Appreciating Homes Increased in Third Quarter | Katonah Real Estate

The number of homes nationwide gaining value on a monthly basis increased during the third quarter from 56.80 percent in July to 59.37 percent of all homes in September and the appreciation rate increased for the third straight month. However, the percentage of homes gaining value still trails the rate of 66.31 percent in September 2014, Allan Weiss, CEO of Weiss Analytics, reported

As more homes moved out of price stagnation (with annual value change within plus 1.5% to -1.5% per year) houses both appreciating and decreasing both increased.  The percentage of homes losing value rose during the quarter, from 23.40 percent in July to 26.37 percent in September.

Unlike reports based on listings or sales prices that cover only the 3 to 4 percent of homes that are sold every year, Weiss Analytics tracks actual values for all homes, using repeat sales indexes for nearly 45 million individual properties.  The Weiss index database makes it possible to provide highly accurate value trends for specific addresses and measure trends in change values on a hyper local level.  Weiss home value forecasts are widely used to determine owners’ equity, help home buyers make decisions and provide accurate forecasts of future value for lenders and investors.

“It’s too soon to know if the gain over the past three months will become a significant trend.  We are still seven points below the appreciation rate last year and the gap in depreciating homes has grown to more than 12 points—a cause for concern in many markets.  Moreover, trends in appreciation are reflecting significant regional differences.  Hotter markets in the West and Pacific States reflect rising prices and impact affordability in some markets.  Levels of appreciation found in markets like Trenton, Worcester and Allentown are falling at double digit rates,” said Allan Weiss, CEO of Weiss Analytics and former CEO of Case Shiller Weiss.

 

National Percentages of Appreciating and Depreciating Homes

September

August

July

September 2014

Total Appreciating

59.37%

59.20%

56.80%

66.31%

Total Depreciating

26.37%

27.00%

23.40%

14.24%

Selected Markets

The selected markets below illustrate the regional nature of appreciation trends today. Markets that enjoyed high rates of participation in rising values like San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles and Denver have seen their participation rates drop dramatically.  Among these markers, only Phoenix has a higher rate than it did a year ago.

 

Metro

September 2014

September 2015

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

94.9%

85.6%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

88.3%

80.5%

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA

97.5%

78.8%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

66.5%

72.5%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

81.3%

67.7%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

91.0%

66.7%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

90.2%

58.3%

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

58.2%

53.0%

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

53.2%

48.3%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

48.3%

47.5%

Top Performing Markets

In September Flint, MI led the nation in percentage of appreciating homes, reaching 100 percent of the properties in the Weiss Analytics database, a 39.3 percent improvement over a year ago.  Second was Reno, NV with 92.9 percent of homes appreciating. Portland was third with 96.3 percent.  Six of the ten markets are Western.

 

Metro Sep-14 Sep-15 Change
Flint, MI

60.7%

100.0%

39.3%

Reno, NV

98.0%

92.9%

-5.0%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

93.8%

86.3%

-7.5%

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

94.9%

85.6%

-9.4%

Stockton-Lodi, CA

93.9%

84.8%

-9.1%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

94.0%

84.4%

-9.6%

Port St. Lucie, FL

94.5%

84.0%

-10.5%

Madison, WI

61.3%

81.3%

19.9%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

88.3%

80.5%

-7.8%

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

91.0%

79.8%

-11.3%

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