Monthly Archives: February 2018

Home prices up 6.3% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December (“December” is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Shows Home Prices End the Year 6.3% Higher than 2016

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% increase, and San Francisco with a 9.2% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2017 versus the year ending November 2017

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported increases of 0.2%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.6% month-over-month increases. Twelve of the 20 cities reported increases in December before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

“The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Across the 20 cities covered by S&P Corelogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62%; over the same period, inflation was 12.4%. None of the cities covered in this release saw real, inflation-adjusted prices fall in 2017. The National Index, which reached its low point in 2012, is up 38% in six years after adjusting for inflation, a real annual gain of 5.3%. The National Index’s average annual real gain from 1976 to 2017 was 1.3%. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices.

“Within the last few months, there are beginning to be some signs that gains in housing may be leveling off. Sales of existing homes fell in December and January after seasonal adjustment and are now as low as any month in 2017. Pending sales of existing homes are roughly flat over the last several months. New home sales appear to be following the same trend as existing home sales. While the price increases do not suggest any weakening of demand, mortgage rates rose from 4% to 4.4% since the start of the year. It is too early to tell if the housing recovery is slowing. If it is, some moderation in price gains could be seen later this year.”
emphasis added

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8MGeORtUnHo/WpVndAxbwTI/AAAAAAAAuAs/ltfgAaMs0j0KlzI9wxECj3IlOZcfiIHQACLcBGAs/s320/CSDec2017.PNG

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 3.1% from the peak, and up 0.6% in December (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off slightly from the peak, and up 0.6% (SA) in December.

The National index is 7.0% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.7% (SA) in December.  The National index is up 44.7% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

image: https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4jkYhauaKeE/WpVnfhJaRlI/AAAAAAAAuAw/8cCSEHxlpZUKEZxrjeaGTjLgpVE7nlIpwCLcBGAs/s320/CSYoYDec2017.PNG

Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesThe second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.0% compared to December 2016.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in all 20 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

 

 

 

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/02/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html#55yjBz0YrscRrl4I.99

Tight home buying market | Pound Ridge Real Estate

The tight US housing market is prompting a growing number of homebuyers to bid before they’re able to see the properties in person, a Redfin survey found.

Last year, 35% of homebuyers — over a third — made an offer sight-unseen, according to a survey conducted late last year. That’s up from 33% of buyers that were polled in May 2017, and 19% of those polled in June 2016.

It shows how heated the race to make the fastest and most attractive offer has become.

Because builders are unable to keep up with the pace of demand, housing markets in many major cities are tight, except at the luxury end. Additionally, existing homeowners trying to upgrade may be able to sell quickly, but often hesitate knowing they’ll face a much tougher buyer’s market. That’s making even fewer homes available for sale.

Millennials were much more likely than older homebuyers to make offers sight-unseen. Redfin’s Greg McCarriston, who authored the report, said this was partly because the younger demographic tends to have more faith in what they see when shopping online. Remote shoppers also relied on agents to conduct live video tours, and for advice on details like school districts and neighborhoods.

A full 57% of offers in Los Angeles were made sight-unseen, while 46% of offers San Diego, and 44% in San Francisco were made remotely, according to the study.

“Demand is relentless despite all of these headwinds homebuyers should be facing in terms of low inventory competition and high prices,” Cheryl Young, a senior economist at Trulia, told Business Insider. “I think we’ll actually see demand continue going up this year.”

 

 

 

read more…

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/home-offers-sight-unseen-grows-in-redfin-survey-2018-2