We’re tracking three sources of “odds” on the US Presidential election:
- Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast
- Intrade’s prediction market
- Betfair’s prediction market
President Obama’s odds of winning the election have surged to new highs on the latter two over the past week and moved back toward recent highs on the third.
And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have continued to trend higher and are now around 80%: