Category Archives: Chappaqua

NAR says home sales to continue to increase next year | Chappaqua Real Estate

Predictions from the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association,Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac show that home sales are going to heat up in 2017, according to a blog by NAR.

NAR predicted existing home sales will reach 6 million in 2017, an increase from this year’s forecast of 5.8 million, according to the blog. MBA predicted home sales will reach 5.75 million and Fannie and Freddie forecast home sales will come in at 6.2 million.

From the blog:

A huge wave of Generation Yers, who have delayed home buying, are emerging into their key buying years. They are predicted to keep home sales and condo sales strong well into 2020, according to economists.

Meanwhile, new-home construction starts likely will tick up to about 1.5 million per year to 2024, predicts Forisk Research.

Home builders likely will continue to be more subdued, despite calls for more inventory.

As for the rest of this year, the summer housing market saw high demand next to rising home prices, but don’t expect Fall to bring any relief. In fact, it could bring the hottest fallin a decade, new data from realtor.com shows.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/38205-nar-forecasts-heated-housing-market-in-2017?eid=311691494&bid=1549805

Pending home sales grew by 1.5% | Chappaqua Real Estate

Pending home sales grew by 1.5% in the month of September according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The measure of the housing market was projected by economists to grow 1.0% in September from the month before.

In August, the pending sales of single family homes, condos, and co-ops fell 2.4%, declining by much more than the expected flat reading.

After the report for August, the NAR said the slowing number of homes under contract showed the “housing recovery could stall.”

 

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http://www.businessinsider.com/here-come-pending-home-sales-2016-10

Low Mortgage Rates Sustain Improving Housing Markets | Chappaqua Real Estate

Freddie Mac released its Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®), showing two additional metro areas — Indianapolis, Indiana, and Columbus, Ohio — entering their historic benchmark levels of housing activity.

The national MiMi value stands at 85.1, largely unchanged from last month, indicating a housing market that’s on the outer range of its historic benchmark level of housing activity with a +0.14 percent improvement from June to July and a three-month improvement of +1.24 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value improved +4.70 percent. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 43 percent, but remains significantly off its high of 121.7.

News Facts:

  • Thirty-eight of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values within range of their benchmark averages, with Utah (97.5), Hawaii (96.6), Montana (96.5), Colorado (96) and Oregon (95.8) ranking in the top five with scores closest to their historical benchmark index levels of 100.
  • Seventy-nine of the 100 metro areas have MiMi values within range, with Los Angeles, CA (99.5), Salt Lake City, UT (100.6), Provo, UT (98.9), Honolulu, HI (98.7) and Nashville, TN (101.6) ranking in the top five with scores closest to their historical benchmark index levels of 100.
  • The most improving states month over month were Illinois (+1.72%), Nevada (+1.36%), Florida (+1.20%), Alabama (+1.14%) and South Carolina (+1.00%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Florida (+10.03%), Oregon (+9.49%), Colorado (+9.09%), New Jersey (+8.64%) and Tennessee (+8.54%).
  • The most improving metro areas month over month were Lakeland, FL (+2.13%), Youngstown, OH (+1.92%), Chicago, IL (+1.73%), Orlando, FL (+1.63%) and Las Vegas, NV (+1.61%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving metro areas were Orlando, FL (+16.20%), Tampa, FL (+13.03%), Lakeland, FL (+13.02%), Chattanooga, TN (+12.89%) and Palm Bay, FL (+12.47).
  • In July, 32 of the 50 states and 75 of the top 100 metros were showing an improving three-month trend. The same time last year, all 50 states and the top 100 metro areas were showing an improving three-month trend.

Quote attributable to Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer:

“Nationally, MiMi in July was largely unchanged for the third consecutive month at 85.1, yet marking a 4.7 percent year-over-year increase. Despite rising house prices, the majority of housing markets have sustained their momentum due in large part to low mortgage rates. For example, purchase applications, as measured by MiMi, were up more than 17 percent year over year in July and remaining at their highest level since December 2007.”

The 2016 MiMi release calendar is available online.

MiMi monitors and measures the stability of the nation’s housing market, as well as the housing markets of all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the top 100 metro markets. MiMi combines proprietary Freddie Mac data with current local market data to assess where each single-family housing market is relative to its own long-term stable range by looking at home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios (changes in home purchasing power based on house prices, mortgage rates and household income), proportion of on-time mortgage payments in each market, and the local employment picture. The four indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market. Monthly, MiMi uses this data to show, at a glance, where each market stands relative to its own stable range of housing activity. MiMi also indicates how each market is trending, whether it is moving closer to, or further away from, its stable range. A market can fall outside its stable range by being too weak to generate enough demand for a well-balanced housing market or by overheating to an unsustainable level of activity.

Builder Confidence Surges in September | Chappaqua Real Estate

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in September jumped six points to 65 from a downwardly revised August reading of 59 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This marks the highest HMI level since October 2015.

With the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident of positive market conditions for new construction. Solid job creation and low interest rates are also fueling demand, while builders continue to be hampered by supply-side constraints that include shortages of labor and building lots.

hmi-sept

As household incomes rise, builders in many markets across the nation are reporting they are seeing more serious buyers, a positive sign that the housing market continues to move forward. The single-family market continues to make gradual gains and we expect this upward momentum will build throughout the remainder of the year and into 2017.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/09/builder-confidence-surges-in-september/

Clintons buy adjacent Chappaqua property | Chappaqua Real Estate

While on the campaign trail in hopes of re-occupying the White House come January, Hillary and Bill Clinton have more than doubled the size of their Chappaqua sprawl with the recent $1.16 million purchase of a home adjacent to their current 15 Old House Lane compound.

The 1.51-acre, three-bedroom, four-bath, ranch-style property at 33 Old House Lane shares the end of a cul-de-sac with the couple’s original 1.1-acre spread, which they acquired for $1.7 million back in 1999 (and which recently housed the Democratic presidential nominee during her much-discussed bought with pneumonia).

Coincidentally or not, the New Castle Town Board has since designated the stretch of road leading up to said cul-de-sac a local-traffic-only street, according to Statesman Journal. Shortly after, the Clintons’ secret service reportedly barricaded the street and began screening cars, though town administrator Jill Shapiro stated that the police chief had received a request for security reasons.

The Douglas Elliman listing (which is, naturally, now closed) boasted of the address’s “open floor plan, pecan wood floors throughout, [and] modern chef’s kitchen,” which “opens to an eating area with fireplace and the family room all with built-in cabinetry.”

 

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http://www.westchestermagazine.com/Clintons-Buy-Second-Westchester-Home/

Mortgage rates average 3.50% | Chappaqua Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to its highest level since June.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.50 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending September 15, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 3.44 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.91 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.77 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.11 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.81 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.92 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 10-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points to 1.73 percent, its highest level since Brexit. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage followed suit, rising 6 basis points to 3.50 percent this week. This is the first week since June that mortgage rates were above 3.48 percent, snapping an 11-week trend.”

Home prices continue to rise | #Chappaqua Real Estate

Home prices continue to rise from last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic, Case-Shiller Indices.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global, which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies and governments.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an annual increase of 5.1% in June, unchanged from the month before. The 10-City Composite increased 4.3%, slightly less that May’s 4.4% increase. Similarly, the 20-City Composite increased 5.1% annually, down from May’s increase of 5.3%.

Click to Enlarge

case-shiller

(Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic)

Of those 20 cities, Portland, Seattle and Denver posted the highest annually gains over each of the last five months. In June, Portland increased the most at 12.6%, followed by Seattle at 11% and Denver at 9.2%. Overall, six cities reporter a higher price increase in June than in May.

“Home prices continued to rise across the country led by the west and the south,” says David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Committee managing director and chairman. “In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10%; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation.”

“Nationally, home prices have risen at a consistent 4.8% annual pace over the last two years without showing any signs of slowing,” Blitzer said.

Click to Enlarge

case-shiller

(Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic)

After seasonal adjustment, the National Index increased 0.2% monthly in June. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite increased 0.1% monthly.

On the other hand, after seasonal adjustment, nine cities saw a decrease in home prices.

“Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape,” Blitzer said. “Sales of existing homes are at running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market.”

“Sales of new single family homes were at a 654,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, the highest rate since November 2007,” he said. “Housing starts in July topped an annual rate of 1.2 million units.”

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37901-case-shiller-home-prices-continue-upward-trend?eid=311691494&bid=1513118

Homebuilders gaining confidence | Chappaqua Real Estate

Homebuilder confidence increased in August as new construction and new home sales increase, according to the Housing Market Index by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

Builder confidence in the market of newly constructed single-family homes in August rose two points to 60, up from July’s downwardly revised reading of 58, according to the index.

“New construction and new home sales are on the rise in most areas of the country, and this is helping to boost builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a homebuilder and developer from Bloomington, Ill.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI categorizes builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor.

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as high to very high, average or low to very low. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

“Builder confidence remains solid in the aftermath of weak GDP reports that were offset by positive job growth in July,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.  “Historically low mortgage rates, increased household formations and a firming labor market will help keep housing on an upward path during the rest of the year.”

In the second quarter of 2016, real gross domestic product, the value of everything a nation produces, grew at a rate of only 1.2% from last year, according to the estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

On the other hand, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 255,000 in July, far above what experts predicted.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37782-homebuilders-gaining-confidence-as-new-home-sales-increase?eid=311691494&bid=1498035

US Homebuilder Sentiment Slips in July | Chappaqua Real Estate

 

U.S. home builders are feeling slightly less optimistic about their sales prospects this month, though their outlook for the new-home market remains positive overall.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday fell one point to 59.

Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as good, rather than poor. The index had mostly held at 58 this year before rising to 60 last month.

Builders’ view of current sales and traffic by prospective buyers slipped one point this month. Their outlook for sales over the next six months slid three points.

The latest survey of builders follows a recent pullback in sales of new U.S. homes.

Sales declined 6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 551,000 homes. Overall, though, sales are running ahead of last year’s pace through the first five months of this year, aided by job growth and ultra-low mortgage rates.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up 3.42 percent last week, staying close to its all-time low of 3.31 percent in November 2012. A year ago, the average rate was 4.09 percent.

While new-home sales have rebounded from the depths of the housing bust, the current rate of new home sales lags behind the historical annual average of roughly 650,000 homes. New home sales figures for June are due out next week.

Many builders also continue to grapple with a stubborn dearth of skilled workers and available land parcels cleared for new construction.

Still, the NAHB expects that new-home sales will continue to grow, albeit slowly.

“Job creation is solid, mortgage rates are at historic lows and household formations are rising,” said Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist. “These factors should help to bring more buyers into the market as the year progresses.”

This month’s builder index was based on 304 respondents.

A measure of current sales conditions for single-family homes slipped one point to 63, while a gauge of traffic by prospective buyers fell one point to 45. Builders’ view of sales over the next six months slid three points to 66.

 

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http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-homebuilder-sentiment-slips-july-40664158

How Have Rents Changed Since 1960? | Chappaqua Real Estate

With rents rising in cities and states across the US, many renters struggle with affordability. In Miami, Los Angeles, and Orlando, for example, more than 55% of renters were cost-burdened in 2014, spending more than 30% of their income on rent. Rents have moderated recently in expensive metros like San Francisco and New York, but continue to climb rapidly in Dallas, Seattle, and Denver.

To better understand how rents and affordability have changed over time, Apartment List analyzed Census data from 1960 – 2014. We find that inflation-adjusted rents have risen by 64%, but real household incomes only increased by 18%. The situation was particularly challenging from 2000 – 2010: household incomes actually fell by 9%, while rents rose by 18%. As a result, the share of cost-burdened renters nationwide more than doubled, from 24% in 1960 to 49% in 2014.

These trends are repeated in cities and states across the country. Since 1980, incomes in expensive areas like DC, Boston, and SF have risen rapidly, but rents have increased roughly twice as fast. In Houston, Detroit, and Indianapolis, incomes have actually fallen in real terms, while rents have risen by ~15-25%. The only urban areas where incomes kept pace with rising rents were Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.

Inflation-adjusted rents have increased by ~64% since 1960

First, we took a look at median rents in the United States, from 1960 to 2014. All data was adjusted for inflation, allowing us to compare rents across decades. Median rents have increased steadily during that time period, from $568 in 1960 to $934 in 2014 – an increase of 63%. Rents rose the fastest during the 1960s (18% increase), followed by the 1980s (16%). In contrast, the 1970s and 1990s saw relatively small rent increases, at 4% and 2% respectively.

Rents increased by 12% from 2000-2010, but median income fell by 7%

Next, we compared the change in rents with household income, over the same period. Both sets of data were adjusted to 2014 dollars, and indexed to 1960. Looking at the results, the 1990s were the best decade for renters, as rents barely budged (+2% over the course of the decade), whereas incomes increased by nearly 10% – a 7% difference overall, and the only decade in which rents increased less than incomes. Renters did relatively well in the 1970s as well, with both rents and incomes showing small increases.

The decade from 2000-2010, however, was the worst for renters. They were hit by rising rents (+12%) and declining incomes (-7%), making them significantly worse off overall. That decade was also the only decade in which real household incomes fell. Things have improved a bit since, as rents and incomes flattened from 2010-2014, but it’s not surprising that many Americans say that they are worse off now than eight years ago.

The share of cost-burdened renters has risen from 24% to 49%

What has the combination of rising rents and stagnant incomes done to renters? To answer the question, we used JCHS tabulations of cost-burden rates (the share of renters spending more than 30% of income on rent). Unsurprisingly, the share of cost-burdened renters increased from 1960 – 2014, but the magnitude of the increase is dramatic. 24% of renters were cost-burdened in 1960, but that number jumped to more than 50% in 2010, before declining slightly in the years following. Mirroring the data on rents and income, the share of cost-burdened renters actually declined slightly in the 1990s, but spiked from 2001-2005, and again from 2007-2011. The US renter population is larger than it has ever been (43 million households, or 37% of the total population), and nearly half of them are struggling to pay rent.

Renters in lower income quintiles hit especially hard by rising rents and declining incomes

Next, we looked at cost-burden rates by household income quintile. Renters with incomes in the lowest 20% have had cost-burden rates greater than 70% since the 1970s, and affordability has continued to decline in recent years. Among renters in the lower middle bracket (making up to $41,186 a year), however, the increase in cost-burden rates has been significant, with an increase of 22% since the year 2000. Renters in other income brackets have fared better, but cost-burden rates have risen across the board.

Rents have risen faster than incomes in nearly every urban area

We know that rents have increased faster than incomes nationwide, but how do the results vary across cities? To answer this question, we took Census data from 1980 – 2014, and compared median renter incomes and rents in different urban areas across the US. As before, data was adjusted for inflation. In nearly every urban area we examined, rents increased significantly more than incomes, with results clustering into five groups:

  1. Expensive coastal cities saw significant increases in incomes, but not enough to keep pace with rising rents. Washington, DC, for example, had a 33% increase in real incomes, but rents rose by 86%. Similar results were seen in San Francisco, New York City, and Boston. Renters in Los Angeles struggled the most, as rents jumped 55%, even as incomes only increased 13%.
  2. Renters in the Midwest and South had stagnant or declining incomes, even as rents increased. Incomes in Dallas, Nashville, and Chicago barely budged, even as rents rose by 25% or more. In Houston, Detroit, and Indianapolis, incomes actually fell by ~10-15%, even as housing costs continued to climb.
  3. Other cities saw incomes increase, but not fast enough to keep up with rents. This was the biggest group, comprising a varied list of cities, from Seattle and Portland on the West Coast; to Orlando, Atlanta, and Miami on the Southeast; and Denver and Salt Lake City on the interior. In some ways, this group mirrors what has happened in the US as a whole: incomes have increased by 15-25% since 1980, but rents have grown twice as fast.
  4. Cities with room to grow – Las Vegas and Phoenix – had relatively small rent increases, allowing incomes to keep up. Both cities added large amounts of housing inventory in the 1990s and 2000s, which helped keep a lid on rents. Incomes in these urban areas did not increase any faster than most other cities, but small rent increases mean that renters are not much worse off than before.
  5. Only one city had high income growth that matched rent increases – Austin, TX. Rents in Austin rose rapidly from 1980 – 2014, but incomes grew even faster. Austin’s population has more than doubled since 1980, causing rents to increase by more than 40%, but real incomes increased even faster. Strong employment growth in Austin has attracted many millennials, but wage growth means that Austin is the only urban area where incomes have risen more than rents.

The rent is (still) too damn high

Rents have risen rapidly in many cities across the US, but looking at things over more than fifty years helps us understand the impact of these trends. If rents had only risen at the rate of inflation, the average renter would be paying $366 less in rent each month, which would allow many to more than double their down payment savings.When coupled with stagnant incomes and soaring student debt, it is no wonder that renters across the country are struggling with affordability. Nearly half of them are cost-burdened, compared with less than a quarter in 1960.

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https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/rent-growth-since-1960