Daily Archives: March 23, 2012

North Salem NY Real Estate by robert paul | Consumers Warm up Early Spring Surveys

The weatherman is not the only source of spring-like forecasts this week. Two national surveys released today found that consumers are feeling better about the real estate picture for the first time in months.

Fannie Mae’s February National Housing Survey found that Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next 12 months, which is down slightly from last month, but 28 percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, while 15 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down 1 percentage point since last month). Fifty-three percent say prices will stay the same.

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell rose by 3 percentage points to 13 percent, the highest level in over a year, while the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy dropped 1 percentage point to 70 percent this month. Sixty-five percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up 1 percentage point since last month, while 29 percent say they would rent, down 1 percentage point versus last month.

On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 3.5 percent over the next 12 months, a slight increase since January.

Forty-five percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, a 2 percentage point increase from last month, while 3 percent expect them to go down, a 2 percentage point decrease from last month and the lowest value in over a year.

Americans’ concerns about key economic and housing issues are beginning to subside, according to results from. Consumers’ attitudes have stabilized across most indicators – including personal finances, housing, and employment – demonstrating their sense that downside risks have abated somewhat compared to late summer and fall of 2011. While Americans’ confidence in the direction of the economy has been the most pronounced (35 percent think that the economy is on the right track, up 19 percentage points since November, and 57 percent think the economy is on the wrong track, down 18 percentage points since November), their confidence about personal financial situations, household income, and household expenses, as well as attitudes about homeownership and renting is holding at steady levels. At the same time, Americans’ concern about losing their job in the next 12 months has stabilized since the late fall, with 76 percent of Americans saying they are not concerned in February 2012, compared to 70 percent in November 2011.

“The pickup in the pace of hiring over the past few months has helped soothe consumer concerns, lifting their moods regarding their personal finances, the direction of the economy, and their views on the housing market,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “As a result, we’ve seen more potential for economic upside, creating a more balanced near-term outlook.”

An even brighter picture was painted by the fourth annual Cotton Report from Cotton & Company, a Stuart, FL real estate marketing company.

The Cotton Report found that 46 percent of respondents and 53 percent of those with household incomes over $100,000 believe we have reached the bottom of the market. Fifty-four percent of prospective buyers are considering primary residences as opposed to vacation homes or investment properties, an increase from 38 percent a year ago.

“For those who have been waiting to make their move, trying to time the bottom of the market, they may have already missed it,” said Stephann Cotton, President and Founder of Cotton & Company. “2011 saw rapid absorption of distressed inventory in major markets like Miami and San Diego. The Cotton Report’s market data supports this growing perception, with a steady reduction in the number of investors actively in the market and fewer buyers expecting for further price reductions.”

Andrew Cuomo’s Albany is America’s Foreclosure Congestion Capital | Mount Kisco NY Real Estate

For six years the so-called “Sand States”-Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada-have absorbed the lion’s share of punishment from foreclosures. But as many of those markets stabilize, the foreclosure plague is moving north and east and a major cause is the congestion of the region’s foreclosure processing.

The Northeast region has the fewest markets of any region among CoreLogic’s top 50 but six of the bottom 20 least improved markets in terms of prices, sales and declining, according to CoreLogic’s MarketPulse newsletter. The common denominator among all six is that they are in judicial states that are prone to foreclosure congestion.

“While there are exceptions to the rule, there is a strong correlation between foreclosure pipeline congestion and market improvement,” wrote CoreLogic economist Sam Khater.

Albany, ranked 77th in the nation overall by CoreLogic, is the most congested market in the nation with an average of 66 properties in the process of foreclosure for every single foreclosure that is on the market (REO). Every one of the 10 top most congested markets in the nation ranked in the bottom half of CoreLogic’s most improved ranking.

State foreclosure laws have a great deal to do with foreclosure congestion and improved market metrics. Nine of the 20 least improved markets all in judicial states while 8 of the 10 most improved markets are not. The two most improved markets in the country, Detroit and Denver, are among the least congested pipeline markets.

Stability is emerging in a broad-based manner, Khater suggests, but the Northeast is lagging other markets in recovery, in part due to congested foreclosure pipelines. CoreLogic analyses market health based on supply of serious delinquencies, pace of sales as well as percent change in prices.

Experts Sour on 2012 | South Salem NY Real Estate

As the spring buying season begins, some real estate gurus are getting cold feet about prices despite reports of record low inventories and consistent increases in sales.

A quarterly survey of 104 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists found price optimism fading as the consensus that home prices this year lose 0.7 percent, which is more negative than their December prediction of a 0.2 percent price decline.

However, the experts still expect U.S. home prices to begin to rise in 2013, but not by as much as they expected in the December. They now predict home prices will rise 1.4 percent in 2013, compared to their previous prediction of 1.8 percent.

The expert panel’s conservatism might reflect the downturn in prices late last year or concern with the shadow inventory of foreclosures to be released on local markets by the signing of the multi-state AG settlement.

It also might reflect the experts’ less than sterling track record in recent years.  The survey has been famously and consistently wrong, which is a function either of the volatility of the markets or the futility of making predictions in these tough times-or perhaps both.

For example, last June, with just six months left in the year, a majority of the experts in the survey said home prices would still bottom in 2011. At the same time, most of the survey respondents expected home prices to grow at an abysmal 2 percent per year rate until 2015.  Instead, three months later the Case-Shiller price index fell to its lowest level since 2002 the fourth quarter.

A year ago last December, only 15 percent of the surveyed experts projected a double dip in home prices, which in fact occurred within the next quarter.  But the biggest boo-boo by far was the May, 2010 survey which found, to quote its news release:

“According to a new monthly survey, the onset of price recovery in U.S. single family real estate is widely expected by 2011, and home prices will increase by more than 12.4 percent between 2010 and the end of 2014. The survey also revealed that home prices nationwide are expected to have risen 4.9 percent in the 12-month period ended March 2010, but fallen 0.4 percent during the most recent quarterly period measured.”

The release continued:  “The survey results are important because they represent a consensus view among experts with rich and diverse knowledge. In the May survey they see only the slightest hint of a downdraft in home prices this year, and after that a respectable uptrend in prices, well ahead of the likely inflation rate,” said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and Chief Economist. “However, there were a number of panelists more or less sanguine than average, some significantly so, and this reflects continuing volatility and risk in the U.S. housing market. The expectations within this first survey were provided following the end of the homebuyer tax credit and of the Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed securities purchase program. It will be interesting to see how panelist views evolve in future months.”

Get More Comments: How Honesty Compels Readers to Comment | Waccabuc Realtor

Hi Darren,

Honesty is the only policy, if you plan to really prosper. Be honest. This builds trust. More trust = more readers = more comments, too. Readers comment if they feel compelled to comment, if they feel it’s worth their time. Being honest and truthful in your blogging activities causes folks to believe that yep, your blog is worth the time.

Keen note too: all your top commenting posts include numbers, save one. Stating honest claims resonates strongly with readers. Numbers pull us in and an honest breakdown of how you achieved these goals and how it can help us makes readers want to chime in.

As for Jon’s post, brutal honesty does quite well too. One thing to tell the truth, another thing to lay it all out there, and the dude does it each time he writes. Really well. The vibe resonates with most folks, especially straight shooters, and on a deeper level just about all are straight shooters.

Pitching to your reader’s level is the only way to pitch. Otherwise, they ignore the post all together, or they never comment on it. I keep things uber simple to relate to all who might be reading. We forget at times that people of all experience levels are reading our blogs, even if we target a certain audience. Different folks show up, and to connect with these individuals and encourage commenting, keep it level, and simple. Readers appreciate this and will be happy to share their insight in the comments section.

Add value, become valuable. The pros harp on it for good reason: it rarely goes unappreciated. We seek value, know-how, insight. If a blogger never holds back in the value-adding departing their site holds a special place in our hearts.

Thanks for sharing Darren!

Ryan