Daily Archives: January 6, 2014

Why 2013 Might be Housing’s Best Year Ever | Katonah NY Real Estate

After nearly a decade of disaster that reached levels of despair not seen since the Great Depression., the year ending today was more than a turnaround year. Within its short life, it changed housing from a liability to an asset so favorable that it had to power to take the rest of the nation’s economy along for its ride upward, in the eyes of the Bernankes and Obamas.

In some ways, it changed the housing economy for years to come. Like a human life, it’s true place in history won’t be known until it is gone and some time has passed, but it will be hard to argue with the hard numbers of what was achieved in 2013.

Some examples:
◦ Home prices are rising faster than they have since the housing boom. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property prices in 20 cities released today climbed 13.6 percent from October 2012, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2006, after a 13.3 percent increase in the year ended in September.
◦ Annual existing home sales should reach 5.1 million in 2013, the highest total in seven years, according to NAR. That is 10 percent higher than 2012’s total of almost 4.7 million.
◦ New home sales are on pace to reach 435,100 new homes sold this year, the most since 2008, according to Bloomberg. In November, purchases of new U.S. homes exceeded projections, holding near a five-year high and showing the housing recovery was gaining momentum even as mortgage rates climbed.
◦ Through the third quarter of 2013. more than 3 million homeowners returned to positive equity and homeowner equity increased by $33 billion. Some 7.1 million homes, or 14.5 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage, were still in negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2013. This figure is down from 9.6 million homes, or 19.7 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage, at the end of the first quarter of 2013, according to CoreLogic.
◦ By the end of October, homeowners in 55 of the nation’s 100 largest markets have now recovered more than half of the equity they lost in the housing crash. Of the 84 all markets that achieved more than a 100 percent rebound in November, 58 were midsize. Additionally, 58 midsize markets (28% of the U.S. midsized markets) now have fully recovered prices.
◦ Mortgage rates rose about one full point during the year, which made buying a home more expensive for many. But at long last lending standards have begun to loosen up, perhaps because many originators are shifting from refinancing to purchase loans. Median FICO scores, for example, were at 729 in November, down from 750 in November 2012. Closing rates were 53.1% compared to 52.3% in 2012.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/12/why-2013-might-be-housing%e2%80%99s-best-year-ever/

Prices to Plateau for Months? | Bedford Hills NY Homes

The price increases that drove the recovery in 2013, wiping out $232 billion in negative equity and prompting millions of owners to sell, may go out with a whimper when the new year arrives, leaving real estate markets with anemic price gains, if any, for months to come.

There is a growing consensus among economists and analysts that the recent slowdown in price increases is not just a seasonal lull, but the beginning of a plateau that could last through the late fall and winter months.

A new analysis by CoreLogic economist Molly Boesel examines the relationship between CoreLogic’s HPI index and list prices in recent months and suggests that, since the asking price for new listings has decreased over the past four months. “If the relationship between new listing prices and the HPI holds, this is an indication that the HPI will also be leveling off,” she wrote in an article released today.

In the same CoreLogic publication, CoreLogic’s deputy chief economist, Sam Khater, found that houses in lower price tiers are a barometer of the overall market. Low-end price changes and levels lead higher end prices by six months to a year. Low-end prices also are much more volatile because buyers of low-tier homes-first-time buyers, investors, and lower income repeat buyers are more sensitive to economic trends than higher end home buyers.

“Clearly lower-end homes prices are decelerating especially in the former boom-bust markets in the Southwest,” Khater wrote, “Current low-end prices are 22 percentage points above higher-end prices, the biggest gap during the past two decades. This indicates that the low-end price corrections over and that overall price growth will be markedly slower heading into 2014.”

The latest price reports on November from realtor.com based on its listings show prices declined 0.7 from to a 6.9 percent year over year price increase. Trulia reported asking home prices rose 1.0 percent month-over-month, the greatest monthly increase in five months. . Clear Capital reported home prices cooled off to a 10.8% year-over-year growth, a slight tapering over the previous quarter’s 11.0% yearly growth. The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to remain at the same level month over month as October 2013, with a projected increase of 12.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2012. Excluding distressed sales, November 2013 home prices are poised to rise just 0.4 percent month over month from October 2013 and 11.3 percent year over year from November 2012.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/12/prices-to-plateau-for-months/

Four Big Things in Real Estate That WONT Happen in 2014 | Pound Ridge NY Real Estate

If your inbox is like mine, it’s chock full of predictions and forecasts for 2014. If recent history is any guide, a sizable percentage of them won’t come true-perhaps that’s a result of living in extraordinary times. However, here are some things that you can be certain won’t happen again in the year ahead.

1. Inventory shortages like the one last year are history.

Unusually conditions came together last year to create a real estate perfect storm. Millions of potential sellers underwater on their mortgages when the season began. Millions more were in positive territory by prices hadn’t risen enough to generate enough profit to move. Four million houses once owned by families are no longer on the market; they’re now single family rentals. Couple that with a generation of first-time buyers scared stiff by reports of soaring prices and rates and you got a recipe for a real estate pandemonium, which happened in some Northern California markets.

Not a chance of a repeat in 2014. Rising values pushed another 30 percent of homeowners above the surface last year. They are continuing to rise even as inventories are normalizing, though not as quickly. Markets across the nation have returned to better balance between supply and demand.

2. If interest rates dip below 3.5 percent, its time to move to China.

Rates on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage bottomed out a year ago below 3.5 percent and they remained low through the first of this year despite widespread predictions from the Mortgage Bankers Association on up that higher rates were right around the corner. A crappy economy kept folks guessing until June, when the cork popped out of the bottle and rates blew above 4 percent.

With the economy starting to return to life and the Fed talking about tapering, not if but when, it’s pretty obvious that rates aren’t going back and the 3 percent days are a thing of the past, unless we hit a depression. The question to ask today is not if rates will rise, but how far and how fast.

3. Discounted deals on distressed sales are a thing of the past in the sand states, except for Florida.

The guys who hang out at auctions in Phoenix and Vegas long ago said goodbye to the big discounts on forecloses that made rehabbing and flipping almost a no brainer. The hedge funds got the blame but the real culprit was tight lender standards. No more toxic loans, no more toxic foreclosures. In 2014, however, it will still be possible to do some flipping in places like Jersey City, Albany, Columbus O, and Baltimore where judicial state laws extend the foreclosure pain on homeowners and lenders alike. As for Florida, please email me if you understand the Florida foreclosure picture. I think only Jack McCabe can explain it to the rest of the nation.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/12/four-big-things-in-real-estate-that-wont-happen-in-2014/

Big Investors Target Pricey Neighborhoods | Bedford NY Real Estate

Hedge funds and other large investors do much better by buying up rentals in higher rather than lower income neighborhoods, according to a new report sponsored by RealtyTrac. The preference for pricey may be contributing to the deterioration and loss of low-cost rental housing, labeled grave concerns by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.

At first glance rental yields appear to favor lower income, or “core,” neighborhoods, when credit issues. Delinquency rates, eviction costs and collection times are factored on, investors make more money by owning and managing properties in upper square income areas.

Both price per square foot and rent per foot increased faster in the premium areas in the year ending July 2013, possibly due the slightly better affordability metrics demonstrated in the premium areas as well as some recent evidence of better credit availability for those areas, the analysis found.

Not only are investors doing better with rentals in pricier neighborhoods, the gap is growing with the housing recovery. The average price per square foot of premium homes, defined as those with a purchase price of $300,000 or more is increasing at a faster pace than the average price per square foot of a core home, giving investors a better prospect of a long-term return at the end of their holding period, even though in the short term the yields may be smaller on the premium homes, the study said.

Rents on premium homes are also showing some increase even while rents on core homes are flat lining.

Meanwhile, a recent study by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies reported that the new, well-funded investors are concentrating on a few select markets.

“Although small-scale investors have traditionally owned the vast majority of single-family rentals, large investment pools began to buy up foreclosed homes after the housing crash to manage the properties as rentals. The largest of the group amassed portfolios of 10,000-20,000 homes, many of them concentrated in a few select markets,: the report said.

At the same, loss of rental homes in lower income neighborhoods is a critical issue making housing less affordable to those who can least afford it. The loss rate of housing built before 1960 is roughly 8 percent. Removal rates for single-family homes and two- to four-unit apartment buildings are also comparatively high. Fully 8.1 percent of rental units in non-metro areas were lost from the stock over the decade, compared with 5.7 percent in central cities and 4.7 percent in suburbs.

http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2013/12/big-investors-target-pricey-neighborhoods/

Top 10 Social Media Marketing Posts: This Year in Social Media | Bedford Corners Real Estate

It’s not always easy to stay up to date with social media.

Here’s what was really hot in 2013.

As you scan these articles, you’ll find great ideas you can put to use today.

Here are 10 of our most popular articles of 2013.

Top 10 Social Media Marketing Articles

#1: New Facebook Marketing Research Shows What Works: The latest research on Facebook marketing shows interesting trends and opportunities. Use this to update your Facebook marketing with the latest findings.

Read more about this research to help you improve your Facebook marketing.

#2: 10 Ways to Use Social Media to Promote an Event: Discover 10 creative ways to use social media to promote your offline and online events.

Read more about these 10 creative ways to use social media to increase your chances for a gangbuster event.

#3: How to Use Hashtags in Your Social Media Marketing: How to use hashtags in your social media marketing to create successful campaigns and maximize your exposure across all social media channels.

Read more to discover how to choose a hashtag that’s memorable and unique.

#4: 4 Ways to Use Social Media to Generate Leads: Here’s how social media for lead generation works and how you can activate your social audiences to generate leads that can affect your bottom line.

Read more on how you can activate your social audiences and generate leads that can affect your bottom line.

#5: How Your Business Can Use the New Facebook Cover Photos: Here are some examples of what you can do with your Facebook cover photo and how to leverage the new rules to boost your business.

Read more to find out how you can feature an engaging and interesting cover photo.

#6: 26 Tips to Create a Strong Social Media Content Strategy: Discover how to strengthen the impact of the content you create and generate the buzz you’re looking for.

http://www.socialmediaexaminer.com/2013-in-social-media/

US pending home sales up slightly after six-month slump | Chappaqua Real Estate

U.S. pending home sales in November ticked upward for the first time in half a year, according to National Association of Realtors data released today.

Contracts to buy previously owned homes, also known as the Pending Home Sales Index, saw a 0.2 percent month-over-month boost to 101.7. Despite this good news, the year-over-year change was a 1.6 percent decline. Economist projects that signed contracts would go up 1 percent from October, which wasn’t far off.

“Several housing indicators have improved recently and the very modest increase in pending home sales in November is a tentative sign that activity is stabilizing, or perhaps even picking up,” JPMorgan Chase economist Daniel Silver told Reuters.

All-cash buyers accounted for 42 percent of the nearly 500,000 U.S. home purchases last month, according to RealtyTrac, as reported last week. That figure is the highest seen since RealtyTrac began tracking all-cash purchases in 2011

http://therealdeal.com/blog/2013/12/30/us-pending-home-sales-up-slightly-after-six-month-slump/

Manhattan apartment market closes out crazy year with record-smashing quarter | Armonk Homes

We’ve said it before, but now we can say it definitively: 2013 was a banner year for real estate, particularly for high-end residential sales. In fact, so many real estate records were smashed in the fourth quarter, according to reports released today by the city’s biggest residential brokerages, that data wonk Jonathan Miller said it was hard to count them all.

The last three months of 2013 had the most sales of any fourth quarter since Miller began compiling the data 25 years ago, according to the report that his appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, prepared for Douglas Elliman. Median condominium sale prices and inventory were also at a record high and low, respectively, Miller said.

“The fourth quarter is usually the weakest,” he said. “But we have a lot of records going on this quarter. It’s a bit of an anomaly.”

In the fourth quarter, 3,297 apartment transactions closed in Manhattan, a 26 percent increase over the same period in 2012, and the median condo sale price hit $1.32 million, up 14.3 percent from $1.13 million this time last year, the Elliman data show. Part of the reason for the spike was that larger units sold, Miller said.

The overall median sale price was $855,000, up 2 percent from a year ago.

The median cost for a one-bedroom condo was $891,000 last quarter, up 9.19 percent from $816,000 last year at this time, whereas two-bedrooms ticked in at a median of $1.83 million, up 12.2 percent from $1.63 million, according to Town Residential’s fourth quarter report. Three-bedroom condos hit $3.22 million, up 3.8 percent from $3.1 million year-over-year.

Co-op prices were up 4.6 percent year-over-year, to a median sale price of $680,000 in the fourth quarter, according to Elliman’s data.

And according to Halstead Property, new development sale prices in the last quarter averaged $1,562 per square foot, up a whopping 26 percent from 2012’s average, about $1,230 per square foot – another record. (Halstead shares data with sister brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.)

http://therealdeal.com/blog/2014/01/03/manhattan-apartment-market-closes-out-crazy-year-with-record-smashing-quarter/