Daily Archives: October 25, 2012

Hamptons Home Prices Fall as Buyers Seek Cheaper Retreats | Armonk NY Real Estate

Home prices in New York’s Hamptons, the Long Island oceanside retreat for summering Manhattanites, declined in the third quarter as mortgage rates near record lows focused buyer attention on cheaper properties.

The median price of homes that sold in the period fell 10 percent from a year earlier to $765,000, according to a report today by New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. In the Hamptons and North Fork, the median for luxury properties, defined as the top 10 percent of all sales, fell 23 percent to $4.23 million. About 63 percent of luxury deals were for properties under $5 million.

“Multimillion-dollar properties, that’s the brand of the Hamptons,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. “But there’s an expansion to that, so its not as one- dimensional as it was during the peak.”

Property prices that are 30 percent below their 2007 peak have drawn new buyers to the second-home market in the Hamptons, according to Miller. Homes priced at less than $1 million, which draw buyers who rely on mortgages, accounted for 70 percent of sales in the quarter as borrowing costs approached all-time lows, he said.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed U.S. home loan fell to a record-low 3.36 percent earlier this month, according to McLean, Virginia-based mortgage-financier Freddie Mac.

‘Unprecedented Opportunity’

“If you look at monthly payments on mortgages, the prices have become very competitive with rental prices,” said Terry Thompson, a Southampton-based broker with Prudential Douglas Elliman. “Low interest rates and lower-priced homes are giving renters an unprecedented opportunity to own versus rent.”

Thompson helped Gennaro Vendome and his wife, Carol, find a four-bedroom home in Hampton Bays for $490,000, a 4.9 percent discount from its original asking price, after they decided to sell the Montauk property that they owned since 2005 and move further west. They chose Hampton Bays after Thompson found a place in the town for their daughter’s in-laws for $615,000.

The Manhattan couple had been searching for a new second home in a town that was closer to the city and offered amenities such as movie theaters within a shorter drive, according to Gennaro Vendome. The trade was well-timed, he said. The couple sold the Montauk home for a profit and completed the new transaction with cash.

“There are some real great deals out there, great homes,” said Vendome, 66, a real estate investor who owns apartment properties in Manhattan and Queens. “The home we got, I would say in the pre-banking collapse days, that would be close to a million-dollar home.”

Stable Investment

Brown Harris Stevens, which also released a report on the Hamptons today, said the number of homes sold for less than $1 million in the quarter increased 25 percent from a year earlier. The surge pushed down the median price of single-family properties that changed hands in the period to $850,000, a 6 percent drop from the third quarter of 2011, according to the brokerage.

“There’s a lot of people worried about Wall Street,” said Gregory Heym, chief economist for New York-based Brown Harris Stevens. “Bond yields are at record lows, and people look to real estate to provide both the stability and a higher rate of return.”

Sellers Wait

The number of Hamptons homes on the market declined 16 percent from a year earlier to 1,302 as owners refrained from listing their properties, Miller said. The absorption rate, or amount of time it would take to sell all the listed homes at the current pace of deals, was 9.6 months, down from 11.7 months a year earlier.

“Sellers become buyers, and if they can’t trade up, they wait,” Miller said.

With the Federal Reserve signaling it will keep borrowing costs low through 2015, sellers aren’t in a rush to capitalize on rising buyer demand, he said.

“The sense of urgency has been removed,” Miller said. “Sellers aren’t worried that they’re going to miss the market.”

In the East Hampton area, purchases climbed 14 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to a report this month by brokerage Town & Country Real Estate. The combined dollar value of the 48 homes that sold jumped 36 percent from a year earlier to $71.5 million, while the median price fell 16 percent to $712,500.

In Bridgehampton, purchases climbed 23 percent to 32 deals, while the median price fell 34 percent to $1.63 million, Town & Country said. Those figures also include the areas of Water Mill and Sagaponack.

To contact the reporter on this story: Oshrat Carmiel in New York at ocarmiel1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kara Wetzel at kwetzel@bloomberg.net

Painting Your Counter tops for a New Look | Chappaqua Homes

Whether you’re the type who anxiously waits for Sherwin Williams and Pantone to release the latest palettes each year or are merely tired of the ’70s hue that dominates your vanity top, painting over a laminate counter is a relatively inexpensive and simple way to change up the color in your bathroom. Just plan carefully, from the paint selection at the start to the three weeks of curing at the end, says Stephen Ingerson, color specialist for Hirschfield’s, Inc., a full-service decorating center based in Minneapolis.

“Your color choice is so wide open, but remember it will need to coordinate with the wall color, floor and accessories, without necessarily matching it,” says Ingerson. “Take a look at what’s going on with the newest laminates to get an idea of color trends you can approximate with paint.”

Also consider how long the color will need to work with your bathroom decor. “A color like bright blue is fine if you’re just looking for a temporary fix and intend to buy new laminate or a solid surface to replace it in a year,” says Ingerson, whose company is also the largest manufacturer of trade sales paint in Minnesota. “But usually you need to think about color that will still look good if you don’t change anything for a long time. Just think of all those rose and light blue counters that are still around from the ’70s.”

And since the counter is so large and so close to the bathroom mirror, its color should be good with your coloring — nothing that makes you look sickly and nothing so bright you can’t look at it for long. “Most important, it should be something that you want to see when you first get up in the morning,” says Ingerson.

Once you find a color that meets all those criteria, follow these steps for a high-quality paint job:

 

  1. Clean the countertop with warm soap and water and dry it with a soft cloth.

     

  2. Lightly sand the counter with 150-grit sandpaper and wipe off any dust with a damp cloth.

     

  3. Prime the entire surface with 100 percent acrylic primer. “You want a flash-bond primer, one that will stick to the laminate and that will allow paint to stick to it,” says Ingerson, who suggests XIM primer, Benjamin Morris Fresh Start, Bullseye 1-2-3 or any other high-quality primer that says on the label it’s intended to cover gloss or high-gloss surfaces.

     

  4. Let the first coat of primer dry and then apply a second.

     

  5. When the second coat of primer is dry, paint over it with a couple of coats of latex satin or semi-gloss enamel, allowing each coat to dry before painting another.

     

  6. After the finish coat is dry, seal it with a couple of coats of clear acrylic. “Make sure to use satin or semi-gloss, because the higher the shine in the acrylic, the stronger it is and the more protection it offers against scratches and wear,” says Ingerson. “Avoid egg shell or flat paint.”

The acrylic seal will dry quickly, says Ingerson, but it’s important to go easy on the counter for a while anyhow. “The seal takes two or three weeks to cure, and during that time you shouldn’t scrub it, just wipe it off lightly with a damp cloth,” he says. “Of course, you never want to use scouring powder or other abrasives on an acrylic-seal painted counter, even after curing.”

But you don’t have to wait three or even two weeks to make changes if you don’t like the color — that’s one of the benefits of working with inexpensive paint in lieu of solid surfaces or even laminates. “Get a good look at the finish coat once it’s dry, because of course a lot of times paint on a counter won’t look the same as it did on the color swatch or in the photo you’re working from,” says Ingerson.

If you don’t like it, it’s back to Square Two. “Lightly sand the finish coat and then put on another coat of primer before painting it a different color,” says Ingerson.

And if you’re the type that sees something you like each time the new color palettes are issued, you can repeat the whole process every couple of months — it’s quick, it’s simple, and it’s ever so easy to change with the color trends.

Resources

Hirshfields paints, wallcovers and window fashions
www.hirshfields.com

Strong new home sales brighten housing picture | Cross River Realtor

Strong new home sales brighten housing picture

New housing construction is seen in Darnestown, Maryland, October 23, 2012. REUTERS/Gary Cameron

New U.S. single-family home sales surged in September to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years, further evidence the housing market recovery is gaining steam.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that new home sales increased 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted 389,000-unit annual rate — the fastest pace since April 2010, when sales were boosted by a tax credit for first-time home buyers.

Although sales in August were revised down to a 368,000-unit rate from the previously reported 373,000 units, the tenor of the report was relatively strong, with the median price of a new home rising 11.7 percent from a year ago.

The quickened pace in the housing sector is good news for the economy, but it remains one of the few bright spots.

“Housing is now a positive for the economy after years of being a drag, but it’s not enough to counteract the slowdown in manufacturing, which was the star,” said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance in Columbus, Ohio.

A second report showed only a modest pick-up in factory activity this month amid a darkening cloud of economic uncertainty at home and slower growth abroad.

The home sales data was the latest to show the housing market on the mend from its brutal collapse in 2006, which dragged the economy through its worst recession since the Great Depression.

Rising sales are pushing down the stock of unsold properties on the market, lifting prices and giving builders more confidence to take on new projects.

Demand for housing is being driven by a steady rise in the number of U.S. households, which had declined during the recession as financially strapped Americans moved in with family and friends. Modest job gains, increased job security and record low mortgage rates are encouraging many to seek home ownership.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has targeted housing as a channel to boost growth, announcing last month that it would buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for employment improved substantially.

The action helped push already low mortgage rates even lower. However, mortgage rates rose last week, dampening demand for loans to purchase homes during that period.

The Fed’s monetary policy committee on Wednesday stuck to its ultra accommodative stance even as it acknowledged that some parts of the economy, including the housing market, were looking a bit better.

MANUFACTURING SLUGGISH

While the Fed’s stimulus is supporting the consumption side of the economy, concerns about domestic fiscal policy and slowing global demand are hobbling the production side.

In a separate report, financial information firm Markit said its U.S. “flash,” or preliminary, Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector edged up to 51.3 this month from 51.1 in September. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A modest rise in output helped boost business conditions in the sector, which suffered its weakest quarter in three years during the July-to-September period.

But fewer orders from domestic clients and a fifth straight monthly decline in overseas demand for U.S. goods indicated manufacturing was acting as a drag on growth and employment, said Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson.

“Purchasing managers report that the key to the ongoing weakness remains uncertainty among customers in export markets, notably Europe and Asia,” he said.

The slowdown in factory activity is largely the result of fears that the U.S. Congress might fail to avoid the automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts that will suck about $600 billion out of the economy next year.

The housing data, however, showed no signs yet that the so-called fiscal cliff has crossed the radar of ordinary Americans.

The inventory of new homes on the market remained near record lows in September, although some economists worry a pick-up in building activity could undercut the market if sales do not rise significantly further.

At September’s sales pace it would take 4.5 months to clear the new homes on the market, the fewest since October 2005 and down from 4.7 months in August.

Sales last month were up in three of the four regions. They tumbled 37.3 percent in the Midwest.

Stiglitz: Obama, Romney still need to address housing market | South Salem Realtor

Stiglitz: Obama, Romney still need to address housing market

Columbia University Professor Joseph Stiglitz speaks during The Economist's Buttonwood Gathering in New York October 24, 2012. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

Columbia University Professor Joseph Stiglitz speaks during The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering in New York October 24, 2012.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz chided U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney for not seriously addressing the troubled U.S. housing market during the recent series of presidential debates.

The Columbia University economics professor said in an interview with Reuters TV that the two men have shied away from discussing the uneven U.S. housing market recovery because neither has concrete solutions for helping financially strapped homeowners and both are wary of offending the banks.

“I find that shocking” that neither has talked about housing market issues, Stiglitz told Reuters. “It is one of the things that precipitated the crisis. In some sense, they don’t want to offend the banks … . The banks have been a major problem to doing something about the problem.”

Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 2001, spoke less than two weeks before what could be one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history.

Romney was 1 percentage point ahead of Obama in Wednesday’s Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll in a race that is effectively a dead heat ahead of the November 6 vote.

The biggest weak spot in the domestic economy continues to be the housing market, despite signs of life in cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami – some of the hardest-hit areas during the financial crisis.

Miami home prices rose again in September, marking 10 consecutive months of appreciation, according to the 26,000-member MIAMI Association of REALTORS.

But there are many skeptics about how solid the recovery is and whether some uptick in home building has been the result of the Federal Reserve’s recent action to buy mortgage securities to reduce borrowing costs.

On Wednesday the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that last week, applications for new mortgages in the United States registered their biggest percentage decline in a year as rates for a 30-year mortgage rose 6 basis points to an average of 3.63 percent, the highest in a month.

SHRINKING MORTGAGE DEBT

The country is still way off from its long-term average rates in construction, housing sales and foreclosures.

About 3.8 million homes have been foreclosed on since the financial crisis began in 2008, according to CoreLogic, which also reports another 1.3 million homes are in some stage of foreclosure.

Stiglitz said any meaningful discussion about housing must include a plan for reducing the level of mortgage debt held by U.S. homeowners, given how far property values dropped during the crisis.

“As soon as you start talking about mortgages and the housing problem, both sides feel uncomfortable,” Stiglitz said.

“Obama hasn’t done enough and Romney has no real proposals,” and yet both candidates have raked in millions of dollars from the banks in campaign contributions, he said.

Stiglitz is not the only economist who argues that reducing mortgage debt is the surest way to boost the economy by providing financial relief to struggling homeowners.

The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that if Obama is re-elected, he will push to oust Edward DeMarco, the acting head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who has opposed using principal reductions to reduce debt obligations on mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The FHFA is the chief regulator of the two government-sponsored mortgage finance firms.

Others have promoted even more controversial measures to fix the housing market, like giving local governments the power to seize distressed mortgages through eminent domain so they can be restructured to enable homeowners to remain in their residences.

The idea of using eminent domain, which has been vigorously opposed by Wall Street bond investors, is being considered by San Bernardino County in California and a handful of other communities across the country.

Stiglitz said there are some good ideas about the restructuring of mortgages but neither candidate is addressing them.

One way or the other, the candidates could consider reduction in mortgage principal but “the banks don’t want to do it because they would be forced to recognize losses.”

New Home Sales: More Good News for the Housing Market | Bedford Hills Realtor

Sales of new single-family homes rose 5.7 percent in the month September, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000, according to data released today by the Commerce Department that gives continuing indications of a housing market recovery.

The rate of new home sales was 27 percent higher than the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 306,000 for the September 2011 housing market, according to the federal data. The average price of a new home sold in September was $292,400, down slightly from $293,900 for August but up from $255,400 for September of 2011.

September’s rate of new home sales is the highest since the home buyer tax credit expired in early 2012, according to an Eye on Housing blog published today by the National Association of Home Builders, or NAHB, a Washington, DC-based industry association.  The three-month moving average of new home sales has been steadily increasing for more than 12 months, fueling a growing consensus that the U.S. housing market has turned a corner.

The increase in sales is reducing the inventory of available new homes to a seven-year low, according to the NAHB, which reports the existing  supply of new homes will last for 4.5 months if sales continue at the current pace. The number of new homes that are completed and move-in ready remains at a record low of 38,000, according to the NAHB, which describes home builders as “cautious about building ahead of the market.” Tight credit conditions remain a drag on builders’ outlook for the housing market.

Median home prices jumped 11.7 percent from September 2011 to $242,400 in September 2012, according to the NAHB.  The group attributes the price increase primarily to buyers with equity and access to credit moving up to more expensive homes, rather than an overall increase in prices for the housing market.

The latest data also reveals significant regional variations in home prices, according to the NAHB. Over the third quarter, sales rose by 18.5 percent in the Northeast, but fell 8.2 percent in the Midwest.  New home sales rose 4.9 percent in the South and 4 percent in the West.

More housing market news is due Thursday when the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to report pending home sales for the month of September.

Canada’s Hot Housing Market Chills in September as Prices Drop | Pound Ridge Realtor

Canadian home prices in September fell the most in nearly two years, suggesting that recent changes to the country’s mortgage rules have reined in Canada’s once-hot housing market.

Canadian home prices cooled in September, according to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index.

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, or HPI,  fell 0.35% in September from August, with price drops observed in six of the 11 major Canadian cities watched by the index, including British Columbia’s Vancouver and Victoria markets, as well as Montreal.

That’s the largest price decline seen by the HPI since November 2010, when the  index fell 0.39%. Since then, the HPI has only seen four monthly declines, as historically low interest rates have spurred spending in Canada’s housing sector.

On an annualized basis, the HPI gained 3.6% in September, a slight drop from the previous month.

The federal government’s new rules that reduced the maximum amortization period of new government-insured mortgages from 30 to 25 years has “undoubtedly” contributed to cool the market, said National Bank Financial senior economist Marc Pinsonneault.

Still, existing home sales in Canada jumped 2.5% in September from August, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, igniting worries that the sector may be headed for a crash landing.

Those concerns should be tempered as prices are likely to steadily drop up to 5% by the end of next year, said Mr. Pinsonneault.

“It doesn’t mean a catastrophe, but it’s consistent with a soft landing in the sector,” he said.

The sector will continued to be closely monitored by the Bank of Canada, which is concerned that the state of household debt in Canada is worse than originially perceived, said Mazen Issa, Canada macro strategist at TD Securities. The ratio of household credit-market debt to disposable income hit a record high of 163.4% in the second quarter of 2012.

Housing prices picked up in August | Bedford Corners NY Real Estate

Housing prices rose in August as inventory continued to shrink across the nation, anther sign that the sector’s recovery is gathering steam.

Prices were up 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, while the 0.2 percent July increase was revised downward to 0.1 percent, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported Tuesday night, accidentally sent out ahead of Wednesday’s scheduled release.

Prices are up 4.7 percent in the past year. The index is 15.9 percent below its April 2007 peak and is about the same as the June 2004 level.

For the nine census divisions, monthly price changes in August ranged from a drop of 0.5 percent in the East South Central division to an increase of 3 percent in the Pacific.

The housing sector is on the mend and there is greater confidence that after years of struggles, the market has turned the corner.

Despite the housing sector’s primary role in the financial crisis and its drag on the recovery, neither President Obama nor Republican hopeful Mitt Romney has seized on the issue.

Obama hit on the topic a couple of times in the past week, calling on Congress to pass a bill that would provide homeowners who are under water on their mortgages an easier path to refinancing into lower-rate mortgages.

The Senate is scheduled to take up a bill when Congress returns after the election.

Rising prices, improved consumer and builder confidence, a four-year high in housing construction and historically low mortgage rates are bolstering the market’s gradual recovery.

However, the market still faces significant hurdles from continued fiscal uncertainties, lack of credit for builders and potential homebuyers, inaccurate appraisals and the number of seriously delinquent mortgages still in the system.

Dublin Home Prices Rose Most in Six Years | Chappaqua NY Real Estate

Dublin home prices rose the most in six years in September, the latest sign that Irish residential property prices are stabilizing after the country’s decade-long real estate bubble started to deflate in 2007.

Home prices in the Irish capital rose 2.4 percent from a month earlier, the biggest gain since August 2006, the Central Statistics Office said today. Residential property prices nationwide rose 0.9 percent in September, marking the third consecutive month of gains.

“Anecdotal evidence points to pent-up demand for family homes, especially in certain areas of Dublin,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Merrion Capital in Dublin. “While the figures are encouraging, I think it is too early to say whether house prices are on a steady upward rise.”

Irish property prices are gaining after homes lost half their value since a property crash pushed the nation to the brink of insolvency and the unemployment rate tripled. A lack of bank credit and the end of tax-relief measures for new buyers next year along with high unemployment will weigh on the housing market, according to McQuaid.

Ireland’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 14.8 percent in September. New Irish mortgages granted in the second quarter declined 16 percent to 524 million euros ($678 million) from the same period a year earlier, the Irish Banking Federation said in August.

“For homes in well-established parts of Dublin, demand is outstripping supply,” Aoife Brennan, head of research at Lisney, an Irish broker, said in a statement today. “In recent months, cash buyers have been making up about 40 percent of the Dublin market.”

The CSO data is compiled with mortgage data from lenders. Dublin home prices would show a bigger increase if cash purchases were included, according to Lisney.

Fed to Target Jobs and Housing Market | Armonk NY Real Estate

First, do no harm. That is at the top of the oath that every physician takes. But many pediatricians will prescribe antibiotics for a young child with a cold mainly to mollify the parents.

No matter that antibiotics can’t do anything for a viral infection. The parents want something, anything to be done to make their tot feel better (and let them get some sleep),so many pediatricians find themselves writing the scrip, which mainly was the path of least resistance.

Central bankers have followed the same position. The Federal Reserve Wednesday reaffirmed its plan to continue to pump liquidity in the financial system through securities purchases until the unemployment rate fell to levels considered normal. If normal is not the equivalent of 98.6 degrees farenheit, then it at least until the fever has broken.

There was a time when the Fed demurred that it could control much of anything, even money, which after all was something in its field of purview. After allegedly trying to target the growth of the money supply in the early 1980s, the Fed determined it couldn’t even define what constituted money in the then brave new world of money-market funds.

The Fed couldn’t manipulate things, as in the classic Al Hirschfeld illustration of “My Fair Lady” with George Bernard Shaw playing the puppeteer manipulating the character of Henry Higgins played by Rex Harrison, who in turn manipulated Eliza Doolittle played by Julie Andrews. So Paul Volcker, then the Fed chairman, gave up on targeting the money supply and sought to aim to keep inflation at bay.

As with pornography and the Supreme Court, the Fed may not have been able to define inflationary easy money, but it could recognize it. And a Princeton economics professor named Ben Bernanke put forth the proposition that, central banks may not know how to target so-called intermediate variables such as money supply with precision, they should get to the bottom line and target inflation. .

While inflation is everywhere and at all time a monetary phenomenon, as Milton Friedman taught, unemployment is the product of many economic forces. It is not simply the inverse of the price level, as the so-called Phillips Curve would posit. A little inflation won’t lower unemployment permanently as wages rise to meet higher prices and allow workers to catch up, leaving them on a proverbial treadmill.

Yet the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday reaffirmed its policy to continue to purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities from federal agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, continue to swap $45 billion of long-term Treasury securities for shorter-term holdings, and to keep its key short-term policy interest rate near zero through mid-2015, where it’s been since late 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis.

Somehow, three decades ago the Fed said the money supply was beyond its grasp; now it says it will target the unemployment rate. As if the decision to hire hinged on the cost or the availability of credit when businesses show little inclination to borrow. Cheap money can’t overcome the hurdles of uncertainties about taxes and regulations, which entrepreneurs readily say are their main concerns.

The Fed’s efforts are mainly evident in the housing market, not surprisingly since it is the sector the that caused the economy’s near-collapse and is the central bank’s focus as the most credit-sensitive part of the economy. Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported new-home sales rose again, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 units, some 27% higher than a year ago.

Housing will provide a positive for third-quarter gross domestic product growth, due to be reported Friday, instead of being a drain. Whether there is a durable recovery is open to question.

Housing analysts point to the backlog of foreclosures that finally is being cleared, which opens up the prospect of more home building, and with it jobs for builders and suppliers. And it can’t be denied the foreclosed properties being snapped up by investors and opportunistic home buyers invariably need fixing up, which has been a boon for the likes of Home Depot (ticker: HD) and Lowe’s (LOW.)

What’s not mentioned are the 10.2 million houses that are worth still less than the mortgages attached to them, according to Zillow.com’s reckoning at the end of the third quarter. While that’s down from over 11 million a year earlier, it still represents a lot of potential supply of homes that are likely to hit the market.

These are houses owned by Americans who did the right thing, meeting their mortgage obligations even though it economically disadvantageous. Moreover, they couldn’t sell their house without writing a check for the difference between the house’s price and the loan balance.

Higher property prices are closing that gap. While distressed sales are down, I see more homes up for sale now that market conditions have improved by owners who didn’t have to sell into a bear market. As any market technician will tell you, there can be overhead supply for sale once prices recover from a plunge. Amateur stock punters will wait until they get even to sell out; so it is with many homeowners.

For homeowners who got in near the top in the middle of the last decade, any chance to walk away will likely be taken. Remember, they had relatively little skin in the game given the tiny down payments required then.

Meanwhile, homeowners who bought years ago and are sitting on big profits and relatively limited mortgages — such as Baby Boomers looking to retire — may well see now as a propitious time, in traders’ parlance, to hit the bid (to accept the price offered by a prospective buyer.)

The Fed’s game plan appears to be to pump up the asset markets, both stocks and housing, in order to bring down unemployment. Whether that pays off remains to be seen.