Daily Archives: October 15, 2012

A Federal Fix for a Foreclosure Fiasco | Bedford Hills Realtor

The U.S. construction industry boomed through most of the 1920s as new office buildings, factories, warehouses and homes were built across the country.

A developing securities market, in which commercial bonds could be sold to finance construction, helped boost the housing surge. In 1928, however, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to stem speculation, especially in the stock market, and housing investment began to fall.

When the global economic crisis triggered widespread unemployment and bankruptcies, property owners’ abilities to make mortgage payments crumbled. This was particularly unsettling because many home mortgages were five-year agreements with a balloon payment due at the end. Banks had repeatedly renewed these contracts, adjusting interest rates to prevailing levels.

As home values rose, families had made frequent use of second mortgages with high interest rates to make improvements or to realize cash for other purposes. By 1932, renewals had vanished and second mortgages went unpaid.

This mortgage-finance system rapidly fell apart. Foreclosures multiplied, to 1,000 a day by late 1932. Assets underlying mortgage loans were deflating even as householders’ payments became unreliable. What was the government to do?

President Herbert Hoover, though reluctant to support big government programs, recognized the scale of this looming disaster. He proposed that Congress create a system of Federal Home Loan Banks, with 12 districts and a membership drawn from mortgage-holding institutions, including insurance companies, cooperative banks and homestead associations.

The core idea was that “bonds, guaranteed by mortgages accepted by the home loan system, will be offered to the public to increase the circulation of money,” the New York Times reported.

The 12 banks would loan as much as $125 million, initially supplied by the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, to distressed building-and-loan firms, taking in good mortgages as collateral. They then would securitize these holdings, thus restoring their cash accounts to fund further lending, increasing the country’s cash flow.

Opposition from the banking industry was immediate. The primary objective was that the loan-bank system “further intrudes the government into private business,” the New York Times reported. “There is no lack of funds at present for the use of home mortgage institutions. The bill would encourage unhealthy home building.” Even worse, the home-loan banks’ bonds couldn’t be sold.

Despite objections, House and Senate committees pushed the bill forward, and on July 22, 1932, Hoover signed the legislation. The new institution’s chairman, Franklin Fort, soon called for a mortgage holiday to stop foreclosures until the system could get up and running. Forty states confirmed their assent.

The Federal Home Loan Banks opened their ledgers on Oct. 15, though it was far from clear, as New York Representative Fiorello LaGuardia put it, whether “the influence of selfish institutions would predominate” over the needs of hard-pressed homeowners.

Hoover had tried his best, and Election Day was just three weeks ahead.

(Philip Scranton is a Board of Governors professor of the history of industry and technology at Rutgers University, Camden, and the editor-in-chief of Enterprise and Society. He writes “This Week in the Great Depression” for the Echoes blog. The opinions expressed are his own.)

Read more from Echoes, Bloomberg View’s economic history blog.

To contact the writer of this blog post: Philip Scranton at scranton@camden.rutgers.edu.

To contact the editor responsible for this blog post: Kirsten Salyer at ksalyer@bloomberg.net.

How The Housing Recovery Will Take Shape In Coming Months | Cross River Realtor

More good news on the home front.  The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates that home prices gained 1.6% in July compared to a year earlier. Every city tracked in the 20-City Composite has seen prices rise for three straight months and 16 of the 20 cities saw year-over-year increases. “The positive news in both the monthly and annual rates of change in home prices over the past few months signals a possible recovery in the housing market,” noted David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement.

Blitzer is the latest housing expert to toss around the “r” word.  Last week, for example, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales climbed about 9%  nationally in August from a year earlier. “The housing market is steadily recovering with consistent increases in both home sales and median prices,” explained Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR.

A growing pile of data indicates that that national-level recovery is solidifying into a reality (albeit one taking dramatically different shape on a more local level across the country). In addition to the Case-Shiller index and NAR’s sales report, new home construction — a forward-looking indicator of housing market activity — is making a comeback.

August single family home starts are up a hefty 29% since last year, according to the Census Bureau, despite missing analysts’ estimates. Home-builders’ confidence hit its highest level in more than six years this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Companies like Lennar, the second-largest home builder in the U.S., have been reporting surprisingly positive quarterly earnings thanks to an uptick in both orders and selling prices, according to my colleague Abram Brown. And Fannie Mae economists estimate that residential investment in 2012 will positively contribute to gross domestic product for the first time since 2005.

All that good news begs the question: what can we expect from housing in the coming months?

“We got to the point where housing couldn’t fall any farther,” notes John Canally, an investment strategist for LPL Financial. “Seven years into it and we are finally seeing a turnaround — but it will be modest at best.”

Canally likens the national-level housing market recovery to a “crooked U” in shape: home prices fell dramatically from 2006 through 2009, then bounced along an uneven bottom (falling a bit more following the expiration of the 2010 home buyer tax credits) for three years before finally beginning to turn upward in recent months.

Lauren Pressman, director of real estate at Aspiriant, also believes housing is making a U-shaped rebound. “It does seem that we are on solid ground for a recovery, or least no more continued depreciation in home prices in most markets,” says Pressman. Yet she doesn’t expect prices to rise dramatically any time soon, thanks to the lackluster jobs market, an overhang of distressed shadow inventory, and ongoing credit issues.

Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, has expectations that echo Pressman’s. “We think the bottom is going to be a long flat affair where home value appreciation over the next two to four years, depending on the market, will be in the 1-3%  range,” explains Humphries. Zillow’s formal home value projection (which includes all homes, listed for sale and off the market) entails a 1.1% rate of appreciation from June 2012 through June 2013. Humphries believes a healthy (non-bubble) 2.5-5% rate of appreciation won’t kick in until sometime between 2014 and 2016.

Yet housing inventory levels are down and new construction will take years to move through the development pipeline. Realtors in some markets, like Phoenix, Miami and San Francisco, even report bidding wars. The rapidly diminishing supply of sought-after inventory has some analysts making larger projections. NAR estimates prices of existing homes will rise 10% cumulatively over the next two years. Barclays equity research division warns that a possible shortage of quality inventory could even fuel a “dramatic, multi-year recovery in home prices that could drive prices up 5% to 7% per year through 2015,” according to my colleague Agustino Fontevecchia.

Still, a handful of factors arguably stand in the way. Down payments and tight lending standards remain huge hurdles for aspiring home buyers right now. So does job certainty.

And while the Federal Reserve’s recently announced plan to buy mortgage-backed securities will likely push mortgage rates lower, inspiring some prospective buyers to take the plunge into home ownership, other large policy issues still loom. If the so-called fiscal cliff, in which the Bush tax cuts expire and automatic spending cuts kick in, is realized at the end of this year, it could hamper home sales and new construction starts.  If economic woes worsen in Europe, the consequent downward pressure to the U.S. economy could impact housing similarly. The same could be said of spikes in inflation or energy prices

So how will this housing recovery take shape? It will be a localized recovery in which some markets clock bigger gains than others.  Markets like Phoenix and Miami will continue to log notable gains; markets like Chicago and Atlanta will continue to struggle as distressed inventory filters out into the market. Overall, however, many markets are stabilizing and beginning to reflect positive growth. That growth will translate into a humble increase in the annualized rate of national home price appreciation for 2012. In other words, the very worst of the housing recession is finally behind us but the recovery ahead is likely a long one.

Pending home sales retreat after hitting 2-yr high | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Pending home sales retreated in August after hitting a two-year high in the previous month, a trade group reported Thursday. . The pending-home-sales index fell to 99.2 from a upwardly revised 101.9 in July, the National Association of Realtors said The NAR initially said the July index was at 101.7. “The performance in month-to-month contract signings has been uneven with ongoing shortages of lower prices inventory in much of the country,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the NAR. Compared to the same period in 2011, pending home sales were up 10.7%, marking the 15th straight month of year-on-year gains. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, and an index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001.

Mitt Romney’s housing policy: GOP candidate offers ideas on mortgages | Bedford NY Real Estate

Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign made the odd decision to release a new policy document about housing issues last Friday in the late afternoon. The Friday afternoon “news dump” is when you put things out that you think will reflect poorly on you, knowing that reporters will give them scant attention. The housing paper was doubly-obscured, first by the weekend and second by release of Romney’s tax documents the same day.

Burying housing policy was a strange choice for the Romney campaign, because housing policy (foreclosures, mortgage disasters, etc.) has been a giant failure for the Obama administration, and one where Romney could easily score substantive points.

Having spent my weekend perusing the Romney position paper, I’m prepared to offer an explanation for why they buried it: It sucks.

Faced with the opportunity to take a nice big swing at the piñata of Obama-era foreclosures, Romney whiffed, offering a “plan” chock of platitudes, bromides, and non sequiturs. Why the campaign preferred dumping it out when they thought nobody would notice to simply not releasing it is a mystery. But perhaps the greater mystery is why they couldn’t stir themselves to write a policy that made sense.

The context here is the epic failure of the Obama administration to do anything of sufficient scale to address the foreclosures roiling the nation. Foreclosures aren’t just unpleasant to the families that experience them, but also have significant knock-on consequences for the rest of the community and consequently constitute secondary shocks to a country already devastated by a severe recession.

In 2009, when the administration was at the peak of its powers—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac nationalized by the federal government, banks desperately in need of federal money, the president popular and backed by large congressional majorities—President Obama didn’t think addressing the issue was important. His primary premise was the not-unreasonable one that the best solution to housing pain was overall economic recovery. A secondary, less-reasonable premise was that restoring the “confidence” of the banking sector was a key element of broad economic recovery. So at the margin the administration wasn’t interest in diverting federal time and money to housing problem, and discouraged solutions that would help indebted homeowners at the cost of hurting the very banks that TARP was supposed to prop up.

Later programs such as HAMP and HARP were hamstrung by extreme political paranoia about delivering aid to “unworthy” borrowers. So while the programs (especially HARP) have done some good, the policy has been to specifically not target the most severe needs. Bigger plans released this year would do more, but are being blocked by a holdover Fannie/Freddie regulator whom the administration didn’t replace when it had the chance.

To all this, Team Romney has essentially nothing to say. One of their five bullet points is that we need to improve the job market. Another is to sell government-owned foreclosed property to private investors, which is already happening. A third is to encourage short-sales as an alternative to foreclosure, which the administration has been doing for years now through various initiatives that seem to be bearing some fruit.

In terms of something the parties actually disagree about, Romney proposes to replace the Dodd-Frank Act with “sensible regulation.” If we repeal Dodd-Frank and its tools for orderly liquidation, what would we do instead? Well, the last plank of the Romney plan argues that “the Romney-Ryan plan will completely end ‘too-big-to-fail’ by reforming the GSEs,” i.e. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This is a real head-scratcher. Not only does Romney not say how he would reform Fannie and Freddie, he doesn’t even begin to try to explain how this would end the “too-big-to-fail” dilemma—presumably because it wouldn’t. Fannie and Freddie may have exacerbated the extent of the housing bubble, but this has literally no bearing on the question of whether or not the economy can survive the liquidation of a diversified mega-bank. If a bank goes bust under Romney’s plan—what happens? Nobody knows. Presumably something “sensible,” but Fannie and Freddie have nothing to do with it. Conservatives have long been rightly critical of Fannie and Freddie, and accurately warned that the free lunch they seemed to create for homeownership might someday prove quite costly to the taxpayer. But retreading a timeless conservative argument about the risks of federal loan guarantees, no matter how valid, isn’t a credible response to too-big-to-fail private banks or problems in today’s mortgage lending.

Romney’s housing plan is depressing. Faced with a clear policy area in which Obama has not succeeded, his opponent came out with a seven-page white paper so embarrassing the campaign dropped it on a Friday night.

This housing issue is the entire 2012 economic debate in miniature. There’s stuff to like in the Obama administration’s record, but there’s simply no denying that overall economic performance has been bad and the president deserves his share of the blame. But rather than giving us a pragmatic turnaround guy, the Republicans are offering a copy-and-paste agenda that could have been rolled out any time in the past 20 years and has nothing to do with today’s specific problem

Many High-End New York Apartments Have Modest Tax Rates | Bedford Corners Realtor

Yet despite its sublime finishes, refined pedigree and nosebleed prices, the residential portion of that Manhattan building is officially valued by the city, for tax purposes, at only $332 per square foot. According to the Miller Samuel appraisal firm, the average price per square foot for apartments sold there over the past 18 months has been $7,813.

The remarkably low official figure is the result of a state law dating from decades ago that requires the city to calculate the value of condominiums and co-ops by using as comparable properties rental buildings, instead of apartment sales. At the tippy top of the market, populated by $20 million, $30 million, $40 million, even $88 million apartments, real estate experts say that truly comparable rental buildings essentially do not exist.

As a result, the owners of many of the highest-end apartments pay a far smaller percentage of their apartments’ sales value than other condo and co-op owners pay. So despite a boom in the sale of stratospherically expensive apartments in recent years, the city is unable to truly cash in.

“The highest-value ones are going to tend to be the hardest to line up,” said George Sweeting, deputy director of the city’s Independent Budget Office. Their resulting effective tax rates, he continued, “will be extremely low, even by the standards of the city.”

According to the Independent Budget Office, the overall city valuation for condos and co-ops is only about 20 percent of what it would be were the city allowed to use comparable sales. That is a striking discount, but one that shrivels in comparison with the market’s upper echelons, which means the percentage of the sales value that those apartments pay in taxes shrivels right along with it.

In a study of 2010 nationwide property tax rates, the average homeowner paid a median of 1.14 percent of home value that year, according to the Tax Foundation, a research group. In Manhattan, that figure was 0.78 percent. For the $88 million apartment at 15 Central Park West, 0.78 percent would be $686,000. But this year, the property taxes due on that penthouse were $59,000.

The relatively low tax bill was mainly due to its valuation, but the owners of that penthouse — the financier Sanford I. Weill sold it to a trust controlled by Ekaterina Rybolovleva, the daughter of a Russian billionaire — were also helped by a program called 421a, which gives developers big tax breaks for a certain number of years that they can pass along to condo buyers, in exchange for which the developers build or help finance affordable housing.

But even without the 421a abatement, the bill for the penthouse would have been only $145,000.

An apartment at the Plaza Hotel that sold for $48 million last year is valued by the city at $1.7 million. A condo at 80 Columbus Circle that sold for $30.55 million last summer is valued at $2 million. And the $88 million apartment is valued at $2.97 million, or just 3.4 percent. The impact on city revenue needs then ripples down.

“If a certain kind of property is systematically undervalued, another kind of property has to pick up the slack,” said Andrew Hayashi, a property tax expert at the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University.

The state law mandating the use of rental data has been on the books since the 1980s, when the market in the city was a very different place. Manhattan had more rent regulation, many fewer condos and lots of co-op conversions.

A 2006 city report said tying the value of co-ops and condos to rentals was expected to keep an apartment’s official value — and, thus, its property taxes — from rising too quickly, because rent regulation kept rental values relatively stable.

Today, to find a condo’s or co-op’s comparable rental cousin, the Finance Department looks at factors like age, location and size. Older buildings, even the grandest, often have a greater value discrepancy than new condos because older rentals are more likely to have at least some rent-stabilized unit; this means that the taxes on those properties are generally lower.

But for any truly lavish building, finding a comparable rental is a challenge. One of the rental buildings used to find the value of 15 Central Park West, for example, is 145 West 67th Street — a very tall, but otherwise unremarkable, building.

“We understand that the requirement by state law to ignore sales prices makes an already complex property tax system even more confusing for property owners, which raises questions of equity within the system,” Owen Stone, a spokesman for the Finance Department, said in an e-mail. “We are always looking for ways to make things more transparent.”

Property tax experts say that from time to time, some effort is made to rethink the way apartments are valued. But changes can be made only by the State Legislature, and the technical and political pressures tend to overwhelm the cause, which then is quietly put on a shelf.

“It’s not so easy to go and change one screw,” said Ana Champeny, a supervising analyst at the Independent Budget Office. “Potentially, you have to redo the whole system.”

These property taxes, of course, are not paid in a vacuum. The city does receive a transfer tax every time a property is sold, as well as a mortgage recording tax — though many high-priced homes are bought with cash. And while the property taxes on mansions in the sky may be a relatively low percentage of sales value, they are still substantial.

A spokeswoman for Extell, which is developing the luxury market’s hottest ticket of the moment, One57, where two apartments are under contract for at least $90 million, said the project would contribute over 1,000 construction jobs and hundreds of permanent jobs to the city.

As it happens, Extell has also applied for 421a tax abatements for One57.

But if the property taxes on these luxury apartments were to rise, would it even make a difference in sales to the superrich?

“I think you’d choke off that market,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.

Mr. Miller said that in some instances, exceptionally high carrying costs had tugged down prices and slowed the pace of sales, even in apartments that cost tens of millions of dollars.

“The logic was that the high end of the market doesn’t really care if the monthly charges are high; it’s more readily absorbed than on the lower end, and that turned out not to be true,” Mr. Miller said. “The conventional wisdom was, ‘Ah, the wealthy don’t care!’ But of course they do.”

Listing inventories down in most markets | Mount Kisco NY Real Estate

Editor’s note: This report is based on Realtor.com’s September 2012 Real Estate Trend Data Report. The report covers 146 U.S. metros, and includes single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops.

The number of homes for sale nationwide continued to fall in September from a year ago, Realtor.com reported today. The 17.77 percent drop to 1.8 million units continues a trend that’s played out in every month this year so far.

For-sale inventory dropped on a year-over-year basis in all but three of the 146 markets tracked by Realtor.com in its report.

Nationwide, median list prices were up 0.78 percent from August to September, to $191,500 and have held steady throughout 2012 — another sign that the housing recovery is solidifying, the report noted. However, median list prices are still 23.37 percent off their early 2007 high of $249,900.

Annual change in listings, inventory and median list price

Data pointPercent change from year ago 2012September 2012
Number of listings-17.77%1.80 million
Median age of inventory (days)-11.21%95
Median list price+0.78%$191,500

Source: Realtor.com

Article continues below

The number of homes for sale nationwide was down 40 percent from a September 2007 high of 3.1 million units. The median age of inventory was also down 11.21 percent on a yearly basis to 95 days. However, that number represents a 4.4 percent increase from August.


Source: Realtor.com

As was the case last in August, California markets continue to dominate a top 10 chart of markets that have experienced the largest year-over-year drop in inventory. Tight inventories and lending standards are two of the California housing market’s biggest challenges to full recovery, said Leslie Appleton-Young, California Association of Realtor’s vice president and chief economist.

Stockton-Lodi, Calif., topped the chart with a 63.04 percent drop in inventory between September 2011 and September 2012. Sacramento, Oakland, and Riverside-San Bernardino (Calif.) rounded out the top four, in order, with drops in inventory of 60.26 percent, 57.14 percent and 42.57 percent, respectively.

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett (No. 9 at a 38.34 percent drop) and Atlanta (No. 10 at a 37.15 percent drop) were the only two metros on the list not in California.

Top 10 markets for annual inventory declines, September 2012

Percent change
-63.04%
-60.26%
-57.14%
-42.57%
-41.97%
-41.26%
-38.92%
-38.39%
-38.34%
-37.15%

Source: Realtor.com

California metros also made up the majority of the top 10 metros experiencing the largest year-over-year percentage median list price increases. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, Calif., topped the list at a year-over-year jump of 32.05 percent in its median list price. San Francisco (No. 3), San Jose (No. 4), Sacramento (No. 6), Oakland (No. 7), and Riverside-San Bernardino (No. 9) were the other Golden State metros on the list.


Source: Realtor.com

Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz. (No. 2 at 26.66 percent), Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. (No. 5 at 14.98 percent), Boise City, Idaho (No. 7 at 13.33 percent) and Atlanta (No. 10 at 11.94 percent) were the non-California metros on the top list for the largest year-over-year median list price increase.

Top 10 metros for annual median list price increases, September 2012

Percent change
32.05%
26.66%
18.11%
17.50%
14.98%
14.23%
13.97%
13.33%
12.56%
11.94%

Source: Realtor.com