Tag Archives: Bedford Corners NY Homes

Bedford Corners NY Homes

Lumber prices drop 10.3% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Softwood lumber prices fell 10.3% in October—the largest drop since May 2011—according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The producer price index for softwood lumber has fallen 21.2% since setting the cycle and all-time high in June (see below). Even after the decrease, however, the index currently sits just 4.7% lower than the prior-cycle high set in 2004.

The final demand price index for OSB has followed a path similar to that of softwood lumber over the last three months.

Since climbing 38.1% in the first seven months of 2018, OSB prices have fallen 16.6%. The price index for OSB is now 15.2% and 15.7% higher than it was to start 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Residential construction goods input prices increased 0.4% in October and have now risen 7.5% over the last twelve months. The index decreased only twice during that period, by 0.1% and 0.5% in December 2017 and August 2018, respectively. Year-to-date residential construction goods input price increases in 2018 (+5.6) continue to outpace the increase during the same period in 2017 (+2.9%).

Gypsum prices fell 1.6% in October, continuing what has been a relatively volatile year. The price index for gypsum products is 6.3% higher than it was to start 2018, but the year-to-date price increase masks large fluctuations within the year. Consecutive-month increases of 5.4% and 6.1% have been partially offset by two-month decreases of 3.3% and 1.8%.

The last several large increases in the gypsum price index has been foreseeable, as large wallboard producers sent out price increase announcements in the March-May and October-December periods. These announcements informed customers that wallboard prices would increase effective as of January or June/July, depending on the announcement date. Examples of such announcements may be found here and here.

Ready-mix concrete prices declined 0.5% in October. After a large price increase (relative to historical data) in early 2018, prices of ready-mix concrete dropped and have remained essentially unchanged since July.

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Softwood Lumber Price Decline Largest in Seven Years

Home builder confidence rises | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in October on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder confidence levels have held in the high 60s since June.

Builders continue to view solid housing demand, fueled by a growing economy and a nearly 50-year low for unemployment. Lumber price declines for three straight months from elevated levels earlier this summer have also helped to reduce some cost pressures, but builders will need to manage supply-side costs to keep home prices affordable.

Favorable economic conditions and demographic tailwinds should continue to support demand, but housing affordability has become a challenge due to ongoing price and interest rate increases. Unless housing affordability stabilizes, the market risks losing additional momentum as we head into 2019.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 74 and the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased a single point to 75. Meanwhile, the metric charting buyer traffic registered a four-point uptick to 53.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose three points to 57 and the South edged up one point to 71. The West held steady at 74 and the Midwest fell two points to 57.

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NYC prices keep falling | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Bloomberg News

Big Apple home buyers are wary of tax reform, and they’re saying so with their checkbooks. The median Manhattan home sold for around $1.1 million during the third quarter, according to a report released Tuesday, as prices took a 4.5% annual dip partially in response to changing policies in Washington.

Nearly 3,000 homes traded hands between July and the end of September, which is roughly 11% fewer than the same period last year, according to the report from Douglas Elliman Real Estate. And as prices and sales volume continue to decline, more homes hit the market. That pushed inventory to nearly 7,000 units, or about 13% more than 2017.

The market’s strength is likely being sapped by uncertainty regarding the new federal tax law, which hit high-tax states like New York hardest by limiting the amount of property taxes that can be deducted on federal tax returns. The luxury and new development sectors were hit hardest as median prices fell roughly 9% with units sitting on the market for roughly twice as long as more modest offerings. Rising interest rates are also making it more expensive to purchase, especially for lower-priced units as prospective buyers are more likely to take out a mortgage. More generally, wage growth has not kept up with rising housing prices, especially in New York City, creating a disconnect between rosy top-line economic figures and the real estate market, which is still correcting itself after a white-hot run that peaked in 2014.

“You throw that all in a cauldron,” said Jonathan Miller, head of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which prepared the report for Douglas Elliman, “and it is putting a drag on the pace of the market.”

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https://www.crainsnewyork.com

crains.com

California panel approves historic plan to require solar panels on new homes | Bedford Corners Real Estate

New homes and low-rise apartment buildings across California would include solar panels under first-in-the-nation rules approved Wednesday by the California Energy Commission.

The rules now go to the state Building Standards Commission, where they were expected to easily win approval.

“This is groundbreaking,” said Pierre Delforge, senior scientist for the Natural Resources Defense Council. He said the rules “will save energy, lower customer bills, keep homes comfortable in increasing heat waves and reduce pollution from California’s homes and buildings.”

The requirements, which would go into effect in 2020, could add more than $10,000 to the construction costs of new homes, the commission says. Some builders say the costs could be more than twice that.

But the commission and most builders agree that the costs should be more than made up in energy savings over the life of the solar energy system. And the plan has drawn generally positive reviews from the construction industry.

“Adoption of these standards represents a quantum leap in statewide buildings standards,” said Robert Raymer, technical director for the California Building Industry Association. “No other state in the nation will have anything close to this, and you can bet 49 other states will be watching to see what happens here in California.”

Some conservatives were not so enthusiastic, noting that the state already has some of the nation’s most expensive housing markets. A National Association of Realtors survey for the fourth quarter of 2017 listed four California markets among the nation’s five most expensive.

San Jose topped the list with a median price in excess of $1.2 million.

“The state’s housing crisis is real,” State Assemblyman Brian Dahle said. “California’s affordability problem is making it more and more difficult for people to afford to live here.”

The commission projects that more than 100,000 single-family homes and almost 50,000 multi-family buildings will be built across the state in 2020. Raymer acknowledged that the ambitious plan will probably roll in with some “hiccups.” Less than 20% of homes built in the state now include the panels.

The rules also address insulation and appliance efficiency. And they include efforts to increase battery storage and increase use of electricity over natural gas. Use of batteries to store solar energy will be crucial to cost savings, Raymer said.

“Battery storage technology will allow the homeowner to capture the cheaper electricity … the middle of the day,” Raymer said. “And keep that power on-site for use in the early evening hours when electrical rates go way up.”

The rules apply to building permits issued after Jan. 1, 2020. There are some exceptions to the solar panel rule, such as homes that would be shaded by trees or buildings or when roofs are too small for the panels.

Abigail Ross, CEO of the national Solar Energy Industries Association, said solar prices in the state have fallen by more than 50% in the last five years.

“Other states may not be ready for this step yet,” she said. “But this is a precedent-setting policy, one that will bring enormous benefits and cost savings to consumers.”

For more than a decade, the commission has been operating under goals that would provide “net-zero” energy for new residents by 2020 and for new commercial buildings a decade later.

 

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/05/09/california-solar-panels-state-may-require-them-new-homes/594364002/

San Francisco’s housing market may have peaked | Bedford Corners Real Estate

The signs and numbers are already lining up.

According to Federal Housing Finance Agency data on our glorious Housing Bubble 2, house prices are doing what they’ve been doing for years: they’re surging. In the first quarter, they rose 6.0% year-over-year.

“The steep, multi-year rise in U.S. home prices continued in the first quarter,” explained FHFA Deputy Chief Economist Andrew Leventis on Wednesday. So house price are going up everywhere. Well, not everywhere.

In the once hottest metropolitan statistical area where house prices have surged in the double digits for years – San Francisco, Redwood City, and the city of South San Francisco which make up the tip of the Peninsula – was the sole exception: there, house prices fell 2.5% in Q1 year-over-year.

It was the first decline since Q2 2011, when the last housing bust ended. This chart shows the year-over-year percentage change per quarter of the FHFA’s House Price Index (HPI). Note how many times prices increased between 10% and 20%-plus:US San Francisco house price changes FHFA 2017 Q1Wolf Street

The HPI is based on data from mortgages that lenders have sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or that were guaranteed by them. These mortgages are capped – for the San Francisco area, at $636,150. In San Francisco itself, the median house price is about $1.35 million and the median condo price about $1.1 million, according to Paragon Real Estate  in San Francisco. With a 20% down-payment, the home could be priced at $800,000 to qualify. I know buyers who made a much bigger down payment – given how little their money earns at the bank – to get a conforming mortgage because they wanted to benefit from the lower rates.

This is what the index looks like, including the ominous kink at the top, the first such sharp kink since the end of Housing Bubble 1:

US San Francisco house prices FHFA 2017 Q1Wolf Street

In terms of price movements, how close is the HPI to the median price?

  • During Housing Bubble 1, the HPI double-peaked in Q3 2006 and Q2 2007. By comparison, the median price in San Francisco (as opposed to the larger area the HPI covers) peaked in November 2007.
  • The HPI plunged 23% and bottomed out in Q2 2011. The median price in San Francisco plunged 27% and bottomed out in Q1 2012.
  • The HPI then soared 83% to peak in Q4 2016. The median price in San Francisco soared over 100% – and stalled in early 2016…

“Stalled” may be too optimistic a term. Paragon Real Estate notes that the three-month moving average of the February-April median price of condos was about flat year-over-year with 2016 and 2015; so two years of essentially no movement. And house prices fell from the same period in 2016.

So the turning points of the HPI were leading indicators of turning points in the median price in San Francisco, though the HPI’s movements were less steep, plunging a little less during the bust, and soaring a little less during the boom. Now San Francisco’s housing market is into the next phase.

CoreLogic’s data corroborates the lumpy nature of the San Francisco housing market; the median price in April for all types of homes dropped 4% year-over-year to $1.3 million, with sales volume dropping 12%.

And here may be part of the reason for the lumpiness in the housing market: The construction boom has been throwing thousands of new housing units – all condos and apartments – on the market every year in recent years, and will continue to do so, just as employment growth, according to California’s Employment Development Department, has slowed down sharply:

US San Francisco employment 2017 04Wolf Street

Note that the “labor force” is based on the number of residents in San Francisco; “employment” is based on the number of jobs in San Francisco, including those jobs filled by people who commute into the city.

The labor force in San Francisco fell to 559,100 in April, the lowest since June 2016 and up only 4,500 year-over-year. This is the crucial indicator for housing demand. Employment fell to 543,900 – essentially flat in 2017 and up 7000 year-over-year. So far in 2017, year-over-year employment increases ranged from 5,000 to 8,700 jobs per month. This might sound like a lot, but…

  • The year-over-year increases in January-April 2016 ranged from 12,900 to 17,000 a month.
  • The year-over-year increases in January-April 2015 ranged from 21,100 to 22,800 a month.

This chart shows the monthly employment gains and losses on a year-over-year basis going back to 2009. Note the sharp decline in gains that started in early 2015:

US San Francisco employment growth_2017 04Wolf Street

Even as employment gains are tapering off, thousands of condos and apartments have come on the market and continue to come on the market every year as a result of a historic construction boom, with new towers sprouting like mushrooms in certain parts of the City. Almost all of them are high-end. So in addition to the market facing a dose of supply-and-demand reality, it also faces a problem of affordability, with not enough people making enough money even in the tech sector to buy or rent at those dizzying levels.

 

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http://www.businessinsider.com/san-franciscos-housing-market-may-have-peaked-2017-5

 

Mortgage rates average 4.16% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the seventh consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending December 15, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.97 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.37 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.22 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.19 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.17 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.03 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“As was almost-universally expected, the FOMC closed the year with its one-and-only rate hike of 2016. The consensus of the committee points to more rate hikes in 2017. However, the experience of this year combined with the policy uncertainty that accompanies a new Administration suggests a wait-and-see outlook.

“This week’s mortgage rate survey was completed prior to the FOMC announcement. The 30-year mortgage rate rose 3 basis points on the week to 4.16 percent. The MBA’s Applications Survey posted drops in both refinance and purchase applications, registering the impact of recent mortgage rate increases. If rates continue their upward trend, expect mortgage activity to be significantly subdued in 2017.”

Electric out from area storm | Bedford Real Estate

Dear NYSEG Customer,

As a result of several rounds of lightning, severe wind and heavy rain beginning last evening, we’re currently reporting approximately 8,000 customers without power in our Brewster Division (parts of Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties). The outage count is down from a peak of more than 15,000 early this morning.

Easy ways to stay informed:

  • Report outages, view estimated restoration time and more by going to mobile-friendly Outage Central, or call our electricity emergency line at 1.800.572.1131.

  • Sign up to receive NYSEG Outage Alerts by text message, email, or voice message.

Our local crews and support personnel have been working since the outset and we are continuing to bring in additional resources – including line and tree crews – from across the state.

As we continue to respond to downed wires incidents to ensure public safety, we expect to have 90% of the original storm-related outages restored by 1 p.m. tomorrow.
For the latest outage counts; outage locations by county, municipality and streets/roads; and estimated restoration times (as they are available), visit Outage Central.

 

If your power is interrupted go toNYSEG’s Outage Central. Report outages and view estimated restoration times and outage maps at Outage Central from your computer or smart phone.
How we restore power: Our first priority is your safety. In the case of a large interruption, we first repair the main facilities (transmission lines, substations) that bring electricity to your neighborhood. Learn more by clicking here.
If someone in your household uses electrically powered life-sustaining equipment enroll in our program at 1.800.572.1111 to be updated on power restoration efforts if the duration of an outage extends beyond 24 hours.
To report a life-threateningelectricity emergency, call us at1.800.572.1131 or call 911. To report a natural gas emergency or if you smell a natural gas odor, call us at1.800.572.1121 or call 911.
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Is the Lack of Credit Crippling Local Housing Recoveries? | Bedford Corners Real Estate

A new report from Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast suggests that the availability of credit in local markers influences local housing recoveries and accounts for dramatic differences in home prices.

HVF looked at regular average sold prices versus total mortgage trends in San Francisco and Detroit and found that in San Francisco, buyers have averaged 20+% down over the last 14 years to create loan to value ratios between 67 and 82 percent.  In Detroit buyers have averaged LTVs between 86 and 101 percent.  Collateral Analytics, Pro Teck’s partner in Home Value Forecast, found that San Francisco home prices are at an all-time high while Detroit is still trying to return to pre-crash levels, suggesting a direct relationship between LTVs, one of the critical factors determining mortgage approvals, and higher prices.  Conversely, higher LTVs in Detroit may make it more difficult buyers to get financing.

2015-09-24_12-10-59

2015-09-24_12-11-49

 

The median LTV levels for closed mortgages in August was 80 for conventional purchase loans and 96 for FHA purchase loans, according to Ellie Mae.

The HVF authors also examined the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale CBSA and found that LTV levels vary from neighborhood to neighborhood within the metro area. The HVF update reported that in Scottsdale, average home prices have been rebounding steadily since 2011 and now are 20 percent below all-time highs after dropping 37.5 percent. Apache Junction, AZ, another city within the CBSA, is still 36 percent below its all-time high. At the height of the housing crisis, homes in Apache Junction lost more than half their value. The community also had more homeowners with high LTV loans foreclosed, leading to a steeper drop in home prices and a slower recovery.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/is-the-lack-of-credit-crippling-local-housing-recoveries/

Existing Home Sales fall 4.8% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Existing Home Sales in the United States fell 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5310 Thousand in August from a downwardly revised 5580 Thousand in July of 2015. It is the lowest figure since April, below market expectations. The median sale price went up 4.7% yoy and the months’ worth of supply rose 0.3 to 5.2. Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3842.52 Thousand from 1968 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970. Existing Home Sales in the United States is reported by the National Association of Realtors.

United States Existing Home Sales

 

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
5310.00 5480.00 7250.00 1370.00 1968 – 2015 Thousand Monthly
SA
Existing Home Sales occurs when the mortgage is closed. Mortgage closing usually takes place 30-60 days after the sales contract is closed. . This page provides the latest reported value for – United States Existing Home Sales – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Content for – United States Existing Home Sales – was last refreshed on Monday, September 21, 2015.

 

Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2015-07-22 03:00 PM Jun 5.49M 5.32M(R) 5.4M 5.2M
2015-08-20 03:00 PM Jul 5.59M 5.48M 5.44M 5.4M
2015-09-21 03:00 PM Aug 5.31M 5.58M 5.53M 5.4M
2015-10-22 03:00 PM Sep 5.6M
2015-11-23 03:00 PM Oct 5.6M
2015-12-22 03:00 PM Nov 5.5M

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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales

 

Credit News | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Some Great Ways to Take Advantage of an “Average to Good” or “Excellent” Credit Score
For those who achieve an “average to good” FICO score (660 and above) or an “excellent” score (740 and above), there are many ways to take advantage of this achievement by opening new doors for opportunity and savings. As a real estate/financing professional, you can share these tips with your client base to bring value added and allow your clients to do further business with you.
Here are some things those with great credit can take advantage of (but must be aware of the potential downsides):
● Transferring Credit Card Balances
Many credit cards can charge an exorbitant interest rate, and these rates coupled with debt can lead to large payments and wasted money. In fact, the average credit card debt in the US is currently over $6,500. Fortunately, those with great credit are eligible for a method to pay debt off rather quickly and easily. People with great credit should be eligible for a 0 percent interest rate on balance transfers, which essentially allows one to transfer credit card debt from a high interest card to a no interest account for a certain time period.
It’s important to note a few things when considering this option:
– Some of these cards will slap on a 3% fee for transferring balances, and you should make sure to find a card that doesn’t charge this fee.
– Opening new credit reduces your average age of credit which will drop your credit scores.  Do not open new cards if you plan on applying for a mortgage or loan  within 2 years since scores may drop substantially after opening new credit.  Make sure the cards you open are done strategically and not often.
●​ Credit Card Upgrades
High FICO scores will also make consumers eligible for the best credit card offerings. Many of the cards offered to those above a 660 score have better benefits, rewards, and perks unavailable to others. In addition, these cards often offer sign-on bonuses.  Clearly if your scores are above a 740 the perks are even better.   However, consumers have to make sure that they follow our tips when opening a new card in order to maintain their score (see the tips here) and should contact us with any questions.
●​ Home Refinance
Those with great credit can also take advantage of historically low home interest rates. With a higher FICO score, many can lock in a much better rate for their mortgage. Even a small improvement in interest rates can lead to savings in the hundreds of thousands over the life of a mortgage.
●​ Negotiating better interest rates or transfer offers with current credit cards
If you have existing cards and have excellent credit scores you can ask the creditor for lower interest rates or transfer offers on your existing cards.  This is great if you don’t want to reduce your scores by opening new credit.
● ​Requesting limit increases on current cards
The higher your credit limits the more leeway you have to charge without reducing your credit scores.  Since balance-to-limit ratios on revolving credit (credit cards) must be under 10% for the best score increases, it is great to have high limits.  Calling your creditor and asking for a limit increase can help your scores.  The creditor will pull your credit reports and scores for approval so the scores can drop a little from the inquiry.  If you have had many third party inquiries during the year it could drop scores significantly and it might be best to wait a year from the latest third party review.
Do you have any credit questions?
Tracy Becker, President
155 White Plains Road
Suite 200
Tarrytown, NY 10591
or  (toll free) 866-388-9400
F :(914) 524-5014 ​​