Monthly Archives: June 2018

Seattle hits 20 months as the nation’s hottest housing market | Armonk Real Estate

Seattle retained its long-running title of the hottest housing market in the country, according to the Case-Shiller national home price report, but there are signs of hope for would-be buyers frustrated by the slim supply in recent years.

Seattle home prices in April rose 13.1 percent over the same period a year ago. Las Vegas and San Francisco held on to their spots just behind Seattle with annual price growth of 12.7 percent and 10.9 percent respectively.

Seattle has been atop Case Shiller’s index for 20 straight months now, and a combination of a historic population boom and record-low supply of homes for sale has been the primary driver of the city’s skyrocketing prices.

Seattle’s streak is among the longest on record for Case-Shiller’s index. San Francisco had a 20-month run as the fastest growing market between 1999 and 2001, at the heart of the dotcom boom. Portland topped Case-Shiller’s index for 23 straight months from 1990 to 1992.

But another report released earlier this month indicates that supply-starved Seattle is starting to see a rise in the number of home for sale. According to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, brokers added 14,524 new listings in Seattle and the surrounding area in May, the first time that figure topped 14,000 since May 2008. It’s also the first time in close to four years that the market has shown an annual increase in the number of new listings.

Seattle’s median home sale price in May was $830,000, up more than $100,000 from a year ago.

Also on the rise are condo listings, an important trend because condos tend to be less expensive and represent an opportunity for first-time buyers. Condo inventory grew by 21.4 percent over last year, boosted by the addition of 1,803 new listings in May.

While increased supply isn’t a cure-all for bringing prices down, it can slow growth. Take Seattle’s apartment market where thousands of new units opened in recent years, and many are now sitting empty. This has caused landlords to offer incentives to renters like free rent and other perks.

 

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https://www.geekwire.com/2018/seattle-hits-20-months-nations-hottest-housing-market-relief-buyers-may-horizon/

Builder Confidence Slips Two Points as Lumber Prices Soar | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell two points to 68 in June on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The decline was due in large part to sharply elevated lumber prices, although sentiment remains on solid footing.

Improved economic growth, continued job creation and solid housing demand should spur additional single-family construction in the months ahead. However, builders do need access to lumber and other construction materials at reasonable costs in order to provide homes at competitive price points, particularly for the entry-level market where inventory is most needed.

Builders are optimistic about housing market conditions as consumer demand continues to grow. However, builders are increasingly concerned that tariffs placed on Canadian lumber and other imported products are hurting housing affordability. Record-high lumber prices have added nearly $9,000 to the price of a new single-family home since January 2017.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI indexes inched down a single point in June. The index measuring current sales conditions fell to 75, the component gauging expectations in the next six months dropped to 76, and the metric charting buyer traffic edged down to 50.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 57 while the West and Midwest remained unchanged at 76 and 65, respectively. The South fell one point to 71.

 

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Builder Confidence Slips Two Points as Lumber Prices Soar

Home price index up 6.6% | North Salem Real Estate

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index in the US rose 6.6 percent year-on-year in April 2018, easing from a downwardly revised 6.7 percent increase in March and missing market expectations of a 6.8 percent advance. Seattle recorded the biggest increase (13.1 percent), followed by Las Vegas (12.7 percent) and San Francisco (10.9 percent). Meanwhile, the national index, covering all nine US census divisions rose 6.4 percent, down from 6.5 percent in the previous month. Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States averaged 161.11 Index Points from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 210.17 Index Points in April of 2018 and a record low of 100 Index Points in January of 2000.

 

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index

NYS median sales price rises 11.5% | Waccabuc Real Estate

Homebuyer activity remained strong in May, driving the New York State housing market to the second-highest sales total for the month with 10,348 closings, according to the housing market report released today by the New York State Association of REALTORS. May 2018 closed sales were 8.6 percent lower than the record of 11,322 set in May 2017. The median sales price growth trend continued, increasing by 11.5 percent compared to last May, ending the month at $262,000.

“Robust buyer demand continues to keep homes across the Empire State selling at a brisk pace, despite the lower number of homes listed for sale,” said Duncan R. MacKenzie, CEO of the New York State Association of REALTORS. “Newly listed homes are selling more quickly than a year ago as buyers faced with fewer options are eager to get to the closing table. We believe that without the headwind of lower inventory sales would be near the record-setting levels of a year ago.”

“While growing sales prices may entice current owners to bring greatly needed inventory to the market, the combination of higher prices and growing mortgage rates will begin to erode affordability, potentially dampening buyer enthusiasm,” said MacKenzie.

The May 2018 sales total of 10,348 represents a decrease of 8.6 percent from the May 2017 total of 11,322. Year-to-date (Jan. 1 – May 31) sales were 45,005, a decrease of 3 percent from the same period in 2017.

The May 2018 statewide median sales price was $262,000, an increase of 11.5 percent from the May 2017 median of $235,000. The year-to-date (Jan. 1 – May 31) median sales price was $259,000, an increase of 8.6 percent from the same period in 2017.

Pending sales decreased 4.3 percent in May compared to a year ago to reach 13,633.

The average days on market for home sales closed during May 2018 was 80, a decrease from 87 in May 2017. Year-to-date (Jan. 1 – May 31) days on market for closed sales was 85, down from 93 during the same period in 2017.

The months supply of homes for sale dropped 7.8 percent at the end of May to 5.9 months supply. It was at 6.4 months at the end of May 2017. A 6 month to 6.5 month supply is considered to be a balanced market. Inventory stood at 66,682, a decrease of 6.7 percent compared to May 2017.

Additional data is available at http://www.nysar.com/industry-resources/market-dataOpens a New Window.

Editor’s Note: All data is compiled from multiple listing services in the state of New York and the data include townhomes, condominiums and existing single-family homes.

Here’s Why Epoxy is Considered the Ideal for Garage Floor Coating

Those in the know in the real estate scene can attest that epoxy coating provides one of the
toughest and durable finishes on garage floors. Incredibly, they not only protect the sanctity of
garage floors, but they also help transform the outlook from ugly and boring cement to a
professionally looking and picturesque floor.

Given the fact that the garage has quickly become a place where individuals simply park the car
and leave, the benefits of having garage floor epoxy have steadily risen. All through American
homes, more people are now spending quality time in their garages doing a bunch of things.
Whether it’s band practice, science experiments, lounging or meeting sessions for Silicon
Valley-themed startups, the garage has grown in value and utility through the years.

Epoxy is considered fantastic because it can comfortably be used in both residential and
commercial applications to give a garage or shop floor a luxurious showroom shine that is
bound to leave many speechless. Even better is the fact that epoxy comes in a variety of solid
colors and hues in order to match various styles and preferences.

The Root

Naturally, when most people hear of Best Garage Floor Epoxy coating, their minds tend to drift
to the association of the term with paint. In truth, nothing could be further from the truth.

Paints in garage floors use latex acrylic products. At times, some paints ship with tiny fractions of epoxy added to the mix in order to make the entire concoction more durable when compared to standard paint versions. However, even with the incorporation of epoxy, these products are still regarded as paints and referred to as 1-part epoxy paints or simply just epoxy paints.

Epoxy is, in fact, a real thermosetting resin that is applied as a coating. To form epoxy, one
needs to combine one-part epoxide resin with one-part polyamide hardener which acts as the
catalyst to give epoxy its characteristic strength. Once applied, epoxy does not dry like normal
paint does, instead, it cures in order to come up with the superior strength and durability
qualities that enthusiasts have come to highly regard the product for.

The moisture resistant quality of epoxy makes it ideal for those in snowy climates. This is
because it is much easier to clean icy brines and road salts that collect on the floor during winter time. All one needs in order to perform a clean wipe is some mild soap and water. Once this is done, dust and other debris can easily be picked with a soft broom and/or dust mops once the floor becomes sufficiently dry.

Epoxy tends to harden floor to great degrees that even the dropping of wrenches and metallic
objects leave the floor spotless. Thicker coatings are perfect to cover minor imperfections like
tiny spider cracks and concrete flaws. The sealer quality of epoxy also makes it perfect for antidusting around the garage. To push the limits of epoxy, slip-resistant elements can be
introduced in order to create non-skid surfaces.

 

Best Garage Floor Epoxy Review

U. S. housing starts rise again | South Salem Real Estate

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for May new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.350M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.310M and an increase from the previous month’s revised 1.286M. March figures were also revised.

Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report:

Housing Starts

Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,350,000. This is 5.0 percent (±10.2 percent)* above the revised April estimate of 1,286,000 and is 20.3 percent (±14.4 percent) above the May 2017 rate of 1,122,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 936,000; this is 3.9 percent (±10.6 percent)* above the revised April figure of 901,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000. [link to report]

Here is the historical series for total privately owned housing starts, which dates from 1959. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included.

The Population-Adjusted Reality

Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau’s mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1959. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We’ve added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend.

read more…

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4182741-new-residential-housing-starts-may

Home values increase in all 50 states | Cross River Real Estate

Home prices showed yet another surge in April as year over year values increased for all  50 states, according to the latest Home Price Index report from CoreLogica global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider.

Home prices increased 6.9% nationally from April 2017 to April 2018, and increased 1.2% from the prior month, according to the report.

The chart below shows home prices have been steadily increasing at the same rate for the past several years.

CoreLogic- April Home Prices

(Source: CoreLogic)

“The best antidote for rising home prices is additional supply,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said. “New construction has failed to keep up with and meet new housing growth or replace existing inventory. More construction of for-sale and rental housing will alleviate housing cost pressures.”

An analysis of home values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, indicates 40% of metropolitan areas had an overvalued housing market as of April 2018, CoreLogic reported.

Another 28% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued while 32% were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets, 52% were overvalued, 14% were undervalued and 34% were at-value.

The national home-price index is projected to increase by 5.3% from April 2018 to April 2019, according to the CoreLogic HPI Forecast.

The forecast is an econometric model that projects calculations from analyzing state level forecast, which are measured by the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

As of April, Florida’s recovery is promising, but experts say another natural disaster could hinder its growth.

“Florida continues to show price resiliency after Hurricane Irma in 2017. Despite the impact of the hurricane, prices were up 5.8% across the state compared to a year ago,” CoreLogic President and CEO Frank Martell said. “CoreLogic data projects continued gains to home prices in Florida for the remainder of 2018. However, gains could be erased if a significant storm makes landfall again.”

 

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https://www.housingwire.com/articles/43595-corelogic-home-values-increase-in-all-50-states?eid=311691494&bid=2128678

Homebuyer demand may be weakening | Katonah Real Estate

Home values have been rising for six straight years, and the gains have been accelerating for the past two years. Unlike the last housing boom, the gains are not driven by fast and easy mortgage money, but instead by solid buyer demand and very low supply. Still, like the last housing boom, some are starting to warn these price gains cannot continue.

“The continuing run-up in home prices above the pace of income growth is simply not sustainable,” wrote Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, in response to the latest price reading from the much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices. “From the cyclical low point in home prices six years ago, a typical home price has increased by 48 percent while the average wage rate has grown by only 14 percent.”

Yun also pointed to rising mortgage interest rates as a factor that would weaken affordability. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is nearly a full percentage point higher today than it was at its most recent low in September 2017.

How to use your home as a source of cash

Some argue that despite weakened affordability, demand is just so strong that it can support higher home prices. Improving economic factors are seeing to that.

“A generally strong economy and favorable demographic tailwinds driven by the huge millennial generation aging into their home buying prime will help ensure that demand stays high, even as prices rise,” wrote Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. “Getting a mortgage remains incredibly affordable compared to paying rent each month.”

But he admits that the “advantage is starting to erode, as mortgage interest rates rise alongside prices and income growth lags behind.”

Weakening demand

And demand may in fact be weakening. A monthly survey from Redfin found fewer potential buyers requesting home tours or making offers.

“April was the first time in 27 months that we saw a year-over-year decline in the number of customers touring homes,” said Redfin’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “We believe this was driven by the low levels of new listings in March.”

Richardson points to an increase in new listings in April is a positive turn for homebuyers, which could bode well for futures sales. Prices, however, still stand in the way, and the increased inventory was more pronounced in higher-priced tiers.

Meanwhile the home price gains are widest on the low end of the market, where supply is leanest. That is why home sales have been dropping most on the low end. Evidence is now mounting that a growing number of first-time buyers are giving up and dropping out of the market altogether. Sales to first-time buyers dropped 2 percent in the first quarter of this year compared with the first quarter of 2017, according to Genworth Mortgage Insurance.

“This quarter’s decline in first-time homebuyer sales reflects a slowdown in cyclical momentum as the first-time homebuyer market approached its historical norms. It also reflects a shortage of available homes priced at or below the median first-time homebuyer market price of $250,000,” wrote Tian Liu, Genworth’s chief economist. “Supply pressures will continue to drive price appreciation and freeze out a large percentage of the 2.7 million first-time homebuyers who are still missing from the market.”

Competition from all-cash investors continues to thwart first-time buyers, most of whom are reliant on mortgage financing. With so little supply available, bidding wars are the rule, rather than the exception.

“When you’re competing against 10 other offers, you have to stand out, so sometimes a letter to the sellers can pull on the emotional heartstrings, but really it’s all about the dollars,” said Karen Kelly, a real estate agent with Compass in the Washington, D.C., area.

Measuring affordability

Half of the homes on the market in D.C. in April sold in eight days or less, according to the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors. Home prices in D.C. were over 13 percent higher in April of this year compared with a year ago. The number of listings was down more than 3 percent.

Affordability continues to be a tricky metric to monitor. Some economists argue that housing is no less affordable than it was in the early part of this century, when adjusting for inflation. No question, though, even if home prices are still lower than they were during the last housing boom, adjusting for inflation, the mortgage market today is nothing like it was then.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/29/run-up-in-home-prices-is-not-sustainable-realtors-chief-economist.html