NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Home prices are already a third off their highs, but this summer could bring the real discounts.

Buyers are still cautious, and anxious sellers will have to price aggressively to get them off the fence.

That could result in a “summer clearance sale,” predicts Pete Flint, CEO of Trulia, the real estate web site.

“We don’t imagine a stampede of buyers, like outside of Macy’s on Black Friday,” he said. “We see this more akin to January sales where retailers are trying to get rid of stock before it gets stale.”

Several factors, he said, will lead to blow-out prices:

Accelerating price drops: Home prices have already reached their lowest level since the housing bubble burst, and are now at 2002 levels. Sellers will feel the pressure to make deals before their homes lose even more value.

Bloated inventory: There are boatloads of homes on the market, more than eight months worth at the current rate of sales. Many are distressed properties — short sales and bank repossessions. Such homes are selling at discounts up to 50%.

Tight credit: Some homebuyers still can’t obtain mortgages, limiting demand.

Unemployment: While the job picture has brightened, unemployment is still around 9%. People without jobs don’t buy homes, obviously, but high unemployment also rattles working people. Lacking the confidence that their jobs are secure, they may not look to buy.

These forces could all come to a head this summer, according to Flint, because of the cyclical nature of homebuying. Buying takes off in spring as many young families hope to make their moves before the new school year.

“By the end of the homebuying season, sellers will become increasingly desperate,” said Flint.

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