Tag Archives: Mount Kisco Real Estate

Rates Steady in October as Increases Expected | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Nationally, the contract interest rate on conventional mortgages for home purchase held steady in October 2016. Over the month, the rate on conventional mortgages for home purchase was unchanged at 3.60%, according to data released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Rates on the purchase of previously occupied homes ticked up 1 basis point to 3.62% while rates on new homes fell 2 basis points to 3.54%.

presentation3

The lack of change in mortgage rates overall reported by the FHFA does contrast with the increase in mortgage rates over the month of October in the Mortgage Bankers’ Association’s Mortgage Applications Survey (MAS). This Survey indicates that the contract rate on conventional mortgages rose 5 basis points to 3.72% over the month*. However, the FHFA release more closely parallels results from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). The commitment rate on conventional mortgages ticked up 1 basis point to 3.47% over the month of October*.

Despite some divergence, over the longer term, these 3 series track each other fairly closely. Between 1990 and 2000, the trend in the 3 series matched, although the rates reported by MBA’s MAS and Freddie Mac’s PMMS were more similar while FHFA’s MIRS was often a bit lower. Since 2000, the three series have been in near unison both in its point estimate and the overall trend.

presentation4

The monthly data covers the month of October, but the weekly mortgage rate data for November indicates that rates have clearly begun to rise. As shown by the figure below, between October 28th and November 25th, the contract mortgage rate calculated by the PMMS rose from 3.47% to 4.03%. Over the same period, the MAS increased from 3.75% to 4.23%. Further, mortgage rates are expected to continue climbing in the near term. In its most recent forecast, dated October 28th, NAHB expects the rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage to climb in each of 2017 and 2018.

The increase in mortgage rates follows the increase in the 10-year Treasury note. A rising rate on the 10-year partly reflects the desire to make progress on monetary policy normalization, which has been impeded by a series of unrelated surprises over the course of the year. However, momentum has been building and expectations of an impending increase in the federal funds rate has pushed interest rates modestly higher in the second half of the year.

A more seismic impact from a different set of rate expectations has been set in motion by the surprise outcome of the November election. Proposals for fiscal stimulus via tax cuts, government spending and regulatory reform have led to expectations of stronger economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates. The yield on 10-year Treasury securities has moved up over 50 basis points since November 8.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/12/rates-steady-in-october-as-increases-expected/

Home buyer sentiment index weakens | Mt Kisco Real Estate

A home-buying sentiment index from Fannie Mae weakened for the third straight month in October, a sign the market’s momentum may be faltering.

Fannie’s home purchase sentiment index fell 1.1 percentage points to 81.7. After climbing as high as 86.5 in July, the index has fallen every month since then. It’s now 1.5 percentage points below its level from a year ago.

“Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate,” said Fannie chief economist Doug Duncan in a statement. “Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013.”

The index includes six components from a monthly survey the mortgage buyer FNMA, +0.80%   conducts of 1,000 Americans on owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence.

Slightly more respondents said mortgage rates would rise in the next 12 months – 50% versus 49% in September. While most economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December meeting, it’s not clear how much of an impact that will have on mortgage rates, which remain near all-time lows.

And while the share of respondents expecting home prices to increase fell to 41% in October from 43%, prices seem to be defying gravity.

Respondents in Fannie’s survey expect home purchase prices to appreciate 1.9% over the next 12 months. Data provider CoreLogic forecasts home prices will rise 5.2% over the next 12 years, and many analysts and industry participants believe prices are increasing too quickly for most would-be buyers to keep up.

 

read more…

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-market-becoming-more-pessimistic-fannie-mae-survey-finds-2016-11-07?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Fifth Avenue has record empty space as rents seen too high | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Landlords on Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue are sitting on a record amount of open space as retailers balk at committing to expensive new leases in one of the world’s most prestigious shopping districts.

The availability rate on the famed strip, home to Saks Fifth Avenue and Tiffany & Co.’s flagship store, jumped to 15.9% in the third quarter, up from about 10% a year earlier, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The rate has climbed steadily this year, surpassing the prior peak of 11.3%, set in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The rise of empty storefronts isn’t limited to Fifth Avenue. It’s part of a Manhattan-wide space glut as retailers—buffeted by e-commerce, tepid demand for luxury goods and a strong dollar that’s eroded tourist spending—push back against rents that have soared to records. Leasing costs have increased in tandem with property values in the past five years, outpacing gains in merchandise sales and making it impossible for retailers to run profitable stores at many locations, according to Richard Hodos, a vice chairman at brokerage CBRE Group.

“Property trades are being based on achieving ever-higher rents, and nobody ever really looks at what retailers can afford to pay,” Hodos said. “In some cases, rents need to come down 30% or more for rents to be at levels where retailers are able to make sense of them again.”

Retailers are being squeezed across the U.S. In 2016, malls and other types of shopping venues have been hit by 280 major-brand store closures, totaling 12.8 million square feet (1.2 million square meters), data from Reis show. Another real estate research firm, Green Street Advisors, estimates that several hundred malls around the country will cease operations over the next decade.

Shoppers continue to shift their spending from stores to computers and smartphones. Online sales in the U.S. are expected to reach $398 billion this year, up 16% from 2015, according to research firm eMarketer.

Highest rents

On the stretch of Fifth Avenue from 49th to 60th streets, which commands the world’s highest rents, landlords are asking an average of $3,213 a square foot, up from $2,075 a square foot in 2011, Cushman data show. In the tourist-heavy Times Square area, rents stand at $2,104 a square foot after tripling over a four-year period.

The brokerage’s retail availability rate takes into account vacancies as well as stores occupied by merchants that plan to leave when their leases expire. Retailers that signed leases at high prices in the past several years and are seeking a tenant to sublease their space are also included, according to Steve Soutendijk, an executive director at Cushman.

“Tenants that signed at the absolute top of the market are looking to mitigate their exposure,” he said.

Michael Kors

At 667 Madison Ave., a 24-story tower two blocks from Central Park, Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. is looking to sublease about 5,000 square feet of retail space at the base of the building, according to a person familiar with the plans. The store, with 22-foot (7-meter) ceilings, was the company’s largest when it opened in 2012, the New York Times reported at the time.

Four years later, the London-based fashion house is struggling to pay the rent, said the person, who asked not to be identified because negotiations aren’t public. Michael Kors is seeking a tenant to take over the space on a lease that runs through 2023, the person said.

For a Bloomberg Intelligence primer on the apparel industry, click here.

A spokeswoman for Michael Kors declined to comment. Representatives for the company’s landlord, Hartz Group, didn’t respond to calls and e-mails seeking comment.

Lowering expectations

Property owners with space to fill are starting to lower their expectations, according to Cushman’s Soutendijk. Asking rents in some of Manhattan’s prime shopping districts, including Soho and Times Square, have declined over the course of 2016, Cushman data show.

“I think a lot of landlords are ready to make deals,” Soutendijk said. “Everybody understands there is too much space in the market. We are not in a state of equilibrium.”

Buyers of real estate during the recent boom years may not have much room to maneuver. To justify paying record prices for buildings—and the debt that financed the acquisitions—owners are under pressure to get the highest rents possible, according to Patrick Smith, a vice chairman of the retail brokerage at Jones Lang LaSalle.

“Typically, a building that has been capitalized over the past three years is very rent-sensitive,” he said.

General growth

Landlords who hold out for the right tenant can be left hanging on to empty space for years. A partnership of developer Thor Equities and General Growth Properties, the second-largest owner of U.S. malls, bought 530 Fifth Ave. in 2014. During a conference call with analysts that year, General Growth Chief Executive Officer  Sandeep Mathrani highlighted the property’s large, vacant block as an opportunity to attract new retailers.

No new retail leases have been signed at the property since the acquisition, though three tenants are close to agreements, according to a person with knowledge of the plans. The prospective occupants are in the health-and-beauty and sporting-goods businesses, and will likely pay less in rent than what the building owners had originally aimed for, said the person, who asked not to be identified because negotiations are ongoing.

read more…

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20161026/REAL_ESTATE/161029898/fifth-avenue-has-record-empty-space-as-rents-seen-too-high#utm_medium=email&utm_source=cnyb-realestate&utm_campaign=cnyb-realestate-20161026

Air Conditioning and Heating Systems in New Homes | Mt Kisco Real Estate

The US Census Bureau publishes information on characteristics of new homes started, including air conditioning and heating systems.

In 2015, approximately 93 percent of new homes started in the US had central AC. Central AC has been a common feature in new homes for some time, but its share did grow some between 2000 and 2015, going from 86 percent to 93 percent.

The share of new homes with central AC differs by Census Division (Figure 1). The New England and Pacific divisions, which have more temperate climates, have lower rates of central AC installed (73 percent and 69 percent in 2015, respectively). In contrast, in regions that are hotter and more humid, all or nearly all of the new homes started have central AC: for example, in the South Atlantic (100 percent), East South Central (100 percent), and the West South Central Divisions (99 percent).

ac

Heating Systems

The majority of new homes started in 2015 have either a forced air system (55 percent) or an air or ground source heat pump system (42 percent). The share of new homes that have a heat pump has grown over time, going from 23 percent in 2000 to 42 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, the share with a forced air system has declined, going from 71 percent in 2000 to 55 percent in 2015.

Heat pumps are more prevalent in Southern regions where air and ground temperatures don’t fall as much (Figure 2): East South Central (75 percent), South Atlantic (74 percent), and West South Central (45 percent). They are less so in the West North Central (29 percent), Pacific (14 percent), Middle Atlantic (13 percent), Mountain (12 percent), East North Central (11) percent, and New England divisions (4 percent).

pumps

The majority of new homes started had their heating systems powered by either electricity (40 percent) or natural gas (55 percent) in 2015. In regions such as the Middle Atlantic and New England, where electricity tends to be more expensive, the share of new homes with systems powered by electricity is low (13 and 5 percent, respectively). On the other hand, systems powered by electricity are more common in the south: for example, the South Atlantic (72 percent), the East South Central (71 percent), and the West South Central (41 percent).

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/air-conditioning-and-heating-systems-in-new-homes/

Case-Shiller up 5.1% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index  

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 5.1 percent year-on-year in August of 2016, following a 5 percent increase in July and above market expectations of 5 percent. Portland, Seattle and Denver reported the highest annual gains over each of the last seven months with prices up by 11.7 percent, 11.4 percent and 8.8 percent respectively in August. On a monthly basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index increased 0.4 percent, easing from a 0.6 percent rise in July. Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States averaged 157.24 Index Points from 2000 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 206.52 Index Points in July of 2006 and a record low of 100 Index Points in January of 2000. Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States is reported by the Standard & Poor’s.

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2016-09-27 01:00 PM Jul 5% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
2016-10-25 01:00 PM Aug 5.1% 5% 5% 5%
2016-10-25 01:00 PM Aug 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5%
2016-11-24 02:00 PM Sep 0.4%
2016-11-24 02:00 PM Sep 5.1%
2016-12-29 02:00 PM Oct

 

read more….

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index

Construction Job Openings Decline in August | Mt Kisco Real Estate

The count of unfilled jobs in the overall construction sector fell in August, as residential construction employment hiring accelerated in August and September.

According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) fell to 184,000 in August, after establishing a cycle high of 225,000 in July (post-data revisions). The July estimate represents the highest monthly count of open, unfilled jobs since February 2007.

The open position rate (job openings as a percent of total employment) for August was 2.7%. On a smoothed twelve-month moving average basis, the open position rate for the construction sector held steady at 2.9%, near a cycle high.

The overall trend for open construction jobs has been increasing since the end of the Great Recession. This is consistent with survey data indicating that access to labor remains a top business challenge for builders.

constr-jolts

The construction sector hiring rate, as measured on a twelve-month moving average basis, ticked up to 4.7% in August.

Monthly employment data for September 2016 (the employment count data from the BLS establishment survey are published one month ahead of the JOLTS data) indicate that home builder and remodeler net hiring continued to rebound, as sector employment increased by 15,700 after posting a 14,400 gain in August. These gains come after a recent period of hiring weakness, which has reduced the 6-month moving average of jobs gains for residential construction to just under 4,000.

Residential construction employment now stands at 2.617 million, broken down as 738,000 builders and 1.879 million residential specialty trade contractors.

res-constr-employment

Over the last 12 months home builders and remodelers have added 146,000 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point of industry employment following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 631,000 positions.

 

real estate…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/construction-job-openings-decline-in-august/

Home Improvements Push Residential Construction Spending Up | Mt Kisco Real Estate

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending for July registered a seasonally adjusted rate of $445.5 billion, slightly up from the June downwardly revised estimate.

The monthly gains are largely attributed to the strong growth of private construction spending on home improvements that rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $147.5 billion in July, up by 1.5% since last month. Meanwhile, spending on single-family and multifamily both declined in July. Single-family spending edged down to $238.1 billion in July, down 0.2% over the revised June estimate. After hitting the record-breaking highs earlier this year, multifamily spending decreased to $59.8 billion, down by 0.6% since June. On an annual basis, however, multifamily spending increased by 19.8%. Single-family spending was also 1.7% higher since July 2015.

The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the strong growth in new multifamily construction since 2010, while new single-family construction and home improvements spending have drifted upward at a more modest pace. NAHB anticipates growth for new single-family spending over the rest of 2016, consistent with the modest rise in single-family starts.

Slide1

The pace of private nonresidential construction spending rose 1.7% on a monthly basis, and was 7.1% higher than the July 2015 estimate. The largest contribution to this year-over-year nonresidential spending gain was made by the class of office (30.3% increase), followed by lodging (28.0% increase) and commercial (13.5% increase).

Slide2

read more….

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/09/home-improvements-push-residential-construction-spending-up/

1 Million Rentals on Craigslist | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Craigslist, with its drab gray interface and homemade classifieds, has become the single largest information exchange about the rental housing market in the United States. Its digital bulletin boards have everything: apartment porn for places you’ll never afford, weird fish-eye photos by amateur landlords, queries for every conceivable living space from a spare bunk to a full-sized mansion.

The site touches both the high and low ends of the market — the mom-and-pop operation and the professionally run high-rise — across hundreds of locations. And so Craigslist effectively has more pricing information than commercial providers of rental data do — and offers a more real-time look at the housing market than does the Census Bureau.

“We were looking for something more comprehensive, fresher in time, and smaller in spatial scale,” said Geoff Boeing, a PhD candidate in the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of California at Berkeley. “Craigslist seemed like an obvious candidate.”

Boeing and Paul Waddell of the Urban Analytics Lab at Berkeley scraped millions of listings off the site from the summer of 2014. The data they sorted, described in new research — and mapped below — reveals some familiar patterns: New York, the Bay Area, Boston and energy-booming North Dakota have the highest median rents on offer in the country (in the map, red is the most expensive per square foot). And many of these same markets have a paltry share of listings at price points that would be affordable to moderate-income households.

But the data also gives a fascinating look at the whole spectrum of offerings in each Craigslist market. In this graph from the research, each line represents a single metropolitan area, with its distribution of listings ranging from the cheapest at the left to the most expensive at right ($4 per square foot would be the equivalent of a 1,000-square-foot rental for $4,000 a month, which is not uncommon in New York). The lines peak at the most common per-square-foot price point in each area. As with the above map, the markets with the highest median rents are red; those with the lowest are blue and purple:

That picture shows that affordable cities have more compressed rental markets on Craigslist, while the distance between high- and low-end units in expensive cities is much wider. Detroit is narrow and spiky. New York is low and stretched out. Detroit’s pricey units are not that pricey, and that segment of the market is much smaller.

Put another way: If you have a little extra money to spend on rent in Detroit, it will get you a lot more than in New York, bumping you from near the bottom to the top of the market more easily.

In the Bay Area (which Craigslist defines much more broadly than just the city of San Francisco, encompassing San Jose, Santa Cruz, Oakland and outlying suburbs), there are hardly any units available at the per-square-foot prices that cover most of the Atlanta-area market:

Across all these places, the correlation is striking between the typical rent in a given market and the degree to which the market is compressed.

“We didn’t know what the pattern would look like,” Boeing said. “We didn’t expect it to be so clear.”

This pattern also illustrates why moderate-income households — and even middle-class ones — have such a hard time finding affordable units in expensive cities. There just isn’t much on offer at cheaper prices. And this pattern implies that a subsidy like housing vouchers in low-cost cities may have a lot more power to lift the poor into higher-quality units and safer neighborhoods.

These pictures are not perfectly representative of the entire rental market in each region. Like census rental data, which lags in time, and commercial data, often drawn from large apartment buildings, Craigslist has its limits as a window into the housing market. It may exclude landlords uncomfortable with the Internet (or who believe their potential tenants might be). It captures only asking prices, not agreed-upon rents, so it doesn’t reveal the effect of bidding wars that might drive up rents in high-cost cities.

And the quality of the data is better in some markets than others. The listings in Seattle and Los Angeles, Boeing and Waddell found, tend to have more complete information. In Chicago and New York, listings are more likely to be posted multiple times. New York’s rental market is alsoheavily influenced by brokers, meaning units are less likely to wind up on Craigslist.

Boeing and Waddell originally scraped about 11 million listings off the site, covering everything posted in all the U.S. sub-domains between May and July of 2014. But by the time they deleted duplicate listings and inevitable Craigslist spam (“Apartment of $1!”), and sorted for only units with clear price and square footage data and geolocation, they were down to about 1.5 million listings nationwide.

 

read more….

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/01/what-more-than-1-million-craigslist-rental-listings-tell-us-about-the-housing-market/

Inventory update | Mt Kisco Real Estate

When we publishedWill Sellers Step up the Plate in 2016? “two weeks ago December market report weren’t in yet and it was clearly too early to blow the bugle over the inventory picture for the coming season

The reports are now in and hands are reaching for the nearest brass instruments.  Too many signals from too many sources are not looking good, especially for the mid to lower tier entry-level homes that Millennials need to escape the Rent Trap.

“Insufficient supply levels” is how NAR’s Lawrence Yun characterized the inventory picture when he released December existing home sales.  The headlines last week.  His careful choice of words masked the very serious possibility that inventories at the outset this year could be worse than last or even 20013 when shortages erupted in bubbles across California.

Here’s a quick review of the latest:

sellersbystate

NAR Traffic Report

Seller traffic was broadly “weak” across most states in December, as measured by Sentrilock, the leading lock box system.  Seller traffic was reported to be “strong” only in North Dakota where much residential construction took place as builders anticipated strong housing demand in the wake of the boom in oil production. There was also “very strong” selling activity in Puerto Rico, where significant out-migration is taking place, given the economy’s financial woes.2016-01-25_12-07-38 

NAR Existing Home Sales and Realtor Confidence Index

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 12.3 percent to 1.79 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 3.8 percent lower than a year ago (1.86 million). Unsold inventory is at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in November and the lowest since January 2005 (3.6 months).

Nationally, properties sold in December 2015 were typically on the market 58 days compared to 66 days one year ago.  Fewer days on the market are an indication that inventory remains tight. Short sales were on the market for the longest time at 86 days, while foreclosed properties typically stayed on the market for 68 days. Non-distressed properties were typically on the market for 57 days. Nationally, approximately 32 percent of properties were on the market for less than a month when sold.

Zillow

Active inventories on Zillow in December fell by 7.7 percent from December 2014.  Listings on the site dropped from 1,6012,255 to 1,477,330 (SAAR).

Realtor.com

December median age of inventory was 94 days, which is up 12 percent from November but still down 6 percent year-over-year.

Redfin

Last month (November) prices spiked due to a dearth of properties on the market. In December, there was a three-month supply of homes for sale, a steep slide from the 4.1 months reported in November. The lack of inventory supported a fast market, where the typical home sold in 41 days, a week faster than a year ago.  December listings fell 10.3 percent from November and 5.4 from December 2014.

2016-01-25_12-37-43

Source: Re/Max

Re/Max

The inventory of homes for sale remains very tight in many metros across the country, at a level that is 14.2% lower than December 2014. At the rate of home sales in December, the national Months’ Supply of Inventory was 4.9, down from 5.7 one year ago. A 6.0 months’ supply indicates a market balanced equally between buyers and sellers. The number of homes for sale in December was 12.5% less than in November and 14.2% less than in December last year. The average loss of inventory on a year-over-year basis for 2015 was 12.2%. The highest month supply was seen in Augusta, ME at 14.1 months.  Three metros had a supply less than 2 months, San Francisco with 1.1, Denver, CO 1.8 and Seattle at 1.9 months.

 

read more…

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/inventory-update-get-the-cavalry-ready/

Americans still reluctant to ramp up mortgage borrowing | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Americans are buying more homes and at higher prices, yet new data shows that mortgage debt is little changed.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Thursday that outstanding U.S. mortgage debt slipped 0.7 percent in the April-June quarter to $8.12 trillion. That is up slightly from a year ago and about the same level as three years ago when the housing market bottomed.

The second quarter’s decline occurred even as Americans took out more new mortgages, either to refinance old loans or purchase homes. New mortgages totaled $466 billion in the second quarter, the most in almost two years.

Those trends suggest Americans are paying down mortgage debt at roughly the same pace as new loans are made, evidence that homeowners remain wary of housing-related debt. Total mortgage debt peaked at $9.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2008.

Overall, the New York Fed’s report indicates that there is little sign of a return to bubble-era excesses in mortgage financing, even as the housing market rebounds. Would-be buyers are bidding up prices on a scarce supply of available homes. Sales of existing houses climbed to an eight-year high in June.

And home prices rose nearly 5 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index. They jumped 10 percent in Denver, 9.7 percent in San Francisco and 8.4 percent in Dallas — big increases that are making homeownership increasingly unaffordable for the typical family.

Yet there are many signs in the New York Fed’s report that housing finance is much healthier than before the recession. Just 95,000 people received new foreclosure notices in the second quarter, the fewest in the 16-year history of the data. And total

And in another sign of caution, total borrowing on home-equity lines of credit fell $11 billion in the second quarter, to $499 billion. That’s far below the peak of $714 billion six years ago.

The amount of new mortgages has risen for four straight quarters, the New York Fed said, after falling to a 14-year low of $286 billion in last year’s second quarter.

Several trends have offset those increases to keep overall mortgage debt mostly unchanged, according to economists at the New York Fed. A wave of refinancing has lowered borrowing rates, allowing homeowners to pay down more principal each month and less interest. Many homebuyers are making larger down payments. And the proportion of investors and other buyers paying cash has been elevated for most of the economic recovery.

 

read more…

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-mortgage-debt-little-changed-150050678.html