Tag Archives: Bedford Hills NY Real Estate

Bedford Hills NY Real Estate

Single-Family Housing Starts Up 9% in 2016 | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Housing starts rebounded in December, as monthly volatility for multifamily starts continued. Total starts were up 11.3%, rising to a 1.226 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. However, single-family starts posted a small monthly decline in December, albeit recording the fourth strongest monthly pace since the end of the recession.

According to estimates from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, single-family starts declined 4% to a 795,000 annual rate. For 2016 as a whole, single-family construction improved 9.3% over the 2015 level of starts. And as measured on a three-month moving average, single-family starts are at a post-cycle high, as seen on the graph below. This increase is consistent with recent growth in the NAHB/Wells Fargo measure of single-family builder confidence.

Single-family permits also point to more growth in 2017. Single-family permits grew 4.7% in December, reaching an annual rate of 817,000, the fastest pace in the current cycle.

Multifamily development was the primary reason the headline starts number rose in December. Total multifamily starts were up 57% for the month at a 431,000 annual rate, after posting a nearly 40% drop in November. Monthly volatility for multifamily starts has been a factor in the data since August. Nonetheless, for 2016 the apartment sector realized a small production decline for the year, in line with our expectations that 2015 will be the peak year of development for multifamily housing in this cycle.

 

Focusing on housing’s economic impact, in December 57% of homes under construction were multifamily (604,000). This multifamily count is 8% higher than a year ago. There were 450,000 single-family units under construction, a gain of 7% from this time in 2015. This is the highest count of single-family units under construction since 2008.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/01/single-family-housing-starts-up-9-in-2016/

U.S. new home sales jump to four-month high | Bedford Hills Real Estate

New U.S. single-family home sales rose more than forecast to a four-month high in November, likely as expectations of higher mortgage rates drew buyers into the market.

Other data on Friday showed consumer sentiment holding at near a 13-year high this month as Americans anticipated that a stronger economy would create more jobs.

The Commerce Department said new home sales increased 5.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast single-family home sales, which account for about 9.5 percent of overall home sales, rising 2.1 percent to a 575,000-unit rate last month.

New home sales, which are derived from building permits, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to large revisions. Sales were up 16.5 percent from a year ago.

Separately, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index edged up to a reading of 98.2 from 98 earlier this month. That was the highest reading since January 2004.

The U.S. dollar .DXY pared gains and was trading lower against a basket of currencies after the data. Prices of U.S. Treasuries were trading higher while U.S. stock indexes were mixed.

Mortgage rates have been rising rapidly in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election, which economists say could be pulling procrastinators into the market in fear of further increases in borrowing costs.

Trump’s plan to boost infrastructure spending and cut taxes is expected to stoke inflation. A report on Wednesday showed sales of previously owned homes rose to near a 10-year high in November.

INVENTORY RISE

Since the election, the interest rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage has increased more than 70 basis points to an average of 4.30 percent, the highest level since April 2014, according to data from mortgage finance firm Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates are likely to rise further after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate last week by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. The U.S. central bank forecast three rate hikes for next year.

Higher borrowing costs come at a time when house price increases are outstripping wage gains, which could make purchases unaffordable for many first-time buyers.

 

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http://www.marketbeat.com/stories.aspx?story=http%3a%2f%2ffeeds.reuters.com%2f~r%2freuters%2fbusinessNews%2f~3%2f96u5-iu_kio%2fus-usa-economy-idUSKBN14C1NI

Share of Past Due Mortgages Drop Significantly | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Information released by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) indicates that the share of all 1-4 family mortgage loans past due has returned to a level of normality. According to the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey, the share of all 1-4 family mortgages considered past due fell by 14 basis points to 4.52 percent. One year ago 4.99 percent of loans were considered past due.

The current share of loans past due has fallen significantly from its recession-related peak of 10.1 percent in 2010. Moreover, the current share of past due mortgages is below the average percentage between 1980, the beginning of the series, and 2006, 4.8 percent. Additionally, the average between 1987 and 2006 was 4.6 percent.

presentation1

Deeper analysis finds that the underlying composition of mortgages past due has improved, but has not fully recovered. Mortgages considered past due include those that are 30-59 days past due, 60-89 days late, and 90 or more days delinquent. It excludes mortgages that have entered foreclosure.

The figure below presents the distribution of mortgages past due by the 3 categories of lateness. Currently, about half of past due mortgages, 52 percent, are 30-59 days past due, 17 percent are 60-89 days past due, while 31 percent are 90 or more days delinquent. The present composition is better than the distribution at the peak in 2010, when mortgages 90 or more days past due accounted for half, 50 percent, of all past due mortgages.

However, the composition of past due mortgages on average between 1980 and 2006 was even more concentrated in the 30-59 day late category. On average, over the 1980-2006 period, mortgages 30-59 days past due accounted 67 percent of all past due mortgages while mortgages 90 or more days past due represented 16 percent. Also at 16 percent, the share of mortgages 60-89 days past due between 1980 and 2006 is similar to its current percentage of 17 percent.

presentation2

 

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/share-of-past-due-mortgages-reaches-post-recession-low/

Westchester sales up 2% | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Single family home sales rose just over 2 percent in Westchester County compared to the third quarter in 2015, according to report released Tuesday from the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors.

Westchester lagged behind other counties in the HGAR report, which also incorporates Putnam, Rockland and Orange. For the four-county region, sales rose 7 percent compared to the third quarter in 2015. For the year, sales in all four counties are 15 percent higher than last year.

“The real estate market is healthy,’’ said Marcene Hedayati, HGAR President and part owner and manager of William Raveis Legends Realty Group in Tarrytown. “It’s growing, and transaction are up. Prices are flat, which is good because we don’t want to see some sort of wild market where prices keep going higher and we have a situation like we did in the early 2000s.”

The median sale price for a single family home in Westchester County fell 1.2 percent to $668,500, according to the HGAR Report. The median sale price in 2015 was $676,500.

Inventory, however, continues to fall in Westchester County and other regions. In Westchester, inventory fell 18.2 percent compared to the third quarter in 2015. Inventory dropped 20 percent over the four counties compared to third quarter in 2015. In Putnam County, inventory fell a staggering 29.4 percent.

“Inventory has been declining for more than a year, but it has not yet put pressure on prices,’’ Hedayati said. “I’m not sure at what point that will happen. We keep thinking it’s going to happen, but it hasn’t done so yet. We’re also having fewer buyers coming out as well. I think we’ll be able to tell more in the spring market what impact lower inventory is having on prices.”

Hedayati also said most pricing sectors continue to perform well, except for the high end markets.

Westchester County continues to attract growing families looking to move from the city. Millennials are finally starting to see the value in home ownership, but they are also seeking properties that are move-in ready and require little work and repair.

“There’s something for everybody on the market now,’’ Hedayati said. “Buyers are a little more particular than they have been in the past. Buyers are much more sensitive. They are reluctant to buy homes that require much work. And staging has become a huge factor. Homes that are priced right and staged well are getting a lot of attention.”

 

 

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http://chappaqua.dailyvoice.com/real-estate/single-family-home-sales-rise-slightly-in-third-quarter-in-westchester/685100/

Sales of previously owned homes decline | Bedford Hills Real Estate

United States Existing Home Sales  1968-2016 

Sales of previously owned houses in the United States declined 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5330 thousand in August of 2016. It is the second consecutive decline, missing market expectations of a 1.1 percent gain. Sales of single family homes shrank 2.3 percent which those of condos increased 10.5 percent. The average price fell 1 percent and the months’ worth of supply went down to 4.6. Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3868.24 Thousand from 1968 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970. Existing Home Sales in the United States is reported by the National Association of Realtors.

United States Existing Home Sales
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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales

 

States with the Fastest Growing Construction Employment | Bedford Hills Real Estate

NAHB’s analysis of July regional employment data from the BLS shows that states with the highest annual growth rates of total construction employment are Iowa (16.52%), Hawaii (12.89%), Idaho (12.63%), and Colorado (10.88%), compared to the national average growth rate of 4.55%.

construction_july16

 

Thirty-nine states and District of Columbia experienced positive year-over-year changes in construction employment in July. On a month-over-month basis, around 50% of states reported gains in construction employment in July, with the largest increases registered by Idaho (4.65%). Eleven states lost construction jobs since a year ago. The largest construction job losses were recorded by the energy producing states, which are deeply affected by low oil prices, such as North Dakota, Wyoming, and Kansas.

The number of new residential housing starts depends on both supply and demand considerations. Housing supply is dependent, in part, on the ability of builders to obtain and contract with workers.

employment_july16

Regional employment is an important element of determining housing demand. The BLS state level data suggest that all but six states reported an annual gain in payroll employment, with the exception of West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. The top three states with the largest gains were all in the West and include Idaho (3.37%), Oregon (3.27%), and Florida (3.09%).

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/states-with-the-fastest-growing-construction-employment/

Mortgage rates average 3.44% | Bedford NY Realtor

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly lower for the week helping to spur ongoing refinance activity.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.44 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending September 8, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.46 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.90 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.76 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.77 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.10 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.81 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.83 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.91 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 2 basis points to 3.44 percent this week. As mortgage rates continue to range between 3.41 and 3.48 percent, many are taking advantage of the historically low rates by refinancing. Since the Brexit vote, the refinance share of mortgage activity has remained above 60 percent.”

Case Shiller home prices rise | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Home prices are still rising, but not as drastically as before. Some hot markets are even seeing a cooling. Could home prices be near the end of their upward trend, or are they simply changing gears?

National home prices increased by 5% annually in May, the same as the previous month, however the 10-City and 20-City Composite both slipped in annual increases, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, formerly known as S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

“Home prices continue to appreciate across the country,” said David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices index committee managing director and chairman. “Overall, housing is doing quite well.”

“In addition to strong prices, sales of existing homes reached the highest monthly level since 2007 as construction of new homes showed continuing gains,” Blitzer said. “The SCE Housing Expectations Survey published by the New York Federal Reserve Bank shows that consumers expect home prices to continue rising, though at a somewhat slower pace.”

The 10-City Composite increased annually by 4.4%, however that’s slightly less thanApril’s 4.7% increase. Similarly, the 20-City Composite increased annually by 5.2%, a slight decrease from April’s 5.4%.

“Today’s Case-Shiller data paints a picture of a fairly calm and consistent market that looks much the same today as it has for the past few months,” Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell said. “But while the market does look pretty stable from 10,000 feet, a closer look reveals a number of imbalances that are keeping the heat on the housing market this summer.”

“Sellers are in the driver’s seat, as buyers contend with fierce competition and very fast-moving markets,” Gudell said. “Demand is sky high and the number of homes sold is rising, even as inventory of homes for sale keeps falling.”

Portland, Seattle and Denver were among the cities with the highest annual gains among the top 20 cities over each of the last four months.

Readers of HousingWire will not find this surprising, as a deeper look into a report fromBlack Knight yesterday showed that home prices are increasing more in the mountainous areas of the West and in the Pacific Northwest.

“Regional patterns seen in home prices are shifting,” Blitzer said. “Over the last year, the Pacific Northwest has been quite strong while prices in the previously strong spots of San Diego, San Francisco and Los Angeles saw more modest increases.”

“The two hottest areas during the housing boom were Florida and the Southwest,” he said. “Miami and Tampa have recovered in the last few months while Las Vegas and Phoenix remain weak. When home prices began to recover, New York and Washington saw steady price growth; now both are among the weakest areas in the country.”

In May, Portland increased the most 12.5% annually, followed by Seattle at 10.7% and Denver at 9.5%.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37621-case-shiller-may-home-prices-rise-at-modest-rate?eid=311691494&bid=1479278

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Climb | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a faster pace in the year ended November, underscoring the shortage of supply amid steady demand.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 5.8 percent from a year earlier, the biggest advance since July 2014, a report from the group showed Tuesday in New York. The median projection of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 5.7 percent gain. Nationally, prices rose 5.3 percent year-over-year.

Low inventories are boosting property values, helping support household wealth for homeowners and offsetting some of the damage from the drop in stock prices. While mortgage rates are expected to stay low, faster wage growth is needed to bring homes within reach of more Americans, underpinning the industry’s recovery this year.

“There’s a positive underlying picture in the trend in home prices,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who correctly projected the gain. “As long as demand is strong, the price appreciation will persist. We expect it to continue this year.”

Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 4.9 percent to 6 percent. The October reading showed a year-over-year advance of 5.5 percent.

Another report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed prices increased 0.5 percent in November from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The gauge measures transactions for single-family properties financed with mortgages owned or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It doesn’t provide specific prices.

Three-Month Average

The S&P/Case-Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the November figure was also influenced by transactions in October and September.

All 20 cities in the index showed a year-over-year gain, led by an 11.1 percent increase in Portland, Oregon. Chicago had the smallest increase at 2 percent. Gains in November accelerated in 14 cities from the prior month, with indexes for Dallas, Denver and Portland. Oregon, reaching record highs.

The year-over-year gauge provides better indications of trends in prices, the group has said. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.

Borrowing Costs

“Home prices extended their gains, supported by continued low mortgage rates, tight supplies and an improving labor market,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “The consumer portion of the economy is doing well.”

On a monthly basis, home prices in the 20-city index adjusted for seasonal variations climbed 0.9 percent. The Bloomberg survey median called for a 0.8 percent increase.

The month-over-month gain was led by Charlotte, North Carolina, followed by Detroit.

Unadjusted prices in the 20-city gauge rose 0.1 percent from the previous month.

By lowering household wealth, the slump in stock prices will subtract about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point from consumer spending this year, according to a research note e-mailed today by economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. They projected increasing home prices will make up for some of the decline, limiting the overall reduction in consumption to 0.2 percent.

 

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/home-prices-in-u-s-cities-rise-at-fastest-pace-since-july-2014

No Relief in Sight on Rents | Bedford Hills Real Estate

The long anticipated slowdown in rent increases from record numbers of new multi-family projects opening for business has yet to materialize as rental demand drove rents to record levels in the first three quarters of 2015, sending the national apartment market soaring to its strongest year in a decade.

According to data from Axiometrics, a specialist in apartment market research and analysis:

  • Annual effective rent growth of 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015 represented a 7-basis-point (bps) increase from the figure of one year earlier (also rounded to 4.7%), though it was 35 bps lower than the 5.2% of the third quarter of 2015. The fourth-quarter rate is the highest year-end figure since 2005, when effective rent growth was 5.8%.
  • Rent growth has been 4.7% or above for five straight quarters, even though a three-quarter streak of at least 5.0% growth was broken. Never in Axiometrics’ 20-year history has annual effective rent growth been at 4.7% or above for such a long period.
  • Quarter-over-quarter effective rent growth was -0.6% in the fourth-quarter, continuing a trend of negative rent growth at the end of the year. That rate was a 32-bps decrease from the 0.3% reported in 4Q14 and marked the only quarter of 2015 in which the rent-growth rate decreased from the corresponding quarter of 2014. It should be noted that quarter-to-quarter rent growth is normally negative in the fourth quarter due to seasonality.
  • Average national rent was $1,244 for the fourth quarter of 2015, a $54 increase from the average of $1,188 in the fourth quarter of 2014.
QUARTERLY EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Quarter 2012 2013 2014 2015
First 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9%
Second 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Third 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 2.0%
Fourth -0.6% -0.9% -0.3% -0.6%
 Source: Axiometrics Inc.

 

“Quarters 1-3 were the most robust period we have seen since before the Great Recession,” said Jay Denton, Axiometrics’ Senior Vice President of Analytics. “Much of the fourth-quarter moderation can be attributed to several Western markets that experienced double-digit rent growth for most of the year but could not sustain that pace.”

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/01/no-relief-in-sight-on-rents/