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Katonah Real Estate

More First-timers Than Expected Are Now Buying Homes | Katonah Real Estate

First-time buyers may be entering the U.S. home market in greater numbers than industry watchers had assumed.

Nearly half of sales in the past year went to people who were buying their first home, according to a survey released Tuesday by the real estate firm Zillow. That’s a much higher proportion of the market than some other industry estimates had indicated.

Zillow’s survey results suggest that this year’s growth in home sales has come largely from a wave of couples in their 30s, who are the most common first-time buyers. If that trend were to hold, it could raise hopes that today’s vast generation of 18-to-34-year-old millennials will help support the housing market as more of them move into their 30s.

That’s among the findings in a 168-page report by Seattle-based Zillow. Its survey also found that home ownership is increasingly the domain of the college-educated. And it indicated that older Americans who are seeking to downsize are paying premiums for smaller houses.

Here’s a breakdown of Zillow’s findings:

— First-time buyers make up a larger chunk of the housing market than the real estate industry has generally thought. Forty-seven percent of purchases in the past year went to first-time buyers. Their median age was 33. By contrast, surveys from the National Association of Realtors have indicated that first-timers account for only about 30 percent of all buyers.

The difference between the two surveys may stem from their methodologies. The NAR has used a mail-based survey for its annual figures, while Zillow used an online survey that might have generated more responses from younger buyers.

— No college? Dwindling chance of homeownership

It’s become harder to realize the dream of home ownership without a college degree. Sixty-two percent of buyers have at least a four-year college degree. Census figures show that just 33 percent of the U.S. adults graduated from college. The gap between the education levels of homebuyers and the broader U.S. population indicates that workers with only a high school degree are becoming less likely to own a home.

This is a major shift for the middle class. Just 12 percent of homeowners in 1986 were college graduates, according to government figures. The trend is driven in part by falling incomes for people with only a high school degree.

— Millennial home buyers are increasingly Hispanic

Out of the 74 million U.S. households that own their homes, a sizable majority — 77 percent — are white. But these demographics are changing fast. Only 66 percent of millennial homeowners are white. The big gains have come from Latinos, who make up 17 percent of millennial homeowners but just 9 percent of all homeowners.

Asians also make up a greater share of millennials. This means that as today’s millennial generation ages, the housing market may look considerably more diverse than it does now.

— Older Americans aren’t just downsizing; they’re also upgrading.

The so-called “silent generation” — those ages 65 to 75— bought homes in the past year with a median size of just 1,800 square feet, about 220 square feet smaller than the homes they sold. But that smaller new home still cost more. These retirement-age buyers paid a median of $250,000, nearly $30,000 more than the home they sold. In some cases, the higher purchase price likely reflects the profits from the sale of their previous home, in other cases a desire by upscale buyers for luxury finishes and amenities.

— Starter homes are no longer popular.

When millennials buy, they’re leapfrogging past the traditional, smaller starter home. This younger generation paid a median of $217,000 for a 1,800-square-foot house. That median is nearly identical to what older generations buy.

 

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http://www.newsmax.com/Personal-Finance/zillow-housing-survey-homes-buyers/2016/10/18/id/753992/

Hottest U.S. Real Estate Markets for September | Katonah Real Estate

Hottest markets for September 2016

Mindy_Nicole_Photography/iStock; uschools/iStock
jjwithers/iStock; Aneese/iStock; Greg Chow

September would ordinarily be the end of the high season for residential real estate, with schools back in session across the U.S. and families reluctant to uproot. But hold on—this is no ordinary year, and a preliminary review of the month’s data on realtor.com®shows that September is shaping up to be the hottest fall in a decade.

Homes for sale in September are moving 4% more quickly than last year, and that’s even as prices hit record highs. The median home price maintained August’s level of $250,000, which is 9% higher than one year ago. That’s a new high for September.

“The fundamental trends we have been seeing all year remain solidly in place as we enter the slower time of the year,” says realtor.com’s chief economist, Jonathan Smoke. That means short supply and high demand, which results in high prices.

Granted, September saw a bit of the typical seasonal slowdown, with properties spending five more days on market (77) than last month—but that’s still three days faster than last year at this time. At the same time, fewer homes are coming on the market, further diminishing supply. Total inventory remains considerably lower than one year ago, leaving buyers with fewer options in a market that has already been pretty tight.

In gauging which real estate markets were seeing the most activity, our economic data team took into account the number of days that homes spend on the market (a measure of supply) and the number of views that listings on our site get (a measure of demand). The result is a list of the nation’s hottest real estate markets, where inventory moves 23 to 43 days more quickly than the national average, and listings get 1.4 to 3.7 more views than the national average.

New to the top 20 this month is Grand Rapids, MI. Like other cities on the list, “Grand Rapids” includes the greater metropolitan area, which in this case takes in Wyoming, MI. Similarly, our No. 1 market, “San Francisco,” also includes nearby Oakland and Hayward.

The hot list

Rank
(September)
20 Hottest Markets Rank
(August)
Rank Change
1 San Francisco, CA 4 3
2 Vallejo, CA 1 -1
3 Denver, CO 3 0
4 Dallas, TX 2 -2
5 San Diego, CA 6 1
6 Stockton, CA 5 -1
7 Fort Wayne, IN 11 4
8 Sacramento, CA 10 2
9 San Jose, CA 10 2
10 Waco, TX 14 5
11 Modesto, CA 13 2
12 Columbus, OH 7 -5
13 Yuba City, CA 12 -1
14 Detroit, MI 9 -5
15 Santa Rosa, CA 19 4
16 Colorado Springs, CO 16 0
17 Santa Cruz, CA 17 0
18 Kennewick, WA 18 0
19 Nashville, TN 20 1
20 Grand Rapids, MI 21 1

 

 

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http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/the-hottest-u-s-real-estate-markets-for-september-2016/?is_wp_site=1

How New Home Buyers Financed Their Homes in 2015 | Katonah Real Estate

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that non-conventional forms of financing new single-family home purchases remained elevated in 2015, accounting for more than a third of the market.

Looking at new single-family homes started in 2015, the South Atlantic division was most dependent on non-conventional financing, with its share exceeding 40% of the market. The West South Central and New England divisions registered similarly high shares but relied on very different types of non-conventional financing. In New England, a third of all homes started in 2015 were cash purchases, while loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) accounted for less than 3% of the market. In contrast, homebuyers in the South Atlantic and West South Central division relied more heavily on FHA- and VA-backed loans that together accounted for more than 26% and 21% of the market, respectively.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the East South Central division where only 16% of new homes started in 2015 were financed using non-conventional methods. This share is less than half of the US average of 34.5%, making it the lowest share of non-conventional financing in the nation.

The Pacific and Mountain divisions registered shares of non-conventional financing methods close to the US average, 34% and 36%, respectively. In the middle Atlantic division, one in four single-family homes started in 2015 was financed by non-conventional means. While in the West North Central and East North Central divisions, only one in five new home buyers relied on non-conventional financing.
SOC_financing15
For homes started in 2015, the share of mortgages insured by the FHA bumped up, especially in the Pacific and South Atlantic divisions where FHA loans accounted for 19% and 18%, respectively. This was largely due to a reduction in FHA mortgage insurance premiums implemented at the start of 2015. As a result, FHA-backed loans regained their status as the most prevalent form of non-conventional financing of new home purchases – the status they temporarily lost to cash purchases a year earlier following the implemented decline in the 2014 FHA loan limits.

The share of VA-backed loans remained relatively stable in 2015, accounting for just over 6% of the market. However, their share was almost twice as high, approaching 12%, in the Mountain division, the only region in the nation where the share of VA-backed loans exceeded that of cash purchases and other types of financing combined.

The share of cash purchases declined in 2015, most dramatically in the Mountain division, where cash purchases lost half of its market share. Overall, cash purchases accounted for 10 percent of the market. New England registered the nation’s highest share, with one in three new homes started in 2015 purchased with cash. The Middle Atlantic and East North Central divisions registered the second and third highest shares – 15% and 14%, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum is the East South Central division where less than 7% of single-family starts were financed with cash.

The high prevalence of cash financing in the New England, East North Central and Middle Atlantic divisions can be partially explained by the popularity of custom homebuilding in these divisions, with all three claimingthe top three custom home market shares in 2015. Custom homes are more likely to be financed with cash, especially if built by the owner acting as the general contractor. In 2015, more than 36% of custom homes built by the owner were financed with cash, while less than 7 percent of spec homes were purchased with cash.
Financing
Other types of non-conventional financing methods – such as the Rural Housing Service, Habitat for Humanity, loans from individuals, state or local government mortgage-backed bonds and other – are particularly popular in the West South Central division (7.6%) and South Atlantic division (5.7%), both exceeding the national average of 4.5%.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/how-new-home-buyers-financed-their-homes-in-2015/

Housing starts up 12.36%, down in Northeast | Katonah Real Estate

New Housing Units Started

(Seasonally adj. at Annual Rate, in % Y/Y)

On May 2016 Total housing units starts were at seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,164,000 units, an decrease of 8,000 units or -0.68 % from 1,172,000 units April 2016 and an increase of 12.36 % from 1,036,000 units May 2015.

New Housing Units Started
(Seasonally adj. at Annual Rate, in % Y/Y)
May 2016
prel.
April 2016
prel.
March 2016
prel.
Feb. 2016
prel.
Jan. 2016
prel.
Total 12.36 % 0.6 % 18.68 % 35.23 % 4.35 %
In structures Single-family units 12.35 % 8.21 % 21.84 % 42.5 % 11.19 %
In structures with 2 – 4 units 95.71 % 16.67 % -57.14 % 71.43 % 260 %
In structures with 5 units or more -2.09 % -12.85 % 17.42 % 19.87 % -11.61 %
Northeast -41.01 % -29.1 % 43.56 % 70.21 % 37.04 %
Midwest 33.56 % 12.65 % 21.43 % 117.53 % 0.65 %
South 23.84 % 18.23 % 8.43 % 19.07 % 9.87 %
West 6.72 % -18.69 % 29.85 % 29.71 % -15.75 %

Sales of unbuilt homes hover near a 10-year high | Katonah Real Estate

The latest new home sales report presents a more positive forecast on the future of today’s current inventory crisis after several industry reports give strong concerns over the market’s daunting lack of inventory.

In Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin’s analysis of Wednesday’s new home sales report, he explained that the share of new home sales not started, in other words homes purchased off a plan, hovers near a 10-year high.

“Why? The inventory of existing homes continues to fall. Low existing inventory likely pushes prospective buyers away from existing homes towards new homes, and as new home sales rise, this allows builders to sell more new homes off plan,” McLaughlin said.

Click to enlarge

new home sales one

(Source: Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin)

The housing market can’t seem to get past the inventory shortage that keeps penetrating into all crevasses of the industry. And while this won’t change this year, there may be hope for next year as builders start to play catch-up, a Fitch Ratings report recently said.

The National Association of Realtors’ latest report posted that in January, total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slightly increased 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million, up from a downwardly revised 5.45 million in December.

“The housing market has shown promising resilience in recent months, but home prices are still rising too fast because of ongoing supply constraints,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said on the existing-home sales report.

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller report echoed similar inventory concerns, with Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell commenting on it saying, “There are a lot of economic forces at work behind the scenes that will have a big impact on housing as we enter the busy home-shopping season. Low inventory is a factor in almost every market, so buyers should be prepared for a limited selection in the months to come.”

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development report, sales of new single-family houses in January 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 494,000. This is 9.2% below the revised December rate of 544,000 and is 5.2% below the January 2015 estimate of 521,000.

However, McLaughlin cautioned, “All new home sales numbers from the U.S. Census are extremely volatile: the margin of error is wide and often includes zero, which means we can’t be certain whether the month-over-month or year-over-year changes actually increased, decreased, or stayed flat.”

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36361-can-new-home-sales-end-the-housing-inventory-crisis?eid=311691494&bid=1320985

Boomers Prefer Suburbs and Cul de Sacs | Katonah Real Estate

NAHB’s recently published Housing Preferences of the Boomer Generation shows that homebuyers in the Baby Boom Generation want a suburban neighborhood consisting of all single-family detached homes more often than any other community feature (of the 19 listed), and nearly 80 percent prefer a cul de sac over efficient traffic flow when given the choice.

These results are based on a survey conducted by NAHB in September 2015 that collected data from 4,326 recent and prospective homebuyers, stratified and weighted to be representative of the age, geography, income, and race and ethnicity of homeowners in the U.S.  Although the published study emphasizes housing preferences of Boomers (those born from 1946 to 1964), for comparison purposes the survey also captured buyers in other generations (including Millennials born in 1980 or later, Gen X’ers born 1965 to 1979, and Seniors born in 1945 or earlier).

Among other things, the survey asked buyers to rate 19 community features on the following four-tier scale:

  • Do not want – not likely to buy a home in a community with this feature.
  • Indifferent – wouldn’t influence decision.
  • Desirable – would be seriously influenced to purchase a home because this design or feature was included.
  • Essential/Must have – unlikely to purchase a home in a community unless it has this feature.

For home buyers in the Boomer generation, the most desired of these features is a “typically suburban” community (defined as consisting of all single-family detached homes) rated desirable or essential by 70 percent of Boomer respondents.  After that comes a group of three community features rated essential or desirable by 61 to 64 percent of Boomers: being near retail space, a park area and walking/jogging trails.

Boomer Pref Fig 01A

At the other end of the scale, tennis courts, high density (defined as smaller lots and attached/ or multifamily buildings), other mixed use (homes near office or other commercial buildings, to distinguish it from homes near retail space like grocery or drug stores), a golf course, baseball or soccer fields, and daycare center are relatively unpopular, each being rated essential or desirable by fewer than one-fifth of Boomers.

Compared to buyers in other generations there are many similarities in the way Boomers rank the top community features.  Seven community features (typically suburban, park area, near retail space, walking/jogging trails, a lake, swimming pool, and exercise room) make the top eight irrespective of the home buyer’s age.

Top 8 by Gen

The main generational differences in the rankings are 1) playgrounds are particularly important for buyers in the Millennial generation, but fall entirely out of the top eight for Boomers and Seniors; and 2) an outdoor maintenance service becomes relatively more important for older buyers, moving all the way up to number five on the list for Seniors.

 Another section of the NAHB survey asked home buyers about street design trade-offs, which can be useful in helping inform land planning decisions.  A number of advocacy groups (e.g., the National Complete Streets Coalition) recommend interconnected streets for efficent traffic flow, implying that designs like cul de sacs that seek to limit through traffic should be avoided.  But home buyers in the Boomer generation have the opposite opinion: 78 percent prefer the cul de sac or other street design with limited traffic flow—more than triple the 22 percent who prefer the alternative of a home on a continuous street with more efficient traffic flow.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/02/boomers-prefer-suburbs-and-cul-de-sacs/

Case-Shiller Home Price Index rises | Katonah Real Estate

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index  Forecast 2016-2020

Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States is expected to be 182.91 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States to stand at 179.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is projected to trend around 160.18 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index – was last predicted on Tuesday, January 26, 2016.
United States Housing Last Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Building Permits 1232 1245 1249 1254 1259 1310
Housing Starts 1149 1165 1173 1182 1192 1288
New Home Sales 490 491 499 503 507 567
Pending Home Sales 2.7 1.99 1.7 1.54 1.45 1.33
Existing Home Sales 5460 5546 5402 5396 5378 5115
Construction Spending -0.4 0.22 0.27 0.29 0.3 0.31
Housing Index 0.5 0.48 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.31
Nahb Housing Market Index 60 59.27 58.97 58.48 58.01 53.23
Mortgage Rate 4.06 4.6 4.9 5.1 4.23 6.5
Mortgage Applications 9 0.78 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47
Home Ownership Rate 63.7 63.7 63.7 63.7 63.7 63.7
Case Shiller Home Price Index 183 183 182 181 180 160

 

 

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No Relief in Sight on Rents | Katonah NY Real Estate

The long anticipated slowdown in rent increases from record numbers of new multi-family projects opening for business has yet to materialize as rental demand drove rents to record levels in the first three quarters of 2015, sending the national apartment market soaring to its strongest year in a decade.

According to data from Axiometrics, a specialist in apartment market research and analysis:

  • Annual effective rent growth of 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015 represented a 7-basis-point (bps) increase from the figure of one year earlier (also rounded to 4.7%), though it was 35 bps lower than the 5.2% of the third quarter of 2015. The fourth-quarter rate is the highest year-end figure since 2005, when effective rent growth was 5.8%.
  • Rent growth has been 4.7% or above for five straight quarters, even though a three-quarter streak of at least 5.0% growth was broken. Never in Axiometrics’ 20-year history has annual effective rent growth been at 4.7% or above for such a long period.
  • Quarter-over-quarter effective rent growth was -0.6% in the fourth-quarter, continuing a trend of negative rent growth at the end of the year. That rate was a 32-bps decrease from the 0.3% reported in 4Q14 and marked the only quarter of 2015 in which the rent-growth rate decreased from the corresponding quarter of 2014. It should be noted that quarter-to-quarter rent growth is normally negative in the fourth quarter due to seasonality.
  • Average national rent was $1,244 for the fourth quarter of 2015, a $54 increase from the average of $1,188 in the fourth quarter of 2014.
QUARTERLY EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Quarter 2012 2013 2014 2015
First 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9%
Second 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Third 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 2.0%
Fourth -0.6% -0.9% -0.3% -0.6%
 Source: Axiometrics Inc.

 

“Quarters 1-3 were the most robust period we have seen since before the Great Recession,” said Jay Denton, Axiometrics’ Senior Vice President of Analytics. “Much of the fourth-quarter moderation can be attributed to several Western markets that experienced double-digit rent growth for most of the year but could not sustain that pace.”

Denton added, “Those markets remain quite strong at 6% and higher rent growth. Axiometrics forecasted those metros to moderate, and they did late in the year. As expected, they remained among the top markets for rent growth despite the deceleration late in the year.”

In other metrics:

  • Occupancy was 95.0% in the fourth quarter, the highest 4Q rate since the 95.9% at the end of 2000. The 4Q15 rate was 38 bps lower than the 95.3% of 3Q15, but 10 bps higher than the 94.9% of 4Q14.
  • Annual effective rent growth was positive in 49 of Axiometrics’ top 50 markets, based on number of units. Only Oklahoma City was negative, at -0.6%. Two metros, Portland, OR (12.0%) and Oakland (11.3%), ended the year with double-digit rent growth.

Portland Remains No. 1 for Rent Growth

In the third quarter, Portland replaced Oakland as the metro with the highest annual effective rent growth among Axiometrics’ top 50 markets, and Oregon’s most populous area retained that distinction in the fourth quarter.

Oakland maintained the No. 2 position, but its Bay Area neighbors dropped in the rankings. San Francisco and San Jose, Nos. 3 and 5 last quarter, were Nos. 7 and 9 in the fourth quarter. California placed seven metros in the fourth-quarter top 25, including No. 3 Sacramento and No. 6 San Diego, while Florida placed five, including No. 5 Orlando.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/no-relief-in-sight-on-rents/

Great reasons to build a geodesic dome home | Katonah Real Estate

 

Dome homes. They’re kind of weird looking and they don’t exactly fit into those perfect little neighborhoods you see when walking around a cute downtown area or a clean-cut suburban gated community. But Buckminster Fuller saw the potential is those triangles: With the goal of creating a structure analogous to nature’s own designs, Fuller began to experiment with geometry in the late 1940s. In 1951, he patented the geodesic dome, and while you may not see a lot of on a normal city street, geodesic domes are known to be the most efficient building system available. So, why should you want a dome home anyway?

geodesic dome, dome homes, inside a dome home, dome homes, buckminster fuller, bucky fuller

Fuller, a philosopher, mathematician, engineer, historian, and poet, is known for popularizing the geodesic dome in architectural projects. One of his ambitions was to do more with less, knowing that eventually a housing crisis may endanger the planet’s growing population. He also noticed problems inherent in conventional construction techniques whereas natural structures seemed to have less trouble adapting to Mother Nature’s various issues.

the-gold-dome-oklahoma-3

1. Energy Efficiency

The sphere is nature’s most efficient shape, covering the most living area with the least amount of surface area. When compared with a similar sized rectangularly-shaped house, the dome home will have 30 percent less surface area. A dome home will actually use about 1 /3 less lumber to build than a similar sized box house, according to Linda Boothe, owner of Oregon Dome, so even though the dome uses less material, it’s about five times stronger than a rectangular-shaped house. Additionally, a third less surface area means that a third less heat is transferred to and from its surroundings, saving the average dome homeowner about 30 percent or more on their average heating and cooling bill.

 

geodesic dome, dome homes, inside a dome home, dome homes, buckminster fuller, bucky fuller

2. They’re Disaster-Proof

Well, just about. When the Loma Prieta earthquake in the Santa Cruz mountains hit in 1989, it hit 7.1 on Richter scale and over 500 conventional homes in the area were destroyed or needed extensive repair. Many more were damaged or needed major repair after the aftershocks rolled through. The only home to survive that quake in the area was an Oregon Dome geodesic dome home, Boothe said, and it was set up as a shelter for local earthquake survivors. Time and time again, dome homes have survived earthquakes, tornadoes and hurricanes when all other homes were destroyed. Why?

According to Boothe: “You can begin to see the intrinsic strength of this design by trying the following: Nail four boards together replicating box house framing and then nail three boards together in a triangle. You’ll find you can easily bend, twist, and skew the conventional square shape into many different shapes. This is what happens to your house in an earthquake. Now try to change the shape of the triangle. You can’t. The triangle is the strongest shape.”

dome_home_kit

3. Cheaper to Build than Traditional Houses

also save you on building materials, making them cheaper to build. Think of it like a soap bubble. Less surface area equals less lumber— which is cheaper for you all around.

 

geodesic dome, dome homes, inside a dome home, dome homes, buckminster fuller, bucky fuller

4. Endless Design Possibilities

The design possibilities are almost endless. While it may seem odd at first to try and figure out how to design a round home, the open floor plan allows you to insert or remove walls almost anywhere. A dome home is structurally independent of interior framing, so you don’t have to worry about that kitchen wall being “load-bearing”. Further, natural openings that occur within the construction of the dome allow for large openings and windows to the outside, letting light in throughout.

A dome home is an odd thing, certainly, and you may never see them lining the grid of regular city streets. However, every community that is hit, with tornadoes, earthquakes or hurricanes, however infrequently, would be smart to put a large dome structure near their town where they can gather and seek shelter during storms, much like the city of Tupelo, Mississippi is now doing.

 

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http://inhabitat.com/5-great-reasons-to-build-a-geodesic-dome-home/