Tag Archives: Mt Kisco Homes

New home sales decline | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Contracts for new single-family home sales declined in September, as eroding affordability conditions reduced sales volume. New single-family home sales declined to a significantly lower 553,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, a 5.5% drop from a downwardly revised 585,000 annual rate recorded in August. The sales data are produced by HUD and the Census Bureau.

The weak September estimate was the lowest annual rate since December 2016. It marks a notable retreat from the recent, modest growth trend that had been in place due to solid economic conditions and unmet demographic demand but constrained by rising construction costs due to labor access issues, building material pricing and rising regulatory costs. The drop in monthly sales volume also pushed the months’ supply number to an elevated 7.1, the highest since the summer of 2011.

Despite the softer summer and early fall numbers, total sales for the first nine months of 2019 (485,000) are 3.5% higher than the comparable total for 2017 (469,000). Nonetheless, mirroring declining sales volume for the resale market, higher interest rates, storm disruption effects, and spring and summer hikes in lumber prices have taken a toll on the nation’s building markets, even as macroeconomic conditions remain positive.

Inventory increased in September to 327,000 single-family homes for sale. September saw a notable uptick in homes not-started construction but otherwise listed for sale, rising from 57,000 in August to 64,000 in September (compared to 47,000 in September of 2017). Additionally, sales of homes not started construction were lower on a year-over-year basis (168,000 annual rate in September compared to 185,000 in September of 2017), suggesting the current soft patch is demand-side focused rather than supply-side constrained.

Median new home sales pricing has decreased over the last year as the mix of supply has adjusted. Median new home price was $320,000 in September, compared to $331,500 a year ago. Managing rising construction costs in the months ahead will be a key challenge for housing affordability as input costs increase, although recent declines in lumber prices should help.

For the first nine months of 2018 (and relative to the first nine months of 2017), new home sales were up 9.7% in the Midwest, 4.4% in the South, 3.9% in the West, and down 16.5% in the Northeast, due to tax reform-related effects and affordability concerns.

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New homes sales down 13% year over year | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Sales of new single-family houses in the United States dropped 5.5 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553 thousand in September of 2018, following a downwardly revised 3.0 percent decline in August. August. It is the lowest rate since December 2016, worse than market expectations of 625 thousand. Sales in the Northeast went down to its lowest level since April 2015. Also, sales decreased in the West and in the South. New Home Sales in the United States averaged 650.36 Thousand from 1963 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1389 Thousand in July of 2005 and a record low of 270 Thousand in February of 2011.

United States New Home Sales

US New Home Sales Lowest Since 2016

Sales of new single-family houses in the United States dropped 5.5 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553 thousand in September of 2018, following a downwardly revised 3.0 percent decline in August. It is the lowest rate since December 2016, worse than market expectations of 625 thousand. Sales in the Northeast went down to its lowest level since April 2015. Also, sales decreased in the West and in the South.

Sales declined in the Northeast (-40.6 percent to 19 thousand), its lowest level since April 2015; the West (-12 percent to 139 thousand) and in the South (-1.5 percent to 318 thousand). On the other hand, sales rose 6.9 percent to 77 in the Midwest.
The median sales price of new houses sold was USD 320,000 below USD 331,500 in the same month of the previous year. The average sales price fell to USD 377,200 in September from USD 379,300 a year ago.

The stock of new houses for sale went up 2.8 percent to 327 thousand. This represents a supply of 7.1 months at the current sales rate, up from 6.5 months in August.


Year-on-year, new home sales decreased 13.2 percent.

read more…

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales

Mortgage rates above 5% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

While investors are no doubt wringing their hands over what’s going on in the stock market this week, here’s another thing to fret over: rising mortgage rates.

“What many in 2016 thought would never happen again is now reality,” writes Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog. “A line in the sand has been breached.”

He explained that the average interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) and a 20% down-payment just passed 5% — the highest since 2010, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.See Also

This, however, is not quite the “pain threshold” for the housing market, Richter wrote. No, that number is 6%, but that rate is moving ever closer.

“This is still historically low. It would take rates back to December 2008, when the Fed was kicking off its first round of QE to repress long-term rates and inflate asset prices,” he said. “Beyond that are the now unimaginably high rates of 7% and 8%.” Here’s a chart for some perspective:

Mortgage rates loosely follow the path of the 10-year U.S. Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y, -0.86%  . The spread between the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year comes in around 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points over time. The yield on the benchmark government bond has soared this month to roughly seven-year highs amid worries that increasing inflation will erode the value of fixed-income assets.

“The 10-year yield has moved in two surges so far in this rate-hike cycle, each of them over 1 percentage point, with some back-tracking in between,” Richter wrote. “It appears to have launched ‘Surge 3.’ If it plays out, this surge would push the 10-year beyond 4%. And this would bring the 30-year fixed rate into the neighborhood of 6%.”

“This new mortgage rate environment is meeting home prices across the U.S. that have surged over the past years,” Richter wrote. “Affordability issues, already tough to deal with at 4% and 4.5% and even tougher to deal with at 5%, are going to be much tougher at 6%.”

Consequently, and unsurprisingly, he said the red-hot housing markets, like Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, are most at risk.

“These price increases came on top of the crazy peaks of Housing Bubble 1,” Richter wrote. “So a 6% average 30-year fixed rate in these inflated markets will likely change the equation a lot more than in some of the less inflated markets.”

read more…

www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pain-threshold-approaches-for-the-housing-market-analyst-warns

Housing starts analysis | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Comments on August Housing Starts

 

Earlier: Housing Starts Increased to 1.282 Million Annual Rate in August

Housing starts in August were above expectations,  and starts for June and July were revised up.  Most of the increase, and upward revisions, were due to the multi-family starts that are volatile month-to-month.

The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were up 9.2% in August compared to July (and August starts were revised up), and starts were up 9.4% year-over-year compared to August 2017.

Multi-family starts were down 38% year-over-year, and single family starts were down slightly year-over-year.

This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2017 (blue) and 2018 (red).

image: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QB_1ld2C2zg/W6JFJO03NdI/AAAAAAAAwCw/oMfZl_MNKV4JQQ89VJQniVoY4Ye5wNn3wCLcBGAs/s320/Starts20172018Aug.PNG

Starts Housing 2017 and 2018Click on graph for larger image.

Starts were up 9.4% in August compared to August 2017.

Through eight months, starts are up 6.9% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2017.   That is a decent increase.

Note that 2017 finished strong, so the year-over-year comparisons will be more difficult in Q4.

Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0xhVPfh9cYs/W6JIb4I3CSI/AAAAAAAAwC8/BEcLqA1gitQDc3A9Al4_nRmL5aFh0fUiwCLcBGAs/s320/MultiAug2018.PNG

Multifamily Starts and completionsThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession – but turned down, and has moved sideways recently.  Completions (red line) had lagged behind – however completions and starts are at about the same level now (more deliveries).

It is likely that both starts and completions, on rolling 12 months basis, will now move mostly sideways.

As I’ve been noting for a few years, the significant growth in multi-family starts is behind us – multi-family starts peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR).

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2POZ_G_0KLM/W6JIeSHjiXI/AAAAAAAAwDA/WqiMP6SJVeMzG5uNm7yh_15gaMoqvNRDACLcBGAs/s320/SingleAug2018.PNG

Single family Starts and completionsThe second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions.  The “wide bottom” was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect a couple more years, or more, of increasing single family starts and completions.

Note: Two months ago, in response to numerous articles discussing the “slowing housing market” and some suggesting “housing has peaked”, I wrote: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2). My view – that there will be further growth in housing starts – remains the same.

Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#o2tyGm3q82iFADMX.99

China’s biggest risk may be its property market | Mt Kisco Real Estate

China’s hot real estate market remains a challenge for authorities trying to maintain stable economic growth in the face of trade tensions with the U.S.

In fact, property is the country’s biggest risk in the next 12 months, much greater than the trade war, according to Larry Hu, head of greater China economics at Macquarie. He said he is especially watching whether the real estate market in lower-tier, or smaller, cities will see a downturn in prices or housing starts after recent sharp increases.

Real estate investment accounts for about two-thirds of Chinese household assets, according to wealth manager Noah Holdings. The property market also plays a significant role in local government revenues, bank loans and corporate investment. As a result, a sharp slowdown in the real estate market’s growth and drop in prices would have a negative affect on overall economic growth.

So far, the market has been hot: The average selling price for newly built non-governmental housing in 60 tier-three and tier-four cities tracked by Tospur Real Estate Consulting rose 28.1 percent from January 2016 to May 2018. That’s according to a report last week co-authored by Sheng Songcheng, a counselor to the People’s Bank of China and an adjunct professor at the China Europe International Business School, an educational joint-venture co-founded by the Chinese government and the European Union.

Domestic property prices overall have also been rising for more than three years, the longest streak since 2008, the report said, citing National Bureau of Statistics data.

Property sales

Source: Wind, Macquarie Macro Strategy, August 2018

Last week, Nanjing, a tier-two city, announced a ban on corporate purchases of residential properties, following similar moves to limit speculation by Shanghai and some other cities.

“You do not want to give Jeff Bezos a seven-year head start.”
Hear what else Buffett has to say

That’s a good move for controlling risk, according to Joe Zhou, real estate and investment management firm JLL’s regional director for China capital markets. He said the government is not likely to loosen its policy soon and that prices could decline on average.

However, it’s unclear whether a downturn in China’s property market would necessarily impact overall growth on the same scale. The public still expects property prices to increase because the government has constantly switched between tightening and easing policies, often to prevent a drop in growth, CEIBS’ Sheng said in the report.

Analysts also generally predict authorities will counter tightening measures with stimulus in other parts of the economy such as infrastructure. In the meantime, China’s export-reliant economy also faces pressure from U.S. tariffs and rising trade tensions.

 

read more…

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/china-economy-biggest-risk-may-be-property-market-not-trade-war.html

Mortgage rates average 4.02% | Mt. Kisco Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remaining around four percent for the fifth consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.02 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending May 18, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 4.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.58 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.27 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.81 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.13 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.14 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.80 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 30-year mortgage rate fell 3 basis points this week to 4.02 percent. However, this week’s survey closed prior to Wednesday’s flight to quality. The delayed impact of the associated decline in Treasury yields may push mortgage rates lower in next week’s survey.”

Mortgage Rates Average 3.84% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates falling to their lowest levels since May of this year amid substantial and ongoing global volatility out of China.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending August 27, 2015, down from last week when it averaged 3.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.10 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.06 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.15 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.25 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.90 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.94 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.97 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.62 percent this week with an average 0.3 point, unchanged from last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.39 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for theRegional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Events in China generated eye-catching volatility in equity markets worldwide over the past week. Interest rates also rocked up and down — although to a lesser extent than equities — as investors alternated between flights to quality and bargain hunting among beaten-down stocks. Amidst all this confusion, the 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 3.84 percent, the lowest mark since May and the fifth consecutive week with a rate below 4 percent.”

“Given the recent volatility, mortgage rates could change up or down significantly by the time this report is released. There are indications though that the unsettled state of global markets will make the Fed think twice before taking any action on short-term interest rates in September. If that’s the case, the 30-year mortgage rate may remain subdued in the short-to-medium term, providing support for continued strength in the housing sector. Just this week, new home sales were reported to be up 26 percent year over year.”

Living in your Garden Shed | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Garden sheds are no longer just for storing tools and other things you’d rather hide away. Home dwellers around the world are finding new uses for their backyard outbuildings and making them fit their lifestyles through a wide range of personalized designs. See how these 11 international sheds and cottages have been reimagined for today’s living — be it lounging, dining, working or beekeeping. Which one would suit your backyard best?

Homes are officially being sold at the highest prices, ever | Mt Kisco Realtor

Thanks to rising demand and shrinking supply, the median existing-home price for all housing types reached an all-time high in June.

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, the median existing-homes sales price rose to $236,400, which exceeds the previous peak median sales price set in July 2006 of $230,400.

June’s total also rose 6.5% above June 2014.

In May, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $228,700, which was 7.9% above May 2014.

That marked the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, making June the 40th straight month of year-over-year price gains.

Despite record prices, existing-home sales also reached their highest pace in more than eight years.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.32 million in May.

Sales are now at their highest pace since February 2007 (5.79 million), have increased year-over-year for nine consecutive months and are 9.6% above a year ago (5.01 million).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that buoyed by June’s solid gain in closings, this year’s spring buying season has been the strongest since the crisis began.

“Buyers have come back in force, leading to the strongest past two months in sales since early 2007,” Yun said. “This wave of demand is being fueled by a year-plus of steady job growth and an improving economy that’s giving more households the financial wherewithal and incentive to buy.”

According to NAR’s report, total housing inventory at the end of June rose slightly by 0.9% to 2.30 million existing homes available for sale, which is is 0.4% higher than the same time period a year ago (2.29 million).

Unsold inventory is at a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in May.

“Limited inventory amidst strong demand continues to push home prices higher, leading to declining affordability for prospective buyers,” said Yun. “Local officials in recent years have rightly authorized permits for new apartment construction, but more needs to be done for condominiums and single-family homes.”

According to NAR’s report, the percent share of first-time buyers fell to 30% in June from 32% in May, but remained at or above 30% for the fourth consecutive month.

One year ago, first-time buyers represented 28% of all buyers.

NAR President Chris Polychron said that Realtors are reporting “drastic imbalances” of supply in relation to demand in many metro areas — especially in the West.

“The demand for buying has really heated up this summer, leading to multiple bidders and homes selling at or above asking price,” Polychron said. “Furthermore, tight inventory conditions are being exacerbated by the fact that some homeowners are hesitant to sell because they’re not optimistic they’ll have adequate time to find an affordable property to move into.”

 

read more…

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/34546-homes-are-officially-being-sold-at-the-highest-prices-ever

Mount Kisco Named Among Best Places In New York To Start A Business | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Consumer finance site NerdWallet recently named Mount Kisco the ninth best place to start a business in New York.

Rankings were determined by the following criteria:

  • Average revenue of businesses.
  • Percentage of businesses with paid employees.
  • Businesses per 100 people.
  • Median annual income.
  • Median monthly housing costs.
  • Unemployment rate.

Mount Kisco has more than 17 business per 100 people, which is one of the highest ratios on NerdWallet’s list.

To see the full list, visit: www.nerdwallet.com/blog/small-business/places-start-business-york/.