Monthly Archives: October 2015

U.S. Housing Market Recovery Remains on Track | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released its updated Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®) showing the U.S. housing market continuing to slowly stabilize with two additional metro areas entering their outer range of stable housing activity: Scranton and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The national MiMi value stands at 81.2, indicating a housing market that is on its outer range of stable housing activity, while showing an improvement of +0.27% from July to August and a three-month improvement of +2.54%. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value has improved +6.16%. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 37%, but remains significantly off from its high of 121.7.

News Facts:

  • Twenty-nine of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi values in a stable range, with North Dakota (96.9), District of Columbia (103.9), Hawaii (93.5), Montana (93.2), and Utah (90.3) ranking in the top five.
  • Forty-seven of the 100 metro areas have MiMi values in a stable range, with Fresno (99.4), Austin (96.6), Honolulu (94.1), Salt Lake City (93.3) and Los Angeles (93) ranking in the top five.
  • The most improving states month-over-month were Ohio (+1.30%), South Carolina (+1.20%), New Jersey (+0.97%), Colorado (+0.92%) and Georgia (+0.83%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving states were Florida (+14.07%), Oregon (+12.02%), Nevada (11.75%), Colorado (+11.28%), and Washington (+10.41%).
  • The most improving metro areas month-over-month were Akron, OH (+1.47%), Palm Bay, FL (+1.28%), Cleveland, OH (+1.27%), Lakeland, FL (+1.26%) and Denver, CO (+1.21%). On a year-over-year basis, the most improving metro areas were Orlando, FL (+18.07%), Cape Coral, FL (+17.77%), Tampa, FL (+16.00%), Denver, CO (14.73) and Palm Bay, FL (+14.64%).
  • In August, 48 of the 50 states and 98 of the top 100 metros were showing an improving three month trend. The same time last year, 35 of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and 71 of the top 100 metro areas were showing an improving three-month trend.

Quote attributable to Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer:

“The nation’s housing market continues to improve riding the wave of the best year in home sales since 2007. With the MiMi purchase applications indicator at its highest level in more than seven years we expect home sales to remain strong. Low mortgage rates are fueling the recovery across the country. Places like Denver, Austin and Salt Lake City, and most markets in California, are seeing robust home purchase demand and in many cases double-digit growth over last year.”

“Buoyed by strong employment growth, housing supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, which is driving house prices higher. Fortunately, low mortgage interest rates are helping to keep homebuying affordable for some prospective homebuyers. Nationwide, housing markets are getting back to their long term benchmark averages, but they still have room for improvement. We’re expecting housing to sustain its momentum going into yearend, but we’re going to need stronger income growth to carry housing throughout 2016.”

 

 

 

 

Move up Buyers Move the Housing Markets | Bedford Real Estate

Move up Buyers Move the Housing Markets

Purchases by current homeowners helped bolster home prices in August, according to results from the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey.

“Current homeowner purchases are supporting the housing market,” said Tom Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys. “Metrics such as the sales-to-list price ratio show a strong housing market, particularly in western states. Nonetheless, forward-looking commentary from real estate agents may indicate some softening in the future.”

The market share for current homebuyers surged in the summer while the first-time homebuyer share declined. Current homeowners accounted for 49.3% of purchases in August, based on a three-month moving average after hitting a 12-month low of 44.9% in March.

The first-time homebuyer share was 38.3% in May – a level not seen since 2010. But higher home prices and seasonal patterns combined to push the first-time buyer share down to 36.4% in August. The investor share of home purchases has also fallen from 18.7% in March to 14.4% in August. NAR’s Realtor Confidence Index reported a 32 percent share for first-timers in August, up from 28 percent in July.

2015-09-25_10-10-31Source: NAR’s Realtor Confidence Report, August 2015

The sales-to-list price ratio for non-distressed properties declined modestly in August (to 98.3%) compared with the previous month (98.5%) but remained above the level seen in August 2014 (97.5%). All three states on the west coast maintained sales-to-list price ratios above 100% in August, led by California at 102.2%.

The median existing–home price for all housing types in August was $228,700, which is 4.7 percent above August 2014 ($218,400). August’s price increase marks the 42nd consecutive month of year–over–year gains.

The average time on market for non-distressed properties continued to decline in August, hitting 7.9 weeks compared with an average of 8.2 weeks the previous month and 8.6 weeks in August 2014. Non-distressed properties sold in the Pacific Northwest in August were on the market for an average of 4.5 weeks. NAR reported that properties typically stayed on the market for 47 days in August, an increase from 42 days in July but below the 53 days in August 2014. Forty percent of homes sold in August were on the market for less than a month.

Meanwhile, the proportion of distressed properties started to level off. Real estate owned properties and short sales accounted for 16.6% of sales in August compared with a 16.8% share the previous month. In August 2014, distressed properties accounted for 21.7% of home sales.

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/move-up-buyers-move-the-housing-markets/

Home Prices: The Tilting of America | Pound Ridge Real Estate

The chart below from Case-Shiller’s release today of its July data says it all.  Prices now are shifting a lot on a monthly basis.  The range between appreciating and depreciating markets seems to be growing and no longer do the “sand” states, judicial foreclosure states or foreclosure states or cities with the best economies and most jobs.

Rather, with the possible exceptions of Cleveland and Boston, appreciating markets are to be found west of the Mississippi and depreciating ones to the east, as if America were a great raft at sea with too much weight on one end.

These are seasonally adjusted month-over-month increases and they are particularly important because both seasonally adjusted existing sales and pending sales dropped unexpectedly in August, according to NAR.  Like Case-Shiller, NAR found annualized prices in the West (7.1%) much higher than the East (2.4%)2015-09-29_13-30-14

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/home-prices-the-tilting-of-america/

Forecasted Values in 17 Top Markets on Weiss Maps | Chappaqua Real Estate

Here are 17 digital maps from the 100 million house database created by Allan Weiss, former CEO of Case Shiller Weiss.  Each house is a repeat sales index, which enables each index to anticipate values accurately up to 12 months in the future.

The colors represent month-over-month trends.  Red indicates depreciation, green appreciation and gray neutral.

A full set of 90 metros and 5500 Zip codes can be found on Weissindex.com and Owners.com.  Dynamic maps on the sites begin in 2006 and show changing values a month at a time.

Copyright Weiss Residential Research LLC. Provided by Owners.com.  Forecasted values have a margin of error of 3 ½ percent.

 

Atlanta July 2016

Atlanta

Chicago July 2016

chicag

Cleveland July 2016

cleveland

Denver July 2016

Denver

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/09/weiss-forecast-maps-of-top-markets/

Student Debt Is a Bigger Barrier to Homeownership than ever | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Student loan debt continues to grow as an obstacle in a consumer’s ability to buy a home, as 57 percent of 2015 respondents who acknowledge having student loans said this debt was either “very much” or “somewhat” of an obstacle, compared to 49 percent of 2014 respondents, according to the third annual America at Home survey from NeighborWorks America.

The survey found that generally levels of student debt among adults have not changed greatly in the past year.  The percent that personally has any student debt stayed the same, at 17 percent of the national sample.  The percentage that worries about their student debt they owe either all of the time or some of the time also stayed constant, at 30 percent.

When it comes to their ability to buy a home, however, the survey found that student debt has grown to be an even greater barrier to homeownership now than it was a year ago.  One out of four participants in the survey (25%) said student is “very much of an obstacle” to buying a home, compared to 20 percent a year ago and 32 percent said it is “somewhat of an obstacle” compared to 29 percent a year ago. The percent of adults who said they who has had to delay the purchase of a home because of their student loan debt increased from 24 to 28 percent over the past 12 months.

Additionally, although mortgage rates remain historically low, a generally steady rise in home prices is outpacing income growth, leading homebuyers — especially first-time buyers — to search for ways to build up a down payment. However, nearly 40 percent of respondents have received “nothing at all” in terms of information about down payment assistance programs for middle-income homebuyers, programs that could provide thousands of dollars to help bridge a savings gap.

Finally, the housing market is being pressured by changing demographics. Of the respondents surveyed, 43 percent planned to purchase a home when they “got married or moved in with a life partner.” This is important for the housing market’s rebound, because the median age at first marriage has increased to 29.3 for men and 27.0 for women, according to the Census Bureau, up from 26.8 and 25.1 years, respectively in 2000.

“It’s clear the housing market is directly affected by many factors, and these forces identified in our survey are putting strong downward pressure on growth,” said Paul Weech, president and CEO of NeighborWorks America. “While NeighborWorks can’t address the demographic shift, we are increasing our efforts to support nonprofits that offer homebuyer education and financial capability coaching.”

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/10/student-debt-is-a-bigger-barrier-to-homeownership-than-ever/

TRID and Title: Is Shopping Really an Option? | North Salem Real Estate

In 2005 five companies controlled about 92 percent of the national market for title insurance.  Ten years later, only four title insurers now control 86.9 percent of the title insurance business.  In all but five states, only five companies account for 80 percent of more of premiums paid.

Despite the introduction of online insurerers a federal policies encouraging consumers to shop around, the $12 billion a year title industry looks pretty much the same as it did decades ago.

Will TRID centralize control of the title industry even more or will it initiate a disruption of the status quo?

A stinging 2007 study by the General Accountability Office led to an effort to encourage real shopping by consumers, but failed miserably.  Beginning in 2010, lenders were required to provide applicants estimates for all closing services costs, including title, when each loan application was received.  They were called Good Faith Estimates because lenders are required by law to be “within range” of the final settlement fees.

The idea was to give consumers time to shop for themselves to see if they could find a title company who do as well for less than the one the lender proposed.  Consumers got interested when a widely publicized February 2011 survey commissioned by Federal Title & Escrow Co. in Washington, D.C., showed homebuyers could save as much as $1,180 by shopping for title services.

Save 35 percent

About the same time, a new breed of title insurance company entered the market, promising discounts on a type of policy many home buyers don’t even realize they need: title insurance. When it launched its web platform for closing services in 2008, Entitle Direct took a page from the Geico model and offered savings of 35 percent by selling title insurance directly to the consumer and cutting out the commission-based title agent.  Other direct insurers include OneTitle is a New-York based company that offers savings of 10% on title insurance and Title Forward, a new entrant from Redfin.

“Many consumers are unaware that they have the right to shop around for a lower insurance premium rate and choose their title insurance company,” said Timothy O’Dwyer, CEO of Entitle Direct at the time. “The Internet provides a good starting point for shopping. Search for title insurance or go to one of the sites designed to help with the process.”

Yet seven years later, Entitle ranks only 14th among the industry’s 27 independent companies who collectively did only 12 percent as much business as the four “families” of companies that dominate the business—Fidelity, First American, Old Republic and Stewart.

After five years, GRE’s seemed to make little difference to the industry or consumers.  Why didn’t consumers shop for title services?

“I think it was simply too intimidating for consumers,” said Holden Lewis, assistant managing editor/mortgage analyst at Bankrate.  He tells the story of his wife doing the research to find a title insurer. “She actually called the title company and got a quote.  But you know, she was in the dark in just making that call and knowing who to ask for.  It’s hard.  She got it done but it wasn’t easy.  It was an intimidating process, so I think that just knowing how to shop is the main roadblock.  The consumer is going to say ‘the lender already did this for and whom I to think I can do any better.  I don’t know who to call anyway.”

Four days to shop

TRID changes the process.  It provides consumers with forms that are easier to understand and an accounting how their closing dollars were actually spent, but it also speeds up the timeline for consumers to act.

 

read more…

 

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/10/trid-and-title-is-shopping-an-really-an-option/

CoreLogic: Foreclosures down more than 25% since August 2014 | Armonk Real Estate

The national foreclosure inventory declined by 25.2% and completed foreclosures declined by 20.1% compared with August 2014, according to the latest report fromCoreLogic.

The number of foreclosures nationwide decreased year over year from 46,000 in August 2014 to 36,000 in August 2015, representing a decrease of 68.9% from the peak of 117,357 completed foreclosures in September 2010.

“Mortgage performance continues to improve, however there is a dichotomy between the performance of recently originated loans and legacy loans. Newly delinquent loans are at the lowest rates during the last two decades. That reflects the tight underwriting and improved economy during the last few years,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “However, the foreclosure pipeline of legacy loans remains elevated. Over the last 12 months, there have been 500,000 completed foreclosures, more than double the number during normal periods.”

Click to enlarge

(Source: CoreLogic)

Completed foreclosures reflect the total number of homes lost to foreclosure. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 5.9 million completed foreclosures across the country, and since homeownership rates peaked in the second quarter of 2004, there have been nearly 8 million homes lost to foreclosure.

As of August 2015, the national foreclosure inventory included approximately 470,000, or 1.2%, of all homes with a mortgage compared with 629,000 homes, or 1.6%, in August 2014.

CoreLogic also reports that the number of mortgages in serious delinquency (defined as 90 days or more past due, including those loans in foreclosure or REO) declined by 20.7% from August 2014 to August 2015 with 1.3 million mortgages, or 3.5%, in this category. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since January 2008. The foreclosure rate (defined as the share of all loans in the foreclosure process) was at 1.2% as of August 2015, which is back to January 2008 levels.

“In August, the housing market experienced solid and steady increases in sales, prices and performance and our preview data indicates those trends will continue in September,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Longer term, the recent increase in household formations and rapidly improving labor market for millennials will provide a demographic tailwind to the housing market and keep demand firm.”

 

read more…

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/35329-corelogic-foreclosures-down-more-than-25-since-august-2014?eid=311691494&bid=1202967

Secondary Real-Estate Markets Are Moving Up | Waccabuc Real Estate

Move over Houston, make way for Dallas-Fort Worth — and a host of other up-and-coming secondary markets such as Charlotte, N.C., Seattle, Atlanta, Denver, Nashville, Tenn., and Portland, Ore.

That’s the conclusion of real-estate professionals who were asked about their views on the best markets for property investment and development in 2016.

The survey was conducted by the Urban Land Institute and PcW and released this week at the ULI’s fall meeting in San Francisco.

Houston was the No. 1 pick in last year’s survey on markets to watch in 2015, but it sunk to No. 23 in the latest survey for 2016 expectations, amid worries about the impact of prolonged low oil prices on the energy capital’s local economy.

In its decline, Houston was in distinguished company: Also not making the top-10 list were major gateway cities of New York, Boston and Washington, D.C., which have been losing favor with real-estate professionals in recent years.

Sixth-place Denver, also known as an energy market, “is more diversified (than Houston) and seems to be chugging right through” the low-price oil environment, said Ben Breslau, managing director of Americas Research at commercial real-estate firm JLL (NYSE:JLL), during a ULI conference panel. He noted that 5 million to 6 million square feet of commercial space hit the market this year in Houston as rents trended down.

Another panelist, Kenneth Rosen, chairman of Rosen Consulting Group, said the energy belt has a “digestive issue” and warned investors to avoid Houston.

Read More: http://news.investors.com/business-inside-real-estate/100815-774729-secondary-real-estate-markets-emerging.htm#ixzz3o6RKZeaH

Housing: A Near-term Pullback in Home Sales Is Likely | South Salem Real Estate

This week’s housing news revealed the latest data on two leading indicators of home sales, both of which point to additional retrenchment in existing home sales in the near-term.

Pending home sales dropped in August, marking the second decline over the past three months. Combined with the second consecutive drop in average monthly purchase applications in August, existing home sales will likely soften further after posting a 4.8 percent drop in August from an expansion-high pace in July.

Our forecast that 2015 total home sales will be the strongest since 2007 remains on target, however. While purchase applications dropped during the final week of September, average applications for the entire month rose for the first time in three months and are about 23 percent and 8 percent higher than during the same period in 2014 and 2013, respectively. Low mortgage rates will remain supportive for the housing market.

The Freddie Mac survey’s average yield on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ticked down to 3.85 percent, staying below 4.0 percent for the tenth consecutive week. Home price trends continue to be strong.

The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index showed solid year-over-year appreciation in July, albeit at a more moderate pace than other main measures of home prices reported earlier. Strong housing demand during the summer season, lean inventories, and fewer distressed sales helped boost home prices.

The August construction spending report suggests that real residential investment will likely post solid growth this quarter, though not as strong as the 9.4 percent annualized pace recorded for the second quarter.

 The National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Index, which records contract signings of existing homes and typically leads closings by one to two months, dropped 1.4 percent to 109.4 in August, the lowest level since March. Pending sales are 6.1 percent above the level a year ago, the smallest year-over-year gain since November 2014. Pending sales dropped in the Northeast, Midwest and South, with the largest decline occurring in the Northeast. The West was the only region that saw a rise in pending sales.

 Private residential construction spending advanced 1.3 percent in August from the prior month, according to the Census Bureau. Spending on new single-family homes rose 0.7 percent, compared with a 4.8 percent jump for multifamily spending. Data for the prior two months were revised lower. Spending for home improvement increased 0.7 percent. From a year ago, new single-family and multifamily construction spending increased 14.0 percent and 24.7 percent, respectively.

 The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city Composite Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) rose 0.6 percent in July. From a year ago, the index increased 5.0 percent, a slight pickup from 4.9 percent pace of the prior month. Of the 20 cities, San Francisco, Denver, and Dallas posted the largest year-over-year increases, while New York City, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. saw the smallest gains. The pace of increase for the national index also firmed slightly in July, posting a 4.7 percent year-over-year gain, compared with a 4.5 percent gain in June. Other measures of home prices, including the FHFA purchase-only index and the CoreLogic index, also showed a pickup in year-over-year increases in July.

 

Read more… fanniemae.com

Mortgage rates drop to 3.76% | Cross River Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates following Treasury yields lower following a more than disappointing September jobs report. This continues to keep average rates below four percent for the 11thconsecutive week, including the 15-year fixed falling below 3 percent once again for the first time since April of this year.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.76 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending October 8, 2015, down from last week when it averaged 3.85 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.19 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.99 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.07 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.36 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.88 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from 2.91 percent last week. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.06 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.55 percent this week with an average 0.2 point, up from 2.53 percent last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.42 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for theRegional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Calling the September jobs report disappointing is an understatement. The sputtering U.S. economy added only 142,000 jobs. To make matters worse, there were downward revisions to the prior two months. Hourly wages were flat, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.4 percent, the lowest rate since 1977. In response, Treasury yields dipped below 2 percent triggering a 9 basis point tumble in the 30-year mortgage rate to 3.76 percent.”