Tag Archives: Armonk NY Real Estate

Armonk NY Real Estate

Existing home sales up, prices up | Armonk Real Estate

Existing home sales rebound, but manufacturing and services sector activity cools

Existing-home sales rebounded in May, increasing 2.5% month-over-month (m/m) to an annual rate of 5.34 million units, compared to the Bloomberg expectation of a rise to 5.27 million units and April’s upwardly-revised 5.21 million rate.

Sales of single-family homes were higher m/m, but down from year-ago levels, while purchases of condominiums and co-ops rose compared to last month and were down y/y.

The median existing-home price rose 4.8% from a year ago to $277,700, and marking the 87th straight month of y/y gains.

Unsold inventory came in at a 4.3-months pace at the current sales rate, up from 4.2 months a year ago. Sales rose in all regions, with the Northeast seeing the largest increase.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “The purchasing power to buy a home has been bolstered by falling mortgage rates, and buyers are responding,” adding, that “solid demand along with inadequate inventory of affordable homes have pushed the median home price to a new record high.”

More people moving to the Exurbs | Armonk Real Estate

construction

Welcome to the exurbs: remote areas just beyond the more affluent suburbs that have seen a wave of activity from builders and home shoppers.

According to a recent report by the National Association of Home Builders, the exurbs were the only regions that saw an annual increase in single-family permits in the first quarter of 2019.

Posting a 1.6% year-over-year gain, the exurbs are home to just 9% of the nation’s single-family construction. But while this might not seem like much, its share is growing – a fact that some analysts say is raising red flags.

Why? The last time the exurbs saw activity increase was during the housing boom, when speculators got a bit over-excited about the opportunity to make the big bucks by flipping homes on the cheap. But when the bubble burst, these areas were largely abandoned, and builders were left deep in the red.

renewed surge of activity in exurban areas is a key indicator of a general lack of affordability that is plaguing the housing market.

“A shortage of buildable and affordable lots is forcing builders to increasingly look further outside of suburban and metropolitan areas to find cheaper land that provides more building opportunities,” explained NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said the data highlights the fact that housing costs are increasing at a faster pace in large metro suburban counties.

“Supply-side issues that are hurting affordability and raising costs for builders include excessive regulations, labor shortages, rising material costs and a dearth of buildable lots in mid- to high population centers,” Dietz said.

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https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49154-priced-out-of-the-housing-market-more-americans-move-to-the-exurbs

Mortgage rates average 4.27% | Armonk Real Estate

For the fourth straight month, information compiled by Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates continued to fall in March 2019. The 30-year FRM – Commitment rate, fell by ten basis points to 4.27 percent from 4.37 percent in February. The cycle peak was 4.87 percent in November.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that the contract rate for newly-built homes, also declined by five basis points to 4.53 percent in March. Mortgage rates on purchases of newly built homes (MIRS) declined by ten basis points over the month of March to 4.36 percent from 4.46 percent in February.

According to the May 2019 Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement, the Fed is likely to continue a “patient approach” stance to rate setting for the next several months. As expected, it kept the target for the federal funds rate at its setting of 2.25-2.50 percent. The post-meeting statement characterized growth as solid, but noted that broad inflation measures had declined and were running below the FOMC’s 2% inflation target. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the two percent objective as the most likely outcomes. Considering global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

As of the end of March, the 10-year Treasury rate, is slightly up to 2.52%. The increased rate has contributed to an increase in the mortgage interest rates in the last few weeks. The average 30-Year Fixed market rate, according to Freddie Mac, was at 4.20% at the end of April compared to 4.06% at the end of March. At the end of 2018, the average 30-Year Fixed market rate was 4.64%.

Refinancing Activity Soars Due to Rate Declines | Armonk Real Estate

Amid growing concerns about housing affordability, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey show a surge in home refinancing, a week-to-week increase of 39% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The increase is contemporaneous with the fourth consecutive week of mortgage rates’ declining. Despite the widespread decrease in mortgage rates, changes in purchasing activity (i.e., purchases on new or existing homes) were not as sensitive to the drop as were applications to refinance.

The last 20 years’ data of the MBA’s Purchasing and Refinancing Indexes show that refinancing activity of homes is often volatile. In early 2000, refi and purchase applications were almost the same but, the refinancing index climbed to multiples of the purchasing index over the next few years. The current period shows this divergence, as higher levels than the current level of refinancing had not been seen since late 2016.

The data also show that purchase applications are almost 10% higher than they were a year ago, that refinance applications are 58% higher on a year-over-year basis, and that, combined, both purchase and refi applications are almost 30% higher than they were a year ago. Despite the tight lending environment of 2019, as anticipated by banks’ senior loan officers in the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, the data show a rise in applications on a year-to-date and year-over-year basis, which may partially offset tighter lending standards. The mortgage applications for purchase index is usually a leading indicator for forthcoming home sales, but the latter may be conflated by other factors, such as all-cash sales. The prior few months’ data lean less to such a conclusion, as the upward trend of the purchase index in January 2019 was subsequently followed up by increases in new and existing home sales in February.

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Mortgage rates average 4.08% | Armonk Real Estate

Mortgage Rates Remain Stable
 Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that mortgage rates held steady after seeing major drops last week. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Purchase mortgage application demand saw the second highest weekly increase over the last year and thanks to a spike in refinancing activity, overall mortgage demand rose to the highest level since the fall of 2016.”Khater continued, “While the housing market has faced many head winds the last few months, it sailed through the turbulence to calmer seas with demand buttressed by a strong labor market and low mortgage rates. The benefits of the decline in mortgage rates that we’ve seen this year will continue to unfold over the next few months due to the lag from changes in mortgage rates to market sentiment and ultimately home sales.”

News Facts30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending April 4, 2019, up from last week when it averaged 4.06 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent. 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.56 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.57 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.87 percent. 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.66 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.62 percent.Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.

Why US infrastucture policy is so hard | Armonk Real Estate

In an era of partisan strife, Americans of all political parties overwhelmingly agree on one issue: we need better infrastructure. Crumbling bridges, unsafe water, and communities without broadband threaten our nation’s health, safety, and economic future. Yet the federal government’s role has remained largely unchanged for generations. Why is it so hard to find consensus on such an obvious problem?D

In my three decades of work with the federal government, including my time in the White House, I kept running into the same three challenges. Our path to a new federal infrastructure policy is blocked by irrational expectations around limited funding, a failure to appreciate the diversity of needs, and misaligned incentives.

Our path to a new federal infrastructure policy is blocked by irrational expectations around limited funding, a failure to appreciate the diversity of needs, and misaligned incentives.

Let’s start with expectations.

Regretfully, federal funding is a zero-sum exercise. Federal funds for infrastructure come from individuals and companies in communities. If one community receives excess federal funding, then other communities are receiving less. Notwithstanding strong desires to the contrary, the same taxpayers contributing federal dollars are also those paying into state and local coffers. Infrastructure commentators frequently note that state and local governments cannot afford to pay for all of their infrastructure needs, so the federal government should help. Sure, the federal government can take revenues from another location or borrow against the future, but the net effect is either zero today or long-run borrowing costs.

Irrational expectations make it difficult to have reasoned policy conversations. My son used to tutor math, and one of his more creative students tried to dismiss poor test performance by declaring, “math lies.” Similarly, many shaping infrastructure policy are trying to utilize aspirational infrastructure investment math by pursuing a fantasy that federal funds can be spent on infrastructure without imposing a burden on state and local taxpayers. The inaccurate perception of the possibility of “free” federal investment leads to unattainable expectations.

While policymakers are struggling with infrastructure math, they are also facing a marvelously diverse set of infrastructure needs. When the federal government first seriously jumped into infrastructure investment, our needs as a nation were more clearly defined. For example, we needed a network of highways to connect the continent. The 1956 Highway Act addressed that need by imposing a national tax and providing a national benefit.

Fast forward six decades and our nation’s needs are vastly more diverse. In the 1950s and 1960s, the challenges were connectivity; today, it is safety, congestion, older pipes, functional bandwidth, and environmental impact. The locus of the need has also changed. The infrastructure needs of the last century were largely national in nature; today our needs are mostly local. While the federal government excelled in delivering the Interstate System, it is not well positioned to help with the broad diversity of infrastructure issues vexing our communities in the 21st century.

While the federal government excelled in delivering the Interstate System, it is not well positioned to help with the broad diversity of infrastructure issues vexing our communities in the 21st century.

Our country’s diversity of needs is amplified by diversity of ownership. Unlike many countries, most infrastructure in the U.S. is owned at the state and local level. Given the nomenclature, many Americans think the federal government owns the Interstates and the rest of the Federal Highway System, but those highways are all owned by state and local governments. Water systems are almost all locally-owned, resulting in Americans receiving water from over 51,000 community water systems. As we move further into the 21st century, our infrastructure needs will be increasingly defined by our 89,004 local governments, not by one federal government.

The third and final challenge to improving the federal role in our nation’s infrastructure is the most daunting. Federal involvement in funding state- and locally-owned infrastructure suppresses investment and encourages delay.

Three-quarters of infrastructure investment is made at the state and local level, yet the remote possibility of federal funding encourages governors, mayors, and county executives to postpone increasing infrastructure investment in the hope their projects will receive federal funds. This dynamic is akin to telling shoppers there is a small likelihood they will receive a coupon for 80 percent off their next suit purchase. Consumers will rationally engage in what economists call strategic delay and postpone their purchase in the hope of receiving a coupon. Many will continue to delay until their suit (our infrastructure) becomes unacceptably shoddy and worn. A few brave state and local leaders have ignored this disincentive to invest by boosting revenue, but they have done so at the peril of a future political opponent criticizing them for not working harder to get federal funding.

The federal government should reverse this coupon effect and build on the success of past incentive programs such as tax credits for renewable energy and the Smart Cities Challenge program. In all these cases, the federal government provided incentives to encourage investment, and the incentives resulted in a dramatic increase in available resources. Without this realignment, the coupon effect will encourage project proponents to ignore local resources and instead take lobbying trips to Washington, D.C.

This dynamic was displayed during a breakfast I hosted in the White House with a delegation seeking federal funding for a port project. Their best selling point was a study demonstrating the seven dollars in economic benefits that would be generated for every dollar invested in the port. I thanked them and pointed out they were in the wrong city. They should be in New York, not Washington, as there is virtually no limit to the number of investors interested in a return of such magnitude.

Updating our nation’s infrastructure policy will be challenging, but it is critical. Infrastructure is the only policy area affecting services utilized by every American, every day. Improving our nation’s infrastructure not only helps spur economic growth, but also dramatically improves our quality of life. Repeated public opinion surveys have shown that the vast majority of Americans want better infrastructure. People are tired of wasting time in traffic, worrying about water quality, or living without broadband.

Improving our nation’s infrastructure not only helps spur economic growth, but also dramatically improves our quality of life.

Overcoming the problems of expectations, diversity of need, and misaligned incentives requires us to work with the real owners of infrastructure assets: governors, mayors and county executives. They are best positioned to develop a post-Interstate, 21st century infrastructure policy framework that provides a more efficient way to build and maintain the world’s best infrastructure.

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California sales plummet | Armonk Real Estate

For the data: Full Excel

SFH Sales & Price  |  SFH UII & MTM  |  SFH SqFt & SL Ratio

CDO Sales & Price  |  CDO UII & MTM  | CDO SqFt & SL Ratio


For presentation:   PPT  |   PDF

For more related new releases:  Newstand

December-18Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family HomesSales
State/Region/CountyDec-18Nov-18 Dec-17 Price MTM% ChgPrice YTY% ChgSales MTM% ChgSales YTY% Chg
CA SFH (SAAR)$557,600$554,760 $549,550r0.5%1.5%-2.4%-11.6%
CA Condo/Townhomes$460,660$465,770 $446,840 -1.1%3.1%-10.0%-21.4%
Los Angeles Metropolitan Area$500,000$512,000 $495,000r-2.3%1.0%-8.3%-17.8%
Central Coast$717,650$672,500 $657,500 6.7%9.1%-15.2%-24.9%
Central Valley$317,500$320,000 $310,000 -0.8%2.4%-8.0%-15.7%
Inland Empire$359,000$363,620 $342,000r-1.3%5.0%-10.1%-19.8%
S.F. Bay Area$850,000$905,000 $882,000r-6.1%-3.6%-20.2%-17.5%
          
S.F. Bay AreaDec-18Nov-18 Dec-17 Price MTM% ChgPrice YTY% ChgSales MTM% ChgSales YTY% Chg
Alameda$850,000$900,000 $862,000 -5.6%-1.4%-24.2%-19.9%
Contra Costa$612,500$641,000 $600,000 -4.4%2.1%-19.1%-16.7%
Marin$1,270,500$1,172,944 $1,268,900 8.3%0.1%-21.3%-12.6%
Napa$725,000$683,500 $688,000 6.1%5.4%-14.1%-21.8%
San Francisco$1,500,000$1,442,500 $1,475,000 4.0%1.7%-24.5%11.3%
San Mateo$1,483,000$1,500,000 $1,500,000 -1.1%-1.1%-24.0%-20.4%
Santa Clara$1,150,000$1,250,000 $1,300,000 -8.0%-11.5%-22.0%-20.6%
Solano$425,000$450,000 $416,000 -5.6%2.2%-13.0%-18.5%
Sonoma$639,000$612,500 $670,000 4.3%-4.6%-10.0%-16.7%
Southern CaliforniaDec-18Nov-18 Dec-17 Price MTM% ChgPrice YTY% ChgSales MTM% ChgSales YTY% Chg
Los Angeles$588,140$553,940 $577,690r6.2%1.8%-3.0%-16.3%
Orange$785,000$795,000 $785,500 -1.3%-0.1%-15.5%-18.3%
Riverside$398,000$400,000 $385,000 -0.5%3.4%-4.9%-17.7%
San Bernardino$295,000$299,450 $278,000 -1.5%6.1%-17.4%-23.1%
San Diego$618,500$626,000 $605,000 -1.2%2.2%-7.4%-14.7%
Ventura$640,000$643,740 $645,000 -0.6%-0.8%-14.0%-13.8%
Central CoastDec-18Nov-18 Dec-17 Price MTM% ChgPrice YTY% ChgSales MTM% ChgSales YTY% Chg
Monterey$590,000$630,000 $614,000 -6.3%-3.9%-26.1%-31.0%
San Luis Obispo$640,000$624,000 $590,000 2.6%8.5%-16.3%-23.7%
Santa Barbara$806,030$550,000 $730,000 46.6%10.4%-1.1%-14.8%
Santa Cruz$926,000$862,500 $831,000 7.4%11.4%-16.2%-31.7%
Central ValleyDec-18Nov-18 Dec-17 Price MTM% ChgPrice YTY% ChgSales MTM% ChgSales YTY% Chg
Fresno$266,500$265,750 $259,750 0.3%2.6%-4.1%-4.7%
Glenn$246,500$225,000 $230,000 9.6%7.2%77.8%113.3%
Kern$242,380$235,250 $233,000 3.0%4.0%-7.1%-7.8%
Kings$243,000$222,000 $225,000 9.5%8.0%-7.1%-17.0%
Madera$263,000$265,000 $239,000r-0.8%10.0%-18.8%-34.6%
Merced$269,060$261,930 $239,900 2.7%12.2%22.0%11.9%
Placer$492,993$461,000 $451,500 6.9%9.2%-10.2%-18.5%
Sacramento$364,500$365,000 $350,000 -0.1%4.1%-14.8%-22.4%
San Benito$577,000$583,200 $537,000 -1.1%7.4%-15.9%-28.8%
San Joaquin$365,000$365,000 $349,720 0.0%4.4%1.1%-14.1%
Stanislaus$309,000$310,000 $300,000 -0.3%3.0%-6.2%-16.0%
Tulare$236,450$237,400 $219,500 -0.4%7.7%-11.5%-20.1%
Other Counties in CaliforniaDec-18Nov-18 Dec-17 Price MTM% ChgPrice YTY% ChgSales MTM% ChgSales YTY% Chg
AmadorNANA $305,000 NANANANA
Butte$356,558$326,940 $304,000 9.1%17.3%97.5%105.3%
Calaveras$310,000$325,000 $285,000 -4.6%8.8%11.7%-26.5%
Del Norte$243,900$250,000 $251,500 -2.4%-3.0%-40.0%-36.8%
El Dorado$454,500$461,750 $450,000 -1.6%1.0%-15.5%-33.6%
Humboldt$308,000$310,000 $319,500 -0.6%-3.6%-15.3%-28.4%
Lake$269,000$255,000 $269,500 5.5%-0.2%17.7%-6.4%
Lassen$208,000$184,000 $175,000 13.0%18.9%53.3%0.0%
Mariposa$320,000$355,000 $310,000 -9.9%3.2%0.0%40.0%
Mendocino$424,900$414,000 $409,500 2.6%3.8%-17.0%-2.2%
Mono$541,000$725,000 $515,000 -25.4%5.0%-55.6%-42.9%
Nevada$389,950$399,000 $393,500 -2.3%-0.9%1.1%-6.0%
Plumas$262,950$289,500 $256,000 -9.2%2.7%0.0%-13.3%
Shasta$267,500$283,000 $258,250 -5.5%3.6%-1.3%6.8%
Siskiyou$182,500$226,000 $192,500 -19.2%-5.2%-13.5%-33.3%
Sutter$320,000$296,000 $270,000 8.1%18.5%26.6%5.2%
Tehama$255,000$199,000 $190,000 28.1%34.2%184.6%100.0%
Tuolumne$258,950$288,500 $269,900 -10.2%-4.1%21.2%27.0%
Yolo$429,000$429,500 $420,000 -0.1%2.1%-1.0%-19.8%
Yuba$298,000$263,000 $241,000 13.3%23.7%2.5%Read17.4%

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https://www.car.org/marketdata/data/countysalesactivity

Westchester median sales price up 1.2% in 2018 | Armonk Real Estate

WHITE PLAINS—While remaining robust, residential sales in some areas of the lower Hudson Valley were slightly lower in 2018 than the historic highs of the past two years. In 2018, Westchester, Rockland and Orange counties all experienced declines in the number of residential sales as compared to 2017, according to the “2018 Annual and Fourth Quarter Residential Real Estate Sales Report for Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange Counties, New York” released on Jan. 9 by the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc.

Putnam, Bronx and Sullivan counties, which are also served by the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, were the exceptions experiencing increases in residential sales of 4.7% in Sullivan, 1.9% in Putnam and 1% in Bronx County in 2018.

The lower Hudson Valley experienced historically low inventories of single-family homes at the beginning of the year, which may have contributed to an initial decline of sales. Rockland County, which experienced an 11.5% drop in sales of single-family homes, also saw an increase of 11.4% in sales of 2-4 family homes and an increase of 2.5% in condo sales. Days on market, the number of days from the time a home is listed for sale to the time of a fully executed contract of sale, was significantly lower in all counties.

Another indication of healthy demand in the housing market was the increase in sales price in all counties. Westchester County, which had the highest number of single-family home sales at 5,876 units, experienced a rise of 1.2% in median price to $650,000, up from $642,000 a year earlier. Orange County, with 3,827 units sold, saw an increase of 6.4% in its median to $258,600 from $243,000 a year earlier. Despite the diminution of units sold in Rockland County, the median sales price rose 4.5% to $460,000 from $440,000 a year earlier. Putnam County, which had a 2.2% increase in unit sales, also had a 3.7% increase in median price rising to $350,000 from $337,500 a year earlier.

Overall, in 2018, 21,338 residential units were sold in the areas covered by Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service. This was a drop of 2.6% from the prior year. Possible headwinds for the housing market for 2019 continue to be the unknown effect of the tax reform law of 2018, which limits the deductibility state and local taxes, and a volatile stock market. However, given the improving inventory numbers, continuing attractive mortgage interest rates, high employment in the region, and a healthy economy it is anticipated that the market will remain vibrant in 2019.

The Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (HGMLS) is a subsidiary of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. (HGAR). HGMLS’s principal service area consists of Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange and Sullivan counties. It also provides services to Realtors in Bronx, Dutchess and Ulster counties.

The reported transactions do not include all real estate sales in the area or all sales assisted by the participating offices, but they are fairly reflective of general market activity. HGMLS does not provide data on sub-county areas, but persons desiring such data are invited to contact Realtor offices in the desired areas. Prior reports back to 1981 as well as current market information and a directory of Realtor members are available on the Association’s website at www.hgar.com.

Note: The median sale price is the mid-point of all reported sales, i.e., half of the properties sold for more than the median price and half for less. The median is relatively unaffected by unusually high or low sales prices. The mean sale price is the arithmetic average, i.e., the sum of all sales prices divided by the number of sales. The mean does reflect the influence of sales at unusually low or high prices.

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Real estate predictions from last year | Armonk Real Estate

New York Real Estate Predictions 2018

There’s no shortage of doom and gloom talk about a US housing crash that would take NYC down with it. In fact the recent reports of high foreclosure rates in Queens, Bronx and Staten Island are a little alarming. They’re not quite as negative though as those in other cities.

The 3rd quarter market performance was less than stellar, the worst in many years.

Yet the Trump tax bill may just rectify the foreclosure carnage even as it slowed sales and lowered property prices as investors and buyers waited it out. The wait might be over now.

Overall home prices rose above $1,000,000 and condo prices fell 11% to an average of $2,689,147. It’s the high end properties that got hit hardest. At the lower end, NYC has a full blown housing shortage.

With income averaging about $60,000 per year in New York City, it’s difficult for many to buy homes averaging $680,000.  It’s estimated that to buy a home in NYC, you need an income of $100,000. New York State’s economy was a sluggish under performer in 2016, however in the last 12 months NYC has gained 68,000 jobs. In November alone, NY State grew 26,000 new jobs.

The US economy persistently grows and improves despite the terrible debt and trade deficits left by the Obama administration. The Trump Administration new Tax bill are being viewed as positive and have quietened talks of housing market and stock market crashes.

Bar any issues with trade relations, and President Trump’s recent visit to China is a good start, all should go nicely with the US housing scene and help New York recover further. It could be said that NY’s inability to create new housing has made it too expensive to live their. That scares away business and makes buyers suspicious of a NY housing crash.

This chart below from the Case Shiller Home price index shows NYC’s real estate is stable and optimistic.

NYSAR New York Real Estate Update December

Here’s the latest New York housing stats published by NYSAR, shows the typical US housing data, that supply of affordable homes has dropped 1%, sales are down 2.5%, and average prices are up 7% from last year.

You could say that just like the San Francisco market and  Los Angeles market, and all major city markets across North America, the New York housing market is under pressure.  The NYC forecast is for more of the same, but at least, the market here isn’t like it is in Seattle, the Bay Area, or Los Angeles county.

It’s pretty far fetched that New York’s real estate performance could deviate too much from the US national forecast. A crash isn’t favored by the stats.

Is 2018 the right year to invest in rental income property?  Contrast the stock market to investing in real estate.

Some Experts are Talkin’ Crash while Others Aren’t

There are enough media and realty pundits talking about a real estate market crash in New York soon. CNBC called from one back in the spring, but it’s not happening. Prices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, have kept rising slowly.

A Tale of Two Markets?

It’s softening in the high end luxury sector where DOM is lengthening and prices have dropped almost 1% during 2016 according to one report. But demand at the lower end has stayed strong.

New York State Realtor Association is Optimistic

NYSAR reiterated NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s keynote speech at the 2016 REALTORS® Conference & Expo in Orlando, Florida. Yun explained that younger buyers are likely to drive growth in residential markets in the years ahead as the economy stays on a positive track and interest rates stay relatively low.

Here’s the 3rd quarter market report from NYSAR. New listings are down from the previous quarter, avg/med prices are up and number of months supply has dropped 29%.

Here’s an exerpt from NYSAR’s latest new report:

“Looking ahead, the modest closed sales increases in September and the third quarter may signal that the continued decline in available homes is starting to impede closed sales growth,” MacKenzie said, noting the 20.7 % decline in homes on the market at the end of the third quarter compared to the same period in 2015. “Buyers, who are trying to take advantage of otherwise favorable market conditions, are finding fewer choices available to them causing them to delay the purchase of their next home.”

The year-to-date (Jan. 1 – Sept. 30) sales total of 95,453 was 11% above the same period last year. There were 38,629 closed sales in the 2016 third quarter, up 2.8% from the 2016 third quarter total of 37,575. September 2016 closed sales increased 2.1%compared to a year ago to reach 11,780.

 

The New York Building Congress Forecast 2017 to 2018

Calls for $127.5 Billion in Total Spending Through 2018. 2016 was a record year for housing sales and jumped past the $40 billion mark for the first time. NYBC also forecasts a total of 147,100 jobs in NY’s 5 boroughs in 2016, an increase of 8,900 jobs from 2015 but will fall a few percent to 142,600 jobs in 2017 and 138,100 in 2018.

These screen caps are from HUD’s Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis of New York City, NY. New York’s economy was rolling along nicely.

 

Is that forecasted softening in employment enough to cause a crash?

The Building Congress’s outlook for new home construction is 27,000 new units and $13.1 billion of residential spending in 2017, and 25,000 units and $12.7 billion in spending in 2018. That’s down significantly from the 36,000 units built in 2015. With nowhere to live we can expect residents new and old to bid on resale stock and that should keep home prices level.

Donald Trump did make an election promise to cut government spending and tax the wealthy and that could make an impact, yet it appears private demand is what is driving the economy right now.

Removal of the Dodd Frank noose and easing of mortgage lending should create more demand for homes in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle, Houston, SF Bay Area, Miami, and well, every US city. If land development regulations are eased, it will allow for more home construction and help to ease the auctions atmosphere that has rocketed them upward.

It’s a health forecast with strong demand, stable mortgage rates, looser rules on financing, and a government bent on creating jobs in 2018 to 2020. Full speed ahead.

 

read more…

 

https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/new-york-real-estate-market-forecast/

Towns that pay you to move there | Armonk Real Estate

  1. Detroit, Michigan                           Several employers in Detroit, Michigan, including Blue Cross Blue Shield and Quicken Loans, will pay their employees to live downtown, close to where they work. New renters can receive $3,500 over two years toward the cost of their apartment, and those who renew leases can receive $1,000. And if you buy a new home in an eligible neighborhood, you could be looking at $20,000 in forgivable loans toward the purchase of a primary residence.
  2. Baltimore, Maryland                        It pays to buy a home in Baltimore—literally! Qualifying buyers can receive $5,000 toward the purchase of a primary residence through the Buying Into Baltimore or City Living Starts Here programs. Those willing to buy a home that has been vacant can apply to the Vacants to Value Booster Program, which awards $10,000 to eligible home buyers to put toward closing costs.
  3. Niagara Falls, New York                    Niagara Falls wants to attract more than just tourists—and they’re looking for young people, in particular. In an effort to combat its population decline and recruit new residents, the city of Niagara Falls promises to pay off up to $7,000 in student loan debt over two years for any recent graduates who live near Main Street.
  4. New Haven, Connecticut                     New Haven, Connecticut, is really rolling out the red carpet for new residents. First-time home buyers can receive up to $10,000 in forgivable loans to put toward down payments and closing costs. And for anyone buying a historic (and out-of-date) home, New Haven may provide up to $30,000 in forgivable loans to perform energy-saving upgrades. Plus, parents of school-age kids may not have to sock away money for college, thanks to the city’s commitment to provide free in-state college tuition to any child who graduates from New Haven public schools.
  5. Anywhere, Alaska                                    Do you dream of living in Alaska? If you do, you could earn $1,000 a year just for living there. The state of Alaska maintains a Permanent Reserve Fund that pays dividends to residents who have lived in the state for at least one calendar year and plan to remain there indefinitely. So, pack your thermals and head out for a new life of adventure.
  6. Harmony, Minnesota                              With a population that hovers around 1,000, Harmony, Minnesota, wants to grow. If you build a brand-new home there, the Harmony Economic Development Authority will give you up to $12,000 in the form of a cash rebate. Nestled in the midst of some of the Midwest’s biggest farms, “The Biggest Little Town in Southern Minnesota” may be the perfect destination for anyone who loves country life but still wants modern amenities like shops, restaurants, and quality schools.
  7. Marquette, Kansas                                  Marquette, Kansas, will give you land to build a home—for free. This small town in the heart of America wants to attract new families to the Westridge area, where residents can enjoy spectacular views of the sunset and rolling hills, typical of the big-sky prairie. With only 650 residents, it’s a place where neighbors know each other and parents feel comfortable letting their kids play outside and walk to school.
  8. Lincoln, Kansas                                         Lincoln, Kansas, has built a completely new subdivision filled with zero-dollar lots for eligible newcomers to build a home. The small-town neighborhood boasts proximity to the city park, baseball field, and the junior-senior high school as well as the Lincoln Carnegie library, the golf course, and the rolling hills overlooking the Saline River.
  9. Curtis, Nebraska                                         Free home sites are available to build new homes in the Roll’n Hills subdivision of Curtis, Nebraska. Described as Nebraska’s Easter City—a nod to their annual Palm Sunday pageant—Curtis has a 9-hole golf course and is home to the Nebraska College of Technical Agriculture.

read more…

https://www.bobvila.com/slideshow/9-towns-that-ll-pay-you-to-move-there-50850#new-haven-connecticut-housing-incentive