Category Archives: blog

NAHB Hombuilder Index Falls | Lewisboro Real Estate

United States Nahb Housing Market Index  Forecast 2016-2020

Nahb Housing Market Index in the United States is expected to be 70.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Nahb Housing Market Index in the United States to stand at 60.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Nahb Housing Market Index is projected to trend around 53.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

 

United States Nahb Housing Market Index

 

Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Nahb Housing Market Index 67 70 62 56 60 53

 

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www.tradingeconomics.com

Teatown donation | Chappaqua Real Estate

OSI Donates 40 Acres to Teatown

On April 27, the Open Space Institute donated 40 acres, known as the “Overlook Parcel” to Teatown. Under a conservation easement held by Westchester Land Trust, it is now permanently protected.

We made it official this past Thursday with a ribbon-cutting, attended by Teatown board members, Merrilee Ingui of Open Space Institute, and Lori Ensigner of Westchester Land Trust.

You may already be familiar with this parcel, which is home to one of our popular trails: the Overlook Trail. Teatown has been managing this land for twenty years, making it an instrumental piece of our preserve.

Camp

 

Teatown Natural Science Day Camp
Our camp’s mission is to provide a safe, non-competitive summer haven where kids can be kids, learn by exploring, discover new things about themselves, each other and the earth, and develop friendships and respect for all living things. Click here to learn more.
Experience Wildflower Island

 

June 3
11am-1pm, FREE (ages 10+, no dogs)

Stroll the winding paths and enjoy the beauty of Teatown from a different perspective! Guides will be stationed in the Gatehouse to answer questions.

Teatown Dog Park

 

Teatown is evaluating the possibility of creating a members-only dog park. We’re interested in your feedback!
In the Gallery
May & June

 

Photography literally means “writing with light”. In May and June, H. David Stein presents his photographs in “Flowers in a Different Light” at Teatown’s Nature Center. Through innovative use of different types of light directed from different directions, his flowers appear to glow from within.
Teatown Request for Proposals for Master Planning Project
Opened on May 19. Bids due on June 12.
 
Upcoming Programs
Online registration is here!
Please register by visiting teatown.eventbrite.com or by calling (914) 762-2912, ext.110.
Advanced registration is required for all programs. $7 per person or free for members, unless otherwise noted.
PESTICIDES ALL AROUND US: SOLUTIONS TO THIS POLLUTION
June 2, Friday, 8:30am-10:30am FREE
Join Conservation Café—a consortium of seven Westchester County-based partners—for a discussion on pesticides. Learn about the current status of pesticide use regionally and statewide, the impact of pesticides, and community-based efforts to reduce the use of pesticides. For adults. Taking place at Pace University, Kessel Student Center, Gottesman Room.
HIKE TO TEATOWN HILL
June 4, Sunday, 10am-12pm
Teatown’s new Hilltop Trail climbs the highest point at Teatown for a great view of the Hudson Highlands. We’ll be on the lookout for hawks, and warblers, snakes and butterflies. For everyone.
POLLINATION STATION
June 10, Saturday, 11am-12pm

Flowers are pollination stations! Just how does pollen get to where it has to go? What role do animals play in pollination? By dissecting a flower we’ll see what the buzz is about, and learn why protecting our native pollinators is vital. For families.

BREEDING BIRDS AT FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK
June 12, Monday, 7am FREE

Fahnestock’s higher elevation and forested paths offer many opportunities to spot a variety of warblers, vireos, hawks and other birds. For Adults. Meet at the Pelton Pond Parking area on Rte. 301.

INVASIVE FOREST PEST WORKSHOP
June 14, Wednesday, 10am-3pm
Learn how to identify new forest pests invading our region, long-term mitigation and management strategies for Hemlock Woolly Adelgid or Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), and how to become involved in efforts to monitor pests, block pathways of introduction or locate EAB-resistant ash. For adults.
Unless otherwise noted, all programs meet in the Nature Center. Some programs fill up, so please register early.
Your support matters
Your donation can make an immediate impact and help support our environmental education programs and the stewardship of our 1,000 acre
preserve.

Douglas Elliman Launches New Brand Campaign – It’s Time for Elliman | Bedford Hills Real Estate

America’s 4th Largest Brokerage to Unveil New Tagline, New Mobile App, A Re imagined Magazine + Expanded Art Partnerships

 

Douglas Elliman Real Estate, the #1 real estate brokerage in NYC and #4 nationwide, will launch its new brand campaign, It’s Time for Elliman – one that integrates media across all platforms, including newspapers, magazines, billboards, social, indoor and outdoor advertising and, for the first time for the brokerage, television.  The new messaging will debut across television, print and digital media in all of the markets the company serves, including Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Long Island, The Hamptons and North Fork, Westchester and Putnam Counties, Connecticut, New Jersey, South Florida, Los Angeles, California and Aspen, Colorado.

“With our firm’s expansion efforts well underway across the country, we felt it was time to engage the public in new and exciting ways that drive home the key message that no matter the stage of life of homebuyers and sellers, It’s Time for Elliman, said Dana DeVito, Senior Vice President of Marketing for the nationally recognized firm.

The entire campaign underscores the important emotional and financial decisions involved in almost every real estate transaction. The ads, designed to celebrate diversity in America, underscore how the company’s over 6,000 highly-trained sales agents in 85 offices coast to coast help navigate clients through challenging markets, as well as important life milestones that call for a starter-apartment or a new primary or second residence; or the inevitable time in life when one decides to let go of their longtime, beloved home.

“By stating that ‘It’s Time for Elliman,’ we are reaching both existing and future clients with themes that duplicate the very human experiences and emotions we all share when buying or selling a home,” said Dottie Herman, the firm’s President and CEO.  “Our message will resonate across all of our markets.”

Produced in partnership with award-winning Agency Sacks, highlights of the diverse nationwide campaign include giant billboards strategically located on the Long Island Expressway’s east and westbound approach to and from the Midtown Tunnel, as well on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles, one of the most highly trafficked roadways in California. In addition, Douglas Elliman has struck a partnership with the iconic bus service, the Hampton Jitney, which will wrap buses with creative from the new campaign and the Douglas Elliman logo, which has also been redesigned. The company will be well-positioned at private and executive airports in Aspen and Los Angeles where many high net worth clients tend to travel. Douglas Elliman’s brand campaign will also extend to New York City’s highly visible buses and taxi tops.

“In all, we anticipate hitting close to three quarters of a billion potential customers nationwide with It’s Time for Elliman, said Scott Durkin, COO of Douglas Elliman. “Our company will also unveil a new app and revamp its magazine, Elliman, which will appear for the Memorial Day weekend, with its primary emphasis on real estate.”  In September, the magazine will sport a new look.  Elliman will publish four times a year; two issues will be dedicated to re-sale and two issues to new development.

The firm has forged a new strategic partnership with Frieze New York, the art fair that has brought together the world’s leading modern and contemporary art galleries during the month of May 2017 and also has a longstanding relationship with Art Basel Miami and Design Miami which will continue once again in December 2017.

“Art and design are passion points for our company,” added DeVito. “The connection between art, design and real estate is undeniable, as our clients and our agents make a correlation between beauty and design found both inside and outside of the home.”

“Our efforts to increase brand awareness through this new campaign, along with forward–thinking approaches to expanding markets, technology and the visual arts, further propel us to the top of the real estate industry,” stated Durkin.

About Douglas Elliman Real Estate
Established in 1911, Douglas Elliman Real Estate is the largest brokerage in the New York Metropolitan area and the fourth largest residential real estate company nationwide. With more than 6,000 agents, the company operates over 85 offices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, New Jersey, Long Island, the Hamptons & North Fork, Westchester, Greenwich, South Florida, Colorado and Beverly Hills. Moreover, Douglas Elliman has a strategic global alliance with London-based Knight Frank Residential for business in the worldwide luxury markets spanning 59 countries and six continents. The company also controls a portfolio of real estate services including Douglas Elliman Development Marketing; Manhattan’s largest residential property manager, Douglas Elliman Property Management with over 250 buildings; and DE Commercial. For more information on Douglas Elliman as well as expert commentary on emerging trends in the real estate industry, please visit www.elliman.com.

 

SOURCE Douglas Elliman

Real state of housing market | Waccabuc Real Estate

On the third day of Mortgage Bankers Association National Secondary Market Conference and Expo in New York City, three economists took the stage to explain their view of the housing market, and their forecast for 2017.

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan and MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni gave their projections over the chance of a recession within the next 12 months.

Becketti emphasized that while the chance of a recession increased, it would need to be driven by a specific event.

“Recessions are event driven, the economy doesn’t just run out of gas and slow down,” Becketti said.

Fratantoni predicted a 15% to 20% chance of a recession over the next 12 months, while Duncan pushed it to a 30% chance. He listed several factors including a peak in consumer credit card usage, auto sales and corporate debt, which could point to a looming recession.

The three economists pointed out that while employment is rising, there are still gaps in the growth.

What we’ve seen has been a polarization of jobs, Becketti said. Jobs have left the mid-skill level and gone to the high-skill level, and low skill jobs have also seen growth. The reason for this shift is that mid-skilled jobs are easier to automate.

But even as jobs polarize, the growth between urban and suburban areas leveled out, becoming more equally distributed between the two areas, Duncan said. However, this leveling out in the location of jobs is creating more problems in the housing market.

“But now urban areas are the most difficult area to build entry-level housing due to cost of land,” he said.

As the year goes on, Fratantoni predicted the market will see two more rate hikes – one in June and one in September, saying the year would finish with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate of 4.5%.

Becketti predicted slightly more, saying the Federal Open Markets Committee could raise rates from two to three times this year, but said the year will end with a 30-year FRM of about 4.4%.

Duncan, who predicted the highest chance of a recession in the next 12 months, agreed the Fed will raise rates twice more this year, however kept it’s rate for the end of 2017 more conservative at 4.2%.

“We’re not convinced that inflationary pressures are enough to make the Fed more aggressive,” he said.

Click to Enlarge

Economic Outlook

(Source: Freddie Mac)

But for now, the housing market continues to boom as home prices hit their previous peak nationally, and even significantly surpassed it in some states.

This map shows the states in relation to their former peak:

Click to Enlarge

Economic Outlook

(Source: MBA)

All three economists were puzzled by the substantial increase in Texas, saying they could only venture to guess that while there is plenty of land to spread out in the state, the jobs are more centered, driving home prices up in key areas, such as Dallas.

And what about the rumored housing bubble? Fratantoni asked: Is San Francisco in a housing bubble? Becketti’s answer, to put it simply, was no. He answered that the city is subject to a tech collapse, but said it will not collapse on account of affordability.

 

read more….

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/40020-heres-the-real-state-of-the-housing-market?eid=311691494&bid=1743085

Builder Confidence Holds Firm | Bedford Real Estate

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained on firm ground in January, down two points to a level of 67 from a downwardly revised December reading of 69 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

The solid reading is consistent with building expectations heading into the new year. NAHB expects 10 percent growth in single-family construction in 2017, adding to the gains of 2016. However, ongoing industry concerns include rising mortgage interest rates as well as a lack of lots and access to labor.

The HMI rose sharply in December as the election results raised hopes among builders that a new Congress and administration will help create a better business climate for small businesses, particularly with respect to improving regulatory costs, which increased more than 29% over the last five years.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components retreated in January. The component gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 72, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months registered a two-point decline to 76 and the component measuring buyer traffic edged one-point lower to 51.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 52 and the Midwest posted a three-point gain to 64. The South and West each held steady at 67 and 79, respectively.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/01/builder-confidence-holds-firm-in-january-2/

Share of Past Due Mortgages Drop Significantly | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Information released by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) indicates that the share of all 1-4 family mortgage loans past due has returned to a level of normality. According to the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey, the share of all 1-4 family mortgages considered past due fell by 14 basis points to 4.52 percent. One year ago 4.99 percent of loans were considered past due.

The current share of loans past due has fallen significantly from its recession-related peak of 10.1 percent in 2010. Moreover, the current share of past due mortgages is below the average percentage between 1980, the beginning of the series, and 2006, 4.8 percent. Additionally, the average between 1987 and 2006 was 4.6 percent.

presentation1

Deeper analysis finds that the underlying composition of mortgages past due has improved, but has not fully recovered. Mortgages considered past due include those that are 30-59 days past due, 60-89 days late, and 90 or more days delinquent. It excludes mortgages that have entered foreclosure.

The figure below presents the distribution of mortgages past due by the 3 categories of lateness. Currently, about half of past due mortgages, 52 percent, are 30-59 days past due, 17 percent are 60-89 days past due, while 31 percent are 90 or more days delinquent. The present composition is better than the distribution at the peak in 2010, when mortgages 90 or more days past due accounted for half, 50 percent, of all past due mortgages.

However, the composition of past due mortgages on average between 1980 and 2006 was even more concentrated in the 30-59 day late category. On average, over the 1980-2006 period, mortgages 30-59 days past due accounted 67 percent of all past due mortgages while mortgages 90 or more days past due represented 16 percent. Also at 16 percent, the share of mortgages 60-89 days past due between 1980 and 2006 is similar to its current percentage of 17 percent.

presentation2

 

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/11/share-of-past-due-mortgages-reaches-post-recession-low/

Home buyer sentiment index weakens | Mt Kisco Real Estate

A home-buying sentiment index from Fannie Mae weakened for the third straight month in October, a sign the market’s momentum may be faltering.

Fannie’s home purchase sentiment index fell 1.1 percentage points to 81.7. After climbing as high as 86.5 in July, the index has fallen every month since then. It’s now 1.5 percentage points below its level from a year ago.

“Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate,” said Fannie chief economist Doug Duncan in a statement. “Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013.”

The index includes six components from a monthly survey the mortgage buyer FNMA, +0.80%   conducts of 1,000 Americans on owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence.

Slightly more respondents said mortgage rates would rise in the next 12 months – 50% versus 49% in September. While most economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December meeting, it’s not clear how much of an impact that will have on mortgage rates, which remain near all-time lows.

And while the share of respondents expecting home prices to increase fell to 41% in October from 43%, prices seem to be defying gravity.

Respondents in Fannie’s survey expect home purchase prices to appreciate 1.9% over the next 12 months. Data provider CoreLogic forecasts home prices will rise 5.2% over the next 12 years, and many analysts and industry participants believe prices are increasing too quickly for most would-be buyers to keep up.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-market-becoming-more-pessimistic-fannie-mae-survey-finds-2016-11-07?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Composition of New Home Sales Financing Shifts in Third Quarter | Bedford Hills Real Estate

NAHB analysis of the most recent Census estimates concerning sources of financing for new home salesreveals that the composition of mortgages by financing method shifted over the third quarter of 2016. The share of new home sales financed with conventional loans expanded at the expense of FHA-insured and VA-backed mortgages. The shift to conventional mortgages indicates continued return to health in the mortgage market.

presentation8

The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing reports that the conventional share fell to 57% in the third quarter of 2010. Since then, the conventional share has trended upward, reaching 74% in the third quarter of 2016, 6 percentage points above its level in the previous quarter, 68%. However, as Figure 1 illustrates, in quarters prior to the most recent one, the conventional share remained relatively steady.

The expanded conventional share of new home sales over the third quarter of 2016 was partially offset by a decline in the percentage of sales financed with FHA-insured mortgages. After rising from 10% in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 17% in the second quarter of 2016, largely reflecting a decline in the annual MIP, the share held steady at or near this level until second quarter of 2016 before falling 3 percentage points to 14% in the third quarter.

In addition, the share of new home sales backed by VA mortgages fell to 7% over the third quarter after holding steady at or near 9% since the fourth quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, the share of homes financed with all cash was unchanged over the third quarter at 5% near its average level in 2002, 4%. However, while cash sales account for 5% of total new home sales, new construction accounts for 15% of all-cash sales.

The future evolution of the financing composition remains is worth tracking. On the one hand, the compositional shift recorded over the third quarter of 2016 may point to return to the mix of financing seen in the years just prior to the most recent recession. On the other hand, the shift in composition may be a temporary occurrence and components may return to the steady proportions that steadily prevailed over 2015 and the first half of 2016.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/composition-of-new-home-sales-financing-shifts-in-third-quarter/

Schiller: Always reason to worry about housing prices | Waccabuc Real Estate

US home price gains slowed slighting in July, as many on Wall Street are speculating that the Federal Reserve will raise rates before the end of the year. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.0% year-over-year, missing analysts’ expectations of a 5.1% increase but still above the 4.8% pace of the prior two years.

The recent surge in real estate demand has pushed home prices near their pre-crisis peak in 2006, which is making it increasingly difficult for new home buyers to enter the market. Home sales fell 0.9% in August from the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the second straight month of declines.

Higher home prices have begged the question by many as to whether the current pace is sustainable, or if there’s reason to fear another massive collapse in real estate.

“There’s always reason to worry [about a coming collapse],” Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize–winning economist and co-creator of the S&P/Case Shiller Index, told Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith in the video above. But he is quick to point out one stark difference between today’s housing market and that of 2006. “We’re in a holding pattern right now … People are less excited about buying because they themselves don’t believe [home prices] will be going up a lot. Back in 2006, when the homeownership rate was setting records, people had extravagant expectations.”

His comments on Americans’ hesitation to buy echo the findings of a recent study byPulsenomics, which found that just 38% of renters surveyed think now is a good time to buy. Today, home values have reached or surpassed peak levels in about a quarter of US markets.

How rising rates could impact the housing market

While prospective buyers continue to benefit from relatively low borrowing costs, the big question is whether a series of rate hikes will increase mortgage rates and prompt a fallout in the housing sector. Fed funds futures suggests a roughly 57% chance of higher US interest rates by December, according to data from CME Group.

Shiller says it’s very difficult to forecast how the housing market will react to rising rates but is quick to point out that even in an uncertain environment, rate hikes shouldn’t be a factor for potential buyers.

“The Fed raised [rates] in December just a quarter of one percent, and plausibly they’ll raise [rates] by another quarter or a half percent, and it may not be a big deal,” said Shiller. “On the other hand, it might be a big deal because we’re in this strange period of near zero interest rates, and if people see it as a major turning point, it could affect home prices … My opinion is if you want a house, go out and buy it. It’s not an extremely unusual time. There are always risks.

read more…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-theres-always-reason-to-worry-about-a-coming-collapse-in-housing-124331739.html

McMansion home construction rises | North Salem Real Estate

chart1finalNew homes with 5,000 square feet or more of living space increased both as a share of all new construction and in absolute number in 2015, according to the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction. In 2015, the share of new homes this size reached a post-recession peak of 3.9% of new homes started. The total number of 5,000+ square-foot homes started that year was 28,000 units.

chart2finalIn 2012, the number of new homes started with 5,000+ square feet rose to 15,000 units, yet their share remained at only 2.8%. In 2015, while the number of 5,000+ square feet homes started (28,000) was the highest since 2008, their share of the new market (3.9%) was the highest since 2004. A previous postdiscussed the declining trend in the median and average size of new single-family homes due to an expansion in entry-level market wherein home size is expected to trend lower. This is not necessarily a contradiction, because 5,000+ square foot homes are relatively uncommon and represent the extreme upper tail of the distribution. The extreme upper tail can behave differently than the center of the distribution, measured by the average or median.

In the boom year of 2006, 3.0% or 45,000 new homes started were 5,000 square feet or larger. In 2007, the share of new homes this size was 3.6%, yet the total number of 5,000+ square-foot homes started that year fell to 37,000. In 2008, only 20,000 such homes were started or 3.2% of the total. From 2009 to 2011, fewer than 13,000 of these large homes were started every year, accounting for less than 3% of all new construction during this period. The extent to which the 5,000+ square foot homes have recovered, roughly to where they were in 2008, shows a growing trend at the top of the market at least through 2015.