In a further sign that the housing market continues to strengthen, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points in May to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the second highest HMI reading since the downturn.
The HMI measure of future sales conditions reached its highest level since June 2005, a sign of growing consumer confidence in the new home market. Especially as existing home inventory remains tight, we can expect increased demand for new construction moving forward. Builders, however, continue to deal with shortages of lots and labor and increasing building material costs.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Two of the three HMI components registered gains in May. The index charting sales expectations in the next six months jumped four points to 79 while the index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 76. Meanwhile, the component measuring buyer traffic edged one point down to 51.
The three-month moving averages for HMI scores posted gains in three out of the four regions. The Northeast and South each registered three-point gains to 49 and 71, respectively, while the West rose one point to 78. The Midwest was unchanged at 68.
NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing published by the Census Bureau reveals that just 4.7% of new home sales in the first quarter of 2017 were purchased with cash—down from the most recent peak of 9.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014. In contrast, the share of new home sales financed with conventional mortgages rose to 72.0%, its second-highest share since the fourth quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, FHA loan market share continued its upward trend, rising from14.4% to 14.7%.
Census data and NAHB calculations show that new home sales backed by VA products rose to 22,000 (+4,000) in the first quarter of 2017, though market share fell from 8.8% to 8.1%. The market share of VA loans averaged just 2.9% between the 2001 recession and the Great Recession, but has averaged 9.3% since the U.S. economy came out of recession in 2009.
It is worth adopting some caution associated with the Census market share estimates. In particular, the statistical error associated with the FHA, cash, and VA sales estimates from this data set are relatively high. This reduces the reliability of measures of short-term market changes.
Mindful of this limitation, over the long run the current FHA share is roughly one-half the 28% share determined for the first quarter of 2010 but still elevated compared to the 2002-2003 average of 10%.
Although cash sales make up a small portion of new home sales, they constitute a considerably larger share of existing home sales. In February 27% of existing home transactions were all-cash sales—the highest share since November 2015—according to estimates from the National Association of Realtors.
It is also worth noting that a different measure from CoreLogic shows a higher market share for cash sales for new construction: 17.7% in January.
FHA-backed loans were responsible for 14.7% of new home sales during the first quarter of 2017. Although the share has increased in two consecutive quarters, it remains more than twice its pre-recession average of 6.4%.
Conventional financing has expanded as the housing recovery has grown. The market share of new home sales with conventional financing was 62.2% in 2009 and 72.0% in the first quarter of 2017. This share has remained between 68% and 75% over the past four years.
The common questions many first-time buyers ask are now answered.
Purchasing a home and conquering financial responsibility is a goal for many people. But making this leap to homeownership is a big step, and it’s one that should be taken with careful consideration. Let’s face it, finding a home and securing a mortgage isn’t a walk in the park — and certainly nothing like signing a simple rental agreement. You’ve probably encountered confusing jargon such as “points,” “preapproval,” and “prequalification,” and funny names like Fannie Mae. Making sense of everything can leave you on the verge of frustration, but don’t worry — this is a completely normal feeling.
To help you demystify the process and get the most out of your first mortgage, we’ve asked some finance experts about things to consider before applying, some common points of confusion, and a few handy tips to help you understand the basics of mortgages.
“Be prepared; do your homework. Check out reputable lenders in your area. Get prequalified so that you know the price range in which you should be shopping.” — Cathy Blocker, EVP, Production Operations of Guild Mortgage Company
“Talk to a local mortgage banker that you’re comfortable with! There are some great mortgage bankers willing to help, so you shouldn’t waste your time with someone who doesn’t make you feel comfortable with the process. Explain what you’re looking to do and what your ideal home-buying situation is. The right mortgage banker will customize your home loan to your specific scenario. Make sure they explain all the costs ahead of time, so that you know exactly what to expect once you get a purchase contract and start the mortgage process.” — Nick Magiera of Magiera Team of LeaderOne Financial
“Every mortgage situation is different, so there’s really not a one-size-fits-all list of requirements. I recommend that you contact a mortgage banker that you know, like, and trust. If you don’t know any mortgage bankers, then I recommend that you choose a mortgage banker that your real estate agent suggests you work with. Your real estate agent wants you to have a smooth transaction, so they will only send you to mortgage bankers that they trust. A great mortgage banker will then walk you through the process and customize the mortgage around your specific scenario.” — Nick Magiera of Magiera Team of LeaderOne Financial
“There are a few things to get squared away before applying for a loan: 1. Cash for a down payment. Save money/acquire money for a down payment and closing costs. 2. A good working knowledge of your personal finances. Create a budget of your future expenses, as if you own the house, and make sure you can afford it. A good rule of thumb is that your mortgage should not exceed 30% of your take-home income. 3. A general idea of the price range of homes you are interested in. Research potential homes through a local Realtor or at Trulia.com. Compare by looking at real estate taxes, neighborhood statistics, and other criteria. Take your time! Your house may be the largest purchase in your life.” — Scott Bilker of DebtSmart
“It gives homebuyers an edge against competing offers. If a seller sees two offers and one has already been approved, then that is often the one that they go with, as there is less risk for them.” — Tracie Fobes, Penny Pinchin’ Mom
“First off, there is a difference between preapproved and prequalified. Prequalifying means you have done an initial lender screening. However, preapproval is the next step in the process. You have to give the bank many more documents like you’re applying for the mortgage. It’s worth doing because you will get a preapproval letter from the bank, and this will show sellers and real estate agents that you’re a serious buyer. It will also give you a better idea of which homes you can afford. Additionally, you will be able to act quickly once you find that perfect place without having to then seek out financing.” — Scott Bilker of DebtSmart
“On a conventional loan (Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac), the difference in price between a poor credit score (620) and a strong credit score (740-plus) could be as much as 3.0 points in fees, or 0.75 to 1.25% in interest rate. On an FHA or VA loan, the price difference may be up to 0.75 in points in fees or 0.125 to 0.250% in interest rate.” — Cathy Blocker, EVP, Production Operations of Guild Mortgage Company
“There is not a single universal standard. Lenders determine what kind of risk premium it will add to a loan based on your credit history and other information presented in a loan application. You can’t take a lender’s advertised interest rate for its best-qualified borrowers and tack on a set premium because you’re a C credit instead of an A credit (A credit being the least amount of risk).” — Nick Magiera of Magiera Team of LeaderOne Financial
“There are only two ways to pay off your mortgage fast: 1. Refinance at a lower rate. 2. Pay more toward the mortgage. That’s it. Don’t be fooled by biweekly mortgages because all they do is make you pay more. If you are not in a position to get a lower rate, then simply increase your monthly mortgage payment to an amount that is comfortable, keeping in mind that this is money you cannot easily get back. Conversely, if you pay more on your credit cards, you can always use the card again for cash or to buy things you need.” — Scott Bilker of DebtSmart
“[The] Federal Reserve sets the interest rate that banks pay to borrow overnight funds from other banks holding deposits with the Federal Reserve. If the cost of overnight borrowing to a bank increases, this typically causes banks to increase the interest rates they charge on all other loans they make, to continue to earn their targeted return on assets. As banks increase their interest rates, other lenders or financial firms also tend to increase their rates. An increase in the federal funds rate does not directly correlate to a direct increase in mortgage rates but is viewed as a general signal to the market that the Federal Reserve views that the economy is growing and that interest rates will be increasing in the future.” — Cathy Blocker, EVP, Production Operations of Guild Mortgage Company
“Points are fees the borrower pays the lender at the time the loan is closed, expressed as a percent of the loan. On a $200,000 loan, 2 points means a payment of $4,000 to the lender. Points are part of the cost of credit to the borrower, and in turn are part of the investment return to the lender. That said, points are not always required to obtain a home loan, but a ‘no point’ loan may have a higher interest rate.” — Nick Magiera of Magiera Team of LeaderOne Financial
“‘Discount points’ refers to a fee, usually expressed as a percentage of the loan amount, paid by the buyer or seller to lower the buyer’s interest rate.” — Cathy Blocker, EVP, Production Operations of Guild Mortgage Company
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling as the FOMC decided to leave short term rates unchanged.
- 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.42 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending September 29, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.48 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.85 percent.
- 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.72 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.07 percent.
- 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.81 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.91 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.
“Investors flocked to the safety of government bonds causing the 10-year Treasury yield to continue its descent following the FOMC’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage responded by dropping 6 basis points before landing at 3.42 percent — a ten-week low. The course of the economy is uncertain, yet consumers continue to be a bright spot. The September consumer confidence index is up 3 percent to 104.1, exceeding forecasts and reaching a new cycle high.”
Sales of new single-family houses in the United States shrank 11.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000 in September of 2015, the lowest since November last year. The stock of new houses for sale increased to its highest since March of 2010. New Home Sales in the United States averaged 654.25 Thousand from 1963 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 1389 Thousand in July of 2005 and a record low of 270 Thousand in February of 2011. New Home Sales in the United States is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
|468.00||522.00||1389.00||270.00||1963 – 2015||Thousand||Monthly||
Appreciating home values in the bottom third of the market helped pull more homeowners out of negative equity in the second quarter of 2015, but condos were more likely than houses to be underwater , according to the Zillow® Negative Equity Report.
• The U.S. rate of negative equity among mortgaged homeowners continued to drop in the second quarter of 2015, to 14.4 percent– the first time the rate has been below 15 percent since the real estate bubble burst.
• The improvement was spurred by value growth in the least valuable third of the housing stock, which are far more likely to be underwater than other homes.
• Condos are more likely to be underwater than single-family homes. Nearly 20 percent of all condos with a mortgage are upside down.
Condo-owners were in far worse shape than single-family homeowners in Chicago, Orlando and Las Vegas. And in only three markets – Detroit, Memphis, and Pittsburgh –single-family homeowners were more likely to be underwater than condo-owners.
A high rate of homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth is a lingering effect of the real estate crisis. At its worst, more than 15 million homeowners were upside down on their homes. Foreclosures, short sales and rapidly rising home values freed nearly half of those homeowners, leaving 7.4 million homeowners upside down at the end of Q2 2015.
The continued decline of the overall negative equity rate was fueled in the first half of the year by strong appreciation for the least valuable third of homes. The least valuable homes are much more likely to be underwater than more valuable homes
In the Atlanta market, for example, nearly 43 percent of the least valuable homes are in negative equity, while only 9.4 percent of high-end homes are underwater. Annual home value appreciation among the least valuable homes in Atlanta had slowed for 12 straight months through June 2015 months. However, low-end homes have been appreciating annually more than more valuable homes. Since June 2014, annual appreciation in the bottom tier outpaced home value appreciation among all Atlanta homes, likely helping drive negative equity down there from 29 percent to 21 percent year-over-year.
Similar trends played out in Sacramento, Riverside, and Phoenix, all places that have struggled with high rates of negative equity.
1. Price it right
2. Price it right
3. Price it right
A kitchen can be mostly white surfaces and still have a sense of life with just a few colorful accents. Notice the red dials on the range, which add personality, as well as the occasional accessory and plant life. These add up to a feeling of a more diverse palette without any single hue taking over from white as the focus.
U.S. house prices accelerated further in April, as low inventories and growing sales push costs higher, a leading data provider said Tuesday.
CoreLogic reported a 2.7% monthly advance to take the year-on-year gain to 6.8%.
The spring is traditionally the strongest portion of the year for housing, and data from CoreLogic and other providers suggest an upturn.
“Old-fashion supply and demand, fueled by historically low mortgage rates and improving consumer finances and confidence, continue to push home prices up,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
Dallas and Houston prices are showing few signs of let-up despite the collapse in energy prices. Dallas prices were up 10.3% in the 12 months to April, and Houston prices were up 9.5%. The Washington, D.C., area brought up the rear with just a 1.6% advance.
South Carolina was the strongest state, with an 11.4% advance, while Massachusetts saw a 1.7% drop, one of only four states to register a decline.
CoreLogic is the first of the three major house-price trackers to report results. The Case-Shiller/20-city composite rose 5% in the year to March, and the FHFA house price report showed a 5.2% gain in the 12 months to March.