Tag Archives: Chappaqua Real Estate

Chappaqua Real Estate

NAR says home sales to continue to increase next year | Chappaqua Real Estate

Predictions from the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association,Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac show that home sales are going to heat up in 2017, according to a blog by NAR.

NAR predicted existing home sales will reach 6 million in 2017, an increase from this year’s forecast of 5.8 million, according to the blog. MBA predicted home sales will reach 5.75 million and Fannie and Freddie forecast home sales will come in at 6.2 million.

From the blog:

A huge wave of Generation Yers, who have delayed home buying, are emerging into their key buying years. They are predicted to keep home sales and condo sales strong well into 2020, according to economists.

Meanwhile, new-home construction starts likely will tick up to about 1.5 million per year to 2024, predicts Forisk Research.

Home builders likely will continue to be more subdued, despite calls for more inventory.

As for the rest of this year, the summer housing market saw high demand next to rising home prices, but don’t expect Fall to bring any relief. In fact, it could bring the hottest fallin a decade, new data from realtor.com shows.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/38205-nar-forecasts-heated-housing-market-in-2017?eid=311691494&bid=1549805

Low Mortgage Rates Sustain Improving Housing Markets | Chappaqua Real Estate

Freddie Mac released its Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®), showing two additional metro areas — Indianapolis, Indiana, and Columbus, Ohio — entering their historic benchmark levels of housing activity.

The national MiMi value stands at 85.1, largely unchanged from last month, indicating a housing market that’s on the outer range of its historic benchmark level of housing activity with a +0.14 percent improvement from June to July and a three-month improvement of +1.24 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value improved +4.70 percent. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 43 percent, but remains significantly off its high of 121.7.

News Facts:

  • Thirty-eight of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values within range of their benchmark averages, with Utah (97.5), Hawaii (96.6), Montana (96.5), Colorado (96) and Oregon (95.8) ranking in the top five with scores closest to their historical benchmark index levels of 100.
  • Seventy-nine of the 100 metro areas have MiMi values within range, with Los Angeles, CA (99.5), Salt Lake City, UT (100.6), Provo, UT (98.9), Honolulu, HI (98.7) and Nashville, TN (101.6) ranking in the top five with scores closest to their historical benchmark index levels of 100.
  • The most improving states month over month were Illinois (+1.72%), Nevada (+1.36%), Florida (+1.20%), Alabama (+1.14%) and South Carolina (+1.00%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Florida (+10.03%), Oregon (+9.49%), Colorado (+9.09%), New Jersey (+8.64%) and Tennessee (+8.54%).
  • The most improving metro areas month over month were Lakeland, FL (+2.13%), Youngstown, OH (+1.92%), Chicago, IL (+1.73%), Orlando, FL (+1.63%) and Las Vegas, NV (+1.61%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving metro areas were Orlando, FL (+16.20%), Tampa, FL (+13.03%), Lakeland, FL (+13.02%), Chattanooga, TN (+12.89%) and Palm Bay, FL (+12.47).
  • In July, 32 of the 50 states and 75 of the top 100 metros were showing an improving three-month trend. The same time last year, all 50 states and the top 100 metro areas were showing an improving three-month trend.

Quote attributable to Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer:

“Nationally, MiMi in July was largely unchanged for the third consecutive month at 85.1, yet marking a 4.7 percent year-over-year increase. Despite rising house prices, the majority of housing markets have sustained their momentum due in large part to low mortgage rates. For example, purchase applications, as measured by MiMi, were up more than 17 percent year over year in July and remaining at their highest level since December 2007.”

The 2016 MiMi release calendar is available online.

MiMi monitors and measures the stability of the nation’s housing market, as well as the housing markets of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the top 100 metro markets. MiMi combines proprietary Freddie Mac data with current local market data to assess where each single-family housing market is relative to its own long-term stable range by looking at home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios (changes in home purchasing power based on house prices, mortgage rates and household income), proportion of on-time mortgage payments in each market, and the local employment picture. The four indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market. Monthly, MiMi uses this data to show, at a glance, where each market stands relative to its own stable range of housing activity. MiMi also indicates how each market is trending, whether it is moving closer to, or further away from, its stable range. A market can fall outside its stable range by being too weak to generate enough demand for a well-balanced housing market or by overheating to an unsustainable level of activity.

Mortgage rates average 3.50% | Chappaqua Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to its highest level since June.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.50 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending September 15, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 3.44 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.91 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.77 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.11 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.81 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.92 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 10-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points to 1.73 percent, its highest level since Brexit. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage followed suit, rising 6 basis points to 3.50 percent this week. This is the first week since June that mortgage rates were above 3.48 percent, snapping an 11-week trend.”

Home prices continue to rise | #Chappaqua Real Estate

Home prices continue to rise from last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic, Case-Shiller Indices.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global, which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an annual increase of 5.1% in June, unchanged from the month before. The 10-City Composite increased 4.3%, slightly less that May’s 4.4% increase. Similarly, the 20-City Composite increased 5.1% annually, down from May’s increase of 5.3%.

Click to Enlarge

case-shiller

(Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic)

Of those 20 cities, Portland, Seattle and Denver posted the highest annually gains over each of the last five months. In June, Portland increased the most at 12.6%, followed by Seattle at 11% and Denver at 9.2%. Overall, six cities reporter a higher price increase in June than in May.

“Home prices continued to rise across the country led by the west and the south,” says David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Committee managing director and chairman. “In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10%; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation.”

“Nationally, home prices have risen at a consistent 4.8% annual pace over the last two years without showing any signs of slowing,” Blitzer said.

Click to Enlarge

case-shiller

(Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic)

After seasonal adjustment, the National Index increased 0.2% monthly in June. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite increased 0.1% monthly.

On the other hand, after seasonal adjustment, nine cities saw a decrease in home prices.

“Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape,” Blitzer said. “Sales of existing homes are at running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market.”

“Sales of new single family homes were at a 654,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, the highest rate since November 2007,” he said. “Housing starts in July topped an annual rate of 1.2 million units.”

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37901-case-shiller-home-prices-continue-upward-trend?eid=311691494&bid=1513118

US Homebuilder Sentiment Slips in July | Chappaqua Real Estate

 

U.S. home builders are feeling slightly less optimistic about their sales prospects this month, though their outlook for the new-home market remains positive overall.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday fell one point to 59.

Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as good, rather than poor. The index had mostly held at 58 this year before rising to 60 last month.

Builders’ view of current sales and traffic by prospective buyers slipped one point this month. Their outlook for sales over the next six months slid three points.

The latest survey of builders follows a recent pullback in sales of new U.S. homes.

Sales declined 6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 551,000 homes. Overall, though, sales are running ahead of last year’s pace through the first five months of this year, aided by job growth and ultra-low mortgage rates.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up 3.42 percent last week, staying close to its all-time low of 3.31 percent in November 2012. A year ago, the average rate was 4.09 percent.

While new-home sales have rebounded from the depths of the housing bust, the current rate of new home sales lags behind the historical annual average of roughly 650,000 homes. New home sales figures for June are due out next week.

Many builders also continue to grapple with a stubborn dearth of skilled workers and available land parcels cleared for new construction.

Still, the NAHB expects that new-home sales will continue to grow, albeit slowly.

“Job creation is solid, mortgage rates are at historic lows and household formations are rising,” said Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist. “These factors should help to bring more buyers into the market as the year progresses.”

This month’s builder index was based on 304 respondents.

A measure of current sales conditions for single-family homes slipped one point to 63, while a gauge of traffic by prospective buyers fell one point to 45. Builders’ view of sales over the next six months slid three points to 66.

 

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http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-homebuilder-sentiment-slips-july-40664158

How Have Rents Changed Since 1960? | Chappaqua Real Estate

With rents rising in cities and states across the US, many renters struggle with affordability. In Miami, Los Angeles, and Orlando, for example, more than 55% of renters were cost-burdened in 2014, spending more than 30% of their income on rent. Rents have moderated recently in expensive metros like San Francisco and New York, but continue to climb rapidly in Dallas, Seattle, and Denver.

To better understand how rents and affordability have changed over time, Apartment List analyzed Census data from 1960 – 2014. We find that inflation-adjusted rents have risen by 64%, but real household incomes only increased by 18%. The situation was particularly challenging from 2000 – 2010: household incomes actually fell by 9%, while rents rose by 18%. As a result, the share of cost-burdened renters nationwide more than doubled, from 24% in 1960 to 49% in 2014.

These trends are repeated in cities and states across the country. Since 1980, incomes in expensive areas like DC, Boston, and SF have risen rapidly, but rents have increased roughly twice as fast. In Houston, Detroit, and Indianapolis, incomes have actually fallen in real terms, while rents have risen by ~15-25%. The only urban areas where incomes kept pace with rising rents were Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.

Inflation-adjusted rents have increased by ~64% since 1960

First, we took a look at median rents in the United States, from 1960 to 2014. All data was adjusted for inflation, allowing us to compare rents across decades. Median rents have increased steadily during that time period, from $568 in 1960 to $934 in 2014 – an increase of 63%. Rents rose the fastest during the 1960s (18% increase), followed by the 1980s (16%). In contrast, the 1970s and 1990s saw relatively small rent increases, at 4% and 2% respectively.

Rents increased by 12% from 2000-2010, but median income fell by 7%

Next, we compared the change in rents with household income, over the same period. Both sets of data were adjusted to 2014 dollars, and indexed to 1960. Looking at the results, the 1990s were the best decade for renters, as rents barely budged (+2% over the course of the decade), whereas incomes increased by nearly 10% – a 7% difference overall, and the only decade in which rents increased less than incomes. Renters did relatively well in the 1970s as well, with both rents and incomes showing small increases.

The decade from 2000-2010, however, was the worst for renters. They were hit by rising rents (+12%) and declining incomes (-7%), making them significantly worse off overall. That decade was also the only decade in which real household incomes fell. Things have improved a bit since, as rents and incomes flattened from 2010-2014, but it’s not surprising that many Americans say that they are worse off now than eight years ago.

The share of cost-burdened renters has risen from 24% to 49%

What has the combination of rising rents and stagnant incomes done to renters? To answer the question, we used JCHS tabulations of cost-burden rates (the share of renters spending more than 30% of income on rent). Unsurprisingly, the share of cost-burdened renters increased from 1960 – 2014, but the magnitude of the increase is dramatic. 24% of renters were cost-burdened in 1960, but that number jumped to more than 50% in 2010, before declining slightly in the years following. Mirroring the data on rents and income, the share of cost-burdened renters actually declined slightly in the 1990s, but spiked from 2001-2005, and again from 2007-2011. The US renter population is larger than it has ever been (43 million households, or 37% of the total population), and nearly half of them are struggling to pay rent.

Renters in lower income quintiles hit especially hard by rising rents and declining incomes

Next, we looked at cost-burden rates by household income quintile. Renters with incomes in the lowest 20% have had cost-burden rates greater than 70% since the 1970s, and affordability has continued to decline in recent years. Among renters in the lower middle bracket (making up to $41,186 a year), however, the increase in cost-burden rates has been significant, with an increase of 22% since the year 2000. Renters in other income brackets have fared better, but cost-burden rates have risen across the board.

Rents have risen faster than incomes in nearly every urban area

We know that rents have increased faster than incomes nationwide, but how do the results vary across cities? To answer this question, we took Census data from 1980 – 2014, and compared median renter incomes and rents in different urban areas across the US. As before, data was adjusted for inflation. In nearly every urban area we examined, rents increased significantly more than incomes, with results clustering into five groups:

  1. Expensive coastal cities saw significant increases in incomes, but not enough to keep pace with rising rents. Washington, DC, for example, had a 33% increase in real incomes, but rents rose by 86%. Similar results were seen in San Francisco, New York City, and Boston. Renters in Los Angeles struggled the most, as rents jumped 55%, even as incomes only increased 13%.
  2. Renters in the Midwest and South had stagnant or declining incomes, even as rents increased. Incomes in Dallas, Nashville, and Chicago barely budged, even as rents rose by 25% or more. In Houston, Detroit, and Indianapolis, incomes actually fell by ~10-15%, even as housing costs continued to climb.
  3. Other cities saw incomes increase, but not fast enough to keep up with rents. This was the biggest group, comprising a varied list of cities, from Seattle and Portland on the West Coast; to Orlando, Atlanta, and Miami on the Southeast; and Denver and Salt Lake City on the interior. In some ways, this group mirrors what has happened in the US as a whole: incomes have increased by 15-25% since 1980, but rents have grown twice as fast.
  4. Cities with room to grow – Las Vegas and Phoenix – had relatively small rent increases, allowing incomes to keep up. Both cities added large amounts of housing inventory in the 1990s and 2000s, which helped keep a lid on rents. Incomes in these urban areas did not increase any faster than most other cities, but small rent increases mean that renters are not much worse off than before.
  5. Only one city had high income growth that matched rent increases – Austin, TX. Rents in Austin rose rapidly from 1980 – 2014, but incomes grew even faster. Austin’s population has more than doubled since 1980, causing rents to increase by more than 40%, but real incomes increased even faster. Strong employment growth in Austin has attracted many millennials, but wage growth means that Austin is the only urban area where incomes have risen more than rents.

The rent is (still) too damn high

Rents have risen rapidly in many cities across the US, but looking at things over more than fifty years helps us understand the impact of these trends. If rents had only risen at the rate of inflation, the average renter would be paying $366 less in rent each month, which would allow many to more than double their down payment savings.When coupled with stagnant incomes and soaring student debt, it is no wonder that renters across the country are struggling with affordability. Nearly half of them are cost-burdened, compared with less than a quarter in 1960.

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https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/rent-growth-since-1960

Private Residential Construction Spending Stalls in April | Chappaqua Real Estate

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending for April dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $439.7 billion, down by 1.5% over the March upwardly revised estimate. Private nonresidential construction spending was also down 1.5%, the first decline in 2016.

Within private residential construction, spending on multifamily and improvements both declined in April. Multifamily spending decreased to $60.0 billion after two consecutive months of strong gains. Despite this monthly decline, multifamily spending was 21.4% higher than in April 2015. Private construction spending on home improvements fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $142.2 billion, down by 3.2% since last month. Compared to 2015 April estimates, spending on home improvements decreased 3.5%. Single-family spending stood at $237.5 billion, virtually unchanged since March but up by 12.9% year over year.

The NAHB construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), illustrates the strong growth in new multifamily construction since 2010, while new single-family construction and home improvements spending have drifted upward at a more modest pace. NAHB anticipates accelerating growth for new single-family spending over the rest of 2016.

Slide1

The pace of private nonresidential construction spending retreated after three consecutive monthly increases. It fell 1.5% on a monthly basis, but was 3.4% higher than the April 2015 estimate. The largest contribution to this year-over-year nonresidential spending gain was made by the class of lodging (25.3% increase), followed by office (24.4% increase) and amusement and recreation religious (11.9% increase).

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/06/private-residential-construction-spending-stalls-in-april/

Mortgage rates average 3.59% | Chappaqua Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates declining from the previous week and reaching their lowest level since February of last year.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.59 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending April 7, 2016, down from last week when they averaged 3.71 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.66 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.88 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.93 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.90 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.83 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for theDefinitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates this week registered the delayed impact of last week’s sharp drop in Treasury yields as the 30-year mortgage rate fell 12 basis points to 3.59 percent. This rate marks a new low for 2016 and matches last year’s low in February 2015. Low mortgage rates and a positive employment outlook should support a strong housing market in the second quarter of 2016.”

Mortgage rates average 3.64% | Chappaqua Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates ticking higher for the first time in two months.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.64 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending March 3, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 3.62 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.94 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.03 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.84 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.79 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.96 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for theDefinitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The market turbulence that kicked off the year subsided at the end of February, providing at least a temporary break in the flight to quality. Treasury yields approached their highest level in a month, boosting the 30-year mortgage 2 basis points this week to 3.64 percent. Despite this welcome breather, Fed officials have been highlighting the downside risks to the economic outlook, and the market expects the Fed to refrain from any further short-term rate increases for now.”

The future of home ownership | Chappaqua Real Estate

Economists are hopeful that housing market activity — and prices — will continue to perk up generally in 2016, due to a number of factors. The most important catalyst for housing is the improving economy and employment landscape. As Americans feel more confident about the economy and more secure in their jobs, they will be more willing to take the big step of home ownership.

At the same time, despite the Fed’s first rate increase, mortgage rates remain low and banks are finally loosening credit conditions. Both of those factors are drawing more buyers into the market, further increasing housing demand.

One interesting group is the “boomerang buyers” — homeowners who lost their homes during the recession and are ready to jump back into the market. Some 7.3 million Americans lost their homes to foreclosures or short sales — two events that can stay on your credit report for up to seven years — from 2007 to 2014, according to real estate data company RealtyTrac. If they have no other major credit issues lingering, those first foreclosed owners are now coming out of the financial doghouse and qualify for a mortgage. RealtyTrac projects that 250,000 to 500,000 boomerang-ers will come back into the market this year, with another million or so more in the next few years.

One last group that could help boost the housing market is millennials, those aged 18 to 34. Sure, many of them are spooked by home ownership, because they watched their parents navigate the Great Recession and they themselves are graduating college with a hefty chunk of student loans. But young professionals may find that a fixed-rate mortgage is the perfect antidote to rising rents. And when they do come to that realization, the nation’s homeownership rate — which at 63.7% in the third quarter of 2015 was near multi-year lows — should reverse course.

 

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http://time.com/money/4193040/real-estate-housing-market/