Tag Archives: housing starts

Housing starts up y-o-y | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Total housing starts posted a decline in September due to flat conditions for single-family construction and a pullback for apartment development. Total starts declined 5.3% in September but are 6.4% higher for 2018 on a year-to-date basis, according to the joint data release from the Census Bureau and HUD.

The pace of single-family starts was roughly flat in September, decreasing 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 871,000. Slight gains off the summer soft patch for single-family mirror a minor uptick of the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, now registering a score of 68. While builders are benefitting from recent declines in lumber prices (at least relative to spring and summer’s elevated levels), they continue to report concerns about labor access issues.

On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are 6% higher as of September relative to the first nine months of 2017. Single-family permits, a useful indicator of future construction activity, were up slightly (2.9%) in September and have registered a 5.6% gain thus far in 2018 compared to last year.

Multifamily starts (2+ unit production) pulled back in September to a 330,000 annual rate. After a strong start to the year, multifamily development is moving closer to our forecast of leveling-off conditions. On a year-to-date basis, multifamily 5+ unit production is 7.3% higher thus far in 2018, while multifamily 5+ unit permitting is trending lower with just a 0.8% year-to-date increase relative to 2017.

With respect to housing’s economic impact, 54% of homes under construction in September were multifamily (607,000). The current count of apartments under construction is down slightly from a year ago. In September, there were 522,000 single-family units under construction, a gain of more than 9% from this time in 2017.

Regional data show – on a year-to-date basis – mixed conditions. Single-family construction is down 1% for the year in the Midwest and flat in the Northeast. Single-family starts are up in the larger building regions of the South (4.9%) and the West (14.6%).

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Single-Family Starts Flat in September

Housing starts analysis | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Comments on August Housing Starts

 

Earlier: Housing Starts Increased to 1.282 Million Annual Rate in August

Housing starts in August were above expectations,  and starts for June and July were revised up.  Most of the increase, and upward revisions, were due to the multi-family starts that are volatile month-to-month.

The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were up 9.2% in August compared to July (and August starts were revised up), and starts were up 9.4% year-over-year compared to August 2017.

Multi-family starts were down 38% year-over-year, and single family starts were down slightly year-over-year.

This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2017 (blue) and 2018 (red).

image: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QB_1ld2C2zg/W6JFJO03NdI/AAAAAAAAwCw/oMfZl_MNKV4JQQ89VJQniVoY4Ye5wNn3wCLcBGAs/s320/Starts20172018Aug.PNG

Starts Housing 2017 and 2018Click on graph for larger image.

Starts were up 9.4% in August compared to August 2017.

Through eight months, starts are up 6.9% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2017.   That is a decent increase.

Note that 2017 finished strong, so the year-over-year comparisons will be more difficult in Q4.

Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0xhVPfh9cYs/W6JIb4I3CSI/AAAAAAAAwC8/BEcLqA1gitQDc3A9Al4_nRmL5aFh0fUiwCLcBGAs/s320/MultiAug2018.PNG

Multifamily Starts and completionsThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession – but turned down, and has moved sideways recently.  Completions (red line) had lagged behind – however completions and starts are at about the same level now (more deliveries).

It is likely that both starts and completions, on rolling 12 months basis, will now move mostly sideways.

As I’ve been noting for a few years, the significant growth in multi-family starts is behind us – multi-family starts peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR).

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2POZ_G_0KLM/W6JIeSHjiXI/AAAAAAAAwDA/WqiMP6SJVeMzG5uNm7yh_15gaMoqvNRDACLcBGAs/s320/SingleAug2018.PNG

Single family Starts and completionsThe second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions.  The “wide bottom” was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect a couple more years, or more, of increasing single family starts and completions.

Note: Two months ago, in response to numerous articles discussing the “slowing housing market” and some suggesting “housing has peaked”, I wrote: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2). My view – that there will be further growth in housing starts – remains the same.

Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#o2tyGm3q82iFADMX.99

Housing starts up 9.4% year over year | Waccabuc Real Estate

United States Housing Starts  1959-2018 

Housing starts in the US jumped 9.2 percent from a month earlier to an annualized rate of 1,282 thousand in August of 2018, recovering  from a 0.3 percent drop in July and beating market expectations of a 5.8 percent rise. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and were flat in the Northeast. Housing Starts in the United States averaged 1433.04 Thousand units from 1959 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2494 Thousand units in January of 1972 and a record low of 478 Thousand units in April of 2009.

 

United States Housing Starts

 

US Housing Starts Above Forecasts

Housing starts in the US jumped 9.2 percent from a month earlier to an annualized rate of 1,282 thousand in August of 2018, recovering from a 0.3 percent drop in July and beating market expectations of a 5.8 percent rise. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and were flat in the Northeast.

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, increased 1.9 percent to a rate of 876 thousand units in August; and starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment surged 27.3 percent to a rate of 392 thousand. Starts rose in the Midwest (9.1 percent to 191 thousand), the West (19.1 percent to 318 thousand) and the South (6.5 percent to 674 thousand), but were steady in the Northeast (at 99 thousand). Starts for July were revised to 1,174 thousand from 1,168 thousand.
Building permits dropped 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229 thousand, the lowest reading since May of 2017. It compares with market expectations of a 0.1 percent decline to 1,310 thousand and follows a 1.5 percent rise in July. Single-family authorizations fell 6.1 percent to 820 thousand and multi-family permits decreased 4.9 percent to 409 thousand. Declines were seen in all regions: Northeast (-19.2 percent to 101 thousand), the Midwest (-1.7 percent to 178 thousand), the West (-8.4 percent to 304 thousand) and the South (-2.9 percent to 646 thousand).

Year-on-year, housing starts increased 9.4 percent while building permits fell 5.5 percent.

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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts