Tag Archives: Waccabuc Homes for Sale

U.S homebuilding rose in October | Waccabuc Real Estate

U.S. homebuilding rose in October amid a rebound in multi-family housing projects, but construction of single-family homes fell for a second straight month, suggesting the housing market remained mired in weakness as mortgage rates march higher.

Other details of the report published by the Commerce Department on Tuesday were also soft. Building permits declined last month and homebuilding completions were the fewest in a year. Housing starts increased 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.228 million units last month.

Data for September was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 1.210 million units instead of the previously reported pace of 1.201 million units.

Building permits slipped 0.6 percent to a rate of 1.263 million units in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a pace of 1.225 million units last month.

The housing market is being hobbled by rising borrowing costs as well as land and labor shortages, which have led to tight inventories and higher house prices. This is making home buying unaffordable for many workers as wage growth has lagged.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering at a seven-year high of 4.94 percent, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. Wages rose 3.1 percent in October from a year ago, trailing house price inflation of about 5.5 percent.

Residential investment contracted in the first nine months of the year and housing is likely to remain a drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter. Economists expect housing activity to remain weak through the first half of 2019.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by Tuesday’s housing starts data.

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME BUILDING FALLS

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, dropped 1.8 percent to a rate of 865,000 units in October after declining in September.

Single-family homebuilding has lost momentum since hitting a pace of 948,000 units last November, which was the strongest in more than 10 years.

A survey on Monday showed confidence among single-family homebuilders dropped to a more than two-year low in November, with builders reporting that “customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices.”

Single-family starts in the South, which accounts for the bulk of homebuilding, fell 4.0 percent last month. Single-family homebuilding jumped 14.8 percent in the Northeast and fell 2.0 percent in the West. Groundbreaking activity on single-family homes dropped 1.6 percent in the Midwest.

Permits to build single-family homes fell 0.6 percent in October to a pace of 849,000 units. These permits remain below the level of single-family starts, suggesting limited scope for a strong pickup in homebuilding.

Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment surged 10.3 percent to a rate of 363,000 units in October. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes fell 0.5 percent to a pace of 414,000 units.

Tuesday’s data also suggested that housing supply is likely to remain tight in the near term. Homebuilding completions in October fell 3.3 percent to a rate of 1.111 million units, the lowest level since September 2017.

Apple gives stocks the holiday blues

Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap.

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U.S. Housing Starts Rise as Apartment Groundbreaking Gains | Newsmax.com

U.S. wages rise the most in a decade | Waccabuc Real Estate

  • Wages and salaries rose 3.1 percent in the third quarter, the biggest increase in a decade, according to the Labor Department.
  • Overall compensation costs were up 2.8 percent, ahead of Wall Street expectations.
  • Wages have been the missing piece in the economic recovery, though the Fed has been raising rates to guard against future inflationary pressures.

Higher wages are very good for real estate

Employment costs rose more than expected in the third quarter in a sign that more inflation could be brewing in the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department’s employment cost index rose 0.8 percent for the period, ahead of the estimate of 0.7 percent from economists surveyed by Refinitiv.

Wages and salaries rose 0.9 percent, well ahead of expectations for 0.5 percent. Benefit costs were up 0.4 percent.

On a yearly basis, wages and salaries jumped 3.1 percent, the biggest increase in 10 years.

Wage increases have been the missing link in the economy since the recovery began in mid-2008. Average hourly earnings have been rising steadily but have stayed below the 3 percent level as slack has remained in the labor market.

However the unemployment rate is now at 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969, and wage pressures have begun to build. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an effort to stave off future inflationary pressures, though the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation rose just 2.5 percent in the third quarter, including a 1.9 percent increase for health benefits.

The wage data came the same day that ADP and Moody’s reported private payroll growth of 227,000 in October, easily beating Wall Street expectations. The combination of news sent Treasury yields higher in morning trading.

Overall compensation costs for civilian workers rose 2.8 percent, tamped down in part by the small rise in benefit costs, which rose 1.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in September. Employers have been looking for non-salary measures to retain workers, but may have to start increasing wages to attract and retain talent.

In addition to the tighter job market, various states, communities and private companies have passed minimum wage increases, adding to inflation pressures.

At an occupational level, compensation costs increased 4.8 percent for information technology and 3.5 percent for sales and office and service occupations.

State and local government compensation costs rose just 2.5 percent, just one-tenth of a point more than the increase for the same period a year ago.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/wages-and-salaries-jump-by-3point1percent-highest-level-in-a-decade.html

Southern California suffers its worst housing slump in over a decade | Waccabuc Real Estate

  • The number of new and existing houses and condominiums sold during the month plummeted nearly 18 percent compared with September 2017, according to CoreLogic.
  • That was the slowest September pace since 2007, when the national housing and mortgage crisis was hitting.
  • The median price of Southern California homes sold in September, $505,000, was still 3.6 percent higher than it was a year ago. That was the lowest annual gain for any month in more than three years.

GP: California real estate for sale Pasadena. 

A property for sale in Arcadia, California.Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

Higher mortgage rates and overheated home prices hit Southern California home sales hard in September.

The number of new and existing houses and condominiums sold during the month plummeted nearly 18 percent compared with September 2017, according to CoreLogic. That was the slowest September pace since 2007, when the national housing and mortgage crisis was hitting.

Sales have been falling on an annual basis for much of this year, but this was the biggest annual drop for any month in almost eight years. It was also more than twice the annual drop seen in August.

“The double whammy of higher prices and rising mortgage rates has priced out some would-be buyers and prompted others to take a wait-and-see stance,” said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst, in the release. “There was one caveat to last month’s sharp annual sales decline — this September had one less business day for recording transactions. Adjusting for that, the year-over-year decline would be about 13 percent, still the largest in four years.”

On a monthly basis, sales fell 22 percent in September compared with August. Sales usually fall about 10 percent from August to September.

We cannot afford the monthly payment

Sales of newly built homes are suffering more than sales of existing homes, likely because fewer are being built compared with historical production levels. Newly built homes also come at a price premium. Sales of newly built homes were 47 percent below the September average dating back to 1988, while sales of existing homes were 22 percent below their long-term average.

The median price of Southern California homes sold in September, $505,000, was still 3.6 percent higher than it was a year ago. That was the lowest annual gain for any month in more than three years.

“Price growth is moderating amid slower sales and more listings in many markets,” LePage said. “This is welcome news for potential homebuyers, but many still face a daunting hurdle – the monthly mortgage payment, which has been pushed up sharply by rising mortgage rates.”

LePage noted that while the median sale price was up 3.6 percent year over year in September, the principal and interest mortgage payment on the median-priced home was up 14.2 percent because mortgage rates increased about 0.8 percentage point over that period.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/southern-california-suffers-its-worst-housing-slump-in-over-a-decade.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief

  

Lumber, OSB, and Gypsum Prices Fall | Waccabuc Real Estate

Residential construction goods input prices reversed course in September, increasing 0.2% after declining each of the prior two months, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for inputs to residential construction has risen 5.2% in 2018 and is 10.2% higher than it was in January 2017.

Gypsum prices also reversed trend in September, falling 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) after a combined increase of 6.1% over the prior two months. Since the start of the year, the price index for gypsum products has increased 1.0% per month, on average.

From January to September of 2017, prices paid for gypsum products rose 7.2%. The index has increased 8.1% over the same period in 2018.

The September PPI release continued to capture decreases in prices paid for softwood lumber that began in mid-June. However, even after accounting for the most recent price movements, the average price paid for softwood lumber in 2018 remains the highest on record according to Random Lengths data—18.7% above the prior record set in 1997.

The index for prices paid for OSB (and waferboard) decreased for the second consecutive month (-5.2%, not seasonally adjusted). Prices are down 16.4% since July and have declined in five of the past 12 months.

The index for ready-mix concrete (RMC) prices increased 0.4% (seasonally adjusted), reversing a four-month trend of price declines. After an uncharacteristically large monthly increase in March—when the index rose 3.3%–the PPI for RMC has fallen back in line with its long-run trend.

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Mortgage rates average 4.54% | Waccabuc Real Estate

Mortgage Rates Move Up Again

MCLEAN, Va., Sept. 06, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that mortgage rates increased marginally over the past week.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched higher for the second straight week. “Borrowing costs may be slowly on the rise again in coming weeks, as investors remain optimistic about the underlying strength of the economy,” he said. “It’s important to note that rates are now up three-quarters of a percentage point from last year and home prices – albeit at a slower pace – are still outrunning rising inflation and incomes.”

Added Khater, “This weakening in affordability is hindering many interested buyers this fall, even as the robust economy brings them into the market. The good news is that purchase mortgage applications have recently rebounded to above year ago levels.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.54 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending September 6, 2018, up from last week when it averaged 4.52 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.78 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.99 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.08 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.93 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it with an average 3.85 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.15 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

London prices falling | Waccabuc Real Estate

House prices in some of London’s wealthiest boroughs plummeted as much as 14.9% in the year to January, dragging down the average price in the capital—and in England—according to a report Monday by real estate consultants Acadata.

Prices in the capital fell 0.8% in January from December, to £593,396 (US$825,318). That’s down 2.6% annually, the report said, the biggest fall since August 2009, when the recession was still in full swing.

Price growth across the U.K. has likely been weighed down by uncertainties surrounding Brexit, along with 2016’s 3% surcharge on second homes and buy-to-let properties. “Subsequent to the introduction of this tax, the rates of price growth have been falling, and at an accelerated rate since September 2017,” the report said.

No doubt the fall is more acutely felt in London, a hotspot for international investors.

The biggest drops were logged in the priciest boroughs.

Wandsworth saw the largest dip, with the average price declining 14.9% in the year to January, to £685,567 (US$953,514) from £805,460 (US$1.12 million) the prior year. The City of London followed, where prices are now £844,768 (US$1.17 million), down 10.8% from last January and in Islington, prices are down 8.8% to £684,869 (US$952,543).

But in the city’s most expensive borough, Kensington and Chelsea, prices rose 4.6% up to £2.16 million (US$3 million).

Combined, the most expensive 11 boroughs fell by 3.8%, while mid-priced boroughs are down an average 2.7%, according to the report.

The less expensive boroughs fared better. More than half logged price rises over the last year, led by Bexley, which saw its average price rise 4.5% to £363,082 (US$504,988). In Barking and Dagenham, which has the lowest priced property in the capital, according to the report, prices inched up 0.1% to £300,627 (US$418,124).

Brent, in northwest London and home to Wembley Stadium, logged the largest price increases, up 8.5% to £587,372 (US$816,940).

 

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www.mansionhomes.com

Mortgage applications fall | Waccabuc Real Estate

Mortgage applications in the United States fell 9.7 percent in the week ending September 15th, 2017, after rising 9.9 percent in the previous period. It is the sharpest decline in mortgage applications since July of 2016, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. Applications to purchase a home slumped 10.8 percent and refinance applications dropped 8.5 percent. The average fixed 30-year mortgage rate edged up by 1bps to 4.04 percent. Mortgage Applications in the United States averaged 0.48 percent from 2007 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 49.10 percent in January of 2015 and a record low of -38.80 percent in January of 2009.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications

 

 

 

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2017-09-06 11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 3.3% -2.3 0.50%
2017-09-13 11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 9.9% 3.3% 0.48%
2017-09-20 11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications -9.7% 9.9% 0.43%
2017-09-27 11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 0.45%
2017-10-04 11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 0.46%
2017-10-11 11:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications 0.46%

 

United States Housing Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Building Permits 1300.00 1230.00 2419.00 513.00 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1180.00 1190.00 2494.00 478.00 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 571.00 630.00 1389.00 270.00 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -1.30 0.30 30.90 -24.30 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5440.00 5510.00 7250.00 1370.00 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.60 -1.40 5.90 -4.80 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.10 0.30 1.20 -1.80 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 64.00 67.00 78.00 8.00 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.04 4.03 10.56 3.47 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -9.70 9.90 49.10 -38.80 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.70 63.60 69.20 62.90 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 200.54 199.05 206.52 100.00 Index Points

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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-applications

Consumers remain too optimistic when estimating home value | Waccabuc Real Estate

Homeowners continue to overestimate their home values, however the gap continues to narrow, according to the latest National Home Price Perception Index from Quicken Loans.

The index, which compares homeowners estimates and the appraised home values, showed appraised home values came in 1.35% lower than homeowner estimates in August. This gap is smaller than July’s gap of 1.55%.

This closing gap is due, in part, by the increase in appraised values which ticked up 0.19% in August. This is up 2.64% from August of last year.

“As the sun sets on the summer, some of the intense competition for housing also winds down,” said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans executive vice president of capital markets. “It’s important to focus on the annual numbers with the HVI. While there can be some monthly variations in the data, especially as seasons start to change, the annual numbers show healthy growth across the country.”

The chart below shows despite the narrowing gap over the past few months, homeowners have been overestimating their home values since the beginning of 2015.

Click to Enlarge

HPPI

(Source: Quicken Loans)

Homeowner perception varied widely from one region to the next, as appraisal values ranged from 3% higher than homeowner estimates in the West to 3% lower in the Midwest and Northeast.

The chart below shows the index in varies metros across the U.S.

Click to Enlarge

HPPI

(Source: Quicken Loans)

“One of the biggest lessons from the HPPI, is highlighting how regionalized real estate is,” Banfield said. “Homeowners who have a better understanding of their local housing market can make more informed decisions about their home. After all, their house is not just where they live, but one of their bigger assets.”

 

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https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41281-consumers-remain-too-optimistic-when-estimating-home-value?eid=311691494&bid=1863956

Mortgage rates fall again | Waccabuc Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping for the fourth consecutive week and hitting its lowest level in nearly seven months.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending June 8, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 3.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.60 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.19 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.87 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.11 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.82 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points this week. The 30-year mortgage rate moved in tandem with Treasury yields, falling 5 basis points to 3.89 percent. Mixed economic data and increasing uncertainty are continuing to push rates to the lowest levels in nearly seven months.”

Canada Must Deflate Its Housing Bubble | Waccabuc Real Estate

Canada’s housing market offers a case study in a contentious economic issue: If a central bank sees a bubble forming, should it act to deflate it? In this instance, the answer should be a resounding yes.

A combination of foreign money, local speculation and abundant credit has driven Canadian house prices to levels that even government officials recognize cannot be sustained. In the Toronto area, for example, they were up 32 percent from a year earlier in April. David Rosenberg, an economist at Canadian investment firm Gluskin Sheff, notes that it would take a decline of more than 40 percent to restore the historical relationship between prices and household income.

Granted, the bubble bears little resemblance to the U.S. subprime boom that triggered the global financial crisis. Although one specialized lender, Home Capital Group, has had issues with fraudulent mortgage applications, regulation has largely kept out high-risk products. Homeowners haven’t been withdrawing a lot of equity, and can’t legally walk away from their debts like many Americans can. Banks aren’t sitting on the kinds of structured products that destroyed balance sheets in the U.S. Nearly all mortgage securities and a large portion of loans are guaranteed by the government.

That said, the situation presents clear risks. As buyers stretch to afford homes, household debt has risen to 167 percent of disposable income — the highest among the Group of Seven industrialized nations. This is a serious vulnerability, and a big part of the rationale behind Canadian banks’ recent ratings downgrade. The more indebted people are, the more sensitive their spending becomes to changes in prices and interest rates, potentially allowing an otherwise small shock to result in a deep recession.

What to do? Administrative efforts to curb lending and tax foreign buyers have helped but haven’t solved the problem. That’s largely because extremely low interest rates are still giving people a big incentive to borrow. The Bank of Canada has held its target rate at 1 percent or lower since 2009, and at 0.5 percent since 2015, when it eased to counteract the effect of falling oil prices. That’s a very stimulative stance in a country where the neutral rate is estimated to be about 3 percent or higher. One can’t help but see a parallel with the low U.S. rates and the housing bubble of the early 2000s.

 

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https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-23/what-canada-should-do-about-its-housing-bubble