Tag Archives: Armonk NY Real Estate

Armonk NY Real Estate

Mortgage Lenders Tighten Screws on Credit | Armonk Real Estate

Mortgage rates are at record lows, but borrowers hoping to take advantage are running into the toughest loan-approval standards in years.

Over the past month, lenders have put in place higher credit-score and down payment requirements, and in some cases stopped issuing certain types of home loans altogether, in effect shutting down a large swath of the mortgage market. If you’re trying to find an area mortgage lender, we are the corporate to show to. we’ve been serving Kansas City since 1996 with honesty, integrity, and expertise. Making us one among the simplest companies to settle on from. We are locally owned and operated and offer rock bottom rate. Through our unique home equity credit programs, we offer a stress-free home buying experience. We are committed to creating the method simple and enjoyable. We’ve streamlined the closing process to make sure a smooth and stress-free process. As an experienced lender, we’ll guide you to the simplest land loans; Conventional Loans (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), FHA (Federal Housing Administration), VA Loans, USDA, HELOC or Jumbo) and therefore the best lending program to fit your needs. With numerous financial products, we are certain that we’ll have the right product with the simplest rate of interest for you. Click here to read more about mortgage loans.

You’ve made the decision that you need some extra assistance in meeting your monthly financial obligations. One of the best options for those over sixty-two years of age who own their own home is a reverse mortgage. Instead of you paying the bank each month, the bank will actually pay you. The loan can be taken out as a lump sum, a fixed monthly payment or as a line of credit. You do not have to pay back the loan until you sell your home or move out permanently. There are many reverse mortgage lenders such as banks and credit unions that you can contact to obtain details about these loans. Rates may vary so you will want to check around with various banks before deciding. There are several types of reverse mortgage loans and they include the following:

Home Equity Conversion Mortgage – HECMs are the oldest types of reverse mortgage loans and the most popular. They are insured by the federal government through the Federal Housing Administration, which is part of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The amount of money you can take out as a reverse mortgage loan depends upon your age, the appraised value of your home, current interest rates and the location of your home. The older you are and the higher the equity (what it would sell for less what you still owe), the higher the loan amount can be. For 2006, the loan limit for a home in a rural area is $200,160 while the limit for high cost areas is $362,790.

Another reverse home mortgage product that you can obtain from a lender is the Fannie Mae Home Keeper. Fannie Mae is the largest investor of home mortgages in the country and a major investor in reverse mortgages. Fannie Mae developed its own reverse mortgage product as an alternative to the HECM to address the needs of customers who had a higher property value on their home. Home Keeper loans can be larger than HECMs because their mortgage limit is higher. Another Fannie Mae reverse mortgage product is the Home Keeper for Home Purchase program. This is for seniors who wish to use the reverse mortgage loan to buy a new home. For example, let’s say someone sold his home for a $60,000 profit and wants to buy a new house for $100,000. He could get a reverse mortgage using money from a Home Keeper loan so he would not have to use his savings to purchase the more expensive home.

The triggers, industry executives say, include lenders becoming risk-averse during the coronavirus crisis, knock-on effects of Congress allowing millions of borrowers to delay their monthly payments, and policies implemented amid the pandemic by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The impact has been dramatic, with one model showing mortgage credit availability has plunged by more than 25% since the U.S. outbreak of the virus.

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The tightened lending could add another headwind for the nation’s besieged economy by dampening home sales just as some states lift stay-at-home orders and the spring months herald the traditional buying season. Already, mortgage refinances are coming in at a much slower pace than analysts would expect, considering the rock-bottom borrowing rates.

In March, riskier borrowers “could get a mortgage but just pay a higher price than other people,” said Michael Neal, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute Housing Finance Policy Center. “Now, some people are just not going to get mortgages.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. tightened its standards last month, requiring borrowers to have minimum credit scores of 700 and to make down payments of 20% of the home price on most mortgages, including refinances if the bank didn’t already manage the loan.

Wells Fargo & Co. increased its minimum credit score to 680 for government loans that it buys from smaller lenders before aggregating them into mortgage bonds.

The banks’ revised standards are far above the typical minimum score of 580 and down payment of 3.5% that borrowers need to qualify for home-buying programs supported by the federal government.

Wells Fargo is no longer letting borrowers refinance their mortgages while cashing out home equity, and both Wells and JPMorgan have suspended new home-equity lines of credit. Truist Financial Corp. has suspended some cash-out refinances for jumbo loans with high balances because of economic conditions, a spokesman said.

Refinance Hesitancy

There are signs that banks are even trying to limit regular refinances. Wells Fargo on Thursday quoted a refinance rate of 4% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, more than half a percentage point higher than it quoted for the same loan if used to buy a home.

A Wells Fargo spokesman said the company believes its rates are within the range of what they see from other lenders. He said the company suspended home-equity lines of credit in light of uncertainty surrounding the economic recovery.

A JPMorgan spokeswoman said the bank’s changes are temporary and due to the unclear economic outlook.

Refinances surged in early March as homeowners utilized low rates to reduce their monthly payments. But refinance rate locks, a forward-looking measure of refinance activity, had plunged 80% from their peak by mid-April, according to Black Knight Inc., a mortgage information service. The company said that even the steep increase in unemployment in March and April couldn’t explain why refinance activity fell so dramatically.

Fannie-Freddie Policies

Industry executives say the tighter underwriting is partly in response to policies put in place by Fannie and Freddie that make it expensive or risky to make certain kinds of mortgages. For instance, Fannie and Freddie said last month they would buy mortgages where the borrower had already entered forbearance. But the mortgage-finance companies excluded cash-out refinances. Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Michael Fratantoni said that prompted many lenders to limit issuance of those products.

Fannie, Freddie and government agencies such as the Federal Housing Administration set standards for the mortgages they’re willing to back. For example, the FHA will insure loans where the borrower has a credit score of as low as 580 with a 3.5% down payment.

However, mortgage lenders sometimes set their own, stricter standards, even if they intend to sell the loans to Fannie or Freddie or have them insured by the FHA. Fannie and Freddie, which have been under the U.S. government’s control since the 2008 financial crisis, buy mortgages from lenders and package them into trillions of dollars of bonds with guarantees that protect investors against the risk of borrowers defaulting.

Mortgage credit availability has fallen 26% since the end of February, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a Thursday statement, citing an index of lending standards. Most of the pain has been for loans not supported by the government. Still, mortgages backstopped by Fannie, Freddie and federal agencies in April did have the toughest credit terms that such loans have had in more than five years.

Servicers’ Peril

Many lenders appear to have put restrictions in place in response to the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill that lawmakers passed in March. Under the new law, lenders must let borrowers with government-guaranteed mortgages delay as much as a year’s worth of payments if they were impacted by coronavirus.

Even though they eventually get reimbursed, mortgage servicers are required to advance the missed payments to bond investors. That makes lenders less eager to offer loans to borrowers who they think will need forbearance, such as consumers with low credit scores and those who can only afford minimal down payments.

The MBA’s Fratantoni said the credit crunch has been exacerbated by the reticence of federal regulators to establish a liquidity facility that would help servicers advance payments to bondholders. While Fratantoni said large servicers may not go under, they’re still protecting themselves by tightening mortgage requirements.

“I can’t imagine any lender wanting to be aggressive at all in this environment,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “It’s how far deep into the bunker are you.”

Read Newsmax: Mortgage Lenders Tighten Screws on U.S. Credit in Echo of 2008 | Newsmax.com

NYC rental market tumbles down | Armonk Real Estate

New York apartment leases plunged last month as coronavirus stay-at-home orders kept the city’s renters from moving.

In Manhattan, new agreements fell 38% in March from a year earlier, the second-biggest decline in 11 years of record-keeping by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. In Brooklyn and Queens, signings were down 46% and 34%, respectively, the firms said in a report Thursday.

Restrictions on gatherings have made in-person showings illegal, and landlords, worried about units going vacant during a recession, did what they could to retain current tenants.

“Well, what are you going to do?” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. “Tenants can’t really look at new apartments other than virtually. And then they’d have to move, and moving has become one of the biggest problems because many buildings are restricting or prohibiting moving trucks.”

New leases that were signed set price records — a vestige of the overheated demand that existed before the pandemic as would-be buyers sat out a sluggish sales market.

Rents for the smallest apartments reached new highs in both Manhattan and Brooklyn. The monthly median for studios in Manhattan jumped 9.3% to $2,843, while one-bedroom costs climbed 4.4% to $3,650.

Brooklyn studios and one-bedrooms rented for a median of $2,700 and $2,995, respectively.

Those gains aren’t likely to continue. A prolonged economic shutdown costing thousands of jobs will leave many tenants unable to pay rent and fewer people seeking to move to new apartments in the city.

“There’s going to be downward pressure on rents going forward,” Miller said.

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blommberg.com/news/articles

Pending home sales jump 5.7% yoy | Armonk Real Estate

Pending home sales rebounded in January, ticking up following a decline in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the West region reported a minor drop in month-over-month contract activity, while the other three major regions each saw pending home sales grow. Year-over-year pending home sales activity was up in all four regions and thus up nationally compared to one year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, grew 5.2% to 108.8 in January. Year-over-year contract signings increased 5.7%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“This month’s solid activity – the second-highest monthly figure in over two years – is due to the good economic backdrop and exceptionally low mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Infographic: January 2020 Pending-Home Sales

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“We are still lacking in inventory,” he said, noting December’s and January’s combined supply was at the lowest level since 1999. “Inventory availability will be the key to consistent future gains.”

Pointing to data from active listings at realtor.com®, Yun says the year-over-year increases show a strong desire for homeownership. Markets drawing some of the most significant buyer attention include Fort Wayne, Ind.; San Francisco, Calif.; Sacramento, Calif.; Lafayette, Ind.; and San Jose, Calif.

“With housing starts hovering at 1.6 million in December and January, along with the favorable mortgage rates, among other factors, 2020 has so far presented a very positive sales climate,” Yun said. “Moreover, the latest stock market correction could provide exceptional, even lower mortgage rates for a few weeks, and that would help bring about a noticeable upturn in the coming months.”

January Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI rose 1.3% to 92.9 in January, 1.2% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index increased 7.3% to 105.3 last month, 6.5% higher than in January 2019.

Pending home sales in the South grew 8.7% to an index of 129.4 in January, a 7.1% increase from January 2019. The index in the West declined 1.1% in January 2020 to 92.6, still a jump of 5.5% from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20% of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for February will be reported March 20. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be March 30; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

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https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-ascend-5-2-in-january

Existing home sales surge | Armonk Real Estate

After a slight decline last month, existing home sales, released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), surged to near two-year high in December.

Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.54 million in December, the highest level since February 2018. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 10.8% higher than a year ago.

The first-time buyer share slightly decreased to 31% in December from 32% last month and a year ago. The December inventory decreased to 1.40 million units from 1.64 million units in November and 1.53 million units a year ago. At the current sales rate, the December unsold inventory represents a 3.0-month supply, down from a 3.7-month supply last month and a year ago. Unsold inventory has dropped for seven consecutive months.

Homes stayed on the market for an average of 41 days in December, up from 38 days last month but down from 46 days a year ago. In December, 43% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.

The December all-cash sales shared 20% of transactions, unchanged from last month and down slightly from 22% a year ago.

The December median sales price of all existing homes was $274,500, up 7.8% from a year ago, representing the 94th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median existing condominium/co-op price of $255,400 in December was up 6.0% from a year ago.

Regionally, all regions saw an increase in existing home sales in December except for the Midwest, compared to previous month. Sales in the Midwest declined 1.5% from last month. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in all four major regions, ranging from 8.8% in the Northeast to 12.4% in the South.

Though the housing market has been lifted this year by lower mortgage rates and continuing job expansion, the growth has also been curbed by low housing inventory and elevated home prices. As economic conditions are expected to remain favorable for homebuyers, more inventory is needed for further home building gains in 2020.

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FHFA Announces Maximum Conforming Loan Limits for 2020 | Armonk Real Estate

Washington, D.C. – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages to be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2020.  In most of the U.S., the 2020 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will be $510,400, an increase from $484,350 in 2019. 

Baseline limit

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) requires that the baseline conforming loan limit be adjusted each year for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reflect the change in the average U.S. home price.  Earlier today, FHFA published its third quarter 2019 FHFA House Price Index (HPI) report, which includes estimates for the increase in the average U.S. home value over the last four quarters.  According to FHFA’s seasonally adjusted, expanded-data HPI, house prices increased 5.38 percent, on average, between the third quarters of 2018 and 2019.  Therefore, the baseline maximum conforming loan limit in 2020 will increase by the same percentage. 

High-cost area limits

For areas in which 115 percent of the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit, the maximum loan limit will be higher than the baseline loan limit.  HERA establishes the maximum loan limit in those areas as a multiple of the area median home value, while setting a “ceiling” on that limit of 150 percent of the baseline loan limit.  Median home values generally increased in high-cost areas in 2019, driving up the maximum loan limits in many areas.  The new ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties in most high-cost areas will be $765,600 — or 150 percent of $510,400. 

Special statutory provisions establish different loan limit calculations for Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.  In these areas, the baseline loan limit will be $765,600 for one-unit properties.

As a result of generally rising home values, the increase in the baseline loan limit, and the increase in the ceiling loan limit, the maximum conforming loan limit will be higher in 2020 in all but 43 counties or county equivalents in the U.S.   

Questions about the 2020 conforming loan limits can be addressed to LoanLimitQuestions@fhfa.gov and more information is available at https://www.fhfa.gov/CLLs.

  • For a list of the 2020 maximum loan limits for all counties and county-equivalent areas in the U.S. click here
  • For a map showing the 2020 maximum loan limits across the U.S. click here.  
  • For a detailed description of the methodology used to determine the maximum loan limits in accordance with HERA, click here.

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https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Announces-Maximum-Conforming-Loan-Limits-for-2020.aspx

Mortgage rates average 3.66% | Armonk Real Estate

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.66 percent.

“The housing market continues to steadily gain momentum with rising homebuyer demand and increased construction due to the strong job market, ebullient market sentiment and low mortgage rates,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Residential real estate accounts for one-sixth of the economy, and the improving real estate market will support economic growth heading into next year.”

News Facts

30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.66 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending November 21, 2019, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.81 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.24 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.39 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.44 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.09 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

New York City housing shortage could create economic headwind | Armonk Real Estate

The lack of affordable housing in New York City and its suburbs could threaten job creation and future economic job growth, according to a new report from the city’s Planning Department.

“The region’s housing supply has not been keeping up with job growth in recent years,” the report said. “This pattern would be expected to heighten affordability challenges and create headwinds to further business growth.”

Released Wednesday, the 32-page report found that New York averaged just 45,800 permits for new apartments and homes per year between 2009 and 2018. That’s down about 30 percent from the period between 2001 and 2008, when the city and its tri-state suburbs averaged 63,600 units per year.

The Central Park Tower, center, is under construction, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2019 in New York. At 1550 feet (472 meters) the tower is the world’s tallest residential apartment building, according to the developer, Extell Development Co. (AP Photo/Mark L

Prior to the financial crisis, the city and its suburbs, including Long Island, Westchester, northern New Jersey and Connecticut, created an average of 2.2 new houses or apartments per new job. But that number has slipped in the decade since the recession as job growth skyrocketed, falling to just 0.5 units added per job.

Over the last 10 years, New York City averaged 20,000 new homes or apartments annually, granting far more housing permits than any of its suburbs.

City Hall said in a statement to the New York Post, which first reported the news, that in 2018, New York issued 22,000 new housing units.

“It’s key that we continue to produce housing at a high pace, and we need our neighbors to do the same if we are going to address regional housing affordability and support economic growth,” City Planning spokeswoman Rachaele Raynoff told the Post.

According to an “Affordability Index” published by Comptroller Scott Stringer, the impacts of expensive housing costs varied across households. Rent swallowed up 37 percent of the average single adult’s earnings, but that figure, at 47 percent, was even higher for single parents. It accounted for 26 percent of married couples’ budgets.

“New York City’s affordability crisis impacts every New Yorker and every community — and the numbers laid out in our affordability index shine a light on this worsening crisis,” Stringer said.

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https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/new-york-city-housing-shortage-jeopardizes-economic-boom

Mortgage rates average 3.65% | Armonk NY Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.65 percent, a slight increase from last week.

“While mortgage rates generally held steady this week, overall mortgage demand remained very strong, rising over fifty percent from a year ago thanks to increases in both refinance and purchase mortgage applications,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As economic growth decelerates, it is clear that low mortgage rates will continue to support the mortgage market and we expect that to persist for the remainder of the year.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.65 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending September 26, 2019, slightly up from last week when it averaged 3.64 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent. 
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.14 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.15 percent. 
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.38 percent with an average 0.4 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.01 percent.

2019 Builders choice and custom home design awards | Armonk Real Estate

Casey Dunn

Sixteen projects earned accolades from our panel of judges for this year’s Builder’s Choice & Custom Home Design Awards program, representing some of the best residential design work being constructed today.

Overall, the jurors—J. Carson Looney of Memphis, Tenn.–based Looney Ricks Kiss, Michael Hennessey of San Francisco–based Michael Hennessey Architecture, and Jonathan Tate of New Orleans–based Office of Jonathan Tate—praised function in smaller footprints, use of innovative building materials, and remodels that respect the existing architecture. From production homes to interior renovations to meticulously crafted custom abodes, there is no shortage of inspiration below for you to reimagine for your own projects.

EXPLORE: ALL PROJECT OF THE YEAR GRAND AWARD MERIT AWARD

PROJECT OF THE YEARSugar Shack Residence

GRAND AWARDRenovation on Cox’s Row

GRAND AWARDGlen Ellen Aerie

GRAND AWARDOld Orchard

GRAND AWARDOne Museum Place

MERIT AWARDBlack Metal & White Plaster

MERIT AWARDLipton Thayer Brick House

MERIT AWARDBridgehampton House

MERIT AWARDTree House

MERIT AWARDVenice Beach

MERIT AWARDGrant Street House

MERIT AWARDBlue Sail

MERIT AWARDBig Mouth House

MERIT AWARDThe Sanctuary

MERIT AWARDQuimby Pool House

MERIT AWARDScott’s Grove
Affordable Housing

View past years’ Builder’s Choice & Custom Home Design Award winners here.

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https://www.builderonline.com/design/awards/2019-builders-choice-custom-home-design-awards_o?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BP_091019&

Housing is providing another in a line of troubling signs pointing to an economic downturn | Armonk Real Estate

GP: Home for sale New home sales.

A for sale sign stands before property for sale in Monterey Park, California.Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

A Federal Reserve economist says the current housing backdrop is similar to recent economic slumps, with several metrics “consistent with the possibility of a late 2019 or early 2020 recession.”

“Data on single-family home sales through May 2019 confirm that housing markets in all regions of the country are weakening,” the St. Louis Fed’s William R. Emmons said in a report posted on the central bank district’s site. “The severity of the housing downturn appears comparable across regions—in all cases, it’s much less severe than the experience leading to the Great Recession but similar to the periods before the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.”

Specifically, Emmons looked at sales numbers for the 12 months ending May 2019 compared to the average over the past three years. He uses December 2019 as the “plausible month for peak growth” in the current case, and then looks at how far back from the peak was the first month in which sales fell below their three-year average in the previous three recessions. 

WATCH NOWVIDEO02:50Here’s what Fannie Mae is forecasting for the housing market

The process may seem at least somewhat opaque, but Emmons said it has been a reliable indicator from the housing market for when the next recession is due — usually about a year away, according to historical trends.

In the Northeast, for instance, August 2018 was the first month that sales fell below the region’s three-year average. That would be 16 months from the December 2019 assumed peak. In the previous recessions, the first negative month respectively came 23, 10 and 21 months before the peak. That would put the current pattern within the historical range, Emmons wrote.

These charts look at how each region stacks up. The four lines each represent a recession; the deviation of the 12-month sales average toward the three-year average decreases until it goes negative; the charts then show how long it took before a recession hit:

In addition to the sales numbers, Emmons said current mortgage rates, inflation-adjusted house prices and residential investment’s contribution to economic growth are similar to patterns that preceded the most recent three recessions.

Single-family home sales work best as indicator, he said, because the other metrics are national in nature and thus don’t reflect whether the deterioration has spread through all regions.

“Considering signals from other housing indicators and from indicators outside housing with good forecasting track records (such as the Treasury yield curve), the regional housing data noted here merit close attention,” Emmons wrote.Calling for rate cut

The St. Louis Fed, where Emmons works, is led by its president, James Bullard, who has been one of the loudest voices on the Federal Open Market Committee advocating for an interest rate cut. Bullard was the lone member of the monetary policymaking body in June to vote against keeping the benchmark funds rate steady. He is advocating an “insurance” cut to head off anticipated economic weakness.

Markets are anticipating up to three rate cuts this year, though most Fed officials have not committed to policy easing ahead of the July 30-31 FOMC meeting.

There are mounting signs that global weakness and business concerns over tariffs could hamper U.S. growth or cause an outright recession.

The New York Fed uses the spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury yields to determine the probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That part of the yield curve has inverted, which has been a reliable recession indicator. Chances for negative growth by May 2020 are at 29.6%, up from 27.5% in April and the highest level since May 31, 2008, just as the financial crisis was set to explode in September.

Still, there are hopes that the U.S. can withstand a significant downturn.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, in a speech Tuesday, pointed out that the economy has been resilient through growth scares during a recovery that began 10 years ago. Mester said she expects housing to be neutral for growth this year.

Also, Joseph LaVorgna, chief Americas economist at Latixis, said a diffusion index of leading economic indicators is showing positive trends for six out of 10 components, indicating that “the risk of a downturn remains relatively low.”

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/home-sales-point-to-recession-in-late-2019-or-2020-fed-economist-says.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief