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Bedford Corners NY Homes

More Americans flee high tax states | Bedford Corners Real Estate

More and more Americans are fleeing high-tax states – from California to Hawaii to New Jersey to New York – and relocating elsewhere in the hopes of holding onto some more of their hard-earned cash.

Problem is that’s pushing up the cost of living in the states they’re fleeing to, according to the country’s largest real estate trade group.

They’re going to nearby secondary states that used to be “affordable” – states like Washington, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona, for example, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS(r).

And it isn’t just the working class looking to move to lower-tax states.

Taxes are often a top consideration particularly when someone is relocating for work or looking to retire says tax expert Bob Meighan, a former executive with Intuit. The biggest tax you’re going to face, after the IRS, is the one your state presents.

That’s why Florida is a big draw “particularly among northeast residents currently living in high property-tax states such as New York, New Jersey (the highest in the country), and Connecticut,” says Yun. “In Florida, you get both lower taxes and a warmer climate.”

Last year, these were the ten highest income tax states, according to TurboTax (*These rates do not include local taxes.):

  • California 13.3%
  • Hawaii 11%
  • Oregon 9.9%
  • Minnesota 9.85%
  • Iowa 8.98%
  • New Jersey 8.97%
  • Vermont 8.95%
  • District of Columbia 8.95%
  • New York 8.82%
  • Wisconsin 7.65%

read more…

https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/more-americans-fleeing-high-tax-states

Freddie Mac real estate predictions | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Freddie Mac November Forecast: Expect Modest Housing Market Growth in 2019


According to Freddie Mac’s  November Forecast, the biggest unknown about the housing market next year is whether current negative trends, such as lack of housing supply, will persist or the market will adjust to the shock of higher mortgage rates and resume modest growth.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Almost all the trends in the U.S. housing market have been negative in recent months as housing market activity continues to adjust to higher mortgage rates.”Khater added, “If new home sales are to resume growth in 2019, builders may have to shift their focus to more modestly priced homes and smaller sized homes to help offset housing affordability concerns. But with cost pressures pinching profitability, this will be a significant challenge.” 

Forecast Highlights 

Expect GDP growth to average 3 percent in 2018 before slowing to 2.4 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020.

Expect total home sales to decrease 1.6 percent to 6.02 million in 2018 before slowly regaining momentum and increasing 1 percent to 6.08 million in 2019 and 2 percent to 6.20 million in 2020.  

Expect home prices to increase 5.1 percent in 2018 with the rate of growth moderating to 4.3 percent in 2019 and 2.9 percent in 2020.

Expect single-family mortgage originations to decline 9.9 percent year-over-year to $1.63 trillion in 2018, falling slightly to $1.62 trillion in 2019 and dropping once more to $1.60 trillion in 2020. This is the result of shrinking refinance activity.Adjusted for inflation in 2017 dollars, an estimated $14.2 billion in net home equity was cashed out during the refinance of conventional prime-credit home mortgages in the third quarter of 2018, down from $18.3 billion a year earlier and substantially less than the peak cash-out refinance volume of $102 billion during the second quarter of 2006.

Lumber prices drop 10.3% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Softwood lumber prices fell 10.3% in October—the largest drop since May 2011—according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The producer price index for softwood lumber has fallen 21.2% since setting the cycle and all-time high in June (see below). Even after the decrease, however, the index currently sits just 4.7% lower than the prior-cycle high set in 2004.

The final demand price index for OSB has followed a path similar to that of softwood lumber over the last three months.

Since climbing 38.1% in the first seven months of 2018, OSB prices have fallen 16.6%. The price index for OSB is now 15.2% and 15.7% higher than it was to start 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Residential construction goods input prices increased 0.4% in October and have now risen 7.5% over the last twelve months. The index decreased only twice during that period, by 0.1% and 0.5% in December 2017 and August 2018, respectively. Year-to-date residential construction goods input price increases in 2018 (+5.6) continue to outpace the increase during the same period in 2017 (+2.9%).

Gypsum prices fell 1.6% in October, continuing what has been a relatively volatile year. The price index for gypsum products is 6.3% higher than it was to start 2018, but the year-to-date price increase masks large fluctuations within the year. Consecutive-month increases of 5.4% and 6.1% have been partially offset by two-month decreases of 3.3% and 1.8%.

The last several large increases in the gypsum price index has been foreseeable, as large wallboard producers sent out price increase announcements in the March-May and October-December periods. These announcements informed customers that wallboard prices would increase effective as of January or June/July, depending on the announcement date. Examples of such announcements may be found here and here.

Ready-mix concrete prices declined 0.5% in October. After a large price increase (relative to historical data) in early 2018, prices of ready-mix concrete dropped and have remained essentially unchanged since July.

read more…

Softwood Lumber Price Decline Largest in Seven Years

Home builder confidence rises | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in October on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder confidence levels have held in the high 60s since June.

Builders continue to view solid housing demand, fueled by a growing economy and a nearly 50-year low for unemployment. Lumber price declines for three straight months from elevated levels earlier this summer have also helped to reduce some cost pressures, but builders will need to manage supply-side costs to keep home prices affordable.

Favorable economic conditions and demographic tailwinds should continue to support demand, but housing affordability has become a challenge due to ongoing price and interest rate increases. Unless housing affordability stabilizes, the market risks losing additional momentum as we head into 2019.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 74 and the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased a single point to 75. Meanwhile, the metric charting buyer traffic registered a four-point uptick to 53.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose three points to 57 and the South edged up one point to 71. The West held steady at 74 and the Midwest fell two points to 57.

read more…

NYC prices keep falling | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Bloomberg News

Big Apple home buyers are wary of tax reform, and they’re saying so with their checkbooks. The median Manhattan home sold for around $1.1 million during the third quarter, according to a report released Tuesday, as prices took a 4.5% annual dip partially in response to changing policies in Washington.

Nearly 3,000 homes traded hands between July and the end of September, which is roughly 11% fewer than the same period last year, according to the report from Douglas Elliman Real Estate. And as prices and sales volume continue to decline, more homes hit the market. That pushed inventory to nearly 7,000 units, or about 13% more than 2017.

The market’s strength is likely being sapped by uncertainty regarding the new federal tax law, which hit high-tax states like New York hardest by limiting the amount of property taxes that can be deducted on federal tax returns. The luxury and new development sectors were hit hardest as median prices fell roughly 9% with units sitting on the market for roughly twice as long as more modest offerings. Rising interest rates are also making it more expensive to purchase, especially for lower-priced units as prospective buyers are more likely to take out a mortgage. More generally, wage growth has not kept up with rising housing prices, especially in New York City, creating a disconnect between rosy top-line economic figures and the real estate market, which is still correcting itself after a white-hot run that peaked in 2014.

“You throw that all in a cauldron,” said Jonathan Miller, head of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which prepared the report for Douglas Elliman, “and it is putting a drag on the pace of the market.”

read more…

https://www.crainsnewyork.com

crains.com

California panel approves historic plan to require solar panels on new homes | Bedford Corners Real Estate

New homes and low-rise apartment buildings across California would include solar panels under first-in-the-nation rules approved Wednesday by the California Energy Commission.

The rules now go to the state Building Standards Commission, where they were expected to easily win approval.

“This is groundbreaking,” said Pierre Delforge, senior scientist for the Natural Resources Defense Council. He said the rules “will save energy, lower customer bills, keep homes comfortable in increasing heat waves and reduce pollution from California’s homes and buildings.”

The requirements, which would go into effect in 2020, could add more than $10,000 to the construction costs of new homes, the commission says. Some builders say the costs could be more than twice that.

But the commission and most builders agree that the costs should be more than made up in energy savings over the life of the solar energy system. And the plan has drawn generally positive reviews from the construction industry.

“Adoption of these standards represents a quantum leap in statewide buildings standards,” said Robert Raymer, technical director for the California Building Industry Association. “No other state in the nation will have anything close to this, and you can bet 49 other states will be watching to see what happens here in California.”

Some conservatives were not so enthusiastic, noting that the state already has some of the nation’s most expensive housing markets. A National Association of Realtors survey for the fourth quarter of 2017 listed four California markets among the nation’s five most expensive.

San Jose topped the list with a median price in excess of $1.2 million.

“The state’s housing crisis is real,” State Assemblyman Brian Dahle said. “California’s affordability problem is making it more and more difficult for people to afford to live here.”

The commission projects that more than 100,000 single-family homes and almost 50,000 multi-family buildings will be built across the state in 2020. Raymer acknowledged that the ambitious plan will probably roll in with some “hiccups.” Less than 20% of homes built in the state now include the panels.

The rules also address insulation and appliance efficiency. And they include efforts to increase battery storage and increase use of electricity over natural gas. Use of batteries to store solar energy will be crucial to cost savings, Raymer said.

“Battery storage technology will allow the homeowner to capture the cheaper electricity … the middle of the day,” Raymer said. “And keep that power on-site for use in the early evening hours when electrical rates go way up.”

The rules apply to building permits issued after Jan. 1, 2020. There are some exceptions to the solar panel rule, such as homes that would be shaded by trees or buildings or when roofs are too small for the panels.

Abigail Ross, CEO of the national Solar Energy Industries Association, said solar prices in the state have fallen by more than 50% in the last five years.

“Other states may not be ready for this step yet,” she said. “But this is a precedent-setting policy, one that will bring enormous benefits and cost savings to consumers.”

For more than a decade, the commission has been operating under goals that would provide “net-zero” energy for new residents by 2020 and for new commercial buildings a decade later.

 

read more…

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/05/09/california-solar-panels-state-may-require-them-new-homes/594364002/

San Francisco’s housing market may have peaked | Bedford Corners Real Estate

The signs and numbers are already lining up.

According to Federal Housing Finance Agency data on our glorious Housing Bubble 2, house prices are doing what they’ve been doing for years: they’re surging. In the first quarter, they rose 6.0% year-over-year.

“The steep, multi-year rise in U.S. home prices continued in the first quarter,” explained FHFA Deputy Chief Economist Andrew Leventis on Wednesday. So house price are going up everywhere. Well, not everywhere.

In the once hottest metropolitan statistical area where house prices have surged in the double digits for years – San Francisco, Redwood City, and the city of South San Francisco which make up the tip of the Peninsula – was the sole exception: there, house prices fell 2.5% in Q1 year-over-year.

It was the first decline since Q2 2011, when the last housing bust ended. This chart shows the year-over-year percentage change per quarter of the FHFA’s House Price Index (HPI). Note how many times prices increased between 10% and 20%-plus:US San Francisco house price changes FHFA 2017 Q1Wolf Street

The HPI is based on data from mortgages that lenders have sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or that were guaranteed by them. These mortgages are capped – for the San Francisco area, at $636,150. In San Francisco itself, the median house price is about $1.35 million and the median condo price about $1.1 million, according to Paragon Real Estate  in San Francisco. With a 20% down-payment, the home could be priced at $800,000 to qualify. I know buyers who made a much bigger down payment – given how little their money earns at the bank – to get a conforming mortgage because they wanted to benefit from the lower rates.

This is what the index looks like, including the ominous kink at the top, the first such sharp kink since the end of Housing Bubble 1:

US San Francisco house prices FHFA 2017 Q1Wolf Street

In terms of price movements, how close is the HPI to the median price?

  • During Housing Bubble 1, the HPI double-peaked in Q3 2006 and Q2 2007. By comparison, the median price in San Francisco (as opposed to the larger area the HPI covers) peaked in November 2007.
  • The HPI plunged 23% and bottomed out in Q2 2011. The median price in San Francisco plunged 27% and bottomed out in Q1 2012.
  • The HPI then soared 83% to peak in Q4 2016. The median price in San Francisco soared over 100% – and stalled in early 2016…

“Stalled” may be too optimistic a term. Paragon Real Estate notes that the three-month moving average of the February-April median price of condos was about flat year-over-year with 2016 and 2015; so two years of essentially no movement. And house prices fell from the same period in 2016.

So the turning points of the HPI were leading indicators of turning points in the median price in San Francisco, though the HPI’s movements were less steep, plunging a little less during the bust, and soaring a little less during the boom. Now San Francisco’s housing market is into the next phase.

CoreLogic’s data corroborates the lumpy nature of the San Francisco housing market; the median price in April for all types of homes dropped 4% year-over-year to $1.3 million, with sales volume dropping 12%.

And here may be part of the reason for the lumpiness in the housing market: The construction boom has been throwing thousands of new housing units – all condos and apartments – on the market every year in recent years, and will continue to do so, just as employment growth, according to California’s Employment Development Department, has slowed down sharply:

US San Francisco employment 2017 04Wolf Street

Note that the “labor force” is based on the number of residents in San Francisco; “employment” is based on the number of jobs in San Francisco, including those jobs filled by people who commute into the city.

The labor force in San Francisco fell to 559,100 in April, the lowest since June 2016 and up only 4,500 year-over-year. This is the crucial indicator for housing demand. Employment fell to 543,900 – essentially flat in 2017 and up 7000 year-over-year. So far in 2017, year-over-year employment increases ranged from 5,000 to 8,700 jobs per month. This might sound like a lot, but…

  • The year-over-year increases in January-April 2016 ranged from 12,900 to 17,000 a month.
  • The year-over-year increases in January-April 2015 ranged from 21,100 to 22,800 a month.

This chart shows the monthly employment gains and losses on a year-over-year basis going back to 2009. Note the sharp decline in gains that started in early 2015:

US San Francisco employment growth_2017 04Wolf Street

Even as employment gains are tapering off, thousands of condos and apartments have come on the market and continue to come on the market every year as a result of a historic construction boom, with new towers sprouting like mushrooms in certain parts of the City. Almost all of them are high-end. So in addition to the market facing a dose of supply-and-demand reality, it also faces a problem of affordability, with not enough people making enough money even in the tech sector to buy or rent at those dizzying levels.

 

read more…

http://www.businessinsider.com/san-franciscos-housing-market-may-have-peaked-2017-5

 

Mortgage rates average 4.16% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the seventh consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending December 15, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.97 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.37 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.22 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.19 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.17 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.03 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“As was almost-universally expected, the FOMC closed the year with its one-and-only rate hike of 2016. The consensus of the committee points to more rate hikes in 2017. However, the experience of this year combined with the policy uncertainty that accompanies a new Administration suggests a wait-and-see outlook.

“This week’s mortgage rate survey was completed prior to the FOMC announcement. The 30-year mortgage rate rose 3 basis points on the week to 4.16 percent. The MBA’s Applications Survey posted drops in both refinance and purchase applications, registering the impact of recent mortgage rate increases. If rates continue their upward trend, expect mortgage activity to be significantly subdued in 2017.”

Electric out from area storm | Bedford Real Estate

Dear NYSEG Customer,

As a result of several rounds of lightning, severe wind and heavy rain beginning last evening, we’re currently reporting approximately 8,000 customers without power in our Brewster Division (parts of Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties). The outage count is down from a peak of more than 15,000 early this morning.

Easy ways to stay informed:

  • Report outages, view estimated restoration time and more by going to mobile-friendly Outage Central, or call our electricity emergency line at 1.800.572.1131.

  • Sign up to receive NYSEG Outage Alerts by text message, email, or voice message.

Our local crews and support personnel have been working since the outset and we are continuing to bring in additional resources – including line and tree crews – from across the state.

As we continue to respond to downed wires incidents to ensure public safety, we expect to have 90% of the original storm-related outages restored by 1 p.m. tomorrow.
For the latest outage counts; outage locations by county, municipality and streets/roads; and estimated restoration times (as they are available), visit Outage Central.

 

If your power is interrupted go toNYSEG’s Outage Central. Report outages and view estimated restoration times and outage maps at Outage Central from your computer or smart phone.
How we restore power: Our first priority is your safety. In the case of a large interruption, we first repair the main facilities (transmission lines, substations) that bring electricity to your neighborhood. Learn more by clicking here.
If someone in your household uses electrically powered life-sustaining equipment enroll in our program at 1.800.572.1111 to be updated on power restoration efforts if the duration of an outage extends beyond 24 hours.
To report a life-threateningelectricity emergency, call us at1.800.572.1131 or call 911. To report a natural gas emergency or if you smell a natural gas odor, call us at1.800.572.1121 or call 911.
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Is the Lack of Credit Crippling Local Housing Recoveries? | Bedford Corners Real Estate

A new report from Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast suggests that the availability of credit in local markers influences local housing recoveries and accounts for dramatic differences in home prices.

HVF looked at regular average sold prices versus total mortgage trends in San Francisco and Detroit and found that in San Francisco, buyers have averaged 20+% down over the last 14 years to create loan to value ratios between 67 and 82 percent.  In Detroit buyers have averaged LTVs between 86 and 101 percent.  Collateral Analytics, Pro Teck’s partner in Home Value Forecast, found that San Francisco home prices are at an all-time high while Detroit is still trying to return to pre-crash levels, suggesting a direct relationship between LTVs, one of the critical factors determining mortgage approvals, and higher prices.  Conversely, higher LTVs in Detroit may make it more difficult buyers to get financing.

2015-09-24_12-10-59

2015-09-24_12-11-49

 

The median LTV levels for closed mortgages in August was 80 for conventional purchase loans and 96 for FHA purchase loans, according to Ellie Mae.

The HVF authors also examined the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale CBSA and found that LTV levels vary from neighborhood to neighborhood within the metro area. The HVF update reported that in Scottsdale, average home prices have been rebounding steadily since 2011 and now are 20 percent below all-time highs after dropping 37.5 percent. Apache Junction, AZ, another city within the CBSA, is still 36 percent below its all-time high. At the height of the housing crisis, homes in Apache Junction lost more than half their value. The community also had more homeowners with high LTV loans foreclosed, leading to a steeper drop in home prices and a slower recovery.

 

read more…

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/is-the-lack-of-credit-crippling-local-housing-recoveries/