Category Archives: Cross River NY

Cross River New York Real Estate for Sale

Home prices increasing annually | Cross River Real Estate

Home prices continued their increasing trends continued to increase in July, but at a slower rate than before, according to the most recent report by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices released by S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic.

“The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index is within 0.6% of the record high set in July 2006,” said David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director and chairman of the Index Committee. “Seven of the 20 cities have already set new record highs.”

“The 10-year, 20-year, and National indices have been rising at about 5% per year over the last 24 months,” Blitzer said. “Eight of the cities are seeing prices up 6% or more in the last year. Given that the overall inflation is a bit below 2%, the pace is probably not sustainable over the long term.”

Annually, the National Home Price index showed a gain of 5.1% in July. This is up slightly from June’s 5% annual gain. The 10-City Composite increased by 4.2% annually and the 20-City Composite increased by 5%. Each of these is down from June’s 4.3% and 5.1% for the respective composites.

Click to Enlarge


(Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, CoreLogic)

“Both the housing sector and the economy continue to expand with home prices continuing to rise at about a 5% annual rate,” Blitzer said. “The statement issued last week by the Fed after its policy meeting confirms the central bank’s view that the economy will see further gains.”

While the Federal Open Market Committee did not raise rates at their last meeting, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve System chair of the Board of Governors, explained, “Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy.”

She explained the Fed preferred to take a more cautious approach to see if current growth would continue.

“Most analysts now expect the Fed to raise interest rates in December,” Blitzer said. “After such Fed action, mortgage rates would still be at historically low levels and would not be a major negative for house prices.”

Out of the 20 cities, Portland, Seattle and Denver reported the highest annual gains over the last six months. In July, Portland increased 12.4%, Seattle increased 11.2% and Denver increased 9.4%.

After seasonal price adjustment, the National Index increased by 0.4% monthly but the 10-City Composite decreased 0.1%. The 20-City Composite remained unchanged.


read more..

‘Zombie’ foreclosures decline across the country | Cross River Real Estate

As the foreclosure crisis recedes, some unwanted consequences continue to haunt neighborhoods around the country.

“Zombie” foreclosures — those properties that are currently in the foreclosure process but vacant — fell again in the third quarter, according to Attom Data Solutions. Zombies made up 4.7% of all foreclosures, down 9% from a year ago.

Among the top ten states for zombies, there have been some big declines: zombies are down 28% in Florida, 26% in California, and 14% in Illinois compared to a year ago. But they’re up 6% in New York and 3% in Massachusetts.

Still, as the housing market stays hot, lenders seem to be moving more quickly to take possession of properties where homeowners are having trouble. The number of vacant bank-owned properties jumped 67% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, to 46,604, Attom said.

The states with the biggest number of properties in foreclosure are also the states with the most zombies. They are mostly states that require foreclosures to go through a court process, including New York, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois, and Indiana.

Judicial foreclosures can be a blessing, because they provide protections to homeowners, and a curse, because they take so long to complete. The lengthy and complicated process increases the likelihood that a foreclosure will become a zombie — but the hot housing market increases incentives for struggling homeowners to fight to hold on to their properties.


read more…

Single-family home construction starts drop -6.8% | Cross River Real Estate

Single-family housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 722,000 in August, according to new residential construction data released by the Commerce Department Tuesday morning. August’s reading marks a significant -6.0% decrease from July’s upwardly-revised rate of 768,000. After three consecutive months of increases, August’s reading is disappointing. More significantly, August marks the first month in 2016 in which the pace of starts fell below the pace of starts seen a year earlier–compared to August 2015, one-unit starts are down -1.2%.

Single-family starts decreased significantly in the Northeast and South in August, dropping -13.8% and -13.1%, respectively, and bringing down total one-unit starts for the month. The Midwest (6.4%) and West (6.3%) posted gains month-over-month, and were the only regions to post an increase in pace year-over-year, with single family starts up 10.5% and 29.2%, respectively.

Total housing permits, the leading indicator for future starts, decreased -0.4% overall in August, due to a hefty -8.4% decrease in permits for multifamily construction with five units or more. Single-family permits increased 3.7% in August, indicating that the pace of starts will likely rebound in September. The Midwest and South posted the biggest gains in permits for one-unit structures, up 8.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

Total privately-owned housing completions dipped -3.4% month-over-month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,043,000. The decline is primarily due to a large decline in completions of multifamily structures of 5 units or more, which fell -11.0% from July, but one-unit completions also posted a marginal -0.3% decrease month-over-month to 752,000.



San Francisco’s housing bubble is collapsing | Cross River Real Estate

house, San Francisco, California Flickr / Håkan Dahlström

Here’s the other side of central-bank engineered asset price inflation, or “healing the housing market,” as it’s called in a more politically correct manner:

San Francisco Unified school district, which employs about 3,300 teachers, has been hobbled by a teacher shortage. Despite intense efforts this year – including a signing bonus – to bring in 619 new teachers to fill the gaps left behind by those who’d retired or resigned, the district is short 38 teachers as of Monday, when the school year started. Others school districts in the Bay Area have similar problems.

For teachers, the math doesn’t work out. Average teacher pay for the 2014-15 school year was $65,000. And less after taxes. But the median annual rent was $42,000 for something close to a one-bedroom apartment. After taxes and utilities, there’s hardly any money left for anything else.

A teacher who has lived in the same rent-controlled apartment for umpteen years may still be OK. But teachers who need to find a place, such as new teachers or those who’ve been subject of a no-fault eviction, are having trouble finding anything they can afford in the city. So they pack up and leave in the middle of the school year, leaving classes without teachers. It has gotten so bad that the Board of Supervisors decided in April to ban no-fault evictions of teachers during the school year.

Yet renting, as expensive as it is in San Francisco, is the cheaper option. Teachers trying to buy a home in San Francisco are in even more trouble at current prices. And it’s not just teachers!

This aspect of Ben Bernanke’s and now Janet Yellen’s asset price inflation – and consumer price inflation for those who have to pay for housing – is what everyone here calls “The Housing Crisis.”

As if to drive home the point, so to speak, the California Association of Realtors just released itsHousing Affordability Index (HAI) for the second quarter. It is based on the median house price (only houses, not condos), prevailing mortgage interest rate, household income, and a 20% down payment.

urban houses san franciscoShutterstock

In San Francisco, the median house price – half sell for more, half sell for less – is $1.37 million. According to Paragon Real Estate, if condos were included, the median price would drop to $1.2 million.

The median household income in San Francisco is $84,160, including households with more than one earner. So a household of two teachers with $130,000 in household income is doing pretty well, comparatively speaking.

The monthly mortgage payment for the median house in San Francisco, after a 20% down payment and at the prevailing rock-bottom mortgage rates, is $6,740 per month, or $80,900 per year!

So what kind of minimum qualifying household income would be required for the mortgage of a median house, plus taxes and insurance? For the US on average, $47,200 per year. In San Francisco, $269,600 per year. It would require a household of four teacher salaries!

Only the top-earning 13% of households in San Francisco can afford to buy that median house!

Other Bay Area counties have similar out-of-whack affordability rates: In San Mateo County (part of Silicon Valley), only 14% can buy that median home; in Marin County (north of the Golden Gate) 18%; Santa Clara Country (where San Jose is) 19%; Alameda County (where Oakland is) 20%. And so on.

And this despite the historically low mortgage rates. If prevailing mortgage rates rose to 6%, practically no one could afford to buy.

Then there’s the issue of down payment that the CAR so elegantly glosses over: the 20% down payment of for that median house in San Francisco is $275,000!

House in San FranciscoJustin Sullivan/Getty Images

How are people going to save $275,000 after taxes while living and renting in a city that is as pocket-cleaning expensive as San Francisco? Saving $275,000 on a median household income of $84,160 while paying $42,000 a year in rent, plus taxes, utilities, food, transportation, clothes, parking tickets…..

Saving anything is going to be tough. But even if that household, using herculean discipline, can save 5% of its income a year (so $4,200 a year), it would take 65 years to save that down payment. Oh well. There goes the dream.

These are a scary numbers for the housing market! If only 13% can buy that median home – when in a healthier housing market, over 50% should be able to buy a median home – who the heck is going to buy the rest of the homes?

This puts a stranglehold on demand. To sustain these crazy home prices, San Francisco needs to bring in an endless flow of highly paid people, including absentee foreign investors, to replace the teachers and other middle-class households, the artists and shop keepers and office workers, and to push out city employees, nurses, and the like. That’s how the process has worked.

But that endless influx of highly paid people and investors is grinding to a halt. Some companies are still hiring, but others are laying off, and highly paid workers are just switching jobs rather than pouring into the city in large numbers. That’s a sea change for this housing market.

It comes at a time when a historic building boom is throwing thousands of high-end condos and apartments on the market every year, for years to come.


read more…

Mortgage rates at 3.43% | Cross River Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates declining after nudging slightly higher for three consecutive weeks.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.43 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending August 4, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.48 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.91 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.74 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.78 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.13 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Treasury yields fell last week following both the FOMC’s meeting and a disappointing advance estimate for second quarter GDP. Mortgage rates, which had moved up 7 basis points over the past three weeks, responded by erasing most of those gains, falling 5 basis points to 3.43 percent this week for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Mortgage rates have been below 3.5 percent every week since June 30. Borrowers are taking advantage of these low rates by refinancing. The latest Weekly Applications Survey results from the Mortgage Bankers Association show refinance activity up 55 percent since last year.”

US homeownership rate matches a 51-year low | Cross River Real Estate

The proportion of U.S. households that own homes has matched its lowest level in 51 years — evidence that rising property prices, high rents and stagnant pay have made it hard for many to buy.

Just 62.9 percent of households owned a home in the April-June quarter this year, a decrease from 63.4 percent 12 months ago, the Census Bureau said Thursday. The share of homeowners now equals the rate in 1965, when the census began tracking the data.

The trend appears most pronounced among millennial households, ages 18 to 34, many of whom are straining under the weight of rising apartment rents and heavy student debt. Their homeownership rate fell 0.7 percentage point over the past year to 34.1 percent. That decline may reflect, in part, more young adults leaving their parents’ homes for rental apartments.

The overall decline appears to be due largely to the increased formation of rental households, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at the real estate site Trulia. McLaughlin cautioned, though, that the decrease in homeownership from a year ago was not statistically significant.

America added nearly a million households over the past year and all of them were renters. Home ownership has declined even as the housing market has been recovering from the 2007 bust that triggered the Great Recession. Ownership peaked at 69.2 percent at the end of 2004.

Home prices have been steadily outpacing gains in average earnings. This has made it harder for first-time buyers to save for down payments, thereby delaying their ability to purchase a home.

The median home sales price was $247,700 in June, up 4.8 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. That increase is roughly double the pace of average hourly wage gains.

read more…–finance.html

Mortgage rates average 3.42% | Cross River Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates holding steady with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remaining near its all-time record low of 3.31 percent in November of 2012.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.42 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending July 14, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 3.41 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.09 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.72 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.74 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.25 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.68 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.96.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“We describe the last few weeks as A Tale of Two Rates. Immediately following the Brexit vote, U.S. Treasury yields plummeted to all-time lows. This week, markets stabilized and the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply. In contrast, the 30-year mortgage rate declined after the Brexit vote, but only by half as much as the 10-year Treasury yield. This week, the 30-year fixed rate barely budged, rising just one basis point to 3.42 percent. This pattern suggests that mortgage rates are likely to remain low throughout the summer.”

U.S. existing home sales rise to more than nine-year high | Cross River Real Estate

U.S. home resales rose in May to a more than nine-year high as improving supply increased choices for buyers, suggesting the economy remains on solid footing despite a sharp slowdown in job growth last month.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.53 million units last month, the highest level since February 2007.

“The economy can’t be going too far off course when home buying is picking up,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

April’s sales pace was revised down to 5.43 million units from the previously reported 5.45 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales rising 1.1 percent to a 5.54 million-unit pace in May.

Sales were up 4.5 percent from a year ago.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the report as investors nervously awaited the outcome of Britain’s referendum on European Union membership on Thursday.

The housing index .HGX was up 0.13 percent. Shares in the nation’s largest home builder, D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N), were flat while Lennar Corp (LEN.N) rose 0.2 percent.

The strong home resales added to retail sales data in painting an upbeat picture of the economy. That should help allay the fears that were stoked by last month’s paltry job gains.

The higher existing home sales suggest an increase in brokers’ commissions, which should boost the residential investment portion of the gross domestic product report.

Housing is being driven by improving household formation as some young adults find employment and older Americans move into smaller and cheaper homes.


Existing home sales surged 4.1 percent in the Northeast and climbed 4.6 percent in the South. Sales in the West, which has seen a strong increase in house prices amid tight inventories, jumped 5.4 percent.

In the Midwest, sales tumbled 6.5 percent last month. The decline, however, followed recent hefty gains.

The number of unsold homes on the market in May rose 1.4 percent from April to 2.15 million units. Supply was, however, down 5.7 percent from a year ago.

In May, new listings typically stayed on the market for 32 days, the shortest period of time since the NAR started tracking the data. That was down from 39 days in April and 40 days a year ago.

At May’s sales pace, it would take 4.7 months to clear the stock of houses on the market, unchanged from April. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

Economists say builders will need to ramp up construction of new homes to meet the pent-up demand.

With inventory still tight, the median house price soared 4.7 percent from a year ago to a record $239,700 last month.


read more…

Housing Starts down year over year in April | Cross River Real Estate



WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for April 2016:


Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,116,000. This is 3.6 percent (±1.3%) above the revised March rate of 1,077,000, but is 5.3 percent (±1.3%) below the April 2015 estimate of Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 736,000; this is 1.5 percent (±0.8%) above the revised March figure of 725,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 348,000 in April.


Privately owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,172,000. This is 6.6 percent (±10.2%)* above the revised March estimate of 1,099,000, but is 1.7 percent (±10.1%)* below the April 2015 rate of 1,192,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 778,000; this is 3.3 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised March figure of 753,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 373,000.


Privately owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 933,000. This is 11.0 percent (±12.3%)* below the revised March estimate of 1,048,000 and is 7.4 percent (±10.6%)* below the April 2015 rate of 1,008,000. Single-family housing completions in April were at a rate of 691,000; this is 3.6 percent (±12.6%)* below the revised March rate of 717,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 232,000

read more…

US home prices steady | Cross River Real Estate

Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States is expected to be 182.37 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States to stand at 179.06 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is projected to trend around 159.65 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index



Forecast Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020 Unit
Case Shiller Home Price Index 183 182 182 180 179 160 Index Points
United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index – was last predicted on Tuesday, March 29, 2016.
read more….