Daily Archives: January 5, 2015

November Sales Lay an Egg | North Salem Real Estate

Just as the housing industry was preparing to celebrate the first year in a decade when sales progressed at a relatively moderate pace and experts from coast to coast were heralding a return to normalcy, November existing home sales laid the biggest egg in four years.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million in November from a downwardly-revised 5.25 million in October. Sales dropped to their lowest annual pace since May (4.91 million) but are above year-over-year levels (up 2.1 percent from last November) for the second straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors.

If November’s anemic showing is repeated in December, the real estate industry will see sales end the year below the symbolic 5 million mark, a serious sign that the recovering is faltering. Last year sales reached a total 5.09 million units, which was 9.1 percent higher than 2012. It was the strongest performance since 2006 when sales reached an unsustainably high 6.48 million sales were the highest since 2006, and median prices maintained strong growth, after rising 1 percent over November.

NAR characterized November’s performance as “losing momentum” and NAR Chief Economist Lawrence said sales activity was “choppy” throughout the country.  “Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,” he said. “The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $205,300, which is 5.0 percent above November 2013. This marks the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 6.7 percent to 2.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace – unchanged from last month. Despite the tightening in supply, unsold inventory remains 2.0 percent higher than a year ago, when there were 2.05 million existing homes available for sale.

All-cash sales were 25 percent of transactions in November, down from 27 percent in October and 32 percent in November of last year.  Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 15 percent of homes in November, unchanged from last month and below November 2013 (19 percent). Sixty-one percent of investors paid cash in November.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/12/november-sales-lay-an-egg/

It was a $1.7 Trillion Year | Mt Kisco Real Estate

The good news is that America’s housing stock is now worth $27.5 trillion, an increase of $1.7 trillion over last year.  The bad news is that U.S. home values rose 6 percent year-over-year through November, the smallest annual gain since June 2013, according to Zillow’s Stan Humphries.

The aggregate value of all homes nationwide is expected to be approximately $27.5 trillion by year’s end, up more than $1.7 trillion (6.7 percent) year-over-year and the third consecutive annual increase. It is a testament to just how huge and important the housing sector is to the overall economy that gains of more than a trillion dollars in one year represents only single-digit percentages of the total market. Humphries said.

Still, as massive as the current overall value of housing is in the U.S., the aggregate value of all homes remains 6.1 percent below the Q3 2006 peak of almost $29.3 trillion. This makes sense, as the median home value nationwide is still down almost 10 percent from its pre-recession high.

But just as median home values in several local markets across the country – including Denver, Pittsburgh and a handful of Texas metros – have exceeded their prior peaks, so too have aggregate home values in a few large markets. In nine of 35 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, the total value of all homes in the area is at or above prior peak. Many of the same areas where median home values are above peak are also the same as where aggregate values are at peak, including Denver and a collection of Texas markets (Dallas, Houston and Austin).

Although home values to continue to grow, they are rising much more slowly than earlier in the year, currently at a pace last seen in mid-2013. Over the next 12 months, from November 2014 to November 2015, home values are predicted to rise 2.4 percent, to slightly less than $182,000.

Slowing home value appreciation has been driven in large part by more for-sale inventory coming on line in recent months, which is helping to bring the supply of homes in line with demand. This has been welcome news for buyers that were previously competing with each other and with cash-rich investors for a very limited number of homes. However, inventory has been drifting downward on a monthly basis for the past two months.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2014/12/it-was-a-1-7-trillion-year/

Will Low Down Payments Bring First-timers Home? | South Salem Real Estate

Suddenly More first-time buyers are buying homes.  More are making down payments even as lenders rush to sign up for the new 3 percent down programs launched by Fannie and Freddie in November.  Coincidence or can we connect the dots?

It’s too soon for the new programs to have an impact on sales, but the odds are good that when they do the first-timer spike in sales may turn into a trend.  Loosening standards, improving incomes, soaring rents–whatever the cause, as the New Year begins there’s a refreshing new wind blowing throughout housing markets coast to coast.

According to the National Association of Realtors, first-time homebuyers accounted for 31 percent of existing home sales in November (29 percent in October 2014; 28 percent in November 2013.  Initial December data indicated a pickup of purchases from first-time buyers in November, likely a result of the improving job market and the decline in interest rates to 4 percent.

Zillow predicts that first-time buyers who stayed out of the market – either for demographic reasons or because they just couldn’t find the right entry-level home – will have a breakthrough year in 2015.rding to Zillow.  Zillow’s predictions are based on data showing rents continuing to skyrocket while the for-sale market levels off. That economic reality, increased inventory, and millennials getting married and having children after delaying those choices, will give buyers more negotiating power.  In fact, Zillow predicts the millennial generation will overtake Generation X as the biggest group of home buyers in 2015.

Meanwhile the majority of first-time home buyers making a low down payment appears to be uptrend. Among first-time buyers reported to be obtaining a mortgage in the months of September through November, about 66 percent made a down payment of 6 percent or less.  This is a decline from the 77 percent figure in early 2009, but an improvement from the 61 percent figure at the beginning of 2014.  In 2014 the average down payment for first-time buyers was

On December 8, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced the acceptance of loans originated with a 3 percent down payment under certain qualification guidelines to increase credit availability to first-time buyers meeting eligibility standards. In the case of Freddie Mac, borrowers will be required to participate in a borrower education program. In the case of Fannie Mae, borrowers will still have to meet the standard eligibility underwriting requirements such as those relating to income, employment, and debt, and borrowers will be required to purchase private mortgage insurance. Borrowers making a low down payment may still face higher costs for risk adjustment (called loan level pricing adjustments) in the case of GSE-backed loans.

Within weeks, mortgage lenders—all non-banks—began lining up to announce they were going to participate.

First out of the box to sign up for FHFA program were 360 Mortgage Group and ditech, both with 97% LTV into their product offerings.   Guardian Mortgage Company, Citywide Financial in San Diego, Houston lender AMCAP Mortgage and Michigan-based United Wholesale Mortgage were among of the first to announce they would participate in the GSE programs.

Meanwhile, before the details were even announced, Bank of America came out saying that it does not plan on easing its mortgage standards or offering 3% down mortgages, despite regulators seeking to expand lending.  Wells Fargo said it is currently in the process of examining the new product.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/01/connecting-the-dots-are-low-down-payments-bringing-first-timers-home/

 

 

Housing Share of GDP at 15.2% for Third Quarter | Waccabuc Real Estate

Economic growth in the third quarter was certainly good news for housing and the overall economy. The final estimate of GDP growth from the BEA was a 5% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, up from 3.5% and 3.9% in the first and second estimates respectively.

As of the third quarter of 2014, housing’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) was 15.24%, with home building and remodeling yielding 3.08 percentage points of that total.

housing share of GDP_3q14

Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.

The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building and remodeling contribution to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees. For the second quarter, RFI was 3.08% of the economy.

The RFI component reached a $500 billion annualized pace during the second quarter. This is the second highest quarterly total for RFI since the middle of 2008.

The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services, which includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach because without this measure increases in homeownership would result in declines for GDP. For the second quarter, housing services was 12.16% of the economy.

Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/01/housing-share-of-gdp-at-15-2-for-third-quarter/

 

Gorgeous Brooklyn Heights Townhouse Wants $7.2 Million | Cross River Real Estate

First up is this beautiful brick townhouse in Brooklyn Heights. The house was built in 1849 and there’s a ton of historic details, plus an elevator, 12′ ceilings, and bay windows overlooking a garden designed by landscape architect Alice Ireys. The place is 25′-wide and has around 6,500 square feet of living space. It’s asking $7.2 million.

↑ Over in Williamsburg, this three-story townhouse is asking $4.3 million. The place was built in 1890 and was gut-renovated 13 years ago. It’s currently configured for multiple families but it can be converted into a single-family home quite easily.

↑ This four-unit, two-story investment property in Weeksville is asking $1.495 million. The place is fully-rented and offers an income of $8,400/month. It has a two-car garage, separate boilers, hardwood flooring, and a coin operated laundry.

 

 

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http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2015/01/04/gorgeous_brooklyn_heights_townhouse_wants_72_million.php

Your January Home Checklist | Katonah Real Estate

 

With the shortest days (and longest nights) of the year, midwinter can certainly live up to its bleak reputation— but this season also encourages slowing down, simplifying and getting cozy. This January, take advantage of the momentum a new year brings to clear out clutter, start a healthy habit and make plans for the year ahead. Here are 15 ideas for a refreshed and revived home.