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North Salem NY Real Estate

Mortgage rate hits record low 3.07% | North Salem Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.07 percent, the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971.

“Mortgage rates continue to slowly drift downward with a distinct possibility that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could dip below 3 percent later this year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “On the economic front, incoming data suggest the rebound in economic activity has paused in the last couple of weeks with modest declines in consumer spending and a pullback in purchase activity.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending July 2, 2020, down from 3.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.  
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.56 percent with an average 0.8 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.59 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.18 percent.  
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.00 percent with an average 0.3 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.45 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.

CoreLogic prices up 5.8% | North Salem Real Estate

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through  April 2020 with forecasts from May 2020 and April 2021.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.

HPI National Change

April 2020 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.4% in April 2020 compared with April 2019 and increased month over month by 1.4% in April 2020 compared with March 2020 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.3% from April 2020 to May 2020, and decline 1.3% on a year-over-year basic from April 2020 to April 2021. 2021 will mark the first year home prices are expected to decline in more than nine years

HPI National Change

“The very low inventory of homes for sale, coupled with homebuyers’ spur of record-low mortgage rates, will likely continue to support home price growth during the spring. If unemployment remains elevated in early 2021, then we can expect home prices to soften. Our forecast has home prices down in 12 months across 41 states.”

– Dr. Frank Nothaft 
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

HPI & Case-Shiller Trends

This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.

HPI Case Shiller

COVID-19 Impact on
Home Prices

The home price acceleration in the April HPI was supported by increased homes sales in the first quarter of the year. Home price growth is expected to decelerate somewhat in May, with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast calling for a month-over-month increase of 0.3% compared with April 2020. Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts an annual price decline of 1.3% from April 2020 to April 2021. In 2021, home prices are expected to decline for the first time in more than nine years. 

Home-purchase activity slowed over March and April compared to last year as shelter-in-place orders, and an unprecedented spike in unemployment, dented home-buying activity fueled by millennials. Nationally, the for-sale inventory of entry-level homes plummeted on average 25% in April. Should this trend continue, we may see an adverse effect on home sales in the near term.

HPI Coronavirus

http://stage.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx

“Tight supply and pent-up demand, particularly among millennials, provides optimism for a bounce-back in the housing market purchase activity and home prices over the medium term. The next 12 to 18 months are going to be very tough times for the broader economy. As employment and economic activity begin to pick up, as it will surely do, we expect housing to be a driver in a national recovery.”

-Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic

HPI National and State Maps – April 2020

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Nationally, the year-over-year home price changed by 5.4%. No states posted an annual decline in home prices in April 2020.

The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Idaho (12%, Arizona (8.3%), Indiana (8%) and Missouri (8%).

Top Us Metro Areas HPI

HPI Top 10 Metros Change

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

These large cities continue to experience price increases, with Washington D.C. leading the way at 5.7% year over year.

Market Risk Indicators

Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

The Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts a very high probability (above 60%) of a decline in home prices in Prescott, Arizona; Huntington, West Virginia; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and College Station-Bryan, Texas, over the next 12 months. It also predicts a moderate probability of a price decline (40-60%) in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida. Huntington, West Virginia, was hit particularly hard by the recent downturn in the oil and gas industry. Typical vacation spots, like Cape Coral-Fort Myers and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton in Florida, as well as Prescott, Arizona, are also expected to experience a decline in home property value as visitors stay home and vacation rentals are sold.

Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) Metro Area Maps – April 2020

The first map displayed is the HPI by CBSA for  April 2020.

According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 40% of metropolitan areas had an overvalued housing market in April 2020, while 18% were undervalued and 42% were at value. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.

Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) Metro Area Maps - April 2020

Summary

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicator

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. 

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as “overvalued”, “at value”, or “undervalued.” These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10%, and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.

For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Allyse Sanchez at corelogic@ink-co.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.


About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), the leading provider of property insights and solutions, promotes a healthy housing market and thriving communities. Through its enhanced property data solutions, services and technologies, CoreLogic enables real estate professionals, financial institutions, insurance carriers, government agencies and other housing market participants to help millions of people find, acquire and protect their homes. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Mortgage rates average 3.36% | North Salem Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.26 percent.

“Mortgage rates stayed at or near record lows for the fifth straight week and homeowners are taking advantage with refinance activity remaining high,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Although purchase demand declined thirty-five percent year-over-year in mid-April, demand has improved modestly over the last three weeks.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.26 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 7, 2020, up from last week when it averaged 3.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.10 percent.  
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.73 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.77 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.57 percent.  
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.17 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.14 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.63 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Mortgage rates rise to 3.88% | North Salem Real Estate

 Here’s how mortgage rates have changed this week The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose this week to 3.88 percent from 3.77 percent, according to Bankrate’s weekly survey of large lenders. The rise in rates may be partly due to constrained capacity at the nation’s mortgage lenders, which are coping with a more than four-fold increase in applications as rates have plunged during the coronavirus pandemic.

The rates that Bankrate collects each week are national averages from larger lenders in big cities. You will probably be able to find rates lower than these averages by shopping a variety of lenders and being persistent when your phone calls to lenders take longer to be answered. Need a loan ? read the information of GTRwallet.com, you can find everything regarding loans and lenders.

Keep in mind that mortgage closings are being extended as all phases of the process are overwhelmed with additional work. For a new mortgage, it’s wise to request an interest rate lock of at least 45 days and preferably 60 days. Locks aren’t free–the longer the lock, the higher the rate you will be quoted.

These are extraordinary times for homeowners, homebuyers and lenders, so please be patient. Bankrate is here to help, with news, data and information about all aspects of mortgages and real estate, just visit <!–td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}–>
SoFi to get further information!
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www.bankrate.com

New home sales surge | North Salem Real Estate

Contracts for new, single-family home sales increased 7.9% in January to a 764,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate according to estimates from the joint release of HUD and the Census Bureau. The increase came off an upwardly revised December estimate, which was revised from an initial reading of 694,000 to a new estimate of 708,000. Year-over-year, the January estimate is 18.6% higher than the same period in 2019. The three-month moving average for new home sales reached 721,000 in January, the strongest since September 2007. Sales were strong in January, supported by lower mortgage rates and historically low unemployment.

Regionally, new home sales were up 4.8% in the Northeast, 30.3% in Midwest, and 23.5% in the West, and down 4.4% in the South.

Compared to last month, inventory of new homes for sale increased 0.3% to 324,000 in January. Year-over-year, inventory of new homes for sale was 6.6% lower than a year ago (347,000). The current months’ supply fell to 5.1 in January, pointing to additional production gains.

Median new home sales price (price of a home in the middle of the distribution) rose 7.4% in January to $348,200 compared to December ($324,100) and 14.0% higher than a year ago ($305,400).

About 9% of newly built home sales are priced under $200,000 in January, compared to 11% last month and 9% one year ago. The number of new homes priced above $400,000 increased.

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Low mortgage rates are clearly helping the market | North Salem Real Estate

The cheapest financing in more than three years is making it easier for first-time buyers to afford a home. A tiny bit easier.

Instead of having just enough income needed to buy a median-priced starter home at current mortgage rates, they now have a small buffer, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. Other than this, The best vacuum for pet owners, the Miele Cat & Dog Upright vacuum . I’d wish to explain a couple of features of this vacuum to assist out those that need an honest vacuum for his or her home they share with pets – a bit like me! Many folks here have a cat or dog. Immune-D, our liquid dog supplement is filled with nutrients, vitamins and minerals that dogs need to live a longer and more vibrant life. They’re cute and cuddly but leave plenty of fur everywhere the house! That’s why Miele has an upright vacuum that’s designed to wash up all that hair left by our furry friends! I’d wish to allow you to know why it’s meant for pet owners. Search here for automatic vacuum cleaner for dog hair.

In 2019’s second quarter, first-timers had 100% of the median household income to buy a home, as measured by NAR’s First-Time Homebuyer Affordability Index that crunches income, financing rates and home prices. By the third quarter, the index showed they had 105% of the income they needed.

“The low mortgage rates are clearly helping the market conditions,” Yun said in an interview with HousingWire. “Home prices consistently rising at a faster pace than people’s income growth has hurt, but because of the historically low rates, it’s providing marginal opportunities for first-time buyers.”

Lower mortgage rates compensate for higher home prices and lagging income growth because the cheaper financing lowers a buyer’s monthly payments. A Mortgage Cаlсulаtоr wіll nоt аlwауѕ ѕhоw уоu hоw much Compound іntеrеѕt рlауѕ a huge role іn сrеаtіng рауmеnt ѕсhеdulеѕ that соntrоl how muсh borrowers have to рау еасh mоnth, but іt wіll keep уоu on trасk tо undеrѕtаndіng hоw you can соntrоl your own fіnаnсіng. A mortgage has an interest rate whісh dесіdеѕ hоw much іntеrеѕt you muѕt рау in addition tо уоur principal balance. It also dеtеrmіnеѕ how muсh рrоfіt уоur lender will еаrn. Yоu MUST аlѕо think аbоut Hоw Often уоur rаtе gеtѕ applied to thе mortgage principal. Yоu саn оftеn lower уоur interest рауmеntѕ bу controlling compounding реrіоd, Click here mortgage right | moreira team for more details.

The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.94% in 2019, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the lowest annual average since 2016 when it was 3.65%. The average for 2020 and 2021 probably will be 3.8%, the mortgage financier said in a forecast last month.

Home prices grew 3.2% in 2019, according to the forecast. That’s a slower pace than in 2018 when the growth rate was 5.1%.

However, income growth has been lethargic. The median household income was $66,043 in November, a gain of 1.9% higher than a year ago, adjusted for inflation, according to Sentier Research.

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10 Cities Where It’s Becoming More Affordable to Buy a Home | North Salem Real Estate

more-affordable-less-affordable
Allentown, PA: Ultima_Gaina/iStock; Tulsa, OK: Sean Pavone/iStock

After nearly a decade of ever-escalating home prices and frenzied bidding wars, many buyers are wondering if finding an affordable piece of real estate has become about as likely as discovering a mint condition Honus Wagner baseball card in your stuff drawer, a double eagle coin on your dresser, or a unicorn in your driveway.

But wait! The list of markets where folks can score a home without shattering  the bank is, in fact, growing. About 81% of housing markets have become more affordable since the beginning of the year, according to a realtor.com® report.

Reality check: This doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s suddenly a cinch to become a homeowner in these areas, only that it’s getting a little better for tapped-out buyers. And in a hot market, every little bit helps.

So we decided to take a deep dive into where home affordability is increasing—and decreasing—the most. To figure this out, we looked at home prices as well as local household income in the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the third quarter of the year.* (Metros include the main city and the surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller cities.)

So what’s driving the more affordable side of the equation?

“Mortgage rates are much lower than they were, and incomes have actually grown this year for most Americans,” says George Ratiu, realtor.com®’s senior economist. “Those two things combined have led to an improvement in affordability for home buyers.”

Nationally, affordability rose the most in predominantly midsized cities, many in the Midwest and South. These places tend to have strong economies and job markets and a larger supply of available homes for sale.

With the potential to make good money, more buyers in these areas are positioned to become homeowners or to trade up to nicer residences.

In most of these markets, millennials looking for homes where they can raise growing families are still competing with Generation Xers searching for move-up residences, and baby boomers wanting to find their forever abodes.

But in most cases, inventory’s not plunging by the double digits, which leads to insane price increases. (The one exception on our list was Jackson, MS, No. 8, where the number of homes for sale was down a steep 14.5% in October compared to a year ago.)

The inventory situation is trending in a whole different direction, however, in markets where homes are becoming less affordable.

Affordability primarily dropped in smaller cities with good job markets—places that are growing in popularity with cost-conscious buyers from other parts of the country. These cities tend to be far from the bigger, more expensive metros.

The influx of new residents is putting the squeeze on inventory, meaning that the number of homes for sale plummets and that prices spike.

“Before the recession, a lot of young professionals flocked to coastal cities looking for better-paying jobs and an urban lifestyle,” says Ratiu. “What we’re seeing now is a lot of the same professionals, approaching 40, with families and kids, are returning to their hometowns in the Midwest and South, looking for a better quality of life and a more affordable housing market.”

OK, so let’s take a deeper look—first at the places where buying a house is getting a bit easier.

Where has it become more affordable to buy a home?

More affordable metros
More affordable metrosTony Frenzel
Metropolitan areaMedian home list price**Percentage of homes available at the median incomeAnnual change in affordability score*
1. Allentown, PA$224,95059%0.14
2.Des Moines, IA$262,35056%0.13
3. Atlanta $321,10041%0.12
4. Minneapolis $339,95046%0.11
5. San Francisco$940,00018%0.11
6. Omaha, NE $279,30041%0.10
7. Charlotte, NC $335,30032%0.10
8. Jackson, MS $251,55042%0.09
9. Spokane, WA$349,75023%0.09
10. Las Vegas $320,00025%0.09

Where should buyers on a more limited budget go? They might want to head to the heart of the Rust Belt, to Allentown, PA, a one-time industrial powerhouse that fell on hard times, inspired a catchy-but-depressing Billy Joel song, and is now staging a strong comeback. Affordability in the rebounding area improved the most compared to the rest of the nation.

Already-low real estate prices in the former steel town slipped almost 1% in October compared to the previous year, according to realtor.com data.

The median price was $224,950—38.7% less than the national median of $312,000. The low prices meant that middle-income buyers in Allentown could afford 59% of the properties in the metro.

“Lately more than ever, I’ve been working with people relocating to our area,” says Allentown real estate agent Faith Brenneisen of Keller Williams Real Estate.

About a third of her clients are professionals, either starting out their careers or beginning to contemplate retirement and coming from pricier New Jersey or the Washington, DC, area suburbs.

“They come here, and they can get similar jobs with less of a commute, a better quality of life, and a more distinguished home—for a much more affordable price tag.”

She noted Allentown’s convenient location, about 90 miles west of New York City and 60 miles north of Philadelphia. The area also boasts plenty of outdoor activities, such as fishing, hiking, and skiing. New businesses are moving into Allentown’s downtown area, helping to revitalize the city.

“You can live in a three-bedroom Cape Cod home in a cute West End neighborhood in Allentown for $200,000,” says Brenneisen. “And you can walk to restaurants and shopping and theater.”

In Des Moines, which placed just behind Allentown in affordability gains, median-income buyers could afford 56% of homes on the market. That’s because a current surge of available homes, thanks to heavy sales activity, resulted in an 8.1% annual drop in prices.

Add in the metro’s booming job market, and the result is that more folks can finally get into the housing market. (The financial firm Principal Financial Group is headquartered in Des Moines, and the companies Nationwide Insurance, UPS, and John Deere have operations there.)

With 5.7% more homes for sale year over year, they don’t have to bid up the prices to score the keys to a new abode.

“More people are at a point where they’re comfortable selling,” says Paul Walter, a Des Moines-based real estate agent at Re/Max Real Estate Group.

Walter works with a lot of millennial buyers moving out of their apartments and into single-family homes as they begin to start families.

“A lot of people have enough [home] equity, and they’re comfortable enough with the economy to move up [into nicer houses]—or, if they’re retirees, to downsize.”

There were a few surprises on our list. For example, it’s getting more affordable to buy a home in—wait for it—the nation’s most notoriously expensive market, San Francisco!

But take that with a shaker full of salt. The median price in that metro is still an astronomical $940,000—well out of reach of the vast majority of those who are not millionaires. If they’re earning the median household income for the Bay Area, buyers can only afford 18% of the listings available.

In San Francisco, lower mortgage rates have played a role in boosting the area’s affordability, says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst in the Bay Area for the real estate brokerage Compass.

Plus, after years of sky-high annual price rises, the market has flattened, he says. Even in the United States’ tech and startup capital, home prices can’t go up forever.

“People bumped their heads up against the ceiling of what they could (or were willing to) pay,” Carlisle says,

Sorry to put a damper on things—now it’s time to zero in on places where it’s becoming harder to make that big down payment.

Where has it become less affordable to buy a home?

Less affordable metros
Less affordable metrosTony Frenzel
Metropolitan areaMedian home list price**Percentage of homes available at the median incomeAnnual change in affordability score*
1. Tulsa, OK$246,70043%-0.07
2. El Paso, TX$191,26024%-0.06
3. Winston-Salem, NC$281,00034%-0.04
4. Rochester, NY$202,55048%-0.03
5. Philadelphia$299,05044%-0.03
6. Oxnard, CA$782,0506%-0.02
7. Birmingham, AL $255,55046% -0.01
8. Bakersfield, CA$259,95034% -0.01
9. Colorado Springs, CO$427,42516%-0.01
10. Knoxville, TN$285,00031%0

Just because it’s getting a little easier to buy a home in many parts of the country, it doesn’t mean the real estate market is finally hunky-dory for aspiring homeowners who aren’t raking in high six-figure salaries.

Only 18% of markets are truly affordable for the folks who live there, according to the report. Even in metros showing signs of improvement, home prices are still well out of reach for many regular folks.

Metros where it’s becoming even harder for locals to purchase a home are more often than not seeing big inventory decreases. That lack of supply leads to surging prices—which effectively puts the kibosh on any dreams of homeownership.

“Demand has been so strong, it’s pushing demand up,” says realtor.com’s Ratiu. “More people want to buy homes than there are homes for sale.”

Tulsa‘s affordability dropped the most in the nation, as its home inventory plummeted. It nose-dived roughly 26% in October compared to the previous year, according to realtor.com data. That’s thanks to a rush of opportunistic buyers entering the market when mortgage interest rates fell.

First-time buyers and investors gobbled up whatever they could find, leading prices to shoot up by nearly 15% in October compared to the previous year. Tulsa’s median list price was $246,700 in October, according to realtor.com data.

The scarcity of available homes leads to bidding wars. Tulsa real estate agent Suzanne Rentz is now getting up to nine or 10 offers within 72 hours on properties in the most desirable areas.

“That wasn’t happening until the last 18 months,” she says. The sweet spot for local and out-of-state buyers are four-bedroom, three-bathroom, single-family homes in the suburbs (often with a pristine backyard) for $250,000.

In the rest of the metros on this list, the number of homes for sale also fell by the double digits. While that’s great for sellers who may not have to make all those needed repairs, or knock down the price, it’s bad news for buyers as they compete against one another.

The number of homes for sale also fell in all of the metros where affordability worsened the most. Inventory was down nearly 20% in El Paso, TX; 13.7% in Winston-Salem, NC; 20.1% in Rochester, NY; and 19.4% in Philadelphia in October compared to the previous year.

It also decreased 18.4% in Oxnard, CA; 13.6% in Birmingham, AL; nearly 14% in Bakersfield, CA; 17.6% in Colorado Springs, CO; and 17.1% in Knoxville, TN.

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https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/its-becoming-more-and-less-affordable-to-buy-a-home-in-these-cities/

Mortgage rates average 3.75% | North Salem Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.75 percent.

“The modest uptick in mortgage rates over the last two months reflects declining recession fears and a more sanguine outlook for the global economy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Due to the improved economic outlook, purchase mortgage applications rose fifteen percent over the same week a year ago, the second highest weekly increase in the last two years. Given the important role residential real estate plays in the economy, the steady improvement of the housing market is a reassuring sign that the economy is on solid ground heading into next year.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.75 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending November 14, 2019, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.94 percent. 
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.2 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.36 percent. 
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.44 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.39 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.14 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

NYC sales and prices drop after new taxes | North Salem Real Estate

The Manhattan real estate market stumbled in the third quarter of 2019, new reports show, as prices plunged and fewer buyers were willing to purchase higher-priced properties in the wake of two recent tax increases.

The median sales price for properties fell 17 percent from the same quarter last year, to $999,950, according to new data from CORE. The average sales price dropped 12 percent, to $1.64 million.

Condo sales fell 8 percent, logging 946 transactions. Co-op sales, on the other hand, were up a modest 2 percent year over year.

“The third quarter of 2019 was undoubtedly the most challenging quarter in recent memory, especially for condo sales,” Garrett Derderian, managing director of market analysis at CORE, said in a statement. “Market prices have gone from what was once described as the kindest, gentlest correction to a near free fall. The last time conditions were described in such a way was in the height of the recession.”

Only 9.7 percent of sales were above $3 million, down 14.8 percent from last year. The last time sales above $3 million were that low was in 2012.

Consequently, nearly 30 percent of inventory on the market was priced above $3 million.

It’s worth noting that many buyers rushed to purchase properties before an increase in the city’s mansion tax and transfer tax took effect in July.

“Third quarter data reflects a more accurate snapshot of the current market – continued price correction,” Diane M. Ramirez, Chairman & CEO of Halstead, said in a statement.

Halstead’s own report released on Wednesday showed Manhattan apartment sales fell 16 percent in the third quarter – with sales above $5 million dropping nearly 50 percent.

Properties, meanwhile, spent an average of 192 days on the market – the highest quarterly total since the final quarter of 2012.

In July, New York City increased its mansion tax – a progressive tax that applies to home sales of more than $1 million – to a maximum of 3.9 percent, up from a flat-rate of 1 percent. The tax rates vary from 1.25 percent for $2 million sales, to 3.9 percent for sales of $25 million and higher. The city also increased a one-time charge on properties worth more than $2 million – known as the transfer tax. That fee, typically paid by a seller, varies from 0.4 percent for transactions under $3 million, to 0.65 percent for anything above $3 million.

As previously reported by FOX Business, more than 25 percent of new condos that have been built in New York City since 2013 remain unsold. In terms of units – of the 16,242 condos built since 2013, about 12,133 have sold. That means more than 4,100 have not.

Experts have said the trend could be indicative of a potential future recession.

Falling real estate prices come as concerns mount over the new tax law’s impact on high-tax states – particularly a $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Some people have begun fleeing states like New York and New Jersey, headed for lower-tax areas like Florida and Texas.

New York was one of a handful of states dealt a blow in its bid to challenge the SALT cap this week, after a judge dismissed its lawsuit.

read more…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/nyc-housing-prices-near-free-fall-recession-era-tax-hikes

Home Prices are on the Rise Again | North Salem Real Estate

A second housing price index is showing an uptick in the rate of appreciation, possibly because interest rates declines have begun to mitigate affordability issues.  CoreLogic says its Home Price Index for July was up 3.6 percent in July, the annual increase in June, was 3.4 percent.  On a month over month basis the gain was 0.5 percent compared to an increase of 0.4 percent the previous month.  Last week Black Knight noted that the rate of increase in its index had risen for the first time in 16 months.

CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said, “Sales of new and existing homes this July were up from a year ago, supported by low mortgage rates and rising family income. With the for-sale inventory remaining low in many markets, the pick-up in buying has nudged price growth up. If low interest rates and rising income continue, then we expect home-price growth will strengthen over the coming year.”

Annual price gains were experienced in all states but Connecticut and South Dakota. The highest increases were posted in Idaho (11.5 percent) Utah (8.4 percent) and Maine (7.7 percent).

The company’s forecast is for home prices to increase by 5.4 percent on a year over year basis from July to this year to the corresponding month in 2020.  On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.4 percent from July 2019 to August 2019.

The graph below shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. Both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.

“Although the rise in home prices has slowed over the past several months, we see a reacceleration over the next year to just over 5 percent on an annualized basis,” CEO President and CEO Frank Martell commented.  “Lower rates are certainly making it more affordable to buy homes and millennial buyers are entering the market with increasing force.  These positive demand drivers, which are occurring against a backdrop of persistent shortages in housing stock, are the major drivers for higher home prices, which will likely continue to rise for the foreseeable future.”

During the second quarter of 2019, CoreLogic and RTi Research conducted a survey of Millennial generation consumer-housing sentiment.  They found that approximately 26 percent of that age group expressed an interest in buying a home in the next 12 months, but only 8 percent indicated a desire to sell their home within the same time frame. This means that new housing starts, or sellers from other age cohorts, will need to make up the necessary available supply to meet the demand. This desire to buy while housing stock is limited will continue to force prices up as buyers search for a home to purchase.

CoreLogic considers 37 percent of large metropolitan areas to have an overvalued housing stock as of July.  Their analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Twenty-three percent were undervalued, and 40 percent were at value. When the analysis is done on only the top 50 markets 40 percent were overvalued, 16 percent were undervalued, and 44 percent were at value.

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http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09032019_corelogic_hpi.asp