if it were on the market?” Buyers may wonder if they’re paying too much, while sellers might worry they could get more money on the open market. This is the risk both parties take in an off-market deal. Both the buyer and seller need to feel comfortable before they sign the contract. This is why a real estate agent is often consulted.
What is the role of the real estate agent?
With so much at stake financially and emotionally, most buyers and sellers ultimately don’t want to go it totally alone. The fear or uncertainty will outweigh any potential savings. An active buyer may have been working closely with an agent for months. A serious seller could be on the verge of signing a listing agreement. One or both may want the feedback or advice of their agents on price.
Some real estate agents will provide an opinion of value for a nominal fee or for free. Another good option is to ask the agent, in addition to providing the opinion of value, to take on the back-end parts of the deal at a discounted rate. In this case the agent might be responsible for inspections, disclosure review, title search and the contract, but not any marketing, open houses or showings. How this is negotiated is up to both parties. And be aware that some agents won’t feel it’s appropriate to reduce their fee at all.
Should you hire an attorney or escrow company?
There are some situations in which the buyer has a specific home they want to buy and a fair price is obvious to both parties. Maybe there is a one-of-a-kind home they’ve been eyeing in their neighborhood for years, and they know the value because they live nearby. Or the buyer may find a home on Zillow with a “Make Me Move” price in line with their budget. If the prices are right for both parties, and there aren’t any complications in the disclosures or inspections, they may hire an attorney or an escrow company to facilitate the deal for a flat or hourly rate.
How to cover all the bases?
If you decide not to go the formal listing and sales route, be sure to cover your bases and protect yourself legally and financially. Always go with your gut. If something doesn’t seem right or you’re uncertain, bring in the professionals. Going it alone may have its upsides, but the downsides could outweigh them in a heartbeat. Don’t be afraid to ask your real estate agent for advice. A good agent will recognize that, while a full commission would be great, two potential future referrals may be worth the time and effort.
JPM strong mortgage production tempered by servicing costs | Bedford Hills NY Homes for Sale
Home prices in Southern California hit four-year high | Bedford NY Real Estate
Southern California is on the rebound when it comes to home prices, but sales are beginning to fall as inventory levels decline, DataQuick said in a report Friday.
During the month of September, counties in Southern California saw the median home price edge up to $315,000, a 1.9% jump from $309,000 in August and a 12.5% increase from September of 2011.
It’s also the highest median in more than four years.
San Diego-based DataQuick attributes the jump to a modest supply of homes for sale and demand sparked by recent levels of affordability in the market.
Still, prices are ticking up and sales are falling with low-end deals and foreclosure resales hitting five-year lows.
Low mortgage rates and a falling supply of homes are doing two things in the region: sparking new sales and cutting back on supply levels. Meanwhile, more mid-to-high end homebuyers are moving into the market to pick up the slack while taking advantage of low interest rates.
“It appears that not quite half of the 12.5% year-over-year gain in last month’s median sale price can be attributed to a shift in the types of homes selling,” DataQuick said. “In September, price levels for the lowest-cost third of Southern California’s housing stock rose 13.2% year-over-year, while they rose 7.7% in the middle and 3.5% in the top third.”
Sale levels fell with only 17,859 properties sold in the counties of Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange during the month. That number is down 20.4% from the 22,438 sales recorded a month earlier and down 1.6% from last year.
It’s the end of speculators in UAE real estate market | Bedford Hills NY Real Estate
Is it the end of speculators and over-leveraging in the UAE real estate market?
If Tamweel, the Islamic home mortgage company, figures are to be relied on then 90 per cent of home buyers in the UAE are end-users.
The Dubai Financial Market-listed company’s findings are based on analysis of home finance extended by it between January 2011 and June 2012.
Although average finance-to-value ratio stood at 80 per cent in 2008, Tamweel says the ratio currently stands at 75 per cent, indicating end-users are seeking to keep their leveraging to minimum.
“The past 18 months have witnessed a profound shift in the UAE home finance sector,” said Varun Sood, Acting Chief Executive Officer, Tamweel.
“Customers now are very savvy and will have thoroughly done their homework on both the property and the home finance product. Importantly, customers are no longer seeking to over-leverage themselves, and are instead fully prepared for significant equity participation, which is a very healthy characteristic of the UAE home finance sector today.”
However, Complete Limited, a global property firm that manages over 800 properties across 13 global markets, says loan-to-value ratio stood at around 70 per cent across the board, but raised for good cases. In the United States of America, 60 per cent is most likely to be the maximum.
The company claimed that local and international banks were ready to lend to investors from the Middle East who have a “good stable” income, thanks to the region’s perception as “safe haven”.
Chris Allen, Head of Mortgages, Complete Ltd, Dubai, said: “For those investing and hoping for an increase in value over the next few years, fixed rate mortgages are very popular, knowing that the interest rate cannot move for the following five years and that the rental income covers the mortgage is a huge feel good position for most buyers.”
Last week, Emirates 24/7 reported that increasing mortgage availability and low interest rates are boosting sale of completed units in Dubai.
“Buying homes in UAE may just have gotten more easier. Since early this year several top banks have cut interest rates in a bid to attract the real estate mortgage loans and that has had a positive impact on the Dubai real estate market,” Juma Ahmed Majid Al Ghurair, Managing Director of Al Manal Development, had told this website.
Property transactions jumped 21 per cent to Dh63 billion in the first half of 2012 compared to the same period last year in Dubai.
However, in 2011, the Dubai Land Department reported transactions worth Dh143 billion, with 60 per cent of the total transactions done through mortgage. It said this indicates the “recovery of the property financing and the return of healthy activities.”
An NCB Capital report has revealed that the mortgage markets in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council remains extremely underdeveloped by global standards.
In the UAE, it was only four per cent in 2005, but is estimated to have surged to around 14 per cent in 2009, while Kuwait and Qatar stood at around 14 and nine per cent, respectively. In Saudi Arabia, it is only around one to three per cent, while in Bahrain it is estimated at 4.5 per cent.
Southwest Florida real estate recovery strengthens | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate
Whether analyzing market statistics or speaking directly to those professionals “in the trenches” in the real estate industry, opinions of the state of our market vary — often substantially. Yet, regardless of what gauge one uses to assess the current state of our market, one thing is clear — we are on the upside of recovery. Both notable shifts in forward-looking indicators, and overall outlook from prudent real estate investors, point to very positive signs of improvement.
In Florida, and particularly here in Southwest Florida, the industrial sector of the commercial real estate market is leading the pack with newly released data showing a top-three placement for lowest industrial vacancy rates in the nation. According to a recent Cushman and Wakefield market statistical report, the Naples metro area ranked No. 2 in the nation for the lowest industrial vacancy rates with 4.2 percent overall vacancy. Moreover, Florida claimed three of the top 10 metro areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates (Lakeland at No. 1, Naples at No. 2, and St. Petersburg/Clearwater at No. 7). Lee County ranked 38th on the list with a 9.3 percent vacancy rate — slightly higher than the national average of 8.7 percent vacancy.
Housing market improvements
Improvements in the housing market are widely considered a contributing factor to positive developments in the industrial sector of commercial real estate, not unlike the correlation recognized between growth in employment and positive gains in the office sector. Both nationally and statewide, prices and home sales increased year over year in August. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales jumped 7.8 percent in August to the highest level in more than two years — the highest level since May of 2010 when sales were fueled by a federal home-buying tax credit.
While many argue that Southwest Florida lags both the nation and the state with respect to spikes in housing figures, a direct comparison does not always reveal the entire picture. It is true similar spikes were not prevalent in Southwest Florida’s data, yet, when placed in proper context factoring in dwindling inventory numbers and the area’s position in the recovery cycle, important strides were unquestionably made in our local market.
Realtors fault low appraisals for sluggish housing market | Bedford Hills NY Homes
When Justin Olson put his Southwest-style ranch house outside Phoenix on the market, he got what he was expecting: an immediate batch of offers, virtually all above his asking price, which was set intentionally low to attract interest at $197,500. He chose an offer of $210,000.
But then came an unpleasant surprise. An appraiser for the buyer’s bank said the house was worth only $195,000. That limited the amount that the bank would lend, forcing the buyer to come up with more cash or negotiate a lower price.
“There was just no way I was selling that house for less than $200,000,” Olson said. His broker, Brett Barry of Homesmart, advised him that there was little chance of changing the appraiser’s mind. Olson said, “The part that blows me away — the appraisal can be such an arbitrary, personal decision and there is no appeals process.”
Adding to his indignation, a similar house two doors away was appraised and sold for $225,000.
Appraisals are generally ordered by banks so they can verify the value of collateral before granting a mortgage. Before the housing crash, when home values seemed only to rise, appraisals were almost an afterthought.
But now, with banks far more cautious about lending, a low appraisal can torpedo a deal.
The problem is so widespread that this week the National Association of Realtors blamed faulty appraisals for holding back the housing recovery, saying its members had reported that more than a third of all deals were canceled, delayed or renegotiated to a lower price because of a low appraisal. Several real estate agents said they were starting to include appraisal contingencies in their contracts, spelling out how much a buyer would be willing to pay in cash if the appraisal fell short.
Appraisers use previous sales of comparable houses to help value a home. If prices are just starting to climb, and sales take two or three months to close, there can be a lag before the change in prices is observed.
The Realtors report said appraisers were improperly using foreclosures and neglected properties as comparable homes, failing to account for market conditions like scarce inventory and bidding wars, and working in areas where they lack local expertise. The report faulted banks for using inexperienced appraisers and for creating unrealistic requirements, like six comparable sales instead of three, at a time of few sales.
“It’s holding sellers off the market,” said Jed Smith, the managing director of quantitative research for the Realtors group. “Sales volume could probably be an additional 10 to 15 percent higher if we had normal lending practices and if we had normal appraisal practices.” That in turn, he said, would create more jobs.
Appraisers and real estate brokers agreed that a ban, imposed since the housing crash, on loan originators’ handpicking appraisers had led to the use of appraisal management companies that take a healthy cut of the consumer’s fee and hire inexperienced, low-cost appraisers.
But appraisers took issue with the complaints and pointed out that unlike real estate agents, they have no bias or incentive to help complete a deal.
“Appraisers don’t set the market; they reflect what’s happening in the market,” said Ken Chitester, a spokesman for the Appraisal Institute, a professional association. “So don’t shoot the messenger. Blaming the appraiser for a bad housing market is like blaming the weatherman because you don’t like the weather.”
Olson and his buyer compromised on a price of $205,000, less than initially offered and therefore, some might say, less than the house was worth.
But any transaction involving a mortgage is limited by the appraisal — an assessment that is part science, part art and is based on a variety of factors like location and square footage.
Though Olson’s house was in good condition, the house nearby that sold for more had at least $30,000 worth of upgrades, said Craig Young, the broker who represented the seller. But Young said appraisals could still be unpredictable, pointing out that a home across the street sold for even more, $239,000.
Some appraisers said agents misunderstand the way homes are valued. For example, although bank-owned homes generally sell at a discount, that is not true in every neighborhood, said Dan McKinnon, who runs an appraisal company with his wife in Phoenix. Appraisers, therefore, do not automatically make adjustments if they are using such sales for comparison. Some bank-owned homes are in good condition, and in some neighborhoods bank-owned sales dominate the market and thus determine prices.
“If that property is in similar condition to your subject, it is direct competition,” McKinnon said.
Communication Breakdown | Bedford Hills NY Real Estate
REDUNDANT MECHANISMS that fail to communicate with one another can make using Mac OS X Lion more confusing than it should be.
Consider the screenshot shown here. While Apple’s Software Update knows that I have downloaded the latest version of iPhoto (“Your software is up to date”), Apple’s App Store, pulling from a different database, does not know that I have already installed iPhoto. It only knows that a new version is available.
Because the App Store’s left hand doesn’t know what Software Update’s right hand has already downloaded and installed, the App Store flashes a red download alert badge, urging me to download 500MB of Apple software that Apple’s OS has already installed on my Apple machine.
Suppose I don’t bother to check Software Update and verify that the App Store’s “Update” tab is urging me to take a nonsensical action. Suppose I actually go ahead and click “UPDATE” in the App Store’s “Update” tab. What will happen?
The software, all 500 MB of it, will download again, and install itself again. That’s what will happen.
And the cream of the jest? After installing the software again, if I click into the “Purchases” tab of the App Store, the “Purchases” tab will inform me that an iPhoto update is available, and urge me to install it. And if I have been huffing nitrous all day and take Apple’s advice, the 500 MB package will download for a third time and install itself a third time.
And you thought Retina images were tough on bandwidth.
(A friend tells me that Mountain Lion resolves this clustercuss by removing Software Update from the equation. I suspect that those of us still using Lion are receiving unintended anal leakage from UI decisions that make sense in Mountain Lion but are idiotic in Lion. Click





