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New York real estate showing symptoms of distress | Waccabuc Real Estate

For Hans Futterman, it was a dream defaulted. 

The developer assembled a vacant plot of land — formerly a Shell gas station and a parking lot — at Frederick Douglass Boulevard and West 122nd Street in Harlem over roughly four years, from 2011 to 2015. He then secured approvals to construct a 12-story, 127-unit residential building on the site, which offers 205,000 buildable square feet.

But in June of last year, Futterman, who declined to comment for this story, defaulted on a $36 million loan from RWN Real Estate Partners, and five months later his development firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The bankruptcy auction is now set for June 21, and sources said the site could sell for as much as $70 million — about $44 million more than Futterman paid for the stretch of land over the years.

A source said Futterman pumped “his life savings” into the project — and that he is still holding out hope to develop it himself.

“This is the reality of the market today,” said Cushman & Wakefield’s Bob Knakal, who is handling the bankruptcy auction with colleague Adam Spies. “Transactions are not going the way owners want.”

Indeed, the first signs of distress have emerged in several pockets of New York City’s commercial real estate market in recent months. Retail vacancies, declining hotel revenues and foreclosures on Park Avenue are among a flurry of indications that the market is inching closer to the brink of financial trouble.    

“There’s a lot more stress in the system than most people probably realize,” said Iron Hound Management’s Robert Verrone, who added that his mortgage brokerage is handling more workouts nationally than ever before. 

The influx of troubled loans is a product of the 2007 lending boom, and $90 billion in commercial mortgage backed-securities backed by properties across the country are set to mature this year. Sean Barrie of Trepp, which tracks CMBS, noted that the massive batch of loans was “underwritten pretty liberally,” and now, many of those sponsors may face difficulty refinancing their over-leveraged assets.

Attorney Ray Hannigan, of Herrick Feinstein, who specializes in foreclosures and workouts, said the tri-state area is already seeing a substantial influx of those maturity defaults.

“It’s a long time coming,” he said. “The market needs to work through this latest cycle and weed out the good and the bad.” 

The bad can be found across the five boroughs. In Brooklyn and Staten Island, scheduled foreclosure auctions are making a comeback. There were 90 foreclosure auctions in Brooklyn in March, a 125 percent year-over-year increase. Staten Island — where the real estate market has been less active — had 32 in the same month, a 10 percent increase from the previous year, according to California-based research firm ATTOM Data Solutions data provided to The Real Deal.

ATTOM data also showed that there was a 327 percent increase in New York City multifamily and retail sales to third-party investors in foreclosure auctions in 2017’s first quarter, year-over year. Similarly, the number of bank-owned commercial properties rose 8 percent year-over-year.

No one is suggesting that distress is widespread — yet. More than 25 lawyers, economists, lenders and brokers who spoke to TRD for this story were confident that although a decline is around the corner, it won’t be as severe as it was 2007 or 2008 — when, as attorney Wallace Schwartz of the national law firm Kasowitz put it, “everything fell off the table.”

“Distress is a very macro word,” said Ayush Kapahi of capital advisory firm HKS Capital Partners. “There’s something churning. I don’t know if the word ‘distress’ will apply, or if it will just be a market reset.… There are so many variables that go into a storm.”

To get a better idea of the extent of the trouble in the market, TRD took a temperature check of all the commercial real estate asset classes across the city.

Retail anxieties

When real estate developer Billy Macklowe proclaimed, “I think retail is fucked, plain and simple,” in late April, he was echoing a sentiment widely shared among industry insiders: Of all commercial real estate asset classes, retail is showing the clearest signs of distress.

“Retail is a disaster in New York City,” one source said on the condition of anonymity. While part of that situation is due to the continual rise of online retailers, “another part of it is people are too greedy,” the source added in reference to landlords seeking steep rents.

Indeed, brick-and-mortar stores across the country are collapsing due to high overhead, weak sales and mounting debt, and major U.S. retailers including American Apparel and Aeropostale, among many others, have filed for bankruptcy.

Some retailers are making real estate moves to stay afloat amid falling sales. Department store Lord & Taylor is considering adding a residential tower on top of its flagship at 424 Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus recently met with Related Companies about a potential merger — a deal that Related chair Stephen Ross later said would not happen.

No major retail landlords in the city have defaulted on their loans because of the waning market, but many are seeing increased vacancies. Last year, availability rates on Fifth Avenue between 42nd and 49th streets hit a high of 31 percent, Cushman data show. All in all, eight of Manhattan’s 11 major retail neighborhoods saw availability rates grow between 0.6 and 8.2 percent, according to the commercial brokerage.

“Look anywhere in the city and you see unusually high vacancy,” said real estate attorney Joshua Stein. To be sure, there is more leasing activity taking place on less-glamorous stretches like Ninth Avenue (see related story).

Most recently, Ralph Lauren announced it would be closing its 39,000 square-foot flagship store at the Coca-Cola
Company’s 711 Fifth Avenue. The retailer will continue to pay a whopping $70,000 per day in rent as part of the lease, which expires in 2029, if it can’t get out of the arrangement.

And as leasing volume slows, landlords are wooing new tenants by offering  concessions, including cheaper rents, build-outs and more flexible deal terms.

If any major retail landlord is approaching trouble, it could be Thor Equities’ TRData LogoTINY Joseph Sitt (see related story), whose portfolio has retail vacancies, including nearly 27,000 square feet of vacancies at 530 Fifth, which the firm co-owns with General Growth Properties.

And Sitt certainly isn’t alone.

Jack Terzi’s JTRE Holdings, for example, has reportedly been in contract for nearly a year to pay about $140 million for a vacant six-story retail building at 23 Wall Street. Sources said that over that time, Terzi has had difficulty locking in financing and securing a flagship tenant, though Uniqlo is among the prospective retailers that have negotiated for space there.

Of the $7.53 billion in 200 CMBS notes backed by retail properties in New York City, five, totaling $77 million, are with a special servicer, according to Trepp.

“Retail dynamics and challenges are certainly not unique to New York,” said Sam Chandan, an economist and associate dean at New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate. “New York has a very unique retail footprint by virtue of it being a dense tourist market and one where most retail is ground floor or street-facing. There will be some difficult adjustments.”

Hotel oversupply 

The hotel industry is also facing an uphill battle to absorb oversupply in the city and combat online home-sharing marketplace Airbnb.  

“The industry’s struggle is really playing out in the room rates, which have declined and are expected to continue to do so,” said Peter Muoio, chief economist and head of research at online real estate marketplace Ten-X. 

Revenue per available room fell to $163 during the first three months of this year — its lowest level of the current cycle and a 2.3 percent drop year-over-year, according to a recent report from hotel-and-data analytics firm STR. 

Transactions are also down, as New York City saw $2 billion in hotel deals in 2016, a sizable drop from $4.8 billion the prior year, according to STR. The 2015 figure, it should be noted, included the blockbuster $1.95 billion sale of the Waldorf Astoria to Anbang Insurance Group. Many of the 2016 deals were for “upper midscale” or “upscale” properties, unlike 2015 when most hotels that sold were “luxury” or “upper upscale,” according to the data firm’s report.

Sources said that so far, hotel owners have been able to largely escape trouble with a “big paydown” through a recapitalization or a sale, but the few hotels that were sold in the last two years have done so at a loss. Thor has been in contract since the fall to purchase PGIM Real Estate’s five-star James New York hotel in Soho for $70 million — a $13 million drop from the property’s previous sale price of $83.4 million in 2013.

While some hotels are simply depreciating in value, at least one is facing foreclosure. The four-star, boutique Mansfield Hotel at 12 West 44th  Street in Midtown has been hemorrhaging cash for more than a year as the owner, Ark Partners, has struggled to sell for $65 million.

Court records show Wells Fargo, the trustee on the hotel’s $20 million loan, is working through foreclosure proceedings with the developers.

A wide range of Manhattan hotels are on the market, though very few have been able to find a buyer quickly. The properties on the hunt include the Park Lane Hotel, the Quin, the Standard High Line and Hotel Wales.

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https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/distressed-out/?utm_source=The+Real+Deal+E-Lerts&utm_campaign=ddb3f210e9-New_York_Weekend_Update_10.18.2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6e806bb87a-ddb3f210e9-385733629

Mortgage rates fall again | Waccabuc Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping for the fourth consecutive week and hitting its lowest level in nearly seven months.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending June 8, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 3.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.60 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.19 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.87 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.11 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.82 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points this week. The 30-year mortgage rate moved in tandem with Treasury yields, falling 5 basis points to 3.89 percent. Mixed economic data and increasing uncertainty are continuing to push rates to the lowest levels in nearly seven months.”

Expats living in Cotacachi Ecuador | Waccabuc Real Estate

Cotacachi, in the Imbabura province, is getting the lion’s share of expat attention these days. Many, especially those of retirement age, are finding their way here to enjoy the perfect weather, beautiful scenery, low cost of living, and especially the tranquil, slow-paced small-town lifestyle.

Like Otavalo and many other villages in this part of Ecuador, Cotacachi (population: about 8,000) is an artisan town. Just 20 minutes northwest of Otavalo, Cotacachi is Ecuador’s famous “leather” town. Artisan shops line the main street and you can buy any type of leather item, from shoes, boots and jackets to coin purses, bags, and suitcases…even upholstered furniture. Prices for all these items are 50% to 75% less than you would pay in the U.S.

Cotacachi has always enjoyed a reputation as a clean, peaceful village, and its plazas are kept neat and tidy. At night the artisan shops close up and only a few restaurants and small mom-and-pop shops are open. On the corners, you may find families congregating around a hot grill, where ears of corn are roasting along with pork and chicken kabobs. The cool, crisp air smells faintly of wood smoke, roasting corn, and eucalyptus. Eucalyptus trees grow abundantly wild, as do palm trees.

Cotacachi has become one of Ecuador’s most active expat communities in recent years, as many foreigners have chosen to locate here—and they enjoy a great lifestyle in Cotacachi. It’s a small, mostly indigenous town with a strong sense of community.

Largely dependent on agriculture, it is the sort of town many of us remember from our childhoods. Fresh raw milk can be bought from local farms, along with eggs laid by free-range chickens. Children still help with the family businesses after school and are well-mannered.

In the quaint downtown, you’ll find a couple of barbers, a small health clinic, and a pavilion for the town band. Ethnic restaurants and cozy cafés make welcoming spots to catch up with friends or just sit and watch life unfold in the Ecuadorian highlands.

Though Cotacachi has a slow and relaxed pace there are constant events and activities to take part in. Every month at least one parade or festival takes place. There are live music events, dances, and even horse processions to be watched and photographed. Seed exchanges, food fairs, and leather expos are all annual events too.

Of course it’s always nice to explore other areas too and there are plenty of great day-trips to choose from. Within two hours you could be at Chachimbiro Hot Springs relaxing in the thermal springs, or enjoying a mud bath at the spa. Lake Cuicocha is just a 15-minute taxi ride from town where you can marvel at the deep blue volcanic crater lake. If you’re up for some physical activity you can take a four-hour hike around the rim, or if you prefer to relax, take the boat tour around the islands in the center of the lake.

The famed market town of Otavalo is nearby, where you can explore the streets filled with craft items, food, and even animals for sale. Ibarra is a larger city just 45 minutes away with shopping malls, dining options, and large parks and plazas to enjoy.

When the sun sets in Cotacachi, the artisan shops close up and only a few restaurants and small mom-and-pop shops are open. That’s all you need, really. After a day of sunshine in the 8,000-foot-elevation, mountain climate, night-time is for sleeping.

Retire in Cotacachi, Ecuador

Retire in CotacachiCotacachi is becoming something of an expat magnet. Estimates are that about 100 expats live full-time in Cotacachi now. It’s a diverse group—not all American. There are Israelis, Cubans, Brits, and more among them, who get together regularly to discuss topics of interest or just to celebrate life. This makes retirement in Cotacachi enjoyable. The expats here are outgoing and relaxed, since there’s not much to worry about. No traffic, no temperature swings, no pesky insects, and certainly no money problems.

The town is also scenic. Two of the most majestic cordilleras of the Andes flank either side of the small village of Cotacachi. And several of Ecuador’s most famous volcanoes can be seen from just about anywhere in town, including Volcan Cotacachi to the west and Imbabura to the east. On a clear day, you can see Volcan Pichincha to the south.

If you want to enjoy good weather, clean air, great scenery, and a rich indigenous culture, but still be within two hours of the international airport in Quito, then retirement in Cotacachi could fit the bill.

Lifestyle in Cotacachi, Ecuador

Lifestyle In CotacachiCotacachi is a fabulous place to improve your health. The moderate climate with little variation throughout the year means that nearly every fruit and vegetable can be grown within a hundred miles. Not only is healthy produce readily available, but it’s also very affordable. With avocados priced at 3 for a dollar, organic leaf lettuce at 25 cents, and 6 plump carrots for 50 cents there is no monetary reason not to eat right.

In addition, the small size of the town makes it perfect for walking. Instead of jumping in your car to run to the grocery store, pay bills, or meet a friend for lunch you can easily accomplish it all with your own two feet. Many folks find that they lose weight without even trying after being in Cotacachi for only a few months. The healthy food choices and extra walking each day help shed excess pounds.

For a small town there are few things lacking. Residents can take advantage of spas, fitness centers, and basic medical needs all within a few blocks of each other. They can also participate in art classes, hiking groups, dance lessons, live musical events, yoga, foreign films, and science courses.

If you’re a social person, Cotacachi is the place for you. There are plenty of other expats to get to know, but the locals are friendly and welcoming too. It’s tough to spend much time in this town without quickly and easily making friends.

Real Estate in Cotacachi, Ecuador

Real Estate in CotacachiThis influx of foreigners has caused something of a building boom in Cotacachi in recent years, and if you come to look for real estate, you’ll be spoiled for choice. Older homes and apartments in need of renovation can be had for the price of a good used car.

Recognizing the trend of foreign baby boomers looking for an unspoiled and inexpensive retirement destination, local builders offer appealing homes and condos with features like large modern kitchens, elegant bathrooms, fireplaces, and more.

Rentals go for as little as $150 a month for a modern, three-bedroom apartment while furnished units with all utilities included go for $600.

Cost of Living in Cotacachi, Ecuador

Cost of Living in CotacachiThe cost of living is low in Ecuador, but especially so in smaller towns like Cotacachi. If you’re living on a budget or just looking to save money, this is a great place to do so.

Sunday is market day, when the villagers bring their wares to sell. Everything from fruits and vegetables to ground spices, woven baskets, and rope made of woven plastic shopping bags—recycling at its best. And then there are the roses…you pay $2 for one dozen, long-stemmed roses that are so fresh they last nearly three weeks.

On Saturdays head to Otavalo—to the largest open-air indigenous market in South America. If you’re a good negotiator, you can buy scarves, woolen socks, and hats for $2 each, or pretty wool and alpaca sweaters for $8 ($4 for kids’ sizes). The 30-minute bus ride from Cotacachi to Otavalo costs 35 cents; a taxi costs $5.

You can hire a maid to clean your condo for $10, and gardeners or landscapers charge around $4 per hour. Furnishing that same condo can be fun and inexpensive as well. There are master carpenters right in town that will build furniture to your specs for 50% to 75% of U.S. costs. Artistic paintings, colorful weavings, and wooden carvings are all easily found in the area and are priced at or below half of what you would pay back home.

Unless you must have imported food items or expensive cuts of meat you’ll save on your grocery bill here. Five dollars at the farmers’ market will get you an extra-large grocery bag filled to the brim with good healthy produce. Bananas, pineapples, mangos, avocados, tomatoes, leafy greens, and dozens of varieties of potatoes are just a few things you’ll find for sale. Whole chickens range from $5 to $8 depending on the size while fresh free-range eggs cost around $1.30 per dozen.

Many restaurants in town serve a menu del dia that consists of a beverage, soup, salad, main course, and dessert. How much? $2.50 each. It’s almost cheaper to eat out than to cook at home.

There are several good doctors in Cotacachi who typically charge $10 for an office visit. An eye exam costs $5 while a dental cleaning and exam will run around $20.

With the lack of severe temperature fluxes you’ll find that heating and air conditioning aren’t necessary, saving you plenty of money. Average electric costs for a household run between $15 and $20 per month. Monthly bills for water and propane gas usually come in at around $5 each. A package of cable TV, internet, and landline phone service can be had for around $100 per month.

Many folks live without a vehicle which eliminates fuel, maintenance, and insurance expenses. Bus fare usually averages around $1 per hour of travel time, and taxis are cheap too, charging $5 to nearby Otavalo (20 minute drive) and $12 to Ibarra (40 minute drive).

Depending upon the lifestyle you want a couple can easily live on $1,200 to $1,800 per month here. Of course frequent dining at high-end restaurants and traveling will require more income, but can still be done for far less than what it would cost in many other parts of the world. Don’t forget to factor in extra funds for trips back home, initial moving and visa costs, and for routine medical care.

 

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https://internationalliving.com/countries/ecuador/cotacachi-ecuador/

 

Real state of housing market | Waccabuc Real Estate

On the third day of Mortgage Bankers Association National Secondary Market Conference and Expo in New York City, three economists took the stage to explain their view of the housing market, and their forecast for 2017.

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan and MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni gave their projections over the chance of a recession within the next 12 months.

Becketti emphasized that while the chance of a recession increased, it would need to be driven by a specific event.

“Recessions are event driven, the economy doesn’t just run out of gas and slow down,” Becketti said.

Fratantoni predicted a 15% to 20% chance of a recession over the next 12 months, while Duncan pushed it to a 30% chance. He listed several factors including a peak in consumer credit card usage, auto sales and corporate debt, which could point to a looming recession.

The three economists pointed out that while employment is rising, there are still gaps in the growth.

What we’ve seen has been a polarization of jobs, Becketti said. Jobs have left the mid-skill level and gone to the high-skill level, and low skill jobs have also seen growth. The reason for this shift is that mid-skilled jobs are easier to automate.

But even as jobs polarize, the growth between urban and suburban areas leveled out, becoming more equally distributed between the two areas, Duncan said. However, this leveling out in the location of jobs is creating more problems in the housing market.

“But now urban areas are the most difficult area to build entry-level housing due to cost of land,” he said.

As the year goes on, Fratantoni predicted the market will see two more rate hikes – one in June and one in September, saying the year would finish with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate of 4.5%.

Becketti predicted slightly more, saying the Federal Open Markets Committee could raise rates from two to three times this year, but said the year will end with a 30-year FRM of about 4.4%.

Duncan, who predicted the highest chance of a recession in the next 12 months, agreed the Fed will raise rates twice more this year, however kept it’s rate for the end of 2017 more conservative at 4.2%.

“We’re not convinced that inflationary pressures are enough to make the Fed more aggressive,” he said.

Click to Enlarge

Economic Outlook

(Source: Freddie Mac)

But for now, the housing market continues to boom as home prices hit their previous peak nationally, and even significantly surpassed it in some states.

This map shows the states in relation to their former peak:

Click to Enlarge

Economic Outlook

(Source: MBA)

All three economists were puzzled by the substantial increase in Texas, saying they could only venture to guess that while there is plenty of land to spread out in the state, the jobs are more centered, driving home prices up in key areas, such as Dallas.

And what about the rumored housing bubble? Fratantoni asked: Is San Francisco in a housing bubble? Becketti’s answer, to put it simply, was no. He answered that the city is subject to a tech collapse, but said it will not collapse on account of affordability.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/40020-heres-the-real-state-of-the-housing-market?eid=311691494&bid=1743085

Garages in New Homes: 2015 Data | Waccabuc Real Estate

A majority of new homes that completed construction in 2015 included two-car garages, according to NAHB analysis of Census Bureau Survey of Construction data.

For new single-family completions in 2015, 61% of homes offered a two-car garage. Another 24% of homes possessed a garage large enough to hold three or more cars. Just 6% of newly-built homes had a one-car garage, and only 1% possessed a carport. Another 9% of new homes had no garage or carport.

parking1

Over the last two decades, there has been a shift in parking options. As home size has grown, the share of homes with a three or more car garage has grown as well. In 1992, 11% of homes had a garage for three or more cars. That share rose to a peak of 20% in 2005, before falling to 16% in 2010.

In contrast, the market share of homes with no garage or carport has been on the decline. In 1992, 15% of new single-family homes had no parking facility. That share fell to 8% in 2005, before rising slightly to 13% in 2010.

There are also clear regional differences for parking options in new homes. In the Northeast, no garage or carport is available in 18% of homes, the highest such share. In the West, that is true in only 3% of homes, the lowest Census region. The Midwest had the highest share of three or more car garages, at 42% of new homes. The Northeast had the lowest market share of three-plus car garages, with just 12% homes completed. The Northeast in contrast leads the share in one-car garages, with 16% of completed single-family homes.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/garages-in-new-homes-2015-data/

#Mortgage rates down slightly | Waccabuc Real Estate

Like the rest of us suffering through August’s oppressive heat, mortgage rates have been disinclined to move much.

There just hasn’t been enough positive or negative economic data recently to have an effect on rates. Even the Federal Reserve minutes, which were released Wednesday, provided no clear signal. They showed the central bank remains divided on when to raise interest rates again.

Without much guidance, home loan rates have been listless. Since late June, the 30-year fixed-rate average — the most popular mortgage product — has been stuck between a high of 3.48 percent and a low of 3.41 percent.

In its most recent monthly outlook, which was released earlier this week, Freddie Mac projected mortgage rates would remain below 4 percent not only for the rest of this year but also next year. The government-backed mortgage-backer revised its 2017 forecast for the 30-year fixed rate to 3.7 percent.

Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rates trend index, found that three-quarters of the experts it surveyed believe rates will remain relatively unchanged in the next week, moving no more than plus or minus two basis points (a basis point is 0.01 percentage point) in the next week.
According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average slipped to 3.43 percent with an average 0.5 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 3.45 percent a week ago and 3.93 percent a year ago. The 30-year fixed rate has remained below 3.5 percent the past two months.

The 15-year fixed-rate average fell to 2.74 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 2.76 percent a week ago and 3.15 percent a year ago.

The five-year adjustable rate average crept up to 2.76 percent with an average 0.4 point. It was 2.74 percent a week ago and 2.94 percent a year ago.

“For eight consecutive weeks mortgage rates have ranged between 3.41 and 3.48 percent,” Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac chief economist, said in a statement. “Inflation is not adding any upward pressure on interest rates as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index was unchanged in July.”

Meanwhile, mortgage applications were lower this week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — fell 4 percent from the previous week. The refinance index decreased 4 percent, while the purchase index dropped 4 percent.
The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 62.6 percent of all applications.

“Application volume dropped across the board for both refinance and purchase loans last week, despite little change in rates,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA chief economist. “Refinance volume continues to tail off its recent highs as markets return to normal post Brexit. As for home purchases, the strong job market and still very low rates continue to support volume almost 10 percent higher than this time last year, despite last week’s dip.”

 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/

Texas real estate market sizzles | Waccabuc Real Estate

1122 Gunter St 78702 East Austin house front 2015

The median home price in Texas grew to $215,000, an all-time high for the state’s housing market. 

The housing market in Texas is as hot as this summer heat. The latest quarterly housing report from Texas Association of Realtors (TAR) shows home sales have continued to increase across the Lone Star State for the hottest season to date.

Looking at the second quarter of 2016, the median home price in Texas grew to $215,000, a 7.5 percent increase from Q2 2015, and an all-time high for the state. In addition, active listings rose by 4.1 percent, while the number of closed sales hit 91,418 (up 4.4 percent) — the highest volume of Texas home sales ever.

“The last few months have been one of the strongest starts to the summer selling season in the history of Texas real estate,” says Leslie Rouda Smith, chairman of the Texas Association of Realtors, in a release.

“Texas homes of all types and price classes are in high demand. This is especially true for homes priced under $200,000, which are often preferred by first-time homebuyers but also in shortest supply across the state.”

Statewide, 45 percent of homes on the market during Q2 were affordably priced at less than $200,000. Forty-seven percent fell in the $200,000-$499,999 range and 8 percent were $500,000 or more.

In the Austin metro area, the median home price increased by 6.6 percent year-over-year, to $286,700. Active listings grew by 5.1 percent and closed sales grew by 8 percent. While these surges are making sellers happy, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for Austinites to find affordable properties.

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http://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/08-02-16-texas-real-estate-report-summer-2016/

Demand for home loans increasing | Waccabuc Real Estate

Even before Brexit hit, mortgage rates were at historical lows, igniting a surge in demand for home equity loans this year.

According to new results from the American Bankers Association’s Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin, consumers are handling the loan responsibility well, with home-related delinquencies down in two out of three categories compared to the previous quarter.

“As the housing market continues its slow and steady recovery, consumers have more valuable equity at stake, which makes their loan payments even more of a top priority,” said James Chessen, ABA’s chief economist.

“Growing equity also makes new home equity loans a viable option for qualified home owners. The market for home equity loans and lines will likely continue to grow as a larger pool of qualified borrowers looks to take advantage of low rates to make property improvements or pay off higher-interest debt,” he continued.

Home equity line delinquencies dropped 3 basis points to 1.15% of all accounts. Meanwhile, home equity loan delinquencies increased 6 basis points to 2.74% of all accounts after falling 23 basis points in the previous quarter.

It’s important to note that the first quarter marks the first time since 2008 that both home equity loan and line delinquencies are at or below their 15-year averages.

As far as the third category, property improvement loan delinquencies fell 3 basis points to 0.89% of all accounts.

For background, Bankrate explains that there are two types of home equity loans: term, or closed-end loans, and lines of credit.

A home equity loan comes in one-time lump sum that is paid off over a set amount of time, with a fixed interest rate and the same payments each month.

On the other hand, a HELOC is more comparable to a credit card.

At the start of this year, Black Knight reported that HELOCs started to surge in 2015 and was only predicted to maintain its upward trajectory into 2016.

At the time, Black Knight Data and Analytics Senior Vice President Ben Graboske said, “In total, we’re looking at over 37 million borrowers with current CLTVs below 80% that have an average of $112,000 equity available to tap in their homes, an increase of 3.1 million from just a year ago.”

The growing potential of borrowers who could capitalize on low interest rates paired with lenders trying to find new sources of business created a new surge in home equity loans.

After the financial crisis, home equity lines of credit fell to the wayside as lenders scaled back on giving out second liens and many cut existing credit lines to avoid new defaults, an article in The Wall Street Journal by Annamaria Andriotis said.

But this all started to change due to increasing property values, the growing number of homeowners who have equity available for withdrawal and lenders needing to offset faltering mortgage originations.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37470-aba-heres-proof-rising-home-equity-levels-are-good-for-consumers?eid=311691494&bid=1454682

Used home sales | Waccabuc Real Estate

Existing Home Sales in the United States is expected to be 5569.18 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Existing Home Sales in the United States to stand at 5438.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Existing Home Sales is projected to trend around 5182.05 Thousand in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Existing Home Sales

 

Forecast Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020 Unit
Existing Home Sales 5530 5569 5472 5453 5439 5182 Thousand
United States Existing Home Sales Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Existing Home Sales using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States Existing Home Sales – was last predicted on Wednesday, June 22, 2016.
United States Housing Last Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Building Permits 1138 1140 1152 1161 1171 1250
Housing Starts 1164 1164 1175 1184 1193 1213
New Home Sales 619 531 475 517 510 590
Pending Home Sales 4.6 3.38 2.9 2.3 1.99 1.42
Existing Home Sales 5530 5569 5472 5453 5439 5182
Construction Spending -1.8 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.9
Housing Index 0.2 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.4 0.31
Nahb Housing Market Index 60 58 59.79 59.1 58.6 53.76
Mortgage Rate 3.76 4.9 5.1 3.85 3.9 6.5
Mortgage Applications 2.9 0.02 0.49 0.5 0.5 0.5
Home Ownership Rate 63.5 63.52 63.53 63.53 63.53 63.53
Case Shiller Home Price Index 184 192 195 196 196 174

Douglas Elliman lead broker in Manhattan | Waccabuc Real Estate

New York brokers love to win, and only the most talented and dedicated hustlers thrive. The firms that employ them are no different, fighting borough-by-borough, neighborhood-by-neighborhood, building-by-building and unit-by-unit in hopes of locking down as many of the listings as possible, and crushing their competition.

The Real Deal compared top brokerages citywide in its May issue, but those results tell only part of story. To get the view from the trenches, TRD drove into active sales listing data — both resales and new development — from On-Line Residential to determine which brokerages were winning which Manhattan neighborhoods.

Douglas Elliman, by far the city’s largest brokerage with over 2,000 agents in Manhattan, fully topped the charts in six of the seven neighborhoods TRD analyzed (those with the largest number of total sales listings). It dominated some – for example Tribeca, where it had a striking 42 percent market share – but just squeaked by in others, such as the Upper East Side, where it beat rival Corcoran Group / Corcoran Sunshine by just five listings of a total 1,150, or about 0.3 percent of the submarket.

The two Corcoran firms, with a combined 1,100 agents in Manhattan — had a strong showing on the Upper West Side – the second largest neighborhood by listings, with 601 – where it had a solid 24 percent market share on 146 total listings, compared to a 17 percent share on 103 listings for Elliman.

brokerages by nabe

Elsewhere though, the Corcoran brokerages were mostly forced to settle for second place. Only in Hell’s Kitchen did a third firm break into the top two slots. River to River Realty, which is based in the neighborhood, had 47 listings, or 19 percent of the submarket.

Still, the firm put up a stiff challenge to Elliman overall, considering its far lower agent count. Corcoran – which does more new development business than its rival, and also has a stronger presence in Brooklyn – also performed better in neighborhoods with more total listings, while Elliman dominated less active areas.

The competition for third place highlighted a more diverse set of players, with seven different firms appearing in each of the seven third place slots. Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property showed in the largest two neighborhoods by listings, the Upper East and Upper West Sides, with market shares of 12 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

 

read more…

 

http://therealdeal.com/2016/05/12/which-resi-brokerage-rules-which-manhattan-neighborhood/