Monthly Archives: May 2017

#Delinquency Rates Point to Continued Healing | Armonk Real Estate

Following a surprising, but small, increase in the percent of 1-4 family first-lien mortgages that were either 90 or more days delinquent or were in the process of foreclosure over the fourth quarter of 2016, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the measure continued its descent in the first quarter of 2017. This measure of delinquency, at least for conforming loans, is declining for both borrowers with a credit score below 660 and borrowers at or above it. Moreover, the gap in rate of delinquency for the two categories of borrowers is shrinking.

After rising by 10 basis points to 1.8 percent over the fourth quarter of 2016, the proportion of all mortgages either 90 or more days delinquent or in the foreclosure process fell by 10 basis points over the first quarter of 2017, currently sitting at 1.7 percent. The proportion of mortgages either 90 or more days past due or in the foreclosure process is highest for FHA-insured mortgages, 2.6 percent, and lower for both VA and Conventional loans.

However, at 2.6 percent, this measure of delinquency is below its 2005-2008 average of 4.1 percent. Similarly the current level of 90 or more day delinquency or entering the foreclosure process for VA loans is also below its average in the three years prior to the most recent recession. However, despite a rate below the overall percentage, conventional loans either 90 or more days delinquent or starting the foreclosure process remains 20 basis points above its 2005-2007 average level, 1.3 percent.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the government-sponsored entities (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, provides estimations of loans purchased by the GSEs that become 90 or more days delinquent or start the foreclosure process*. This information is also provided by credit score, scores under 660 and those above or equal to 660. However, the series does not begin until 2009.

Overall, the proportion of mortgages 90 or more days past due or starting the foreclosure process has declined since its 2010 peak level. The declines have taken place for both mortgages loans obtained by borrowers with a credit score below 660 and borrowers with a credit score above 660. Currently, 4.6 percent of borrowers with a credit score below 660, the proportion of mortgage loans either 90 or more days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure, 8.3 percentage points less than its peak. The 0.8 percent of borrowers with a credit score at or above 660 with this kind of delinquency rate is 2.7 percentage points below its peak level, 3.5 percent.

Although the 90 or more day delinquency and foreclosure started rate for borrowers in both credit score categories is declining, the rate of decrease for borrowers with less than a 660 credit score is falling faster. As a result, the gap between these delinquency rates is shrinking. The figure above shows that at its peak in 2009 and 2010, the percent of borrowers with less than a 660 had a 90 or more day delinquency and foreclosure started rate that was 8 percentage points above the rate for borrowers with a credit score at or above 660. This gap has now shrunk to 3.4 percentage points.

Specifically, the data for 90 or more days delinquent is calculated as the residual between the percent of loans 60 or more days delinquent and the portion 60-89 days past due.

The definitions for the FHFA components are as follows:

60-plus-days Delinquent – Loans that are two or more payments delinquent, including loans in relief, in the process of foreclosure, or in the process of bankruptcy, i.e., total servicing minus current and performing, and 30 to 59 days delinquent loans. Our calculation may exclude loans in bankruptcy process that are less than 60 days delinquent.

60-89 Days Delinquent – Includes loans that are only two payments delinquent.

Serious Delinquency – All loans in the process of foreclosure plus loans that are three or more payments delinquent (including loans in the process of bankruptcy).

The definition of serious delinquency in the FHFA data likely differs from the MBA definition of “seriously delinquent” provided below.

 

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/05/trends-in-delinquency-rates-point-to-continued-healing/

Armonk 2017 Fol-de-Rol and Country Fair | Armonk Real Estate

The Armonk Lions Club is proud to invite you to our

2017 Fol-de-Rol and Country Fair

Dear Neighbor,

The Armonk Lions Club is pleased to announce the 43rd Annual Fol-de-Rol, taking place June 8, 9, 10 and 11 at Wampus Brook Park, Armonk NY.  Please join us and support the charitable work we do in our community and worldwide.  June 8 and 9 – Rides only, 6-10 PM; Saturday June 10 11 AM-10 PM and Sunday June 11 Noon-5 PM.  See www.armonklions.org for more information.

Armonk Lions support our local fire, police and NC4 first responders; summer camp programs for children with vision impairments and diabetes; community medical and emergency services; and disaster relief around the world through Lions Clubs International Foundation.  This year our fund-raising effort will support Puppies Behind Bars, a program which trains inmates at the Bedford Women’s prison to raise and train service dogs, which are then paired with our returning military veterans who need support and companionship.

Admission to the Fol-de-Rol is free, and we depend on your support of these worthy projects by attending the Fair and by purchasing raffle tickets.  All proceeds go to charity; the Lions are all volunteers.  This year, rather than mailing paper tickets to you, we are initiating an online raffle.  Please use this link: https://raffles.ticketprinting.com/raffle/5776-Armonk-Lions-2017-Fol-De-Rol-Raffle/

to visit our Raffle River site and purchase raffle tickets.  This site is safe and secure and allows you to pay by credit card.  If you would prefer to mail us a check and receive paper raffle tickets, please mail your donation to:

Armonk Lions Club Inc. – Raffle
PO Box 211
Armonk NY 10504

and we will send your raffle tickets.  The drawing is held on Sunday June 11 at 5 PM, and the prizes are listed on the website.

If you have any questions, or if you would like to volunteer to help us at the Fol-de-Rol, please reply to this email address and we will contact you directly.  Thank you very much for your ongoing support of this Armonk tradition!

Sincerely,
Armonk Lions Club
Doug Martino, President
Anthony Baratta, Fol-de-Rol Chairman
Michael Rosenman, Treasurer

Where:  Wampus Brook Park, Armonk NY

Thursday June 8, Rides 6-10 PM
Friday June 9, Rides 6-10 PM
Saturday June 10, Vendors 10 AM-10 PM; Rides 11 AM-10 PM
Sunday June 11, Vendors 11 AM-5 PM; Rides Noon-5 PM

Developers are chasing the lower end of the condo market | Mt Kisco Real Estate

New condominiums coming to market are getting cheaper, as developers work to capture buyers in the popular sub-$5 million market.

In Manhattan, the average unit price on condos approved for market by the New York Attorney General’s office has been steadily trending down over the past two years. Back in 2015, developers were shooting for an average unit price of just under $5 million, according to The Real Deal’s analysis of accepted offering plans for the borough. In 2016, that average had dropped 24 percent to just below $3.8 million. And it looks like the trend is here to stay. In the first four months of 2017, the analysis showed, the average accepted unit price in the borough was $3.1 million, down 18 percent from 2016’s average accepted price.

It’s more evidence developers are shifting gears to provide product for the lower end of the market.

“We’re trying to make sure apartments aren’t too big or too expensive, given where the market is,” said Steven Rutter, the director of new development at Stribling Associates. “It’s a larger strategy to design stuff that is more affordable. We know the under $5 million market is stronger.” Stribling is handling sales at Gluck + and Cogswell Lee Development’s 150 Rivington Street, a project that was approved for sale last year with apartments starting at $995,000. Rutter said many developers are now planning buildings with a different mix of unit sizes than two or three years ago. “Buyers are looking for value right now. There’s a lot for them to choose from.”

At Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group, president Kelly Kennedy Mack said in some cases they are telling their developer clients to adjust their unit mixes to remain below certain prices — although it’s not a blanket approach.

“There’s been an intelligent and necessary response to supply and demand dynamics,” she said. Corcoran tracks when buildings open for sale, which the firm define’s as when a sales office opens, rather than when the AG approves the offering plan. Mack said five of the seven Manhattan developments that have become publicly available this year are targeting a mid-market price of between $1,800 and $2,400 per square foot. It’s now been a year since a development with an average asking price of $4,000 per square foot and above has opened, with Related Companies’ 70 Vestry the most recent last big-ticket item, according to Mack.

The shift towards cheaper new development product has also broadened the buyer pool, developers said. “We’ve introduced the new development market to people who haven’t been able to afford it it before,” said Dan Hollander, managing principal of DHA Capital. Its project at 75 Kenmare Street in Nolita, approved earlier this year, has an average unit price of $3.7 million, according to the AG’s office. The company opted for lower prices following the success of its previous project at 50 Clinton Street, according Hollander, which launched in 2015 offering one-bedrooms for under $1 million and two-bedrooms for under $2 million. All but four of the 37 units are in contract at 50 Clinton, according to StreetEasy data. Hollander said targeting the lower price points and building more efficient-sized apartments was “experimental” at the time, but paid off because there’s so much demand in the sub $5-million market. “A lot of people want to get into a new condo… It’s a very appealing prospect, but there’s been little out there in their price range,” he said.

For other developers, the lower part of the Manhattan market has always been a safe bet. “We’ve been working like this for years,” said Gaia Real Estate’s Danny Fishman. “We always said we don’t care about the top 5 or 10 percent.” The company is joining with Acro Group to develop the Vantage, at 97-unit condo conversion at 308 East 38th Street where 30 percent of the units are priced under $1 million. Fishman said their business plan is to keep the unit cost down, and to design buildings with fewer amenities so there are lower common charges. The Vantage, approved earlier this year, has a gym but no swimming pool. The firm took a similar approach at its Hell’s Kitchen condo conversion at 416 West 52nd Street, where Gaia launched sales last year with the sub-$3 million buyers as the target.  “I’m giving up the market of the billionaire, but how many are there?” said Fishman.

CORE’s Emily Beare agreed that more new development product is becoming available for buyers who would normally only be able to buy resales. “For a few years the new development was geared towards the ultra-luxury, $10 million and above, and much larger units…. I think developers have switched direction a little for people who were priced out,” she said. The strategy shift may benefit buyers seeking new apartments with multiple bedrooms at a lower price point, she added.

 

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https://therealdeal.com/2017/05/25/de-luxed-developers-are-chasing-the-lower-end-of-the-condo-market/?utm_source=The+Real+Deal+E-Lerts&utm_campaign=eb04985cb1-New_York_Weekend_Update_10.18.2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6e806bb87a-eb04985cb1-385733629

Decline for April Sales Masks 2017 Gains | North Salem Real Estate

Contracts for new single-family home sales fell more than expected in April, declining 11.4% to a 569,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate according to estimates from the joint data release of HUD and the Census Bureau. The decline occurred after solid, positive revisions for new home sales for the first three months of the year.

All told, total new home sales for 2017 stand at 210,000, a 11.3% gain over the 2016 comparable total of 189,000.

NAHB expects new home sales to continue to progress along the established, modest growth trend due to ongonig job growth, improving household formations, continuing favorable housing affordability conditions, and tight existing home inventory.

Inventory growth continued in April. After hovering near 240,000 for most of 2016, inventory has now risen to 268,000. The current months’ supply number stands at a healthy 5.7. Given tight existing inventory, more new homes are required to meet housing demand.

The most recent data also indicate a growing share of homes not-started in builder inventory. For example, on a year-over-year basis, homes under construction in inventory have increased by a little more than 6% over the last year. Completed, ready-to-occupy homes (there are only 59,000) are up 2% since April of last year. In contrast, homes not-started listed in inventory have increased 42%, from 36,000 in April of 2016 to 52,000 last month.

Pricing data in the April report find that the median sales price of new homes sold in April was $309,200, while the average price was $368,300. These levels are below the 2016 annual totals but remain higher than the 2015 data.

Regionally, all areas saw monthly declines in sales in April. Sales were down 26% in the West, 13% in the Midwest, 8% in the Northeast and 4% in the South. As with the national headline number, the monthly numbers obscure growth for 2017. On a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 26% in the Midwest, 15% in the Northeast, 10% in the South and 7% in the West compared to April of 2016.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/05/decline-for-april-sales-masks-2017-gains/

New-home sales tumble | South Salem Real Estate

Sales of newly constructed homes stumbled in April, as builders retreated after a March surge that marked the strongest selling pace in a decade.

New-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was well below the MarketWatch consensus forecast of a 610,000 annual rate, but was offset by sharp upward revisions to data from prior months.

In particular, March’s pace was raised to a pace of 642,000, the highest since October 2007.

April’s figures were 11.4% lower for the month, but 0.5% higher than in the same period a year ago.

The government’s new-home sales data are based on small samples and are often heavily revised. Total sales in the first four months of the year are 11% higher compared with the same period a year ago.

In April, the median sales price for a new home was $309,200, down from $318,700 in March and $321,300 in the year-ago period. As the pace of selling decelerated, there were 5.7 months’ worth of homes available, up from 4.9 months in March. A market with a healthy balance between supply and demand typically has about 6 months’ worth of inventory.

One factor worth noting, April was one of the rainiest months in decades, and that may have helped dent sales. Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia chief economist, said while he wasn’t worried about data from one month, builders still have a way to go before residential construction normalizes.

“If we compare the share of new home sales to total sales, that share needs to more than double,” McLaughlin wrote in a Tuesday note. New-home sales made up nearly 12% of total sales, about half the historical average, he said.

The 12-month rolling total of sales rose to 88.3% of their 50-year average, McLaughlin added.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-tumble-in-april-after-soaring-to-10-year-high-in-march-2017-05-23

Canada Must Deflate Its Housing Bubble | Waccabuc Real Estate

Canada’s housing market offers a case study in a contentious economic issue: If a central bank sees a bubble forming, should it act to deflate it? In this instance, the answer should be a resounding yes.

A combination of foreign money, local speculation and abundant credit has driven Canadian house prices to levels that even government officials recognize cannot be sustained. In the Toronto area, for example, they were up 32 percent from a year earlier in April. David Rosenberg, an economist at Canadian investment firm Gluskin Sheff, notes that it would take a decline of more than 40 percent to restore the historical relationship between prices and household income.

Granted, the bubble bears little resemblance to the U.S. subprime boom that triggered the global financial crisis. Although one specialized lender, Home Capital Group, has had issues with fraudulent mortgage applications, regulation has largely kept out high-risk products. Homeowners haven’t been withdrawing a lot of equity, and can’t legally walk away from their debts like many Americans can. Banks aren’t sitting on the kinds of structured products that destroyed balance sheets in the U.S. Nearly all mortgage securities and a large portion of loans are guaranteed by the government.

That said, the situation presents clear risks. As buyers stretch to afford homes, household debt has risen to 167 percent of disposable income — the highest among the Group of Seven industrialized nations. This is a serious vulnerability, and a big part of the rationale behind Canadian banks’ recent ratings downgrade. The more indebted people are, the more sensitive their spending becomes to changes in prices and interest rates, potentially allowing an otherwise small shock to result in a deep recession.

What to do? Administrative efforts to curb lending and tax foreign buyers have helped but haven’t solved the problem. That’s largely because extremely low interest rates are still giving people a big incentive to borrow. The Bank of Canada has held its target rate at 1 percent or lower since 2009, and at 0.5 percent since 2015, when it eased to counteract the effect of falling oil prices. That’s a very stimulative stance in a country where the neutral rate is estimated to be about 3 percent or higher. One can’t help but see a parallel with the low U.S. rates and the housing bubble of the early 2000s.

 

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https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-23/what-canada-should-do-about-its-housing-bubble

America’s Cities Are Running Out of Room | Katonah Real Estate

A shortage of homes for sale has bedeviled U.S. house hunters in recent years, so why don’t builders build more? One problem is that they’re running out of lots to build on—at least in the places that people want to live.

Cities that were sprawling before the Great Recession have begun to sprawl again. Space-constrained cities, meanwhile, have run out of room to build. That reality has spurred developers to focus on center-city neighborhoods where high-density building is allowed—and new units command exceedingly high prices.

At some point, said Issi Romem, chief economist at BuildZoom, vacant lots in desirable urban neighborhoods will run out. “If you have three days of rations left, you’ll be fine on day one, two, three,” said Romem, author of new research demonstrating home construction patterns. “On day 4, you have a problem.”

Historically, cities grew outward, as builders developed tracts on the periphery—then filled in the land between various developments over time. When these so-called expansive cities of the South and Southwest run out of infill land on which to build, developers simply pushed out further.
Some of these cities, like Austin and Nashville, have seen downtown boomlets. But more broadly, the building trends in those metros looks more like Dallas: Inside a 30-mile radius from the center of the city, new home sales decreased from 2000 to 2015. Outside the radius, though, sales are up by more than 50 percent. The same trend has played out to varying degrees in Phoenix, Atlanta, and San Antonio, among other cities.

In America’s most expensive cities, however, that dynamic has been turned inside out (or perhaps outside in). New construction trends in places like New York City have been tightly focused on downtown clusters where zoning rules permit high-density construction. These cities stopped expanding their geographic footprint decades ago, leaving builders to concentrate on finding buildable lots inside existing boundaries. As those lots became harder to find, land prices increase, reducing options for builders hoping to turn a profit. Developers building on pricey lots generally seek to offset land prices by building more densely, Romem said. In many cases, that means focusing on high-end apartments that offer better profit margins. The wealthiest residents are the only ones who can buy, and a vicious cycle is created.

Lately, there has been some give as oversupply of new high-end apartments forces landlords in New York and San Francisco to drop prices on expensive aeries. Still, the broader pattern continues to lean in the direction of higher rents.

What happens next depends on whether voters and their elected officials rewrite zoning rules to allow denser construction, said Romem, particularly in neighborhoods currently limited to single-family homes. Under current rules, he said, it’s unlikely new housing will get built at affordable prices, pushing city-dwellers into a game of musical chairs rigged to favor the rich.

“As long as these cities continue to do well economically, you’re going see poorer folks replaced by richer folks,” he said. “You’re going to read stories about teachers not being able to find place to live.”

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bloomberg.com

Decline for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction | Bedford Real Estate

The number of single-family homes built-for-rent fell slightly at the start of 2017, falling to 6,000 for the quarter. Over the last four quarters, total production of this type of housing was 33,000 homes.

According to data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, the market share of single-family homes built-for-rent, as measured on a one-year moving average, stood at 4.1% of total starts as of the first quarter of 2017.

Given the small size of the market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements are not typically statistically significant. The current market share remains higher than the historical average of 2.8% but is down from the 5.8% reading registered at the start of 2013. This class of single-family construction excludes homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes. It only includes homes built and held for rental purposes.

With the onset of the Great Recession and the ongoing declines in the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes rose. Despite the current elevated market concentration, the total number of single-family starts built-for-rent remains low in terms of the total building market.

Of course, the built-for-rent share of single-family homes is considerably smaller than the single-family home portion of the rental housing stock, which is 35% according to the 2015 American Community Survey. As homes age, they are more likely to be rented. Thus, the primary source of single-family rental homes is not construction but the existing housing stock. In fact, from 2005 to 2015, 56% of the gains in the rental housing stock were due to single-family homes.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/05/decline-for-single-family-built-for-rent-construction/

New home sales plummet more than 11% in April | Cross River Real Estate

New home sales plummeted from last month, however the level of housing inventory showed improvement, according to a joint release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales of new single-family homes in April came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 569,000 sales, a decrease of 11.4% from last month’s 642,000 sales. However, this is up 0.5% from last year’s 566,000 sales.

Brent Nyitray, iServe Residential Lending director of capital markets, pointed out in his note to clients that new home sales are still lagging behind population growth.

Surprisingly, the median sales price dropped to $309,200, down from last month’s $315,100.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of April remained steady at 268,000 homes. But with the lower rate of sales, this represents a 5.7-month supply of homes, up from 5.4 months in March.

While falling home prices and an increase in inventory could show a cooling housing market, time will tell if this was a one-month drop or a new trend.

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/40189-new-home-sales-plummet-more-than-11-in-april?eid=311691494&bid=1763675

6 Food Trucks to Book for Your Wedding | Pound Ridge Real Estate

With so many events – engagement parties, showers, rehearsal dinners, after parties and send-off brunches – associated with your wedding day, food trucks are the perfect mobile way to break out of a catering rut. Six of our favorites offer a variety of cuisines and services perfect for all your events, or even the big day itself.

 

Melt Mobile

Based in Stamford, this duo of trucks offers seven grilled cheeses, plus sweet dessert melts.

The Menu: Rentals include the full menu (from the original to the jalapeno popper to the pulled pork with caramelized onions and pickles), plus any daily specials.

The Cost: Main service is $25/person; end-of-night service is $400 plus consumption. Bookings more than 1 hour from Stamford incur a $250 travel fee.

Test it Out: Follow Melt Mobile on facebook for a weekly list of locations.

Book it: www.melt-mobile.com

 

Walter’s Hot Dog Truck

Mamaroneck’s iconic hot-dog stand now has a small fleet of trucks serving its most popular standards.

The Menu: Customers can pick and choose which dishes (hot dogs, fries, potato puffs, ice cream, and homemade Italian ices, to name a few) they’d like to offer.

Cost: Starts at $1000 and varies based on the menu

Test it Out: The truck is at the White Plains Farmers’ Market on Wednesdays (10 a.m. to 4 p.m.) until November.

Book it: www.waltershotdogs.com/truck

 

The Cookery’s DoughNation

Chef David DiBari’s Dobbs Ferry pizza truck serves original interpretations of Neapolitan-style pies.

The Menu: Five pies: Margherita; Cookery meatball with silky ricotta; four cheese drizzled with chili honey; Brussels sprouts and bacon; and fresh lemon with scamorza and basil.

The Cost: Prices range from $1,200 (up to 50 guests) to $2,700 (up to 200 guests)

Test it Out: Find it at farmers’ markets in Irvington, Hastings-on-Hudson, and Chappaqua.

Book it: www.thecookerysdoughnation.com; only available April to November within 65 miles of Dobbs Ferry.

 

 

Frites of NY

Party of Two Catering operates this popular Hudson Valley-based truck specializing in fries tossed with flavorful seasonings or smothered in creative toppings.

The Menu: Choose from three options. The Basic Party (two hours of service, choose three menu items from more than 15 options) and the After Party (one hour of service, choose from seven options) both feature all-you-can-eat topped fries. The Toss Up is a pay-by-the-hour service and only includes tossed fries.

Cost: The Basic Party, $14 per guest; the After Party, $7 per guest; the Toss Up, $5 per guest per hour.

Test it Out: Follow Frites of NY on Facebook to find the truck at events.

Book it: www.fritesofny.com; truck is not permitted in Rockland, Greene or Albany counties.

 

The Souvlaki Truck

Greek street food (and thick-cut oregano fries) is the big draw for this Yonkers truck.

The Menu: Choose from Vending Style (guests order individually) or Buffet Style (setup of trays), to bring chicken souvlaki, pork souvlaki, lamb gyro, falafel, and fries to your guests.

The Cost: Vending style charges a truck rental fee (starts at $500) plus consumption; Buffet Style, $1,000 up to 50 guests, then $15 per guest.

Test it Out: The truck parks on Central Ave in Yonkers (between Fort Hill Ave and Ardsley Rd) Tuesday through Sunday.

Book it: www.souvlakitruck.com

 

Bona Bona Truck

The sweetest way to cap the night? How about a few scoops Nick DiBona’s popular, locally made ice cream.

The Menu: Scoops (cups or cones), sundaes, and shakes in flavors like rainbow cookie and cannoli, plus plenty of whipped cream, sauces, and sprinkles.

The Cost: $350 truck-rental fee plus per person fees $6-$13 (depending on the menu)

Test it Out: Follow Bona Bona Ice Cream Truck on Facebook to find it at events.

Book it: www.bonabonaicecream.com; only available within 20 miles of Larchmont

 

read more…

http://www.westchestermagazine.com/Blogs/Wedding-of-the-Month/May-2017/6-Food-Trucks-to-Book-for-Your-Wedding/