Monthly Archives: June 2016

Used home sales | Waccabuc Real Estate

Existing Home Sales in the United States is expected to be 5569.18 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Existing Home Sales in the United States to stand at 5438.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Existing Home Sales is projected to trend around 5182.05 Thousand in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Existing Home Sales

 

Forecast Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020 Unit
Existing Home Sales 5530 5569 5472 5453 5439 5182 Thousand
United States Existing Home Sales Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Existing Home Sales using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States Existing Home Sales – was last predicted on Wednesday, June 22, 2016.
United States Housing Last Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Building Permits 1138 1140 1152 1161 1171 1250
Housing Starts 1164 1164 1175 1184 1193 1213
New Home Sales 619 531 475 517 510 590
Pending Home Sales 4.6 3.38 2.9 2.3 1.99 1.42
Existing Home Sales 5530 5569 5472 5453 5439 5182
Construction Spending -1.8 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.9
Housing Index 0.2 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.4 0.31
Nahb Housing Market Index 60 58 59.79 59.1 58.6 53.76
Mortgage Rate 3.76 4.9 5.1 3.85 3.9 6.5
Mortgage Applications 2.9 0.02 0.49 0.5 0.5 0.5
Home Ownership Rate 63.5 63.52 63.53 63.53 63.53 63.53
Case Shiller Home Price Index 184 192 195 196 196 174

Existing home sales jumped in May | North Salem Real Estate

Existing home sales jumped in May to their highest increase in almost 10 years, according to a recent report by the National Association of Realtors.

While existing home sales may have jumped, the high demand and lagging home prices caused the median sales prices to also shoot up to an all-time high, according to NAR.

In fact, all regions except for the Midwest saw strong sales increases in May.

Total existing home sales, or completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased by 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million in May. This is up from April’s 5.43 million.

After this gain, sales now increased to 4.5% from last year’s 5.29 million and are at their highest annual pace since February of 2007. This is the third consecutive month of rising sales, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” Yun said.

“With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now,” he added.

Although home prices are up, they are not yet at pre-recession levels.

“May’s existing home sales numbers suggest that healthy demand continues to support a recovering housing market, but that inventory woes are preventing a full recovery to pre-recession levels,” said Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin. Trulia is an online real estate listing service.

Some insist that the increase in existing home sales holds little good news.

“It’s encouraging to see another month of growth, the third in a row, in today’s May existing home sales report,” according to Svenja Gudell, chief economist for the real estate listing service Zillow. “But beyond that, it offers buyers little good news to grasp onto.”

“Inventory, while up very modestly from April largely thanks to more condos coming up for sale, is still well below a year ago,” Gudell said. “And the time homes spend on the market has fallen by a week in just one month, to 32 days, making an already hyper-competitive market even more so.”

“Buyers struggling to find an affordable home to buy will continue to do so, even given these very small improvements,” he continued.

Median home prices peaked last June at $236,300, but increased to $239,700 in May. This is an annual increase of 4.7% in home prices, and marks to 51st consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

“Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer,” Yun said.

While total housing inventory rose 1.4% from last month to 2.15 million existing homes available for sale, it is still down 5.7% from last year, according to NAR.

 

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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37338-existing-home-sales-grow-at-highest-pace-in-9-years?eid=311691494&bid=1441344

U.S. existing home sales rise to more than nine-year high | Cross River Real Estate

U.S. home resales rose in May to a more than nine-year high as improving supply increased choices for buyers, suggesting the economy remains on solid footing despite a sharp slowdown in job growth last month.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.53 million units last month, the highest level since February 2007.

“The economy can’t be going too far off course when home buying is picking up,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

April’s sales pace was revised down to 5.43 million units from the previously reported 5.45 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales rising 1.1 percent to a 5.54 million-unit pace in May.

Sales were up 4.5 percent from a year ago.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the report as investors nervously awaited the outcome of Britain’s referendum on European Union membership on Thursday.

The housing index .HGX was up 0.13 percent. Shares in the nation’s largest home builder, D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N), were flat while Lennar Corp (LEN.N) rose 0.2 percent.

The strong home resales added to retail sales data in painting an upbeat picture of the economy. That should help allay the fears that were stoked by last month’s paltry job gains.

The higher existing home sales suggest an increase in brokers’ commissions, which should boost the residential investment portion of the gross domestic product report.

Housing is being driven by improving household formation as some young adults find employment and older Americans move into smaller and cheaper homes.

MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE SURGES

Existing home sales surged 4.1 percent in the Northeast and climbed 4.6 percent in the South. Sales in the West, which has seen a strong increase in house prices amid tight inventories, jumped 5.4 percent.

In the Midwest, sales tumbled 6.5 percent last month. The decline, however, followed recent hefty gains.

The number of unsold homes on the market in May rose 1.4 percent from April to 2.15 million units. Supply was, however, down 5.7 percent from a year ago.

In May, new listings typically stayed on the market for 32 days, the shortest period of time since the NAR started tracking the data. That was down from 39 days in April and 40 days a year ago.

At May’s sales pace, it would take 4.7 months to clear the stock of houses on the market, unchanged from April. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

Economists say builders will need to ramp up construction of new homes to meet the pent-up demand.

With inventory still tight, the median house price soared 4.7 percent from a year ago to a record $239,700 last month.

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSKCN0Z81ND

Renters Insurance | Waccabuc Real Estate

Look around any rented apartment, condominium or house and you’re likely to find the same things you would see in an owner-occupied home — furniture, clothes, electronics, and other belongings. In other words, you’ll see the same items that play an important role in everyday life.

A standard home insurance policy typically provides a homeowner with some protection for these types of belongings, and similar protection is also available to renters. Unfortunately, renters insurance remains a vastly underused resource. Surveys and studies show that less than half of renters in the U.S. have renters insurance.

You may be a young professional in your first loft or a retiree enjoying more coziness and less yardwork. Either way, if you rent, the best way to help protect your valued belongings is renters insurance.

Two kinds of property: the landlord’s and yours

Why is it so important for renters to get protection for their belongings? It’s a matter of where the landlord’s coverage ends and where your coverage should begin.

Say, for example, that a severe storm tears part of the roof off your apartment building while you’re at work and lets the rain pour in. Just your luck, the hole in the roof is directly above the spot in the kitchen where you keep the coffee maker that brews a perfect cup every time.

You come home, see this dripping disaster and wonder, “Who’s going to pay for this?” Actually, you should rephrase it as a two-part question:

  • “Who pays for the damage to the building?” If your landlord has adequately insured the property, that coverage could help ensure that you’ll have a sound roof over your head again when repairs are complete.
  • “Now that the building is squared away, who pays for my coffee maker?” A standard renters policy could help pay to replace your little morning brewmeister, if your policy covers this type of damage.

The reason for turning one question into two is simple. Your landlord’s policy typically covers the structure of the building and the appliances. Your belongings, however, are more than likely excluded from his or her coverage.

What do renters need protection from?

A renters policy could provide some of the same safeguards as homeowners insurance, which could help protect your belongings from threats including:

  • Fire
  • Smoke
  • Water
  • Lightning
  • Theft
  • Vandalism
  • Windstorm
  • Explosion (yes, you read that right.)

Here’s an important point to remember: As with homeowners insurance, your coverage may be subject to limitations. Your agent can help you understand what items may be covered and what kind of threats may not be applicable.

For example, the scenario above could be viable in the case of a rainstorm, in which the water falls from the sky. Floodwaters, on the other hand, typically aren’t covered by standard homeowners or renters policies, and fall under the domain of flood insurance coverage, which is available for purchase through the U.S. government’s FloodSmart program.

The good news is that a renters policy may help protect your property from more common types of water damage, such as damage resulting from a burst pipe.

Protect your wallet along with your stuff

A renters policy could offer a potential safeguard for more than your personal belongings.

You try to be a good host, but some guests just find their way to trouble like a dog finds its way to dropped food. If one of your guests suffers an injury at your rental and tries to hold you responsible, renters insurance could help pay the cost of legal expenses and/or medical treatment.

 

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http://www.zillow.com/blog/renters-insurance-covers-gap-198890/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ZillowBlog+%28Zillow+Blog%29

Single-family housing starts slows | South Salem Real Estate

The May pace of single-family housing starts was effectively flat relative to April after downward revisions for prior months, standing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 764,000. However, according to estimates from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the May rate marks a 10% gain in the pace of single-family construction on a year-over-year basis.

Yesterday’s increase in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index suggests the industry will expand single-family home construction in the months ahead.

starts_hmi_june

On a three-month moving average basis, single-family starts ticked down due to the elevated construction pace recorded in February. While NAHB expects growth in single-family construction due to favorable demographics, lot supplies are a growing challenge holding back production, particularly in markets in the West and Northeast.

Multifamily starts (2+ unit production) came in at a 400,000 pace on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, showing surprising strength and up 8% on a year-over-year basis. However, the pace of multifamily permits is down almost 28% on year-over-year basis as of May. This is consistent with the NAHB forecast, which shows a smaller total of multifamily starts for this year compared to 2015.

Regionally, expansion has been particularly strong in the South, where single-family starts for April are 17% higher than a year ago. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 55% of single-family starts for the month were located in the South.

There has been some weakening in the West, where single-family starts are down almost 5% on a year-over-year basis. Access to lots is a key concern. The Midwest showed a monthly drop of 15%, but on a year-over-year basis single-family start are 8% higher. Single-family construction is up almost 13% in the Northeast.

units under production

Taking the long view, an examination of the count of homes currently under construction provides the degree of market mix and momentum of the recovery in home construction. As of May, 56% of units under construction in the nation were multifamily (574,000), a 16% gain in the total from a year earlier.

 

read more…

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/06/single-family-starts-flat-in-may/

US Housing starts flat | Katonah Real Estate

Housing Starts in the United States is expected to be 1163.61 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Housing Starts in the United States to stand at 1193.24 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Housing Starts is projected to trend around 1213.00 Thousand in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Housing Starts
Forecast Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020 Unit
Housing Starts 1164 1164 1175 1184 1193 1213 Thousand
United States Housing Starts Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Housing Starts using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States Housing Starts – was last predicted on Friday, June 17, 2016.
read more….
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts/forecast

Builder Confidence Rises in June | Bedford Hills Real Estate

After holding steady for the past four months, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes rose two points in June to a level of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This marks the highest reading since January 2016.

HMI_June

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components posted gains in June. The component gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 64, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to 70, and the component measuring buyer traffic climbed three points to 47.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/06/builder-confidence-rises-in-june/

Rent rose at the fastest monthly pace since 2007 | Bedford Real Estate

Rent rose at the fastest monthly pace since 2007 last month, a reminder that one of the biggest expenses for most Americans isn’t easing up.

In May, rent was 3.8% higher than a year ago, the strongest 12-month rate of increase since 2008, the Labor Department said in its consumer price index report Thursday. The monthly rise was 0.4%.
It’s not only the strongest pace of growth in many years, it’s also much higher than pay increases. Inflation-adjusted hourly wages were up 1.4% in the twelve months ending in May.

Many factors are keeping the pressure on rents. The housing market is suffering from a lack of inventory. Home builders pulled back when the bubble burst, and many homeowners are reluctant to try to sell. More people of all ages and income levels are going to rent their home rather than buy, analysts believe.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rent-rose-at-the-fastest-pace-in-more-than-9-years-in-may-2016-06-16?siteid=bnbh

Mortgage rates drop to 3.54% | Pound Ridge Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates declining for the second consecutive week.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.54 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending June 16, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.60 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.00 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.81 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.87 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.23 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.74 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.00.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 10-year Treasury yield continued its free fall this week as global risks and expectations for the Fed’s June meeting drove investors to the safety of government bonds. The 30-year mortgage rate responded by falling 6 basis points for the second straight week to 3.54 percent — yet another low for 2016. Wednesday’s Fed decision to once again stand pat on rates, as well as growing anticipation of the U.K.’s upcoming European Union referendum will make it difficult for Treasury yields and — more importantly — mortgage rates to substantially rise in the upcoming weeks.”

Mortgage rates average 3.66% | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates up slightly from last week, but still near three year lows.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.66 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending June 2, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 3.64 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.87 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.92 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.89 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.08 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.88 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.87 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.96 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Since jumping 11 basis points on May 18th, the 10-year Treasury yield has leveled-off around 1.85 percent. Mortgage rates continue to adjust to this new level with the 30-year fixed rate inching up another 2 basis points this week to 3.66 percent. Recent statements by the Fed appear to have persuaded the market that a rate hike may come sooner than later. However, the market is fickle, and Friday’s employment report has the potential to swing opinion 180 degrees in the other direction.