Category Archives: Katonah

Housing Share of GDP Climbs to 13-Year High | Katonah Real Estate

Housing will lead the economic recovery. Due to low mortgage interest rates, a renewed focus on the importance of home, and a lack of for-sale inventory, housing data has been a relative bright spot as the overall economy struggles to establish a rebound.

Due to this broader weakness (GDP declined at a -32.9% rate for the second quarter) and gains for residential-related economic activity, housing’s share of GDP reached its highest mark since the third quarter of 2007, increasing to 16.2% during the second quarter of 2020. The home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment – held at 3.3% of GDP.

Housing gains will continue as the consequences of the virus crisis are likely to lead to a reversal for declining home size trends and a greater need for additional home office space. For these and other reasons, home building and remodeling have demand-side potential that can help fuel a recovery in the labor market, given the widespread impact that construction has on the economy in terms of jobs and state/local tax revenue.

Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.

The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building, multifamily development, and remodeling contributions to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees.

For the second quarter, RFI was 3.3% of the economy, recording a $564 billion seasonally adjusted annual pace (measured in inflation adjusted 2012 dollars). This did represent a decline from the first quarter, which recorded a post-Great Recession high pace of $638 billion.

The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services, which includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach, because without this measure, increases in homeownership would result in declines for GDP.

For the second quarter, housing services represented 12.9% of the economy or $2.2 trillion on seasonally adjusted annual basis.

Taken together, housing’s share of GDP was 16.2% for the quarter.

Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle. However, the housing share of GDP lagged during the post-Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly for the single-family sector.

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eyeonhousing.org/2020/07/

Mortgage rate falls to 2.98% | Katonah Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 2.98 percent, the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971.

“Mortgage rates fell below 3 percent for the first time in 50 years. The drop has led to increased homebuyer demand and, these low rates have been capitalized into asset prices in support of the financial markets,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “However, the countervailing force for the economy has been the rise in new virus cases which has caused the economic recovery to stagnate, and this economic pause puts many temporary layoffs at risk of ossifying into permanent job losses.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.98 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 16, 2020, down from 3.03 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.81 percent.  
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.48 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.51 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.23 percent.  
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.06 percent with an average 0.3 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.02 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.48 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Active loan forbearance falls | Katonah Real Estate

  • The volume of loans in active forbearance, in which borrowers are allowed to delay their monthly payments, fell by 435,000 from the previous week, according to mortgage data firm Black Knight.
  • That is the largest one-week drop yet.
  • Roughly 4.14 million loans were in forbearance, representing 7.8% of all active mortgages, down from 8.6% the prior week. That’s the lowest amount since April 28.
A man walks past the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, June 25, 2020.

A man walks past the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, June 25, 2020.Al Drago | Reuters

The number of homeowners in government and private sector mortgage bailout plans declined for the second straight week, as borrowers who got in earliest saw their plans expire.

More borrowers, however, are getting extensions of those initial three-month plans, proving the pain in the market is not over yet.

As of Tuesday, the volume of loans in active forbearance, in which borrowers are allowed to delay their monthly payments, fell by 435,000 from the previous week, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data and technology firm. That is the largest one-week drop yet.

Roughly 4.14 million loans were in forbearance, representing 7.8% of all active mortgages, down from 8.6% the prior week. That’s the lowest amount since April 28. These loans together represent just under $900 billion in unpaid principal.WATCH NOWVIDEO03:31Covid-19 mortgage bailouts drop by 435,000 but extensions increase

By category, about 6% of all mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and 11.6% of all FHA/VA loans are in forbearance plans. Just over 8.2% of loans in private label securities or banks’ portfolios are also in forbearance. The largest drop in forbearances was in Fannie and Freddie mortgages, down by 200,000 during the week

“The reduction of roughly 435,000 was driven at least in part by the fact that more than half of all active forbearance plans entering the month were set to expire at the end of June,” said Andy Walden, an economist with Black Knight. “While the majority of those have been extended, this week’s data suggests a significant share were not.”

More than 26% of loans in forbearance were extensions, according to a count by the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending June 28. That share has increased steadily for the past three weeks. 

The bulk of the loans in forbearance are government backed and part of the mortgage bailout program in the CARES Act, which President Donald Trump signed into law in March. It allows borrowers to miss monthly payments for at least three months and potentially up to a year. Those payments can be remitted either in repayment plans, loan modifications, or when the home is sold or the mortgage refinanced. For loans not backed by the government, most banks and private lenders have set up similar plans.

While the drop in active mortgage forbearances is encouraging, recent spikes in coronavirus cases in various states, in addition to the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits at the end of this month, present significant risk to the recovery in the mortgage market.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-mortgage-bailout-sees-biggest-one-week-decline-yet.html

89% of renters are paying rent | Katonah Real Estate

The National Multifamily Housing Council’s Rent Payment Tracker has found that 89% of apartment households—sourced from 11.4 million professionally managed units across the country—had made a full or partial June 2020 rent payment by June 13.

This number represents an increase in the share of collections over the same periods in May and April, when 87.7% and 85% of renters had made a rent payment, respectively. Notably, it also shows a 0.1 percentage point increase over the share of collections during the same period in June 2019.

“Once again, it appears that residents of professionally managed apartments were able to largely pay their rent. However, there is a growing realization that renters outside of this universe are experiencing profound hardships as the nation continues to grapple with historic unemployment and economic dislocation,” says Doug Bibby, NMHC president.

While rent collections appear to be on the rise, NMHC vice president of business strategy Sarah Yaussi warns that this data is not necessarily a forward-looking indicator, and no sources are available to show how rent is being paid based on income resources. About half of renter households report being affected by unemployment, which suggests that unemployment benefits could make a difference in renters’ ability to pay. This could become a concern in August, when expanded unemployment benefits are due to expire.

When asked if the worst is behind us, Chase Harrington, COO of Entrata, says it’s hard to tell. Despite rising leasing activity in May and into June, he also notes a decrease in renewals, as well as a rise in month-to-month leases. Brian Zrimsek, industry principal at MRI Software, reports a substantial spike in credit card payments in May, which could suggest either rent payment by credit card out of necessity or an attempt to receive credit card perks based on the relaxing of limits.

“In the midst of a pandemic and a recession, it is critical that those on the front lines are safely and securely housed,” Bibby adds. “Accordingly, we urge lawmakers to take swift action to create a Rental Assistance Fund and extend unemployment benefits so we can avoid future eviction-related problems and don’t undermine the initial recovery.”

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https://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/property-management/rent-trends/

US homebuilding drops 30% | Katonah Real Estate

The US housing sector suffered contruction declines nationwide amid the pandemic (AFP Photo/JUSTIN SULLIVAN)
The US housing sector suffered contruction declines nationwide amid the pandemic (AFP Photo/JUSTIN SULLIVAN)

Construction of new homes plunged just over 30 percent in April from the previous month, amid the widespread US lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19, according to government data released Tuesday.

The collapse to just 897,000 units put the annual rate of housing starts 29.7 percent below the same month of 2019, the Commerce Department reported.

The declines were widespread across the country, with the Northeast taking the worst hit — a 44 percent drop in construction starts — while the Midwest saw a relatively small 15 percent decline.

Building of multifamily housing saw the most severe impact in most regions.

Meanwhile, permits for new construction, which in normal times is a sign of demand in the pipeline, fell 20.8 percent compared to March.

But with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, these are hardly normal times.

“Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many governments and businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely,” the Commerce Department said, adding that the data quality still meet publication standards.

Housing is a critical sector of the US economy and demand was high before the crisis, given low mortgage lending rates, and builders were struggling to keep up with demand while prices were moving higher.

Since the pandemic hit, the Federal Reserve has slashed the benchmark interest rate to zero, which could be expected to help support home buying. But with 30 million jobs lost to the pandemic — at least temporarily — the outlook remains uncertain.

Still, Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics said, “Housing construction likely has hit bottom.”

“A steep drop in activity was inevitable given the lockdowns, but we think these numbers will mark the floor; May will be better, and June better still,” he said in an analysis, noting that mortgage applications had picked up, recovering more than half the pandemic-related declines.

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afp.com

Mortgage purchase applications down 31% | Katonah Real Estate

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Weekly Application Survey shows a 0.3% seasonally adjusted decline in loan application volume from the previous week. The Refinance index decreased by 1% from the previous week and was 225% higher than it was the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index increased 2% from one week earlier but was 31% lower than it was the same time a year ago. The MBA notes that the pandemic-related economic stoppage has caused some buyers and sellers to delay their decisions until there are signs of a turnaround. This has resulted in reduced buyer traffic, less inventory, and March existing-homes sales falling to their slowest annual pace in nearly a year. Most importantly, the economic stoppage has halted the momentum in the housing market generated by young, would-be homebuyers, mostly from the millennial generation, preventing them from entering the market.

With the federal government’s recent passage of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act, not only did qualifying individuals receive economic impact payments, i.e., stimulus checks, but small businesses were also extended emergency advances of up to $10,000 as part of the Small Business Administration’s economic injury grant. With these measures in place, expanding businesses and families’ balance sheets to accommodate for more real estate is less of a priority than keeping their existing assets afloat. The CARES act also provides options for mortgage forbearance.

As can be seen from the above figure, year-over-year gains in refinancing skyrocketed in the middle of March and continued their upward trajectory towards the end of the second week of April. Year-over-year purchasing changes, however, slipped into negative territory for that period, posting a year-over-year decline of 31% in the latest week. The National Association of Realtors cites that lender credit standards such as higher down payments and credit scores would likely deter home sales’ bounce when the pandemic is over. Before the outbreak, foreclosure rates were at historic lows.

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eyeonhousing.org

NAHB builder’s survey week 3 | Katonah Real Estate

In the third week of NAHB’s online poll, the coronavirus’s impact on traffic of prospective buyers has become almost ubiquitous.  A full 96 percent of respondents said the virus was having at least some adverse effect on traffic, and 72 percent characterized it as a major adverse effect. However, if you are in need of professional home builders, then you can contact the Randy Jeffcoat Builders for their expertise.

This result is based on 256 responses collected online between March 31 and April 6.  As in the first two weeks of the poll, the largest share of responses in week 3 came from single-family home builders; and most were owner, president or CEO of their companies.  The geographic distribution of the responses continues to be somewhat variable, with the share of from Northeast increasing regularly, from 6 percent of all responses in week 1 of the poll to 15 percent in week 3.

The week 3 poll listed nine possible impacts of the coronavirus and asked if each has so far had a major, minor, or no adverse effect on respondents’ businesses.  Many of the adverse impacts have become extremely widespread.  In addition to traffic, over 80 percent of respondents for whom the items were applicable said the virus was having a noticeable, adverse impact on six aspects of their businesses:  cancellations or delays of existing remodeling projects (87 percent), homeowners’ concerns about interacting with remodeling crews (86 percent), how long it takes to obtain a plan review for a typical single-family home (also 86 percent), rate at which inquiries for remodeling work are coming in (85 percent), and how long it takes the local building department to respond to a request for an inspection (82 percent).

Less widespread but still cited as virus-induced problems by over 70 percent of respondents were willingness of workers and subs to report to a construction site and supply of building products and materials.  A new item added to the list in week 3, ability to obtain new business loans or deal with banks on existing loans, turned out to be the least common problem in the poll, but even that was cited by over half of respondents.

There has been a general tendency for the incidence of the various virus-induced problems to increase over time during the first three weeks of the online poll.  It is necessary to interpret this trend with caution, however, due to the rising share of responses coming from the Northeast, where problems have tended to be particularly widespread and severe.   Nevertheless, it is evident that willingness of workers to report to construction sites has become a growing concern, cited as a virus-induced problem by a consistently rising share of respondents in each of the four regions.

For additional details—including tables for each question broken down by respondents’ region, primary business, and position in the company—please see the full survey report.

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eyeonhousing.org

Housing industry experts look for glimmers of hope in dismal jobs report | Katonah Real Estate

The U.S. economy reported a plummet of 701,000 nonfarm payrolls in the early part of March, according to new data posted Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This marked the first decline in payrolls since September 2010. As a result, the unemployment rate increased by 0.9 percentage point to 4.4%, the greatest over-the-month increase since January 1975 and the highest unemployment level since August 2017.

The number of unemployed persons spiked by 1.4 million to 7.1 million in March, with the BLS citing the COVID-19 crisis for the statistical mayhem. The number of unemployed persons who reported being on temporary layoff more than doubled in March to 1.8 million while the number of permanent job losers increased by 177,000 to 1.5 million.

It’s important to note that this BLS report does not take the entire month of March into account. And recent data shows that nearly 10 million filed for unemployment in the last few weeks, meaning the BLS figure will rise significantly in next month’s report.

“This report reflects the initial impact on U.S. jobs of the public health measures being taken to contain the coronavirus,” Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia said in a statement. “It should be noted the report’s surveys only reference the week and pay periods that include March 12; we know that our report next month will show more extensive job losses, based on the high number of state unemployment claims reported yesterday and the week before.”

The leisure and hospitality industries were particularly hard hit with a loss of 459,000 jobs, and other industries experiencing acute declines included health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade and construction.

Within the mortgage and housing industry, there was a grim acknowledgment of an unprecedented economic crisis – yet several thought leaders tried to find bright spots in the dismal data.

Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, noted the report “showed almost an additional 1.5 million households now working part-time when they would rather have full-time hours. The decline in the participation rate already indicates that some workers are stepping back from even looking for a job as the pandemic crisis continues.”

Fratantoni predicted next month’s employment numbers will record higher levels of job losses, which would lead to “a drop in demand for purchase mortgages,” although refinancing activity is expected to remain vibrant. He also noted one small bright spot in the new data regarding home construction.

“Although construction employment declined last month, there was a small increase in residential construction, with the decline driven by non-residential builders,” he continued. “When housing demand recovers later this year, we will once again be facing a supply shortage, so it is good to see that homebuilders are continuing to hire.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, also acknowledged that the residential side of the construction industry was stronger than the commercial property side, adding that residential construction jobs “were steady and higher by 27,000 from a year ago for actual building construction and higher by 44,000 among general contractors. We had a housing shortage before going into the crisis and home builders were gearing up to relieve the inventory tightness.”

Yun also maintained a sense of hopefulness for the newly out-of-work, explaining that “the enhanced unemployment insurance checks to make up for a good portion of lost income” and the post-pandemic weeks will be framed by “spending power ready to be unleashed once the all-clear signal is declared.”

Anthony Casa, chairman of the Association of Independent Mortgage Experts, warned that the U.S. economy in general and housing in particular could withstand continued waves of millions filing for unemployment benefits, with small businesses facing an existential crisis because most companies in that sector “do not have the money to shut down for multiple months.” And while Casa praised the mortgage industry for remaining “very strong” thanks to historically low rates, he expressed concern over the real estate industry.

“The longer this goes on, the bigger the impact on them,” he said. “Real estate is in for a tough year if home values decline.”

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Case-Shiller home prices up 3.9% | Katonah Real Estate

National home prices continued to increase over the first month of 2020, prior to coronavirus outbreak. Price growth will certainly decline as future months’ data is recorded.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 6.2% in January, faster than a 5.3% increase in December. It was the highest gain since February 2018. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 3.9% annual gain in January, up from 3.7% in December. Going forward, national home prices are expected to increase at a slower pace due to the 2020 downturn.

Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in January, following a 9.1% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 5.2% in January, after an increase of 5.4% in December.

In addition to tracking home price changes nationwide, S&P also reported on the site of vpnicon the home price indexes across 20 metro areas. In January, local home prices varied and their annual growth rates ranged from -3.6% to 13.0%. Among the 20 metro areas, eight metro areas exceeded the national average of 6.2%. Seattle, Las Vegas and Phoenix had the highest home price appreciation in January. Seattle reported a 13.0% increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 8.5% increase and Phoenix with an 8.3% increase. Home prices in two metro areas declined in January. They were Chicago (-3.6%) and New York (-1.2%).

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Buying property in Molise Italy | Katonah Real Estate

buy a property in Molise

Have you ever heard about Molise?

Molise is a small region in the south of Italy. Molise is not a famous region, it is still off the tourist track but this doesn’t mean that this area has nothing to offer to its visitors.  There are beautiful sanctuaries, churches, abbeys, castles, medieval villages and  wonderful archeological sites.

Molise: where the nature is wild and uncontaminated, the climate is mild and just in one hour it’s possible to move from the sandy beaches of the Adriatic sea to the green mountains and clay hills.

Why should you buy a property in Molise?


Buy a house in Molise is an excellent investment: the region is in a perfect position (3 hours driving from Rome, 2 from Naples and the Amalfi Coast) and property prices are still low.

Just to give you an idea…

You can buy a stone town house for only 3.800Euros (approx $4.200 – £2693- http://bit.ly/1VpHZaZ) or small one-bed apartment for 6.500Euros ($7,188 – £4.607- http://bit.ly/1Ii8kE4) or a country house with land for 18.000Euros ($19.900 – £12.758- http://bit.ly/1OuLKaB ).

Of course all those properties need a complete restoration.

buy a property in Molise

Even if Molise is still uncontaminated by the global market, the “second houses” market is growing up and actually is very lively (despite the worldwide real estate crisis). Many foreign buyers and investors are buying in this lovely area for many reasons. I’ve written down the five top reasons why people should buy a property in Molise:

  • THE COST OF LIVING IS RELATIVELY LOW Molisan people live in small villages with a monthly wage of 800-900 euros;
  • HOSPITALITY Molisan people are very welcoming and happy to meet new people. You will feel part of a big family!
  • MOLISE IS AWAY FROM TOURISTS you won’t find a multi-races population, the few “foreign” families are well integrated with the local inhabitants
  • THE POSSIBILITY OF LIVING THE REAL ITALY WHERE PEOPLE STILL KEEP THE ORIGINAL TRADITIONS each place holds the authentic flavour of its history, people still celebrate ancient rites which have been repeated with every passing season, the ancient trades are handed down from father to son. In these villages there are craftsmen who have remained untouched by industrialization and are still producing uniquely and precious objects
  • BREATH-TAKING SCENERIES, QUIET AND PEACEFUL VILLAGES the region is characterised by different types of mountain ranges and with its great variety of climate, it lends itself to many different sports-trekking, horse-riding,cycling, canoeing, skiing and climbing.Living in this small slice of Italy can be easy and healthy.Molise could be a very safe place to buy your second home in Italy!

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