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With so many fists beating on the housing-is-facing-ruin door, Altos Research is set to release data that claims all that pounding is in vain.
Clients will begin receiving a report Wednesday afternoon, but HousingWire was able to get a sneak peek, and the results say that housing recovery critics are wrong about housing. According to Altos, it’s going to soar in 2015.
“While we see signs of demand easing, we are significantly more bullish on housing than many of the recent headlines seem to suggest,” said Altos CEO Michael Simonsen. “Based on our models, we’re forecasting another year of home price appreciation, with a 7% home price increase for the year of 2015.”
Single-digit appreciation is a remarkable prediction. Many other experts anticipate depreciation in the nation’s housing market, so the Altos call is relatively noteworthy.
What’s driving the negative stand most of the market holds? The media is partially to blame, the report states.
Bearish Headlines, Bullish Reality
In the section titled, “Bearish Headlines, Bullish Reality,” the researchers state their case this way:
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Continuing the long-term trend this year, mortgage applications decreased 2.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 25, 2014.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2% compared with the previous week.
“Despite mortgage backed security issuance being up 38 percent from the first quarter average, the MBA index continues to show declines. This suggests that there are fundamental shifts occurring in the market where big players (reporting to the MBA) may be giving up market share or perhaps not holding as many loans in portfolio, thereby pushing up the bond issuance,” said Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield. “In either case, the current level of activity for purchases and refinances has been directional stronger in recent months based on actual security issuance. With home prices stabilizing from a rapid level of appreciation and interest rates either falling or holding steady recently, I expect to see continued improvements in the purchase arena.”
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http://www.housingwire.com/articles/30841-mortgage-applications-continue-fall-with-22-drop