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Bedford Hills NY

Real Estate Prices Fall Sharply in New York | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Since the coronavirus shut the city down, the number of sales in Manhattan dropped 54 percent and the median price fell to $1 million.

After three months with brokers prohibited from in-person showings, many buyers and sellers are just starting to get back in the market.
After three months with brokers prohibited from in-person showings, many buyers and sellers are just starting to get back in the market.Credit…Karsten Moran for The New York Times

The coronavirus has dealt a blow to the Manhattan real estate market unmatched in recent history, and the prospects of a near-term recovery remain unclear.

The number of closed sales in the second quarter were down 54 percent compared to the same period last year, the largest decline in at least 30 years, according to a new report from the brokerage Douglas Elliman. The median sales price fell 17.7 percent, compared to the same time last year, to $1 million, the biggest drop in a decade.

The number of contracts signed for apartments in June, the latest indicator of buyer appetite, was down 76 percent, compared to the same time last year.

“This is what you get when the market is not able to function,” said Jonathan Miller, a New York appraiser and the author of the report, noting that in-person apartment showings in New York City were banned for nearly the entire quarter. “It’s an extreme moment, to put it lightly.”

Even after a full quarter of sales data in the midst of the pandemic, outlining the shape of an eventual recovery is difficult. More than 90 percent of the sales recorded in the second quarter were actually signed before the virus gripped New York in March, said Bess Freedman, the chief executive of the brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.

“A lot will ride on what happens with schools at the end of the summer,” Ms. Freedman said, because few potential buyers with children who have left the city to escape the pandemic will choose to return, if virtual classrooms continue.

Pent-up demand, from buyers who were unable to view apartments before the city started to reopen, is likely to fuel sales in the next quarter, and home sellers seem to agree. Last week, 550 new listings hit the market, nearly twice as many as in the same week last year, according to UrbanDigs, a real estate data firm. But overall, listings in Manhattan are still down 26 percent compared to last year, the first year-over-year drop in inventory in five years, according to the Corcoran Group.

“I’d like to say it dropped because we sold it all, but that’s not the reality,” said Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of Corcoran, noting that many sellers pulled their homes off the market because of the shutdown.

Despite the significant drop in sales price in the quarter, more time is needed to make sense of the sharp decline. “There are plenty of examples of discounts, and just as many without,” said Mr. Miller, who notes that the market is only now entering a stage resembling normalcy.

One of the looming questions heading into the third quarter is how the pandemic will shift buyer preferences. There has been a spike in search traffic for apartments with outdoor spaces and home offices, said Rory Golod, the regional president of the brokerage Compass.

“People are more attracted to a property that no one has ever lived in before,” said Steve Kliegerman, the president of Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing, adding that the shift could be a boon for the new development market. That is not yet the case, though. Just 98 contracts on newly built apartments were signed or closed from mid-March to mid-June, a 75 percent drop from the same period last year, according to a report from his firm.

Several agents have said that units in larger buildings have been a particularly hard sell, because of concerns over crowded elevators and shared lobbies. And even though state guidelines no longer prohibit in-person showings, some buildings have not relaxed their rules and are still refusing to allow move-ins or apartment showings.

There may be more lasting changes in the months to come. The share of all-cash buyers dropped to 41 percent, down from an average of about 50 percent over the last several years, Mr. Miller said. That could have major implications for the luxury market, which had been propped up by investment buyers who typically bought without financing.

The market may return to some semblance of normal by the first quarter of 2021, said Garrett Derderian, the chief executive of GS Data Services, a real estate analytics firm. But that will depend not only on whether the city experiences another wave of infections, but also on whether the state decides to raise income taxes to shore up pandemic-related budget shortfalls.

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Japan’s vacant rural homes | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Japan has an increasing number of vacant homes — a problem that’s set to persist because of an aging and shrinking population that has left many towns and villages empty.

“Japan faces significant economic and social impact effects from demographic (aging) over the next three decades,” Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit, wrote in an October note.

Abandoned properties in the world’s third-largest economy are among the least-discussed side effects of the country’s demographic changes. But it’s getting more attention given the increasing number of affordable — and sometimes free — houses put up for sale online on websites called “akiya banks.”

Akiya is the Japanese term for vacant homes. Many of such sites are set up by local governments and communities to better manage the supply and demand for the growing stock of empty houses in their respective towns.

Properties listed on Tochigi’s “akiya bank”

On one website, several homes are free, with the buyer having to pay only taxes and fees such as agent commissions.

“This is usually because the owners cannot take care of the property anymore or do not want to pay the property tax that applies in Japan for a home that they do not use,” said real estate site REthink Tokyo in an October report.

The free homes also usually require major refurbishment because they are old and run down. But some local governments — such as the Tochigi and Nagano prefectures — offer subsidies for renovation work on vacant houses.

For vacant homes that are not free, prices can range from 500,000 Japanese yen ($4,428.50) to close to 20 million yen ($177,140) depending on location, age and condition of the house, according to the listings seen by CNBC.

Suburbs, larger towns — and Tokyo

Across Japan, the number of vacant homes stood at 8.196 million in 2013, representing around 13.52 percent of the country’s total housing stock, according to latest data by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

The 2013 figures were higher than 2008′s 7.568 million empty houses, which accounted for about 13.14 percent of Japan’s total homes that year, according to the data. By 2033, the proportion of vacant homes in Japan is expected to grow to surpass 20 percent, according to Fujitsu Research Institute.

Japan’s vacant homes are largely concentrated in rural towns, but the phenomenon has started to show up in the suburbs and larger cities, according to various media reports such as The Japan Times.

In Tokyo, the proportion of vacant homes stood at 11.1 percent in 2013 — among the lowest in the country, according to official statistics. But that number is expected to grow above 20 percent by 2033, said Fujitsu Research Institute.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/japan-free-homes-empty-houses-given-away-and-sold-cheap.html

 

Housing Inventory Tracking | Bedford Hills Real Estate

I love Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk blog

Update: Watching existing home “for sale” inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.

And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.

And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.

Inventory, on a national basis, was unchanged year-over-year (YoY) in July, this followed 37 consecutive months with a YoY decline.

The graph below shows the YoY change for non-contingent inventory in Houston, Las Vegas, Sacramento (through August) and also Phoenix (through July) and total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (through July).

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-q5HBzFd0njM/W5q8p0StEDI/AAAAAAAAwAU/rQCgnKAobAsQ2a5xzlfVUzGANmCIoFzDgCLcBGAs/s320/InventoryPreAug2018.PNG

Click on graph for larger image.

This shows the YoY change in inventory for Houston, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Sacramento.  The black line is the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR.

Note that inventory in Sacramento was up 22% year-over-year in July (inventory was still very low), and has increased YoY for eleven consecutive months.

Also note that inventory was up 20% YoY in Las Vegas in August (red), the second consecutive month with a YoY increase.

Houston is a special case, and inventory was up for several years due to lower oil prices, but declined YoY recently as oil prices increased.  Inventory was up slightly in Houston in August (but the YoY change might be distorted by Hurricane Harvey last year).

Inventory is a key for the housing market, and I am watching inventory for the impact of the new tax law and higher mortgage rates on housing.   I expect national inventory will be up YoY at the end of 2018 (but still be low).

This is not comparable to late 2005 when inventory increased sharply signaling the end of the housing bubble, but it does appear that inventory is bottoming nationally (but still very low).

 

Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#DgT40fTJtpLyGmFz.99

Builder Confidence Rises in June | Bedford Hills Real Estate

After holding steady for the past four months, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes rose two points in June to a level of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This marks the highest reading since January 2016.

HMI_June

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components posted gains in June. The component gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 64, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to 70, and the component measuring buyer traffic climbed three points to 47.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/06/builder-confidence-rises-in-june/

CHICAGO HOME SALES JUMP TO 9-YEAR HIGH | Bedford Hills Real Estate

The city that used to be second is staging something of a comeback, at least as far as home sales are concerned.

Chicagonow.com reports this: After a weak March and several other months of languishing sales activity the Chicago real estate market came roaring back in April with the highest home sales in 9 years and the largest year over year gain in 9 months. Check out the graph below to see these numbers in their historic context. All the April data points are flagged in red and the blue line is a 12 month moving average. However, that blue line is still not quite flashing an upward trend again.

April Chicago home sales were up a whopping 10.1% over last year but when the Illinois Association of Realtors announces the official numbers in a little less than 2 weeks they are going to report it as a 7.9% increase.

 

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http://www.builderonline.com/newsletter/chicago-home-sales-jump-to-9-year-high_c

U.S. Housing Market Recovery Remains on Track | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released its updated Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®) showing the U.S. housing market continuing to slowly stabilize with two additional metro areas entering their outer range of stable housing activity: Scranton and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The national MiMi value stands at 81.2, indicating a housing market that is on its outer range of stable housing activity, while showing an improvement of +0.27% from July to August and a three-month improvement of +2.54%. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value has improved +6.16%. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 37%, but remains significantly off from its high of 121.7.

News Facts:

  • Twenty-nine of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values in a stable range, with North Dakota (96.9), District of Columbia (103.9), Hawaii (93.5), Montana (93.2), and Utah (90.3) ranking in the top five.
  • Forty-seven of the 100 metro areas have MiMi values in a stable range, with Fresno (99.4), Austin (96.6), Honolulu (94.1), Salt Lake City (93.3) and Los Angeles (93) ranking in the top five.
  • The most improving states month-over-month were Ohio (+1.30%), South Carolina (+1.20%), New Jersey (+0.97%), Colorado (+0.92%) and Georgia (+0.83%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Florida (+14.07%), Oregon (+12.02%), Nevada (11.75%), Colorado (+11.28%), and Washington (+10.41%).
  • The most improving metro areas month-over-month were Akron, OH (+1.47%), Palm Bay, FL (+1.28%), Cleveland, OH (+1.27%), Lakeland, FL (+1.26%) and Denver, CO (+1.21%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving metro areas were Orlando, FL (+18.07%), Cape Coral, FL (+17.77%), Tampa, FL (+16.00%), Denver, CO (14.73) and Palm Bay, FL (+14.64%).
  • In August, 48 of the 50 states and 98 of the top 100 metros were showing an improving three month trend. The same time last year, 35 of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and 71 of the top 100 metro areas were showing an improving three-month trend.

Quote attributable to Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer:

“The nation’s housing market continues to improve riding the wave of the best year in home sales since 2007. With the MiMi purchase applications indicator at its highest level in more than seven years we expect home sales to remain strong. Low mortgage rates are fueling the recovery across the country. Places like Denver, Austin and Salt Lake City, and most markets in California, are seeing robust home purchase demand and in many cases double-digit growth over last year.”

“Buoyed by strong employment growth, housing supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, which is driving house prices higher. Fortunately, low mortgage interest rates are helping to keep homebuying affordable for some prospective homebuyers. Nationwide, housing markets are getting back to their long term benchmark averages, but they still have room for improvement. We’re expecting housing to sustain its momentum going into yearend, but we’re going to need stronger income growth to carry housing throughout 2016.”

 

 

 

 

May Gains for Residential Construction Spending | Bedford Hills Real Estate

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total residential construction spending for May increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $366.1 billion. On a month-over-month basis, multifamily spending was $48.7 billion, up by 0.2% over the revised April estimate, while the single-family spending was $209.4 billion, an increase of 0.03% from April. Annually, multifamily spending rose 20.8% from the revised 2014 estimate and the spending on single-family construction was 11.2% higher than May 2014.

The Census construction spending index, which is shown in the graph below (the base is January 2000), indicates that both the monthly and annual increase were largely driven by the steady increase in multifamily construction spending. The pace of multifamily spending is gradually slowing. NAHB anticipates an increase in single-family spending in 2015.

Slide1

 

The pace of nonresidential construction spending was also up by 1.1% monthly in May, and the annual increase from the revised May 2014 data was around 8.2%. The largest contribution to this year-over-year nonresidential spending gain was made by the class of manufacturing-related construction (69.5% increase), followed by lodging (30.6% increase) and amusement/recreation (29.8% increase).

Slide2

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/07/may-gains-for-residential-construction-spending/

Mortgage Rates Up | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher amid a strong jobs report and bringing mortgage rates back to where they were at the start of 2015. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has averaged below 4 percent since the week ending November 13, 2014.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.86 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending March 12, 2015, up from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.37 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.10 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.03 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.38 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.01 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.96 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.09 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.46 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.44 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.48 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for theRegional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quotes
Attributed to Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.86 percent for this week following a strong labor market report, essentially bring rates back to where they were at the start of the year. The U.S. economy created 295,000 jobs in February while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent in January, both outperforming market expectations.

Firefighters Battle Two Bedford Home Blazes Within A Day | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Bedford Hills fire

Bedford Hills fire

Firefighters in and near Bedford were busy on Tuesday battling two house fires in town, both of which were in the Bedford Hills Fire District.

Bedford Hills Fire Chief Joseph Lombardo said that his department responded shortly before midnight Tuesday for a chimney fire, which was at a home at 98 Buxton Road. A firefighter, who arrived in just minutes, observed heavy fire on the roof, Lombardo said, and the fire extended to the attic and roof line.

It took about an hour and a half to get the fire under control, Lombardo recalled. One firefighter was injured due to having fallen on ice, according to the chief.

The fire was caused by a malfunctioning chimney, Lombardo explained. Mutual aid was provided, according to the chief, by fire departments from Katonah, Mount Kisco, Goldens Bridge and Banksville. The Katonah Bedford Hills Volunteer Ambulance Corps (KBHVAC) and Westchester EMS were also on scene, he noted.

The blaze caused the home’s roof to collapse. The home is located at Buxton Gorge Farm, which traces its history to circa 1760. The farm is a short drive away from downtown Bedford Hills.

 

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http://bedford.dailyvoice.com/police-fire/firefighters-battle-two-bedford-home-blazes-within-day