The number of homes nationwide gaining value on a monthly basis are expected to fall by 12 percent over the next 10 months as the housing recovery slows. Just over half, 51.3 percent, of America’s homes will continue to appreciate by October 2016, according to forecasts by Weiss Analytics.
The percentage of homes losing value nationwide are expected to decline, but fewer than the decline in appreciating homes. Some 23.2 percent of homes are expected to depreciate on a monthly basis, a 6.4 percent drop from October 2015.
The forecasted decline in appreciating homes will continue a multi-year decline. Since July 2014, the percentage of appreciating homes has fallen from 65.2 percent to 58.4 percent in October 2014 despite a 4.5 percent uptick in August. The Weiss forecast predicts a 21 percent. decline over a 27-month period in the number of homes nationwide that are gaining value on a monthly basis.
Among the metros forecasted to be among the top ten appreciating markets in the nation by October 2016 are several that suffered some of the greatest losses in median home prices when the housing bubble burst in 2007. These include Reno NV, forecast to have 98.3 percent of its homes appreciating on a monthly basis; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, forecast to have 93 percent of homes appreciating; Stockton-Lodi, forecast to have 89.1 percent of homes appreciating; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, to have 84.4 percent of homes appreciating and Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC, to have 83.3 percent of homes appreciating.
Metros that will have the lowest appreciation rates in October 2014 are all from the South and Midwest. Raleigh, NN will have the lowest appreciation rate of 1.2%. Only 3,757 of the 306,901 Raleigh homes in the Weiss database will be gaining value on a monthly basis.
“During the past three years the recovery has generated year over year double digit annual price increases. Our data and analytics show that the pace of change in home values is slowing down—both among homes that are losing value as well as those that have been appreciating. This retrenchment may delay the return to price parity in some markets but it in others it will help to prevent the formation of bubbles of overvalued properties that could result in defaults,” said Allan Weiss, CEO and founder of Weiss Analytics and former CEO and co-founder of Case Shiller Weiss.