Tag Archives: Mt Kisco Homes

Housing starts analysis | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Comments on August Housing Starts

 

Earlier: Housing Starts Increased to 1.282 Million Annual Rate in August

Housing starts in August were above expectations,  and starts for June and July were revised up.  Most of the increase, and upward revisions, were due to the multi-family starts that are volatile month-to-month.

The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were up 9.2% in August compared to July (and August starts were revised up), and starts were up 9.4% year-over-year compared to August 2017.

Multi-family starts were down 38% year-over-year, and single family starts were down slightly year-over-year.

This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2017 (blue) and 2018 (red).

image: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QB_1ld2C2zg/W6JFJO03NdI/AAAAAAAAwCw/oMfZl_MNKV4JQQ89VJQniVoY4Ye5wNn3wCLcBGAs/s320/Starts20172018Aug.PNG

Starts Housing 2017 and 2018Click on graph for larger image.

Starts were up 9.4% in August compared to August 2017.

Through eight months, starts are up 6.9% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2017.   That is a decent increase.

Note that 2017 finished strong, so the year-over-year comparisons will be more difficult in Q4.

Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0xhVPfh9cYs/W6JIb4I3CSI/AAAAAAAAwC8/BEcLqA1gitQDc3A9Al4_nRmL5aFh0fUiwCLcBGAs/s320/MultiAug2018.PNG

Multifamily Starts and completionsThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession – but turned down, and has moved sideways recently.  Completions (red line) had lagged behind – however completions and starts are at about the same level now (more deliveries).

It is likely that both starts and completions, on rolling 12 months basis, will now move mostly sideways.

As I’ve been noting for a few years, the significant growth in multi-family starts is behind us – multi-family starts peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR).

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2POZ_G_0KLM/W6JIeSHjiXI/AAAAAAAAwDA/WqiMP6SJVeMzG5uNm7yh_15gaMoqvNRDACLcBGAs/s320/SingleAug2018.PNG

Single family Starts and completionsThe second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions.  The “wide bottom” was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect a couple more years, or more, of increasing single family starts and completions.

Note: Two months ago, in response to numerous articles discussing the “slowing housing market” and some suggesting “housing has peaked”, I wrote: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2). My view – that there will be further growth in housing starts – remains the same.

Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#o2tyGm3q82iFADMX.99

China’s biggest risk may be its property market | Mt Kisco Real Estate

China’s hot real estate market remains a challenge for authorities trying to maintain stable economic growth in the face of trade tensions with the U.S.

In fact, property is the country’s biggest risk in the next 12 months, much greater than the trade war, according to Larry Hu, head of greater China economics at Macquarie. He said he is especially watching whether the real estate market in lower-tier, or smaller, cities will see a downturn in prices or housing starts after recent sharp increases.

Real estate investment accounts for about two-thirds of Chinese household assets, according to wealth manager Noah Holdings. The property market also plays a significant role in local government revenues, bank loans and corporate investment. As a result, a sharp slowdown in the real estate market’s growth and drop in prices would have a negative affect on overall economic growth.

So far, the market has been hot: The average selling price for newly built non-governmental housing in 60 tier-three and tier-four cities tracked by Tospur Real Estate Consulting rose 28.1 percent from January 2016 to May 2018. That’s according to a report last week co-authored by Sheng Songcheng, a counselor to the People’s Bank of China and an adjunct professor at the China Europe International Business School, an educational joint-venture co-founded by the Chinese government and the European Union.

Domestic property prices overall have also been rising for more than three years, the longest streak since 2008, the report said, citing National Bureau of Statistics data.

Property sales

Source: Wind, Macquarie Macro Strategy, August 2018

Last week, Nanjing, a tier-two city, announced a ban on corporate purchases of residential properties, following similar moves to limit speculation by Shanghai and some other cities.

“You do not want to give Jeff Bezos a seven-year head start.”
Hear what else Buffett has to say

That’s a good move for controlling risk, according to Joe Zhou, real estate and investment management firm JLL’s regional director for China capital markets. He said the government is not likely to loosen its policy soon and that prices could decline on average.

However, it’s unclear whether a downturn in China’s property market would necessarily impact overall growth on the same scale. The public still expects property prices to increase because the government has constantly switched between tightening and easing policies, often to prevent a drop in growth, CEIBS’ Sheng said in the report.

Analysts also generally predict authorities will counter tightening measures with stimulus in other parts of the economy such as infrastructure. In the meantime, China’s export-reliant economy also faces pressure from U.S. tariffs and rising trade tensions.

 

read more…

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/china-economy-biggest-risk-may-be-property-market-not-trade-war.html

Mortgage rates average 4.02% | Mt. Kisco Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining around four percent for the fifth consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.02 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending May 18, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 4.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.58 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.27 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.81 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.13 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.14 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.80 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 30-year mortgage rate fell 3 basis points this week to 4.02 percent. However, this week’s survey closed prior to Wednesday’s flight to quality. The delayed impact of the associated decline in Treasury yields may push mortgage rates lower in next week’s survey.”

Mortgage Rates Average 3.84% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates falling to their lowest levels since May of this year amid substantial and ongoing global volatility out of China.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending August 27, 2015, down from last week when it averaged 3.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.10 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.06 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.15 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.25 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.90 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.94 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.97 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.62 percent this week with an average 0.3 point, unchanged from last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.39 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for theRegional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Events in China generated eye-catching volatility in equity markets worldwide over the past week. Interest rates also rocked up and down — although to a lesser extent than equities — as investors alternated between flights to quality and bargain hunting among beaten-down stocks. Amidst all this confusion, the 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 3.84 percent, the lowest mark since May and the fifth consecutive week with a rate below 4 percent.”

“Given the recent volatility, mortgage rates could change up or down significantly by the time this report is released. There are indications though that the unsettled state of global markets will make the Fed think twice before taking any action on short-term interest rates in September. If that’s the case, the 30-year mortgage rate may remain subdued in the short-to-medium term, providing support for continued strength in the housing sector. Just this week, new home sales were reported to be up 26 percent year over year.”

Living in your Garden Shed | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Garden sheds are no longer just for storing tools and other things you’d rather hide away. Home dwellers around the world are finding new uses for their backyard outbuildings and making them fit their lifestyles through a wide range of personalized designs. See how these 11 international sheds and cottages have been reimagined for today’s living — be it lounging, dining, working or beekeeping. Which one would suit your backyard best?

Homes are officially being sold at the highest prices, ever | Mt Kisco Realtor

Thanks to rising demand and shrinking supply, the median existing-home price for all housing types reached an all-time high in June.

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, the median existing-homes sales price rose to $236,400, which exceeds the previous peak median sales price set in July 2006 of $230,400.

June’s total also rose 6.5% above June 2014.

In May, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $228,700, which was 7.9% above May 2014.

That marked the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, making June the 40th straight month of year-over-year price gains.

Despite record prices, existing-home sales also reached their highest pace in more than eight years.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.32 million in May.

Sales are now at their highest pace since February 2007 (5.79 million), have increased year-over-year for nine consecutive months and are 9.6% above a year ago (5.01 million).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that buoyed by June’s solid gain in closings, this year’s spring buying season has been the strongest since the crisis began.

“Buyers have come back in force, leading to the strongest past two months in sales since early 2007,” Yun said. “This wave of demand is being fueled by a year-plus of steady job growth and an improving economy that’s giving more households the financial wherewithal and incentive to buy.”

According to NAR’s report, total housing inventory at the end of June rose slightly by 0.9% to 2.30 million existing homes available for sale, which is is 0.4% higher than the same time period a year ago (2.29 million).

Unsold inventory is at a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in May.

“Limited inventory amidst strong demand continues to push home prices higher, leading to declining affordability for prospective buyers,” said Yun. “Local officials in recent years have rightly authorized permits for new apartment construction, but more needs to be done for condominiums and single-family homes.”

According to NAR’s report, the percent share of first-time buyers fell to 30% in June from 32% in May, but remained at or above 30% for the fourth consecutive month.

One year ago, first-time buyers represented 28% of all buyers.

NAR President Chris Polychron said that Realtors are reporting “drastic imbalances” of supply in relation to demand in many metro areas — especially in the West.

“The demand for buying has really heated up this summer, leading to multiple bidders and homes selling at or above asking price,” Polychron said. “Furthermore, tight inventory conditions are being exacerbated by the fact that some homeowners are hesitant to sell because they’re not optimistic they’ll have adequate time to find an affordable property to move into.”

 

read more…

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/34546-homes-are-officially-being-sold-at-the-highest-prices-ever

Mount Kisco Named Among Best Places In New York To Start A Business | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Consumer finance site NerdWallet recently named Mount Kisco the ninth best place to start a business in New York.

Rankings were determined by the following criteria:

  • Average revenue of businesses.
  • Percentage of businesses with paid employees.
  • Businesses per 100 people.
  • Median annual income.
  • Median monthly housing costs.
  • Unemployment rate.

Mount Kisco has more than 17 business per 100 people, which is one of the highest ratios on NerdWallet’s list.

To see the full list, visit: www.nerdwallet.com/blog/small-business/places-start-business-york/.

Local Farmers Markets | Mt Kisco Real Estate

DTE-E-Mail-Masthead_(722x126pxl)_(1-14-15)07

Trotta Foods Features New Pasta Meals at Larchmont Farmers Market;
Newgate Farms Offers Great Produce Specials;
Bring Dad to the Farmers Market + MORE!

June 18-24th, 2015

What’s New, In Season, and On Sale This Weekend
$2 OFF when you buy 2 items: Frozen samosa, kofta, saag,
rajma, and/or chutneys
Bombay Emerald Chutney Co.

Caramelized Garlic Bread
Wave Hill Breads

Garlic Scapes
Dagele Brothers Produce

**NEW** Pasta Meals!
Lasagna, Stuffed Shells, Monacotti (enough for 2) Reg $12; now $10

Trotta Foods

Peas – Snow or Snap – $5/lb
Newgate Farm

Produce varieties: Arugula, Cilantro, Herbs, Scallions, and Lettuces
all $3/bunch or 2 for $5
Newgate Farm

Roman Focaccia – With or
without Rosemary

$5 each OR 3 for $10
Wave Hill Breads

Sausage Rolls Tourtiere
(Quebec Meat Pie)

Stone & Thistle Farm

Squash – Green or yellow – $2/lb
Newgate Farm

Strawberries
$7.50/qt (2 for $14) and $4/pint
Newgate Farm

Strawberry Rhubarb Pie
With Mead Orchard berries
Bread Alone

Strawberry Rhubarb Pies & Tarts
Both regular & gluten-free
Meredith’s Country Bakery

Strawberry Shortcake – made to order – this weekend only!
Newgate Farm

Steamers
Joseph Fisheries

Striped Bass
Joseph Fisheries

StrawberryBanner

New Rochelle Farmers Market
Larchmont Farmers Market
Rye Farmers Market
Fridays 8:30 am-2:30 pm
North Avenue at Huguenot Park,
in front of NRHS
 Saturdays 8:30 am-1:00 pm
Metro North parking lot off of Chatsworth Ave
Sundays 8:30 am-2:00 pm
Parking lot on Theodore Fremd Ave, behind Purchase St. stores


Headed elsewhere this weekend? Find other Down to Earth Markets: CLICK HERE for details.

Builders increased building activity in April | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Builders increased building activity in April to a level not seen since November 2007. Total starts increased 20.2% from March to April to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.135 million. The increase was broad based with a 16.7% increase in single-family starts to a level of 733,000, the highest since January 2008, and multifamily (2 or more units in the structure) increase of 27.2% to an annual rate of 402,000.

Some of the increase in the total and both sectors was due to poor readings in February and March due to particularly cold and snow-laden weather. But the increases, particularly in the single-family market, are also indicative of the continued healing taking place. Home buyers have been reluctant to buy until there is a clear sign that the economy, and more particularly their own future, is more positive. As employment grows and some wages increase and as home equity improves, some of those households break out of their concerns and are beginning to shop for a new home.

Permits were also up suggesting the positive trend will continue. Total permits rose 10.1% to 1.143 million units, the highest since December 2007. Single-family permits were up 3.7% from March to 666,000 and multifamily permits totaled 477,000 the highest since April 2006. Apartment construction continues to grow as most newly formed households are turning to renting.

Single-family starts increased in all regions and multifamily starts increased in the West and Northeast and were virtually unchanged in the Midwest. Multifamily starts were down 20% in the South. Single-family permits were up in every region and multifamily permits were up in the Northeast and South and virtually unchanged in the West. Multifamily permits were down 6% in the Midwest.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/05/winter-slump-over/

What Is A Good Credit Score? | Mt Kisco Real Estate

You’ve heard it all before – you need to take care of your credit score like it’s grandma’s prized china or maybe your new cellphone.

But if you’re more of the goal-oriented type, what constitutes a win when it comes to credit score?

How do you know when your score is among the best?

First, a few facts: When you hear the term credit score, most people are referring to your FICO score. Actually, it’s FICO scores. You have three separate scores – one from each of the three major credit reporting bureaus based on the information they have on you. This means that your FICO score from Equifax might be different from your Experian or TransUnion score, but probably not drastically different. It is, you’d better do some investigation.

The highest score possible is 850 while the lowest is 300. In reality, achieving an 850 probably isn’t going to happen. It would take a perfect combination of many factors to get there. A simple lack of negative entries on your credit report isn’t going to result in an 850.

For more on this, read What are the best ways to rebuild my credit score quickly?

What’s the magic number that will get you the best interest rates, payment terms and perks that come from being rated among the best of the best?

According to Anthony Sprauve, director of public relations at FICO, “If you have a FICO score above 760, you’re going to be getting the best rates and opportunities.” How hard is it to get that number? Looking at the averages, it’s no easy task. For people 25 to 34 years of age, the average score is 628. As you get older your score rises. By the time you reach age 45 to 54, the average is 647; at 55-plus, it’s 697.

If those statistics seem a little depressing, don’t worry. Even if you don’t reach that coveted 760 number, it’s not like you’ll have to pay cash for everything the rest of your life. Good Scores for Different Purposes For example, if you’re looking to buy a home, a score of 500 qualifies you for a FHA loan.

Other statistics show that more than 97% of all FHA loans went to people with scores above 620. Just because you qualify doesn’t mean you’ll be approved, but if you exceed that 620 number, your chances are quite good.

Conventional mortgages are hard to get with a score below 620 and some lenders require at least 700. This is why financial gurus advise people who want to buy a home to not miss bill payments or overextend themselves with credit cards or other loans.

You’re going to need stellar credit to become a homeowner in most cases. Also remember that the better your credit score is, the lower the interest rate you’ll be offered. Consider a 30-year mortgage of $200,000 at a fixed rate: According to one data set, the difference in interest rates for people with a 760 score versus a 620 could be 1.6%. That’s $68,000 difference over the life of the mortgage. Recent statistics showed that more than 70% of applicants are approved for car leases, and finding a credit card company to approve you probably won’t be difficult.

In both cases, the higher your score, the better your terms – and the less you’ll pay in interest.

read more…

 

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/120414/what-good-credit-score.asp?partner=YahooSA