Watch out for that light at the end of the tunnel | Cross River Real Estate

Perhaps the U.S. and global economies are turning the long-expected corner, but that turn is still in forecasts, not current data.

The gold market suddenly believes the greatest economic danger is past, crashing 30 bucks today. Yet, the NFIB survey of small business is stumbling along in recession.

The 10-year T-note continued to creep its way upward, at 2.03 percent this week, the highest in 10 months. Hardly a rocket ride, but disquieting.

Two other explanations for market movements: (1) what we have here is just another false-recovery party or (2) — queasiest of all — the Fed is losing its ability to hold down long-term rates.

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