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Home prices jumped the most in these 10 housing markets | Bedford Real Estate

Home prices increased in March to a new peak, according to the latest Home Prices Index from Black Knight Financial Services.

Home prices rose to a median $272,000 in March, the report showed. This represents a new peak in home prices, and a rise of 2.3% from the start of the year.

And the Case-Shiller index, put out by CoreLogic and S&P Dow Jones Indices, showed home prices increased 5.8% annually in March, a pace which experts say is good news for sellers, but not so great for home buyers.

But some metropolitan areas saw home prices moving faster than others, as the fastest metro saw an increase that was double that of the national average. Month-over-month, home prices increased 1.3% nationally.

Here are the top ten housing metros with the highest increase in home prices in March, and the percent increase from the previous month. Using data from Trulia, HousingWire analyzed the median home price in each metro.

10. Bloomington, Illinois – Home prices up 2%

Median home price: $157,000

IllinoisFlagPhoto.jpg

9. Boulder, Colorado – Home prices up 2%

Median home price: $625,000

8. Sacramento, California – Home prices up 2%

Median home price: $280,000

California

7. Spokane, Washington – Home prices up 2%

Median home price: $180,325

6. Kankakee, Illinois – Home prices up 2.2%

Median home price: $86,000

5. San Francisco, California – Home prices up 2.2%

Median home price: $1,205,000

san francisco houses

4. Walla Walla, Washington – Home prices up 2.2%

Median home price: $218,750

3. Bellingham, Washington – Home prices up 2.3%

Median home price: $335,709

2. Seattle, Washington – Home prices up 2.4%

Median home price: $625,000

Side shot

1. San Jose, California – Home prices up 2.6%

Median home price: $835,000

San Jose

 

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https://www.housingwire.com/articles/40278-home-prices-jumped-the-most-in-these-10-housing-markets?eid=311691494&bid=1771046

Decline for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction | Bedford Real Estate

The number of single-family homes built-for-rent fell slightly at the start of 2017, falling to 6,000 for the quarter. Over the last four quarters, total production of this type of housing was 33,000 homes.

According to data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, the market share of single-family homes built-for-rent, as measured on a one-year moving average, stood at 4.1% of total starts as of the first quarter of 2017.

Given the small size of the market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements are not typically statistically significant. The current market share remains higher than the historical average of 2.8% but is down from the 5.8% reading registered at the start of 2013. This class of single-family construction excludes homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes. It only includes homes built and held for rental purposes.

With the onset of the Great Recession and the ongoing declines in the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes rose. Despite the current elevated market concentration, the total number of single-family starts built-for-rent remains low in terms of the total building market.

Of course, the built-for-rent share of single-family homes is considerably smaller than the single-family home portion of the rental housing stock, which is 35% according to the 2015 American Community Survey. As homes age, they are more likely to be rented. Thus, the primary source of single-family rental homes is not construction but the existing housing stock. In fact, from 2005 to 2015, 56% of the gains in the rental housing stock were due to single-family homes.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/05/decline-for-single-family-built-for-rent-construction/

March Sales: New Listings Were Off to the Races | Bedford Real Estate

March buyers blew the roof off housing markets as they heeded warnings about the limited supplies of home for sale and found houses in record time.  National monthly market reports on March transactions chronicled surge of sales as the spring season kicked off and tens of thousands of new listings turned over in a matter of days.

“We expected a seasonal uptick in sales this time of year and March certainly met and somewhat exceeded that expectation,” said RE/MAX CEO Dave Liniger as the months supply in RE/MAX’s latest National Housing Report fell below 3 months in March for the first time in history.

“Calendars might say spring is only a week old but we’re already in the thick of the most frenzied home buyer season on record,” concurred realtor.com’s Javier Vivas. Redfin reported its fastest March on record for home sales since it began tracking this data in 2010.

Every report told the same story.  The plunge in days on market was breathtaking as buyers gobbled up new listings as fast as they hit MLSs. In NAR’s existing home sales report, days on market fell from 45 days in February to 34 days in March, on realtor.com from 90 to 68,, on RE/MAX from 71 to 64, on Redfin from 60 top 49.

Prices Outpace Incomes’

The three year inventory drought coupled with the spring surge in demand pushed prices even ither than

109.1 million full-time wage and salary workers were $830 in

the first quarter of 2016 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

This was 2.7 percent higher than a year earlier

 

 

March Market Reports at a Glance

Source

Monthly Sales Trend

Annual Sales Trend

Monthly Price Trend

Annual Price Trend

Median Sale Price

Median Days on Market

Comments

NAR

  4.4%

5.9%

-2.18%

6.8%

$236,400

34

There was enough of a monthly increase in listings in March for sales to muster a strong gain. Sales will go up as long as inventory does.
Realtor.com

NA

NA

4%

8%

$260,000

68

The typical spring upswing in sales has come about a month earlier than usual.
Redfin

 

42.7%

 

8.9%

 

4.6%

 

7.5%

 

$273,000

 

49

Spring 2017 shapes up to be the fastest and most competitive housing market in recent years,
RE/MAX

-0.2%

6.6%

7.1%

11%

$225,000

64

Prices hit a new high due steady demand and record low inventory.
Zillow

N/A

N/A

0.4%*

6.8%*

$196,500*

N/A

Five percent fewer homes on the market now than a year ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*These data are not sales but valuations for all homes based on Zillow’s AVM.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2017/05/march-sales-new-listings-were-off-to-the-races/

U.S. pending home sales surge to ten-month high | Bedford Real Estate

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes jumped to a 10-month high in February, pointing to robust demand for housing ahead of the busy spring selling season.

The report on Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors suggested higher home prices and mortgage rates were having little impact on the housing market for now, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite an apparent slowdown in growth in the first quarter.

The NAR said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, surged 5.5 percent to 112.3. That was the highest reading since April and the second best showing since May 2006.

“This bodes well for home sales this spring,” said Misa Batcheller, an economic analyst at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Contract signing last month was likely boosted by unseasonably warm temperatures. The gains reversed January’s 2.8 percent drop. Pending home contracts become sales after a month or two, and last month’s surge implied a pickup in home resales after they tumbled 3.7 percent in February.

Economists had forecast pending home sales rising 2.4 percent last month. Pending home sales increased 2.6 percent from a year ago.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data as investors assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials on further interest rate increases this year. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, one of the U.S. central bank’s most consistent supporters of low interest rates, said he supported additional monetary policy tightening this year.

The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter percentage point earlier this month and has forecast two more rate hikes this year. The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies while U.S. stocks were mixed. U.S. government bond prices rose.

TIGHT INVENTORIES

Demand for housing is being driven by a strong labor market, which is generating wage increases, as it nears full employment. Sales activity, however, remains constrained by tight inventories, which are driving up home prices.

“The good news is that warm winter weather has led to a surge in construction that will hopefully result in a bloom of new homes for sale this spring,” said Joseph Kirchner, senior economist at realtor.com.

A report on Tuesday showed home prices increased 5.7 percent in January on a year-on-year basis. The NAR expects sales of previously owned homes to increase 2.3 percent this year to around 5.57 million units.

Existing homes sales increased 3.8 percent last year. Housing market strength suggests an apparent sharp slowdown in economic growth early in the first quarter is likely temporary.

The Atlanta Fed is forecasting gross domestic product increasing at a 1.0 percent annualized pace in the first quarter. The economy grew at a 1.9 percent rate in the final three months of 2016.

Given labor market strength, economists expect only a modest impact from higher mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently at 4.23 percent, below a more than 2-1/2-year high of 4.32 percent hit in December.

In a separate report on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said applications for home purchase loans rose 1.2 percent last week from the prior week. It was the fourth increase in the past five weeks.

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN1701XS

Builder Confidence Holds Firm | Bedford Real Estate

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained on firm ground in January, down two points to a level of 67 from a downwardly revised December reading of 69 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

The solid reading is consistent with building expectations heading into the new year. NAHB expects 10 percent growth in single-family construction in 2017, adding to the gains of 2016. However, ongoing industry concerns include rising mortgage interest rates as well as a lack of lots and access to labor.

The HMI rose sharply in December as the election results raised hopes among builders that a new Congress and administration will help create a better business climate for small businesses, particularly with respect to improving regulatory costs, which increased more than 29% over the last five years.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components retreated in January. The component gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 72, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months registered a two-point decline to 76 and the component measuring buyer traffic edged one-point lower to 51.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 52 and the Midwest posted a three-point gain to 64. The South and West each held steady at 67 and 79, respectively.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/01/builder-confidence-holds-firm-in-january-2/

Mortgage rates average 4.30% | Bedford Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the eighth consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.30 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending December 22, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 4.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.96 percent.

  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.52 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.37 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.22 percent.

  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.32 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.19 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.06 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“A week after the only rate hike of 2016, the mortgage industry digested the Fed’s decision and this week’s survey reflects that response. Following Yellen’s speech last Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 10 basis points. The 30-year mortgage rate rose 14 basis points to 4.30 percent, reaching highs we have not seen since April 2014.”

Non-Mortgage Consumer Debt Accelerates | Bedford Real Estate

The Federal Reserve Board reported that consumer credit outstanding grew by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0% over the third quarter of 2016, 0.6 percentage point faster than the 6.4% rate of growth in the second quarter. There is now $3.71 trillion in outstanding consumer credit.

presentation15

Growth in the outstanding amount of consumer credit overall reflected an increase in both revolving and non-revolving credit. Revolving credit is largely composed of credit card debt while non-revolving credit includes both student and auto loans. Over the third quarter, revolving credit rose by 7.6% and now totals $2.73 trillion while non-revolving credit climbed 5.2% reaching $979 billion.

Growth in consumer credit has been accelerating on a quarter-over-quarter basis in 2016. According to Figure 1, since falling to 5.6% growth in the first quarter of 2016, each subsequent quarter has experienced a faster rate of growth. In the second quarter of 2016, growth rates of both revolving and non-revolving credit recorded higher rates of growth relative to the first. However, in the third quarter, growth in non-revolving credit accelerated again while the growth of revolving credit decelerated.

presentation17

Information from the most recent iteration of the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) provides some insight into the slowdown in the growth of revolving credit over the quarter. The SLOOS, among other questions, asks banks, who are the largest holder of revolving credit debt, about the supply and demand for credit card debt. In the most recent iteration, the SLOOS also asked about the likelihood of a respondent’s bank approving an application for a credit card to a borrower with a given FICO score now relative to 3 months ago. The FICO score options were 620, 680, and 720 and all other borrower characteristics were to remain “typical”*.

Figure 2 above depicts the results from the SLOOS. The “Net” is the difference between the percentage of banks reporting that they were “More likely” now than 3 months ago to approve the credit card application and the proportion of banks that were “Less likely” to do so. On net, banks were less likely to approve a credit card application for a prospective borrower with a FICO score of 620 and were more likely on net to approve an application for prospective borrower with a FICO score of 720. At a FICO score of 680 banks were neutral on net, the same portion of banks reported both more likely and less likely to approve a credit card application for a borrower with that credit score.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/non-mortgage-consumer-debt-accelerates/

Relief from soaring home prices isn’t coming anytime soon | Bedford Real Estate

The US housing market is supply constrained, sending home prices in major US metros back to levels last seen in the winter of 2007.

Research out of JP Morgan published Thursday indicates that this situation appears unlikely to resolve itself anytime soon.

“Nationwide house price indexes have been pushing steadily higher—real house prices are now 25% above their 2012 trough and at the highest levels on record outside the pre-crisis boom years,” JP Morgan’s Jesse Edgerton writes.

“One might wonder if these high prices reflect growing demand that could soon elicit a wave of construction that would prove our forecasts wrong. We find, however, that high prices are concentrated in markets where supply is constrained by geography or regulation, suggesting there may be little room for additional construction.” (Emphasis added.)

In short, areas seeing home prices rise fastest — think San Francisco, San Jose, and Denver — are not in a position to meet the demand for housing implied by the rise in prices.

The problem here is two-fold.

As the chart below shows, high home prices haven’t influenced the aggressiveness with which homebuilders have added to the housing stock over time. This indicates the supply side of the market is content to accept elevated prices even if the volume of homes built and sold is below what the demand side alone might dictate.

View photos

Additionally, Edgerton’s work shows that markets equipped with both high home prices and an ability to meet the demand implied by these prices literally do not exist.

“Metro areas in the upper right quadrant of the chart would be the best candidates for a demand-driven construction boom,” Edgerton writes. “Unfortunately, sharp-eyed readers will note that there are no dots in the upper-right portion of the figure.”

View photos

Edgerton adds, “Thus, it is unclear how much we can expect high prices to drive construction in the coming years, as the data show that high prices are concentrated in areas where supply may be limited in its ability to respond to demand.”

Data out this week from S&P/Case-Shiller showed home prices rose 5.3% nationally in August, up from a 5% annual gain seen the prior month.

A report from the National Association of Realtors last week showed a 5.6% increase in median existing home prices, the 55th straight month of year-on-year gains. At the current pace of existing home sales, there exists just 4.5-months’ supply in the US market.

“Inventory has been extremely tight all year and is unlikely to improve now that the seasonal decline in listings is about to kick in,” chief economist for the National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun said in a report.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/relief-from-soaring-home-prices-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-174136415.html?_fsig=arxQ.NYjpRCtxgAPQstl9A–

Existing home sales rise | Bedford Real Estate

Existing home sales, as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), increased 2.0% in October and reached the highest pace since February 2007. In October sales increased for the second straight month, and were up 5.9% from the same month a year ago. Total existing home sales in October increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.60 million units combined for single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, up from an upwardly adjusted 5.49 million units in September.

existing-sales-october-2016

October existing sales increased in all four regions, ranging from 2.8% in the South to 0.8% in the West. Year-over-year, October sales also increased in all regions, ranging from 10.4% in the West to 1.4% in the Northeast.

Total housing inventory decreased slightly by 0.5% in October, and remains 4.3% lower than its level a year ago. At the current sales rate, the October unsold inventory represents a 4.3-month supply, compared to a 4.4-month supply in September.

The October all-cash sales share increased to 22% from 21% in September, but was down from 24% one year ago. Individual investors purchased a 13% share in October, down from 14% in September and unchanged from a year ago. The first-time home buyer share was 33% in October, down a point from the solid September report, but above the first-time buyer share of 31% in October 2015. Distressed sales, comprised of foreclosures and short sales, increased to 5% in October from 4% in September, which was the lowest rate since NAR launched that series in 2008.

The October median sales price of $232,200 was 6.0% above the same month a year ago, and represents the 56th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price dropped for the fourth consecutive month to $220,300 in October, but was up 6.2% from the same month a year ago.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/existing-sales-revival/