Tag Archives: Mount Kisco NY Homes

Home buyer sentiment index weakens | Mt Kisco Real Estate

A home-buying sentiment index from Fannie Mae weakened for the third straight month in October, a sign the market’s momentum may be faltering.

Fannie’s home purchase sentiment index fell 1.1 percentage points to 81.7. After climbing as high as 86.5 in July, the index has fallen every month since then. It’s now 1.5 percentage points below its level from a year ago.

“Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate,” said Fannie chief economist Doug Duncan in a statement. “Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013.”

The index includes six components from a monthly survey the mortgage buyer FNMA, +0.80%   conducts of 1,000 Americans on owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence.

Slightly more respondents said mortgage rates would rise in the next 12 months – 50% versus 49% in September. While most economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December meeting, it’s not clear how much of an impact that will have on mortgage rates, which remain near all-time lows.

And while the share of respondents expecting home prices to increase fell to 41% in October from 43%, prices seem to be defying gravity.

Respondents in Fannie’s survey expect home purchase prices to appreciate 1.9% over the next 12 months. Data provider CoreLogic forecasts home prices will rise 5.2% over the next 12 years, and many analysts and industry participants believe prices are increasing too quickly for most would-be buyers to keep up.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-market-becoming-more-pessimistic-fannie-mae-survey-finds-2016-11-07?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Case-Shiller up 5.1% | Mt Kisco Real Estate

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index  

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 5.1 percent year-on-year in August of 2016, following a 5 percent increase in July and above market expectations of 5 percent. Portland, Seattle and Denver reported the highest annual gains over each of the last seven months with prices up by 11.7 percent, 11.4 percent and 8.8 percent respectively in August. On a monthly basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index increased 0.4 percent, easing from a 0.6 percent rise in July. Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States averaged 157.24 Index Points from 2000 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 206.52 Index Points in July of 2006 and a record low of 100 Index Points in January of 2000. Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States is reported by the Standard & Poor’s.

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2016-09-27 01:00 PM Jul 5% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
2016-10-25 01:00 PM Aug 5.1% 5% 5% 5%
2016-10-25 01:00 PM Aug 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5%
2016-11-24 02:00 PM Sep 0.4%
2016-11-24 02:00 PM Sep 5.1%
2016-12-29 02:00 PM Oct

 

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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index

Construction Job Openings Decline in August | Mt Kisco Real Estate

The count of unfilled jobs in the overall construction sector fell in August, as residential construction employment hiring accelerated in August and September.

According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) fell to 184,000 in August, after establishing a cycle high of 225,000 in July (post-data revisions). The July estimate represents the highest monthly count of open, unfilled jobs since February 2007.

The open position rate (job openings as a percent of total employment) for August was 2.7%. On a smoothed twelve-month moving average basis, the open position rate for the construction sector held steady at 2.9%, near a cycle high.

The overall trend for open construction jobs has been increasing since the end of the Great Recession. This is consistent with survey data indicating that access to labor remains a top business challenge for builders.

constr-jolts

The construction sector hiring rate, as measured on a twelve-month moving average basis, ticked up to 4.7% in August.

Monthly employment data for September 2016 (the employment count data from the BLS establishment survey are published one month ahead of the JOLTS data) indicate that home builder and remodeler net hiring continued to rebound, as sector employment increased by 15,700 after posting a 14,400 gain in August. These gains come after a recent period of hiring weakness, which has reduced the 6-month moving average of jobs gains for residential construction to just under 4,000.

Residential construction employment now stands at 2.617 million, broken down as 738,000 builders and 1.879 million residential specialty trade contractors.

res-constr-employment

Over the last 12 months home builders and remodelers have added 146,000 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point of industry employment following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 631,000 positions.

 

real estate…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/construction-job-openings-decline-in-august/

Inventory update | Mt Kisco Real Estate

When we publishedWill Sellers Step up the Plate in 2016? “two weeks ago December market report weren’t in yet and it was clearly too early to blow the bugle over the inventory picture for the coming season

The reports are now in and hands are reaching for the nearest brass instruments.  Too many signals from too many sources are not looking good, especially for the mid to lower tier entry-level homes that Millennials need to escape the Rent Trap.

“Insufficient supply levels” is how NAR’s Lawrence Yun characterized the inventory picture when he released December existing home sales.  The headlines last week.  His careful choice of words masked the very serious possibility that inventories at the outset this year could be worse than last or even 20013 when shortages erupted in bubbles across California.

Here’s a quick review of the latest:

sellersbystate

NAR Traffic Report

Seller traffic was broadly “weak” across most states in December, as measured by Sentrilock, the leading lock box system.  Seller traffic was reported to be “strong” only in North Dakota where much residential construction took place as builders anticipated strong housing demand in the wake of the boom in oil production. There was also “very strong” selling activity in Puerto Rico, where significant out-migration is taking place, given the economy’s financial woes.2016-01-25_12-07-38 

NAR Existing Home Sales and Realtor Confidence Index

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 12.3 percent to 1.79 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 3.8 percent lower than a year ago (1.86 million). Unsold inventory is at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in November and the lowest since January 2005 (3.6 months).

Nationally, properties sold in December 2015 were typically on the market 58 days compared to 66 days one year ago.  Fewer days on the market are an indication that inventory remains tight. Short sales were on the market for the longest time at 86 days, while foreclosed properties typically stayed on the market for 68 days. Non-distressed properties were typically on the market for 57 days. Nationally, approximately 32 percent of properties were on the market for less than a month when sold.

Zillow

Active inventories on Zillow in December fell by 7.7 percent from December 2014.  Listings on the site dropped from 1,6012,255 to 1,477,330 (SAAR).

Realtor.com

December median age of inventory was 94 days, which is up 12 percent from November but still down 6 percent year-over-year.

Redfin

Last month (November) prices spiked due to a dearth of properties on the market. In December, there was a three-month supply of homes for sale, a steep slide from the 4.1 months reported in November. The lack of inventory supported a fast market, where the typical home sold in 41 days, a week faster than a year ago.  December listings fell 10.3 percent from November and 5.4 from December 2014.

2016-01-25_12-37-43

Source: Re/Max

Re/Max

The inventory of homes for sale remains very tight in many metros across the country, at a level that is 14.2% lower than December 2014. At the rate of home sales in December, the national Months’ Supply of Inventory was 4.9, down from 5.7 one year ago. A 6.0 months’ supply indicates a market balanced equally between buyers and sellers. The number of homes for sale in December was 12.5% less than in November and 14.2% less than in December last year. The average loss of inventory on a year-over-year basis for 2015 was 12.2%. The highest month supply was seen in Augusta, ME at 14.1 months.  Three metros had a supply less than 2 months, San Francisco with 1.1, Denver, CO 1.8 and Seattle at 1.9 months.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/inventory-update-get-the-cavalry-ready/

Homes are officially being sold at the highest prices, ever | Mt Kisco Realtor

Thanks to rising demand and shrinking supply, the median existing-home price for all housing types reached an all-time high in June.

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, the median existing-homes sales price rose to $236,400, which exceeds the previous peak median sales price set in July 2006 of $230,400.

June’s total also rose 6.5% above June 2014.

In May, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $228,700, which was 7.9% above May 2014.

That marked the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, making June the 40th straight month of year-over-year price gains.

Despite record prices, existing-home sales also reached their highest pace in more than eight years.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.32 million in May.

Sales are now at their highest pace since February 2007 (5.79 million), have increased year-over-year for nine consecutive months and are 9.6% above a year ago (5.01 million).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that buoyed by June’s solid gain in closings, this year’s spring buying season has been the strongest since the crisis began.

“Buyers have come back in force, leading to the strongest past two months in sales since early 2007,” Yun said. “This wave of demand is being fueled by a year-plus of steady job growth and an improving economy that’s giving more households the financial wherewithal and incentive to buy.”

According to NAR’s report, total housing inventory at the end of June rose slightly by 0.9% to 2.30 million existing homes available for sale, which is is 0.4% higher than the same time period a year ago (2.29 million).

Unsold inventory is at a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in May.

“Limited inventory amidst strong demand continues to push home prices higher, leading to declining affordability for prospective buyers,” said Yun. “Local officials in recent years have rightly authorized permits for new apartment construction, but more needs to be done for condominiums and single-family homes.”

According to NAR’s report, the percent share of first-time buyers fell to 30% in June from 32% in May, but remained at or above 30% for the fourth consecutive month.

One year ago, first-time buyers represented 28% of all buyers.

NAR President Chris Polychron said that Realtors are reporting “drastic imbalances” of supply in relation to demand in many metro areas — especially in the West.

“The demand for buying has really heated up this summer, leading to multiple bidders and homes selling at or above asking price,” Polychron said. “Furthermore, tight inventory conditions are being exacerbated by the fact that some homeowners are hesitant to sell because they’re not optimistic they’ll have adequate time to find an affordable property to move into.”

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/34546-homes-are-officially-being-sold-at-the-highest-prices-ever

Mortgage Rates at 3.87% | Mount Kisco Real Estate

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained at 3.87% in the week that ended June 4, matching the prior week’s reading, which was the highest since the end of 2014, according to a Thursday report from federally controlled mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac.

A year ago, the 30-year rate was at 4.14%. A record low of 3.31% for the 30-year mortgage was hit in November 2012.

The average rate for the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.08% in the latest week from 3.11% in the prior week.

Meanwhile, the rate for a 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage rose to 2.96% from 2.90%. The rate for a 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM jumped up to 2.59% from 2.50%.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/30-year-mortgage-rate-remains-highest-since-late-2014-2015-06-04

Builders increased building activity in April | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Builders increased building activity in April to a level not seen since November 2007. Total starts increased 20.2% from March to April to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.135 million. The increase was broad based with a 16.7% increase in single-family starts to a level of 733,000, the highest since January 2008, and multifamily (2 or more units in the structure) increase of 27.2% to an annual rate of 402,000.

Some of the increase in the total and both sectors was due to poor readings in February and March due to particularly cold and snow-laden weather. But the increases, particularly in the single-family market, are also indicative of the continued healing taking place. Home buyers have been reluctant to buy until there is a clear sign that the economy, and more particularly their own future, is more positive. As employment grows and some wages increase and as home equity improves, some of those households break out of their concerns and are beginning to shop for a new home.

Permits were also up suggesting the positive trend will continue. Total permits rose 10.1% to 1.143 million units, the highest since December 2007. Single-family permits were up 3.7% from March to 666,000 and multifamily permits totaled 477,000 the highest since April 2006. Apartment construction continues to grow as most newly formed households are turning to renting.

Single-family starts increased in all regions and multifamily starts increased in the West and Northeast and were virtually unchanged in the Midwest. Multifamily starts were down 20% in the South. Single-family permits were up in every region and multifamily permits were up in the Northeast and South and virtually unchanged in the West. Multifamily permits were down 6% in the Midwest.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/05/winter-slump-over/

Flips Flopped in 2014 | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Don’t tell the HGTV producers who find audiences for their endless stream of shows devoted to house flipping, but it’s looking like flipping is losing popularity.

RealtyTrac® reports that last year flips fell to their lowest market share since 2011.  Some 136,269 U.S. single family homes were flipped in 2014, 5.4 percent of all single family home sales during the year.

A total of 32,578 U.S. single family homes were flipped in the fourth quarter, representing 5.3 percent of all single family home sales during the quarter. The 5.3 percent share of flips in the fourth quarter was up 11 percent from the previous quarter but still down 12 percent from a year ago.

Flips are dwindling despite improving returns.  The average gross profit — the difference between the purchase price and flipped price — for completed flips of single family homes in the fourth quarter was $65,993, representing a 37.1 percent gross return. That was up from an average gross profit of $65,285 representing a 36.5 percent gross return in the third quarter, and an average gross profit of $63,017 representing a 36.4 percent gross return in the fourth quarter of 2013.

“Investors have picked much of the low-hanging fruit when it comes to home flipping over the past three years since home prices bottomed out in the first quarter of 2012,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “As home price appreciation slows to single digits in most markets, flippers need to be more selective and creative about the properties and neighborhoods they target.

“In many cases the best neighborhoods for profitable flipping in a slower-appreciating market are those that come with a higher risk because of location and condition of properties, but also have a bigger upside if investors are able to correctly predict the path of progress in the region,” Blomquist added. “It appears that most investors completing flips in the fourth quarter were able to do just that. Even though the share of flips was down from a year ago during the quarter, the average gross return per flip increased.”

Zips with highest share of Q4 flips in Detroit, Los Angeles, Memphis, Miami
Among zip codes with at least 10 single family home flips completed in the fourth quarter of 2014, there were 10 where flips represented 25 percent or more of all single family home sales during the quarter. Metropolitan statistical areas with top 10 zip codes for share of flips in the fourth quarter were Detroit, Los Angeles, Memphis, Miami, Jacksonville, Florida, Tampa and San Diego.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/02/flips-flopped-in-2014/

Here’s the budget of a 27-year-old who owns 2 houses | Mt Kisco Real Estate

After graduating college in 2009, Brian Maida lived with his parents for about two years in order to save the money to buy his first home.

He bought a second one in 2013.

Maida, 27, lives in New Jersey and works in business development and sales. He says it only took about $14,000 to buy that first place, which he now rents out for supplemental income.

“I was able to refinance that loan within a year and show them that I had 20% equity based on their appraisal, and that lowered my payment by almost 20%,” Maida explains. “You can get pretty good deals on real estate if you look hard and negotiate.”

He bought his second place, where he now lives, in  a short sale with  5% down, and he currently pays private mortgage insurance (PMI).

In fact, Maida devotes the bulk of his monthly budget to his properties, and plans to buy a third property in March of this year. “I liquidated my 401(K) and Roth IRA,” he explains. “I no longer believe in investing in the stock market — I follow it too much. I would rather buy real estate and leverage my money. Right now I own about $250,000 in real estate, and I put in maybe $40,000.”

Below, Maida shares his monthly budget based on his $5,656 monthly income ($4,306 from his salary, $1,350 rental income from his investment property). He budgets according to take-home pay from his base salary, plus paycheck withdrawals like medical insurance but excluding taxes. He chooses to list out the withdrawals in case he ever becomes a contractor in the future. “I don’t even put commission on here, because in my role, I could make $100,000 one year and $200,000 the next,” he adds. “All the commission is extra money I’d save.”

All numbers are rounded to the nearest dollar.

View gallery

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maida budget

Brian Maida

To simplify the visual, we’ve abbreviated Maida’s primary home, where he lives, as “PH.” We’ve also condensed the costs of his investment property ($1,307) into one category that includes his separate payments for the mortgage, taxes, HOA fee, the landlord/tenant policy, and any other costs.

The “pets” category includes two categories that Maida lists separately for his two dogs and a cat: food/treats/toys/vet ($200) and walking/sitting ($60). His “accident insurance” category includes both his personal death and dismemberment coverage and his enrollment in his employer’s legal plan.

Vegaprocity” includes costs associated with the vegan website Maida runs on the side. In fact, he provides a downloadable budgeting template on his site.

His monthly costs, which he splits into fixed and variable categories, add up to $4,674 a month, leaving a difference of $982. “If stick to this budget, I save about $12,000 a year,” Maida explains. “My tax return is another approximately $3,000 — that’s $15,000 a year.  Next, I’d like to buy a house for $250,000 to $500,000.”

 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-budget-27-old-owns-160000217.html